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The State Of MLBTR

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As the founder of MLB Trade Rumors, I’d like to take a brief moment to update you on the current state of the website.  I realize that with the distress of COVID-19, the situation of a baseball website is the last thing on your mind, so I’ll keep it short.

Like most small businesses, mine has been hit hard by the coronavirus.  Traffic is down due to MLB’s delayed season, and I don’t expect our typical trade deadline bump or a normal 2020-21 offseason.  Ad rates have plummeted as well.  As you know, MLBTR is free and entirely supported by banner advertising.  While I’ve had to suspend some interesting but non-essential projects, in the long-term I think MLBTR will be fine.

You may have noticed that our overall post volume has decreased due to the lack of baseball news, and we’ve increased our original posts to fill the void.  When player transactions and related rumors start back up, we’ll be covering that fully as we have over the last 15 years.  Until then, we’ll continue experimenting with different topics both current and historical to create interesting reading material.  Be sure to let us know what you’d like to see.  Also, please note that the advent of weekday videos on MLBTR is not any kind of “pivot to video” and does not replace posts or result in fewer written posts on the site.  Video is something we decided to try out this year, as the format may suit certain content better than the written word.  We hope you’ll check out our YouTube channel and subscribe, but if it’s not for you, that’s OK.

I appreciate so many of you continuing to visit the site every day.  If you’d like to help, just keep visiting, commenting, and retweeting.  And be sure to tell your friends about MLBTR and share the link with them.  Thanks for reading!

Robinson Cano May Not Be Done Yet

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Second baseman Robinson Cano is one of the most successful major leaguers of the past couple decades. If you go back to 2005, the season in which he debuted with the Yankees, he ranks sixth out of position players in fWAR (57.7). Only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, Adrian Beltre and Albert Pujols have bettered Cano in that category. There’s more than one Hall of Famer in that group. Utley’s the lone second baseman there who was more valuable than Cano, who has slashed .302/.352/.490 (125 wRC+) with 324 home runs over 9,264 plate appearances as a member of the Yanks, Mariners and Mets.

The 37-year-old Cano could hang it up right now and go down as one of the most accomplished second basemen ever. But he has four seasons and $96MM left on the 10-year, $240MM contract he signed with the Mariners entering 2014, so that’s not going to happen. That may be to the chagrin of the Mets, who have gotten surprisingly little from Cano since they landed him in December 2018. He came over as part of a deal that also netted the Mets then-dominant reliever Edwin Diaz (we covered his struggles last week) and cost the team a pair of well-regarded prospects in outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-hander Justin Dunn.

Perhaps the greatest success of Cano’s career has come in New York, but a return to his old stomping grounds didn’t prove beneficial for the eight-time All-Star last season. Rather, Cano endured a subpar, injury-shortened season in Year 1 as a member of the Mets, with whom he batted .256/.307/.428 (93 wRC+) with 13 home runs and 0.8 fWAR in 423 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, it was just the second time that Cano posted below-average offensive numbers in a season.

Considering what they gave up for Cano and the amount of money they still owe him, the Mets can only hope last season was an aberration – he was, after all, a great offensive player as recently as 2018 (a PED suspension-shortened campaign, granted). The question now is whether there’s any hope for Cano to bounce back. There just might be. Cano was a far better hitter last year as it went along. He managed a paltry .646 OPS in the first half of the season and then saw that number skyrocket to a much more Cano-like .880 thereafter, albeit over fewer trips to the plate (258 in the first half, 165 in the second). And there wasn’t really anything alarming in Cano’s batted-ball profile – he actually made more hard contact than he has for most of his career, according to FanGraphs. His hard-hit percentage (46.0) ranked in the game’s 87th percentile, per Statcast, which also pegged his average exit velocity (90.8 mph) in the 82nd percentile. That doesn’t sound like someone who’s done, though Cano’s expected weighted on-base average (.328, compared to a real wOBA of .309) fell well shy of his typical output.

