Teoscar Hernandez

Roberts: Andy Pages To Continue Seeing Regular Playing Time

By Steve Adams | May 20, 2025 at 9:28am CDT

The Dodgers activated veteran outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the injured list yesterday and optioned James Outman to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Hernandez’s return won’t cut into the playing time of hot-hitting 24-year-old Andy Pages, it seems. Manager Dave Roberts told the Dodgers beat last night that Pages is “an everyday player” who’ll see only occasional off-days (including last night).

It would indeed be hard to cut into Pages’ playing time based on his performance of late. The former top prospect posted a league-average .248/.305/.407 slash (100 wRC+) as a rookie but has raked at a .280/.333/.494 clip with nine home runs in just 177 plate appearances in 2025. He and Hernandez have been far and away the team’s two most productive outfielders this year.

There are some reasons to take Pages’ breakout with a grain of salt. He hasn’t made substantial changes to an approach at the plate that still seems like it could use work. Pages fanned in 24.4% of his plate appearances as a rookie and walked at just a 6.5% clip. Both marks were worse than league average. In 2025, he’s slightly pared back the strikeouts (23.2%) but has seen his walk rate dip as well (5.6%). The league-average strikeout rate is 22%; for walks, it’s 8.7%.

Pages is making more contact on pitches within the strike zone, jumping from a slightly below-average 84.8% last year to a healthier 88.2% in 2025. (League-average hovers between 85% and 85.5%.) However, he’s also chasing off the plate more frequently this season and swinging more often in general. Of the 165 qualified hitters in Major League Baseball, only 15 have swung more often than Pages, who’s offered at just under 54% of the pitches he sees. Hitters can certainly succeed with an aggressive approach — Pete Crow-Armstrong swings more often than any hitter in the National League — but Pages has well below-average quality of contact.

None of this is to say Pages can’t or won’t be a solid hitter — but continuing on at a pace that’s about 30% better than average seems unlikely without some refinement to his approach or an uptick in hard contact. Even if he’s “only” around 10% better than average at the plate for the rest of the season, he’s a clear everyday player, given his glovework in center field and his plus speed.

With Pages locked into regular or near-regular reps in center field and Hernandez back to his post in right field, the Dodgers will look to a combination of Michael Conforto and Tommy Edman in left field. Edman figures to be out there on days that Hyeseong Kim gets the nod at second base, although Kim has also played some center field and pushed Pages to left field. Broadly speaking, left field will be handled in more piecemeal fashion.

The 32-year-old Conforto, signed to a one-year deal worth $17MM this offseason, has struggled immensely thus far but still seems like he’ll get the lion’s share of playing time for now. Both that contract and some positive traits that run counter to his bleak .168/.304/.273 slash through 171 plate appearances should net him a bit more leash. Conforto is walking at a huge 13.5% clip, and he’s averaging 91 mph off the bat while putting 47% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or greater. He’s not expanding the zone all that often, and his contact rate within the zone is nearly 86%.

At some point, the results will need to be there for him to continue getting chances, but it’s understandable right now if the Dodgers are convinced better days are ahead. Conforto mashed at a .273/.329/.529 pace in a near identical playing time sample of 173 plate appearances following the 2024 trade deadline, which helped him secure that contract in the first place.

Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Edman, Hernandez, Ohtani

By Nick Deeds | May 17, 2025 at 8:17pm CDT

Longtime face of the Dodgers’ franchise and future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw is making his 2025 season debut against the Angels this evening, and ahead of the start of his 18th season in the majors the veteran spoke to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic about his drive to continue his playing career.

“I don’t really understand that question,” Kershaw said, as relayed by Ardaya, when asked why he’s continuing his career. “People ask me that. Why not just ride off into the sunset? I’m 37. I have a long time ahead of me. Baseball is fun. So why not? As of today, that’s my answer, yeah.”

Kershaw, of course, has flirted with the possibility of retirement from time to time over the years. After winning a second World Series championship with the Dodgers last year and being forced to end his season in August due to injuries that eventually required surgery on his left plantar plate and to repair a torn left meniscus over the winter. He’s been rehabbing ever since, and enters this year playing on a one-year deal that guarantees him just $7.5MM, although incentives based on starts made and time on the active roster could bring that total up to $15MM by the end of the season depending on his health.