Had Cano actually finished with a .328 wOBA in 2019, he’d have been in close company with fellow second basemen such as Adam Frazier, Hanser Alberto and Cesar Hernandez. Nobody there’s a true standout, but they were all around the 2.o-fWAR mark. That’s not the type of production the Mets wanted when they made the Cano trade, but if he’s at least an average player in 2020 (for the sake of our own sanity, let’s assume there will be a season), it could help the club make a return to the playoffs after a three-year drought.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

This Date In Transactions History: From Cleveland To Cincinnati

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We’ve reached the 14-year anniversary of a pivotal Reds-Indians trade that was hardly a headline-grabber at the time. It was on April 7, 2006, that the Reds acquired 24-year-old second baseman Brandon Phillips from the Indians for a player to be named later. That player turned into right-hander Jeff Stevens, whom Cincinnati sent to Cleveland in June of that year.

Phillips entered the pro ranks as a high draft selection of the Montreal Expos, who picked him in the second round (No. 57) in 1999. He was later part of a Montreal-Cleveland deal that had a massive impact, as the Expos sent Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Lee Stevens to the Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew. Sizemore and Lee became stars in Cleveland, but Phillips didn’t amount to much there in 462 combined plate appearances from 2002-05.

Phillips spent the majority of his final season as a member of the organization with the Indians’ then-Triple-A team in Buffalo, where he put up a .734 on-base plus slugging percentage. Unimpressed, the Indians and former general manager Mark Shapiro soon gave up on Phillips. That proved to be a mistake, at least when you consider what they received for Phillips. Stevens never even pitched for the franchise, instead throwing a combined 37 1/3 innings with the Cubs from 2009-11 after the Indians traded him as part of a deal for utilityman Mark DeRosa (notably, that transaction also saw Chris Archer head to Chicago). While DeRosa was effective for the Indians in ’09, that was his lone season with the club. The team later sent him to to St. Louis in a trade for reliever Chris Perez.

Perez had his moments in Cleveland, but they don’t match up to Phillips’ impact in Cincinnati. “Dat Dude” was a productive Red from the jump and eventually became a franchise icon – someone who was instrumental in breaking their 14-year playoff drought in 2009. The Reds went on to earn two more playoff berths while Phillips was in their uniform. His long tenure with the franchise concluded in February 2017 with a trade to the Braves, but not before Phillips racked up a laundry list of personal accomplishments. As a member of the Reds, Phillips made three All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves and batted .279/.325/.429 with 191 home runs, 194 stolen bases and 28.1 wins above replacement over 6,899 plate appearances. He’s currently eighth in Reds history in games played (1,614) and PA and 10th in hits (1,774), runs scored (877) and total bases (2,722), to name just a few key statistics.

Phillips, now 38 years old, hasn’t played in the majors since 2018. But he’ll always be a part of the Reds’ rich history, and his acquisition was no doubt one of the shining moments of former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky’s stint. It’s also another bit of proof that you shouldn’t sleep on any transaction, no matter how minor it may seem at the time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Prospect Faceoff: May v. Sanchez

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There is no question that Marlins right-hander Sixto Sanchez and Dodgers righty Dustin May are among the most promising pitching prospects in baseball. Outlets such as MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs each rank them as two of the 50 best prospects in the game. The only site that puts much of a gap between the two is FanGraphs, which has May at No. 14 and Sanchez 48th. They’re otherwise neck and neck – MLB.com places Sanchez 22nd and May 23rd, while BA also gives Sanchez a bit of an edge (16th to May’s 20th).

As we continue comparing the two, it’s worth taking a look at their professional careers to this point. Now 22 years old, the 6-foot-6, 180-pound May joined the Dodgers as a third-round pick in 2016. His quality repertoire consisting of a fastball that can reach the upper 90s, a cutter and a curveball has helped him mow down the competition so far. He got to the Triple-A level for the first time last season and thrived over 27 1/3 innings, notching a 2.30 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 2.96 BB/9 and a 60 percent groundball rate. That’s obviously not a large sample of work (just five starts), but it was enough to convince the Dodgers to promote May to the majors on the final day of July.