The southpaw is already a slam-dunk Hall of Famer and one of the greatest pitchers of the 21st century, but there are some career milestones left for him to conquer. For one thing, he’s 32 strikeouts away from being the 20th pitcher in MLB history to reach 3,000 for his career. The 257 1/3 innings he’d still need in order to join the 3,000 innings club isn’t a goal he can reach this season, but after pitching 258 innings total in 2022 and ’23 it’s not hard to imagine him reaching that milestone before his 40th birthday should he decide to continue his career for that long.

One other motivator for Kershaw could be that neither of his World Series rings have come with the full experience: the Dodgers couldn’t hold a parade in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and Kershaw was not on the field with his teammates for their championship last year due to injuries. Kershaw confirmed that his inability to participate down the stretch last year was a source of frustration.

“Nobody wants to just sit around,” Kershaw said, as relayed by Ardaya. “I want to pitch, and contribute, and be a part of it. Last year was difficult. Obviously, fun to at least be a part of it and see us win and things like that. You always want to be a part of a great team. That’s what I’m trying to do.”

Dodgers Notes: Phillips, Edman, Hernández

By Darragh McDonald | May 12, 2025 at 1:03pm CDT

The Dodgers put right-hander Evan Phillips on the 15-day injured list last week due to forearm discomfort. Manager Dave Roberts initially downplayed the issue but the prognosis changed in the following days, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register.

“Our expectation is on that 16th day, he’ll be back active,” Roberts previously said. Phillips himself also relayed his belief that he would be back after a minimum absence but that will not be the case. An MRI discovered inflammation in his elbow and he’s going to be shut down from throwing for “a couple weeks,” in Roberts’ words. Even if everything goes smoothly and he feels better after that shutdown, he will then have to ramp back up again.

It’s been a challenging on-and-off period for Phillips going back to last year. Late in 2024, he was dealing with irritation in his shoulder and arm fatigue, as well as tightness in his lat, triceps and biceps. He was left off the club’s World Series roster. He was diagnosed with a small tear of a tendon in his rotator cuff during the playoffs, though that information didn’t come out until early in 2025. He started the current season on the IL due to that strain and was eventually reinstated but only pitched 5 2/3 innings for the Dodgers before this latest issue put him back on the shelf.

Phillips is one of 13 pitchers on the Dodgers’ IL at the moment. That’s not entirely unexpected as several of them underwent major surgeries last year and the team has a broad willingness to bet on talented but injury-prone pitchers. The team is doing fine in spite of that, as their 27-14 record is the best in the majors. Perhaps that allows them to be cautious with Phillips, as opposed to pushing him through an injury before he’s ready.

Whenever he’s healthy again, he will add another weapon to the pitching staff. Dating back to the start of the 2022 season, he has thrown 184 2/3 innings for the Dodgers with a 2.14 earned run average, 29.6% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate.

Plunkett also relays updates on infielder/outfielder Tommy Edman and outfielder Teoscar Hernández, who are both on the 10-day IL. Edman landed there a couple of weeks ago due to ankle inflammation while Hernández suffered an adductor strain last week. The Dodgers are bringing minor league pitchers to the park for some live batting practice this week, with both Edman and Hernández set to take part.

Somewhat similar to the Phillips situation, Edman’s injury was initially framed as very mild but has lingered longer than expected. Even though he’s going to take some swings, he is still having trouble running and Roberts estimates that Edman is only about 80% recovered.

With those two out, more playing time has gone to guys like Hyeseong Kim and James Outman. Kim has no walks and no extra-base hits, leading to a flat line of .318/.318/.318 so far, while Outman has a dreadful .067/.176/.267 slash. That latter line is in just 17 plate appearances but Outman struggled last year as well, hitting .147/.256/.265. Before their IL placements, Edman was hitting .252/.295/.523 while Hernández was at .315/.333/.600, so getting them back on the roster would give a boost to an already-strong Dodger team.

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Dodgers To Place Teoscar Hernandez On Injured List

By Steve Adams | May 6, 2025 at 3:36pm CDT

3:36pm: Manager Dave Roberts tells the Dodgers beat that Hernandez is dealing with a Grade 1 adductor strain and that there’s no timetable for a return but Hernandez will be “inactive for awhile.”

3:29pm: The Dodgers announced Hernandez has been placed on the 10-day IL. Outman has indeed been recalled from Oklahoma City to take his spot on the active roster.