How much time May will spend with the Dodgers in 2020 (if there is a season) remains to be seen, but the man known as “Gingergaard” made a compelling case that he’s a major league-caliber hurler during his initial MLB action. May totaled 14 appearances (four starts) and logged a 3.63 ERA/2.90 FIP with 8.31 K/9, a stunningly low 1.3 BB/9 and a respectable 44.4 percent grounder rate across 34 2/3 innings. Maybe he won’t realize his potential this year, but May has “All-Star, mid-rotation” upside, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote in February.

The Dominican-born Sanchez, 21, has been a much-needed ray of hope for the Marlins since he joined the franchise in a blockbuster trade in February 2019. Sanchez was the headlining prospect the Marlins received from the division-rival Phillies for star catcher J.T. Realmuto, and continued to boost his stock in his first year with the Miami organization. He carved up the competition during his first try in Double-A, where he recorded a 2.53 ERA/2.69 FIP, struck out almost a hitter per inning, walked fewer than two per nine and induced grounders  at a 47.9 percent clip in 103 frames. Sanchez can throw very hard, even reaching triple digits on occasion, though Longenhagen cautions that his “fastball plays beneath its velocity right now because it has sub-optimal underlying components.” There are also concerns about Sanchez’s injury history, but thanks in part to great secondary offerings and plus command, there’s front-of-the-rotation potential if he stays healthy.

Sanchez and May certainly count as a pair of the most exciting young pitchers in the game. But if you can only take one, which one would you choose? (Poll link for app users)

Trade History: Reds’ Dick Williams

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Dick Williams has spent more than 15 years in the Reds organization, working in a variety of roles on both the business and baseball ops side of the club prior to being named assistant GM in 2014. A year later, Williams was promoted to general manager as former GM Walt Jocketty ascended to president of baseball operations. At the time of the promotions, though, Jocketty made clear that his days as the club’s top decision-maker were numbered, plainly stating that the much younger Williams was being “groomed” for that post.

[Related: Dick Williams discusses his path to a front office in MLBTR’s College Series]

A year later, in December 2016, that became official when Jocketty moved into an advisory role and formally handed baseball operations autonomy over to Williams, who was named president of baseball operations. Let’s take a look at his track record since that promotion…

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

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How do MLBTR readers feel about the work of Williams? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)

Curious to look back on additional GMs and their trade histories? We’ve already polled on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Padres GM A.J. Preller, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander, ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski and Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

Shohei Ohtani Close To Throwing Off Mound

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Angels right-hander/slugger Shohei Ohtani has progressed to long tossing from a distance of 180 feet and is following those sessions up with higher-intensity throws from 60 feet, pitching coach Mickey Callaway told reporters on Tuesday (Twitter links via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). The next step for the righty would be to throw off a mound, and while Callaway didn’t put a specific timetable on when that might happen, he noted that it should be “soon.”

Ohtani, 25, hasn’t pitched in a game since Sept. 2, 2018, due to Tommy John surgery that wiped out his entire 2019 campaign — at least on the mound. He, of course, was able to return as the team’s primary designated hitter for much of the season and turned in a generally excellent year, hitting .286/.343/.505 with 18 home runs and a dozen steals in 425 plate appearances.

To this point, it seems as though things are generally on track with expectations put forth just prior to camp. At the time, it was believed that the Angels had been targeting a mid-May return to the big league rotation for the two-way star, and a move to mound sessions in the near future seemingly keeps him on that timeline. With fellow righty Griffin Canning resuming a throwing program after a UCL scare of his own, the Angels are trending in the direction of a full-strength rotation featuring Ohtani, Canning, Andrew Heaney, Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy to begin the year.

Ohtani has still started just 10 games in his MLB career, although the 51 2/3 innings he tossed were quite promising. During that time, he logged a 3.31 ERA with 11.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9 and a 39.2 percent ground-ball rate. Ohtani also turned in a stellar 15.2 percent swinging-strike rate that trailed only Max Scherzer, Chris Sale and Patrick Corbin among starters with at least 50 innings pitched.