3:04pm: The Dodgers will place outfielder Teoscar Hernandez on the 10-day injured list, reports Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. The team has yet to formally announce the move or a corresponding transaction, but as first noted by Jack Harris of the L.A. Times, James Outman traveled to meet the team in Miami.

Hernandez exited yesterday’s game with tightness in his left hamstring, the Dodgers announced last night. He went for an MRI to determine the severity of his ailment. The results of that imaging still aren’t clear, nor is a potential timetable for Hernandez’s return, but the team clearly saw enough damage to sit the 32-year-old slugger down for the next 10 days.

Though the 24-11 Dodgers currently hold the best record in baseball (by a margin of half a game over the second-place Padres), their outfield production has been more good than great on the whole. Hernandez has been the best of the bunch, slashing an excellent .315/.333/.600 with nine homers. Andy Pages has been strong as well, with a .277/.347/.491 output in regular playing time. The rest of L.A.’s outfield play has been suspect. Free agent acquisition Michael Conforto is out to a woeful .146/.285/.243 start. Neither Chris Taylor nor Tommy Edman has hit well during limited playing time in the outfield. Edman’s broader .252/.295/.523 slash is still quite solid overall, but he’s also on the 10-day injured list due to an ankle issue.

Edman might’ve been the top choice to fill in for Hernandez were he healthy, but the Dodgers will instead give more looks to Outman now — particularly against right-handed pitchers, given his notable career platoon splits. The 28-year-old Outman had a nice debut showing back in 2022 but has struggled mightily in the majors since that time, due in large part to a sky-high 33% strikeout rate in his career. He’s hitting .254/.322/.508 in Triple-A right now, but that’s coupled with a grim 36.3% strikeout rate in 146 plate appearances.

The Dodgers have also scarcely played Enrique Hernandez in the outfield this year, but he’s certainly no stranger to playing there and would make for a natural righty complement in a platoon setup. Taylor would be an on-paper fit as a fellow righty with outfield experience, but he hasn’t hit at all dating back to 2024 and has actually been even less effective against lefties than he has righties.

Dodgers Re-Sign Teoscar Hernandez

By Anthony Franco | January 3, 2025 at 2:25pm CDT

The Dodgers have brought Teoscar Hernández back on a three-year deal. The Republik Sports client is reportedly guaranteed $66MM, including a $23MM signing bonus. There is $23.5MM in deferred money, while the deal includes a $15MM team option (or a $6.5MM buyout) for the 2028 season. He’ll receive a $10MM salary next season, $7.5MM of which is deferred. Another $8MM of his respective $12MM and $14.5MM salaries for 2026 and ’27 are also deferred. The deferrals reportedly reduce the contract’s net present value to roughly $58.1MM.

Hernández, 32, gets the three-year deal he’d been seeking. The slugger had called returning to the Dodgers a priority after a huge first season with the team. Hernández slashed .272/.339/.501 with 33 homers across 652 plate appearances. He carried that strong production into the postseason, hitting three longballs with a .250/.352/.417 slash over 16 games to help the Dodgers secure their second championship in five years.

This was the ideal outcome for a player on a pillow contract. Hernández had reached free agency last winter on the heels of a middling season in Seattle. He had turned in a .258/.305/.435 slash over 678 plate appearances as a Mariner. As a result, Hernández didn’t find the lucrative long-term offer he’d been seeking. While the Red Sox offered him a two-year deal that would’ve come with a $28MM guarantee, he signed for one season on a deferred $23.5MM salary with the goal of reestablishing his market value.

It couldn’t have worked out much better for either side. Hernández had one of the best seasons of his career. He earned his second All-Star nod and Silver Slugger award while picking up down ballot MVP votes for the third time. Hernández established a new career high in home runs with rate stats that were in line with his best years in Toronto. He was an instrumental part of a championship roster.

The down year in 2023 looks like an anomaly. He’s hardly the only veteran hitter to struggle in Seattle’s extremely pitcher-friendly home park. Hernández has been an impact hitter in each of the other four seasons since his breakout in 2020. Over the past five years, he owns a .274/.328/.493 batting line in nearly 2700 trips to the plate. There’ll be a decent number of strikeouts, but few players hit the ball as hard as he does. Hernández is an annual threat for 30+ doubles and at least 25-30 homers.

Hernández was the only key offensive player whom the Dodgers feared losing in free agency. He’ll return to join Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman and Gavin Lux in a loaded offense. The Dodgers added Michael Conforto on a one-year, $17MM contract at the Winter Meetings. No other team rivals the potency of the L.A. lineup.

The Dodgers are taking on some risk from a defensive perspective. Despite plus arm strength and surprisingly strong athleticism, Hernández has never graded as a good defender. That continued this season. Defensive Runs Saved felt he was three runs below par in his 1308 combined innings between the corner outfield spots. Statcast rated him much more harshly, estimating he was 11 runs below average.

Hernández isn’t likely to improve on a contract that runs through age 34. An ideal landing spot would’ve allowed him to move to designated hitter in year two or three. That’s not an option on a team with Ohtani. The Dodgers are moving Betts to shortstop and will have Hernández and Conforto flanking Edman in the outfield. They’ll accept a mediocre defensive unit for the chance to stack with the lineup with good hitters.

Adding Conforto and re-signing Hernández blocks the path to everyday at-bats for youngsters Andy Pages and James Outman. The latter feels like a change of scenery candidate after a disappointing second MLB season. The Dodgers will probably be less inclined to move the 24-year-old Pages, who had a league average .248/.305/.407 showing as a rookie. He still has a minor league option remaining, so they could start him in Triple-A if they don’t want to limit him to fourth outfield work.

Pages doesn’t have anything else to prove in the minors, but the Dodgers have the resources to continue loading up. Other teams figure to at least try to pull him away via trade, though L.A. could prefer to hold him as a replacement for Conforto after next season. Signing Blake Snell and retaining Blake Treinen earlier in the winter leaves the Dodgers without any clear holes on the roster.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Hernández would receive a three-year deal at $60MM. He’ll land slightly above that forecast in raw money, though the deferrals will reduce the net present value to a hair below it. A three-year, $66MM deal without deferrals would have come with a $22MM competitive balance tax hit. Hernández’s number ends up around $19.4MM.

Including Hernández, RosterResource calculates the Dodgers’ luxury tax number around $353MM. They’re well beyond the $301MM mark that represents the final tier of penalization. They’re taxed at a 110% rate on the final AAV. Re-signing Hernández will likely cost them upwards of $40MM next year after taxes. The Dodgers have been undeterred by the CBT as they push for a repeat.

Hernández had declined a qualifying offer. Other teams would have needed to forfeit a draft choice to sign him. The Dodgers only relinquish the right to receive a 2025 compensation pick, which would have come after the fourth round. The Blue Jays and Red Sox had also been linked to Hernández this winter. Those clubs (especially Toronto) could turn to Anthony Santander, who stands as the clear top unsigned outfielder. Jurickson Profar is a tier or two below that as the next-best outfield bat.

Yancen Pujols first reported that Hernández and the Dodgers were finalizing a three-year, $66MM deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive confirmed there was an agreement in place. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the $15MM option for 2028, as well as the signing bonus and the approximate $23MM in deferrals. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported the salary and deferral breakdown. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had the final NPV.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Mets Offered Two-Year Contract To Teoscar Hernandez

By Mark Polishuk | December 28, 2024 at 1:51pm CDT

1:51PM: The Mets’ offer to Hernandez “would’ve carried a similar annual average value to the contract he agreed to with the Dodgers but without deferrals,” The Athletic’s Will Sammon writes. Such shorter-term deals for outfield or DH help remain a possibility for the Mets, if for less than what it would’ve taken to sign Hernandez. For instance, Sammon notes that the Mets have interest in re-signing Jesse Winker in such a role.

1:25PM: The Mets’ interest in the free agent outfield market was seemingly limited to just Juan Soto, as unlike other Soto suitors, New York wasn’t known to have any public interest in the likes of Teoscar Hernandez or Anthony Santander as backup plans if Soto signed elsewhere. However, now with Soto already in the fold, the Mets made a late bid on Hernandez, as Newsday’s Tim Healey reports that the Amazins offered the slugger a two-year deal earlier this week. The dollar figure isn’t known, but Hernandez rejected the deal anyway and rejoined the Dodgers on a three-year, $66MM pact.

Since the Mets have the financial resources to be in on any available player, their interest in Hernandez could’ve been a case of due diligence. There’s no harm, after all, in checking in on a talented hitter to gauge his interest in joining the Mets, and president of baseball operations David Stearns might have seen an opening in a shorter-term deal since Hernandez was lingering on the market.