The Cardinals’ Outfield Carousel

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No doubt you’ve heard it said that the Cardinals have gone through quite a few outfielders in recent years. That puts it mildly. The organization is now awaiting the readiness of top prospect Dylan Carlson, with hopes that he’ll not only blossom into a star but bring some long-term stability.

Churning through players isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Every deal is an opportunity, of course. But it’s quite remarkable how much turnover the Cards have had over the past five seasons. Teams play around 1400 innings a year … over seven thousand frames have been played in that span by the St. Louis team, but no single outfielder has come close to appearing in half of them.

Here’s a log of the players who have come and gone (or who remain on hand). They’re ordered by the number of innings played in the outfield, with all statistical accumulations provided for only the seasons in question (2015-19).

Dexter Fowler (2017-19)

  • Originally acquired: Signed five-year, $82.5MM free agent contract
  • Output: 2,720 1/3 total OF innings; .233/.335/.410 (97 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Still on roster

Stephen Piscotty (2015-17)

  • Originally acquired: 2012 1st round draft pick
  • Output: 2,588 2/3 total OF innings; .268/.346/.438 (109 OPS+)
  • Signed six-year, $33.5MM extension
  • Outcome: Traded to Athletics for Yairo Munoz, Max Schrock

Tommy Pham (2015-18)

Randal Grichuk (2015-17)

Marcell Ozuna (2018-19)

Harrison Bader (2017-19)

  • Originally acquired: 2015 3rd round draft pick
  • Output: 2,013 total OF innings; .236/.320/.393 (90 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Still on roster

Jason Heyward (2015)

Jose Martinez (2016-19)

Matt Holliday (2015-16)

Brandon Moss (2015-16)

  • Originally acquired: Acquired from Indians for Rob Kaminsky
  • Output: 586 2/3 total OF innings; .231/.311/.466 (106 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Signed with Royals as free agent

Tyler O’Neill (2018-19)

  • Originally acquired: Acquired from Mariners for Marco Gonzales
  • Output: 552 1/3 total OF innings; .258/.307/.454 (101 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Still on roster

Jon Jay (2015)

  • Originally acquired: 2006 2nd round draft pick
  • Output: 496 2/3 total OF innings; .210/.306/.257 (56 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Traded to Padres for Jedd Gyorko and cash

Peter Bourjos (2015)

Jeremy Hazelbaker (2016) –

  • Originally acquired: Signed to minor-league deal as free agent
  • Output: 402 1/3 total OF innings; .235/.295/.480 (104 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Claimed by Diamondbacks

Yairo Munoz (2018-19)

Magneuris Sierra (2017)

Kolten Wong (2016)

  • 106 total OF innings
  • Still on roster (primarily INF)

Tommy Edman (2019)

  • 82 2/3 total OF innings
  • Still on roster (primarily INF)

Lane Thomas (2019)

  • 81 2/3 total OF innings
  • Still on roster

Randy Arozarena (2019)

Mark Reynolds (2015)

  • 42 total OF innings
  • Departed via free agency

Matt Adams (2017)

Adolis Garcia (2018)

  • 30 1/3 total OF innings
  • Traded to Rangers for cash considerations

Others receiving OF playing time:

MLBTR Poll: The Arizona Plan

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Less than a month ago, Major League Baseball was hemming and hawing over whether to halt Spring Training. Now, the league is at least considering a rather wild approach to the 2020 season: holding all contests in the Phoenix area for at least a portion of the campaign. If you haven’t read up on this yet, you can do so here and here.

With its statement this morning, MLB has made clear that this is just one of several concepts under consideration. Perhaps this one will fade — at least, the notion of it launching as soon as May — as the situation continues to evolve.

I’ll be sharing some further thoughts on this in an MLBTR YouTube video, which you can look out for later today. But generally, it seems entirely appropriate for the league to make its best efforts to craft a plan to get the game going again. It’s just … is this one even a reasonable starting point?

Let’s see how MLBTR readers feel at this early stage (response order randomized; poll link for app users):

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

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