This isn’t to say that signing Hernandez would’ve been a bargain, exactly, as he would’ve cost the Mets even more draft and international bonus capital. Because New York exceeded the luxury tax in 2024, signing Soto cost the Mets $1MM in int’l bonus pool money, plus their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft. Like Soto, Hernandez also rejected a qualifying offer, and thus signing him would’ve required that the Mets give up another $1MM from their international bonus pool, as well as their third- and sixth-highest draft selections.

Adding Hernandez would’ve further crowded the outfield picture. The projected starting outfield consists of Soto in right field, Brandon Nimmo in left, Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor platooning in center, Starling Marte likely relegated to DH duty, and Jeff McNeil, Jared Young, and Luisangel Acuna able to step onto the grass in a pinch. Had New York signed Hernandez, the likeliest scenario probably would’ve seen Nimmo return to center field, unless the Mets were successful in opening up the DH spot by trading Marte. Reports from a few weeks ago suggested the Mets were willing to eat some of the $19.5MM owed to Marte in the event of a trade, and while no deal was thought to be in the offing, the Mets’ openness to cover salary might hint that Marte is the odd man out.

If signing Hernandez was seen as something of a unique circumstance, the Mets’ outfield depth probably means they’re less likely to seek out Santander or another outfield bat unless Marte is dealt. In terms of lineup additions overall, New York remains linked to Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman as the club looks to boost at least one corner infield slot.

Dodgers Exploring Alternatives To Teoscar Hernandez

By Nick Deeds | December 21, 2024 at 8:44pm CDT

Negotiations between the Dodgers and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez remain at an impasse, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. While L.A. and Hernandez have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion following a successful 2024 campaign that ended in a World Series championship, previous reporting indicated a “gap” remained between the sides in negotiations. Evidently, that gap remains, as Rosenthal reports that Los Angeles brass are “exploring” right-handed alternatives to Hernandez they could add to their lineup instead. The three names Rosenthal lists as potential options for the Dodgers are free agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki, and White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Rosenthal emphasizes, however, that it’s not yet clear how serious the Dodgers are about those pursuits.

Of the three names floated, Suzuki is perhaps the best replacement for Hernandez from the Dodgers’ perspective. He hit .283/.366/.482 with 21 homers and 16 steals in 132 games for the Cubs last year. His high on-base percentage and lesser power make him a somewhat different flavor of hitter than Hernandez, but Suzuki’s 138 wRC+ actually has the edge over Hernandez’s own figure of 134. Both are generally regarded as below-average defenders in an outfield corner, but either one would provide the Dodgers with a big right-handed bat to add to their lineup and a regular for the outfield corner not occupied by Michael Conforto.

Good a fit as Suzuki would be, however, acquiring him may be easier said than done. Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are “not inclined” to trade Suzuki this winter. The club entered the offseason with something of a logjam in the outfield due to the presence of both Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, and that logjam only grew when the club added star right fielder Kyle Tucker in a trade with the Astros earlier this month. Since then, the Cubs dealt Bellinger to the Yankees. While that leaves them in a similar situation as the one they entered the winter in, with two right fielders on the roster and Suzuki likely relegated to regular DH duties, the club still seems to prefer keeping Suzuki rather than parting ways with the talented hitter.

Rosenthal suggests that the Cubs feel that Suzuki would be difficult to replace due to a thin market for impactful right-handed hitters. Aside from Suzuki, the middle of Chicago’s lineup is occupied by switch-hitter Ian Happ as well as lefty bats Tucker and Michael Busch, so Suzuki’s presence adds some much-needed right-handed thump to that mix. Suzuki also holds a no-trade clause, but his previously reported desire to avoid being a full-time DH could make the possibility of a trade that would make him L.A.’s regular right fielder a palatable option. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that the Dodgers could include a talented right-handed bat such as Andy Pages in a package for Suzuki’s services in order to bridge that gap, though six seasons of team control over Pages would be a steep price to pay. Suzuki is under contract for two more seasons and will make $19MM in both 2025 and ’26 before hitting free agency.

Robert, meanwhile, certainly has the potential to match Hernandez’s offensive impact but has yet to demonstrate consistency in the majors. The 27-year-old endured the worst season of his career in 2024 as he hit just .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) while striking out at a 33.2% clip, but hit a much more palatable .287/.331/.511 (129 wRC+) over the prior three seasons and is just one season removed from a 4.9 fWAR 2023 campaign. Robert pairs that volatile but potentially impactful bat with impressive speed (he stole 23 bases in just 100 games this year) and quality defense in center field. He also comes with plenty of injury risk, as 2024 was just the second time in his career he played in even 100 games due to a number of trips to the injured list over the years.

Rosenthal suggests that if the Dodgers were to take a chance on the talented-but-inconsistent Robert, he’d slot into center field for Los Angeles. It’s unclear whether that would mean moving Mookie Betts back to right field and playing Tommy Edman at shortstop, or perhaps a move to second base for Edman that pushes Gavin Lux to the bench (or off the team via trade) and leaves right field open for some combination of Andy Pages and James Outman. Robert is guaranteed $17MM in the form of a $15MM salary and a $2MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2026, but could be retained via club options through the end of the 2027 season if acquired. In terms of acquisition cost, it’s possible that Robert would be less pricey than Suzuki given that Rosenthal reports that the White Sox don’t expect to land multiple top prospects in exchange for Robert, though they would want a “meaningful piece” in return for the All-Star.

Kim is somewhat unique as a potential target for multiple reasons. As a free agent, he’d cost the Dodgers nothing but money as opposed to a trade for Suzuki or Robert that would require some sort of player or prospect return headed the other way. He’s also an infielder who derives much of his value from being a plus defender all across the infield dirt. That makes him a tricky positional fit for a Dodgers club that already figures to juggle Betts, Lux, and Miguel Rojas up the middle. While the club could simply move Betts back to right field, it’s possible they’d prefer to keep him on the dirt and play him alongside Kim with one at shortstop and the other at second base. That would leave Lux without a position, however, and also leave a hole in the outfield left to be internal options or another external addition.

Kim is also by far the weakest hitter of the three at the plate and an undeniable downgrade from Hernandez offensively. While Kim has improved leaps and bounds at the plate after a lackluster rookie season, he’s still more or less a league average hitter with a 101 wRC+ in 2024 and a .250/.336/.385 (106 wRC+) line overall since becoming a regular in 2022. It’s also worth noting that he seems ticketed for the injured list to start the season after undergoing shoulder surgery back in September, though Rosenthal reports that he’s targeting a return to the diamond “early” in the 2025 season. Even so, that would leave the Dodgers utilizing their internal options to fill out the lineup card until Kim is ready to return to action.

Phillies Sign Max Kepler

By Anthony Franco | December 20, 2024 at 3:26pm CDT

The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year deal. It’s a reported $10MM deal for the VC Sports Group client. Philadelphia already had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Kepler changes uniforms for the first time in his career. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota organization. He signed with the Twins as a teenager and reached the big leagues late in the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in parts of 10 big league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching beyond the six-year control window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.

For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average right fielder. He looked as if he might on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer showing in 2019, but that proved to be an outlier in a season that was played with the juiced ball. Outside of that year, Kepler has typically been a 15-20 homer threat with decent on-base skills.

Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled injuries in both knees and only appeared in 105 games. Kepler was limited to a career-low eight home runs while posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line across 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the power. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base percentage in the process.

The Phillies are hoping that a healthy offseason could allow him to return to his prior form. Kepler had one of his best years as recently as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his career) across 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set personal highs in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and hard contact percentage (47.6%). His hard contact rate dropped by 11 points this year, suggesting that he was playing at less than full strength.

Much of Kepler’s diminished production came late in the season. He carried a league average .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 in the second half. The Twins resisted putting him on the IL for a while as they tried to hang onto a Wild Card berth, but his numbers tanked so far in August that he had to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a possible postseason push.

While it ended on a down note, Kepler had a productive run in the Twin Cities. He appeared in more than 1000 games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and just over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t much doubt that Minnesota would go in another direction this offseason, though. Ownership isn’t giving the front office much financial leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was never in the cards.

At his peak, Kepler was one of the sport’s best defensive right fielders. If not for sharing the Target Field outfield with Byron Buxton, he probably would’ve gotten more consistent run in center field early in his career. Kepler’s defensive grades are still solid but not as strong as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league average right fielder in a little over 800 innings this past season. Statcast credited him with two runs above average.

Better health could help him rebound on defense as well. Kepler fell below league average in Statcast’s sprint speed measurement for the first time. That’s not a surprise considering he was playing through knee pain. On both sides of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this year was a health-related blip rather than the sign of a sharp decline in his early 30s.

Kepler figures to play mostly left field at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a position he’s never played in the majors, though most right fielders can kick over to the opposite corner without much issue. Kepler hasn’t started a game in center field since 2021, so he’s probably no more than an emergency option there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are each likelier to handle center field work.

While there shouldn’t be much issue about the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him something of an odd fit. The Phils had sought to find a rotational outfielder who could cut into the playing time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been the most straightforward solution, allowing the Phils to shield Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would address that as a deadline pickup, but he spent most of his tenure on the injured list and was non-tendered last month.

Kepler doesn’t fit that need. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s much better against righties. Kepler has a career .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in more than 1000 plate appearances against southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d probably pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in center field. That’d put the onus on Kepler to stay healthy enough to play regularly in left field.

Marsh could always move back to left if Kepler lands on the IL, yet that’d leave the Phillies with the same middling outfield upon which they’re trying to upgrade. They’d certainly love to offload the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which would enable them to put Kepler in right field and add another outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos money is much easier said than done after he hit .254/.311/.431 this year.

It seems the Phils preferred the price point on Kepler over the asking price for the top righty-hitting outfielders available. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia had shown interest in Teoscar Hernández but apparently balked at the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was looking for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.

Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ salary commitments to roughly $280MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. They’re up to $299MM in competitive balance tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT number already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, so they’re subject to the highest set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, meaning they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM overall commitment on ownership’s part.

Once they go beyond the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed at the maximum 110% rate on further spending. The Phillies were a virtual lock to exceed the third tier regardless of whether they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their top draft choice in 2026 by ten spots (unless they miss the playoffs and draw into the top six in the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year deals addresses two of their biggest questions on relatively affordable terms.

Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies were progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the agreement and reported the $10MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Latest On Teoscar Hernandez

By Steve Adams | December 17, 2024 at 11:18am CDT

The thinking that Teoscar Hernandez would sign early in the offseason or in the immediate aftermath of Juan Soto’s decision has not played out as such. The 32-year-old slugger remains unsigned, reportedly juggling interest from at least the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees to this point in the winter. Hernandez and the incumbent Dodgers have been unable to bridge a gap in Hernandez’s asking price and the team’s offer. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com adds further context, reporting that Hernandez is seeking a three-year deal that’ll guarantee him $22-24MM annually.

A three-year deal in $66-72MM range would generally dovetail with expectations. Hernandez’s agent, Rafa Nieves, already stated earlier in the offseason that Hernandez had been seeking three years last offseason when they pivoted and took a one-year deal in Los Angeles. A three-year deal on the heels of the slugger’s rebound campaign in L.A. seemed (and still seems) reasonable, even though he’s now headed into his age-32 season after rejecting a qualifying offer (and thus attaching himself to draft pick compensation). That $22-24MM range would align with last year’s $23MM salary (though some of that was deferred, dinging the net present value a bit).

With Soto off the board, Hernandez and fellow slugger Anthony Santander are the top corner outfield bats on the free agent market. Santander is two years younger but is also reportedly seeking a five-year deal after swatting 44 homers for the Orioles in 2024. Both players rejected QOs. Hernandez is the more affordable of the two but is also older and more strikeout-prone. The presence of Cody Bellinger on the trade market and the recent emergence of the now-traded Kyle Tucker might’ve combined to slow things down for Hernandez’s market, speculatively speaking.

Hernandez turned in a .272/.339/.501 slash with a career-high 33 home runs last season before going on to hit .250/.352/.417 in postseason play. His 28.8% strikeout rate was an improvement over his 31.1% mark from 2023 but still sat about six percentage points higher than league average. His 8.1% walk rate was the second-best of his career but fell right in line with the 8.2% league average. At this point, teams can expect plus power, a below-average walk rate and more strikeouts than they’d prefer from Hernandez. He drew well below-average marks for his defense, but Hernandez has plus speed and above-average arm strength, per Statcast, so a team might think there’s enough raw talent to coax some better performance out of him.

The defensive concerns do make a multi-year reunion with the Dodgers a potentially problematic pairing, however. Hernandez has said he hopes to return — and the Dodgers are clearly open to a reunion. Beating the rest of the market when Hernandez is already 32 and there’s no DH opportunity thanks to the presence of Shohei Ohtani could make a long-term arrangement worrisome for Los Angeles in a way that’s not the case with other Hernandez suitors.

Latest On Blue Jays’ Offseason Pursuits

By Nick Deeds | December 14, 2024 at 4:54pm CDT

The Blue Jays made a major splash during the Winter Meetings this past week, swinging a trade with the Guardians that sent slugger Spencer Horwitz (very briefly) to Cleveland in exchange for second baseman Andres Gimenez and right-hander Nick Sandlin. The club also reunited with right-hander Yimi Garcia on a two-year deal during the meetings to bolster their relief mix. Now that they’ve made those additions to the bullpen and infield Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet wrote about the club’s needs going forward into the rest of the offseason, noting that the club is interested in adding an impactful slugger to the middle of the lineup to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as well as a starting pitcher who could push Yariel Rodriguez into the bullpen for the club.

It’s hardly a surprise that the club is looking to upgrade the roster in these areas given the players they’ve been connected to this winter. In the aftermath of the club’s failed pursuit of Juan Soto, Toronto has been name-checked as a potential suitor for corner outfield sluggers like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander. Nicholson-Smith opines that the outfield appears to be the “most logical” place for the club to add impact now that the addition of Gimenez has helped to solidify the club’s infield mix, particularly given the fact that center fielder Daulton Varsho is expected to start the 2025 season on the injured list after undergoing surgery on his rotator cuff back in September.

With that said, Nicholson-Smith also suggests that the club could add a more defensively-limited player to their lineup as well after parting ways with a similarly limited player in Horwitz opened up additional DH reps. To that end, Nicholson-Smith reiterates the club’s interest in Hernandez while also floating two other names worth mentioning: free agent DH Joc Pederson and Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. Nicholson-Smith lists Pederson alongside Hernandez and Corbin Burnes among free agents the Jays have spoken to this winter, and he reports that the club is “believed to have shown some interest” in Naylor during their negotiations with Cleveland surrounding the Gimenez trade.

It’s the first time that Toronto has been directly connected to Pederson this winter, though it was just one year ago that the club was reported to have “strong interest” in the slugger before he ultimately signed with the Diamondbacks later in the winter. The soon to be 33-year-old put up a strong season in Arizona in 2024, slashing .275/.393/.515 with a 151 wRC+ in 449 trips to the plate. While Pederson’s massive platoon splits make him a somewhat lackluster option against opposing southpaws, the club’s deep group of young right-handed hitters like Leo Jimenez and Davis Schneider could be a natural fit to step into the lineup for him against tough lefties.

Naylor, meanwhile, is more of a true everyday player who sports a less significant platoon split and more defensive value but a less potent bat overall. The 27-year-old has some experience in the outfield corners but has primarily been a first baseman for the Guardians in recent year. 2024 saw Naylor slash a solid .243/.320/.456 (118 wRC+) that was mostly in line with previous years, as he’s a 121 wRC+ hitter overall since becoming a full-time player in 2022. It’s unclear if the Jays have interest in Naylor even after completing the Gimenez deal, but he certainly makes sense as a trade candidate for the Guardians given the $12MM salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for the slugger in his final trip through arbitration before he reaches free agency next winter. Cleveland has well-regarded youngster Kyle Manzardo available to step in as the regular first baseman should Naylor be dealt at some point this winter.

As for pitching, Nicholson-Smith suggests that while landing Burnes in free agency “doesn’t seem especially likely,” the club pursuing an impact starter can’t be ruled out with left-hander Sean Manaea’s name floated as one possible option. It’s unclear if the club is interested in Manaea specifically, but a pitcher of that caliber could solidify the club’s rotation alongside Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt while pushing Rodriguez to the bullpen after he posted a lackluster 90 ERA+ in 21 starts last year. Attractive as that may seem to Blue Jays fans, Nicholson-Smith cautions that it’s unclear whether the Jays would have the stomach to make an impact addition both to the rotation and the lineup this winter.

RosterResource puts the club’s luxury tax number at just over $228MM, meaning they have around $12MM remaining in the budget before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. Even on impact addition seems certain to carry them past that mark, but a second one would run the risk of pushing them into the uncharted territory of surpassing the second threshold, which sits at $261MM in 2025. Given that, Nicholson-Smith suggests the club may have to choose between targeting an impact slugger and an impact starter before making a lower-level addition to address the other need. Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez are among the veteran sluggers who may be available for relatively cheap in free agency, while back-end starting options who wouldn’t break the bank include players like Michael Lorenzen and Colin Rea.

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