The Cubs may be looking at going into the postseason without their closer. Daniel Palencia entered the ninth inning of Chicago’s game against the Nationals earlier today, but surrendered five runs and was pulled without recording an out. The team termed Palencia’s ailment “shoulder tightness” at the time of his removal, but manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Bruce Levine of 670 The Score) following the game that, more specifically, Palencia was suffering from a posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder.
While specifics beyond that diagnosis were few and far between in Counsell’s description of the situation, it seems all but certain that Palencia will require a trip to the injured list and be out for quite a while. Strains can naturally vary in severity substantially, but one relatively recent example of a pitcher dealing with a posterior capsule strain is Mets right-hander Kodai Senga, who was shut down due to a moderate strain in February of 2024. That kicked off what was more or less a lost season for Senga due to multiple injuries, but the initial diagnosis for that strain was expected to shut him down from throwing for three weeks.
A similar timeline would knock Palencia out for, at minimum, the remainder of the regular season and would likely result in him returning this year only if the Cubs make a relatively deep run into the postseason. Of course, it’s possible that Palencia’s capsule strain proves to be a relatively mild one that requires less time off, and it’s not impossible to imagine that he could be back on the big league mound for in time for the tail end of the regular season; a 15-day stint on the injured list, at this point, would allow Palencia to return to action during the club’s final two series of the regular season against the Mets and Cardinals.
However long Palencia ultimately ends up being sidelined, the news is a brutal blow to Chicago. Acquired from the A’s in exchange for Andrew Chafin at the 2021 trade deadline, Palencia made his big league debut in 2023 but has rounded into form as a dominant closer this year. Entering play today, the 25-year-old had posted a 2.12 ERA with a 2.59 FIP and 28.8% strikeout rate in 51 innings of work for the Cubs this year. He’s walked just 7.8% of his opponents faced and picked up 22 saves in 24 opportunities this year to go with six holds. That dominant production convinced the Cubs to back off the from the high leverage relief market. They targeted Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers to bolster their bullpen rather than landing a more surefire closer like David Bednar or Jhoan Duran.
With Palencia seemingly out of commission for the time being, manager Craig Counsell will now have to reconfigure his bullpen for the stretch run. Rogers has struggled since joining the Cubs, but Kittredge figures to be part of the late-inning mix for the Cubs alongside Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, and perhaps Drew Pomeranz. Keller and Thielbar in particular appear likely to be in the conversation for save opportunities given their dominant seasons with the Cubs this year. Keller has a 2.20 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 59 appearances, while Thielbar sports a 2.15 ERA and 2.68 FIP in 58 outings.
Palencia’s injury is the latest frustrating development for a Cubs team that already had both Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker miss todays game due to injuries. Fortunately, Counsell provided a positive update to reporters (including Levine) regarding the status of both hitters. Counsell indicated that Crow-Armstrong, who exited yesterday’s game after fouling a ball off of his shin, could be back in the lineup as soon as tomorrow for the start of the club’s series in Atlanta. As for Tucker, the All-Star hasn’t played since exiting Tuesday’s game against the Braves and Levine notes that he’s unlikely to be back in the lineup tomorrow. Even so, Counsell suggested that his running improved today and that he’s trending in the right direction towards a return to action in the near future.
And for the 5th year in a row the Cubs lack of signing a reliable closer comes back to bite them again and again and again and again and so on…..Tell me whose fault is that again?
Because it’s someone’s fault he got hurt?
Or that guy could have listened to YOU—spent over $70M for YOUR guy that you jammed down our throat all winter and haven’t said a word about since May—remember—Tanner Scott.
$72M—disaster—can’t get anyone out–second in the majors in blown saves (because he missed time).
Wouldn’t be in the playoffs with your guy.
And guys often have rough first years on a new deal plus we haven’t got to the Playoffs yet and he could still dominate the post season. We’ll have to see. So what’s better signing a guy or doing absolutely nothing? I’ll wait.
Quit waiting—you said he didn’t get a closer.
He didn’t do nothing. He built a bullpen—signed Pressly—got rid of him when he was bad and filled it with a guy who been great all year and got hurt.
You continually make stuff up to fit your narrative.
Until today, he did fine… which $72M and your guy hasn’t.
You tend to have ALL the answers, but never a correct one.
IF the Cubs signed Scott and he pitched like he has I guarantee you wouldn’t be saying “it’s a rough first year but he could dominate in the playoffs”.
Obviously you guys have selective memory and are forgetting all the games that were blown because of Pressly and others before Danny even got the job. I haven’t. Not to mention his reliance on rookies to do a job any decent team with Playoff aspirations doesn’t ignore year after year.
Uncle – you are the only one with selective memory…trying to justify how Scott would’ve been a good signing is wild. Relievers by far carry the most variability year-to-year and Scott has been down right awful.
Unc, what these guys are saying about your expressing your desire for Scott is very true. Numerous times you beat the drumb for him. I remember because I drafted Scott in fantasy because I felt like he would have a great year. However I can admit when I am wrong.
You really do have a problem with selective memory, using it to fit your narrative. And not just with Scott. You often definitely do the same, with regards to Hoyer. To ad nauseam.
I said it, I remember I said it and furthermore I’d still take him for what he’s being paid if the Dodgers would give him to me. He’ll be back. As far as Hoyer goes I’m far more sick of you guys constantly defending him so I guess we’re even, Let me look for all the Playoff appearances we’ve made since he’s been in charge, Sorry couldn’t come up with any. Because he wasn’t in charge of jack when the Cubs won. You keep calling Ricketts cheap, Well he spends more than any team in the division and still can’t beat them.
Danny has been great this year. This is an injury. What are you talking about
Palencia seemed to be found gold this season and wasn’t somebody they had necessarily targeted and groomed to be their closer. He went from being JAG to a highly competent leverage arm in the blink of an eye, it seemed to me. (And we see examples like that happen in bullpens all the time, all around the league.) So in that sense the Cubs should be fine regardless, Palencia served his purpose and POOF now he’s gone. Next man up.
This is really bad, folks. Now, Palencia has seemed a little gassed lately, they might be better off going with Keller or Hodge (Thielbar sometimes?) as closer at this point anyway–but that means those guys can’t be used in set-up roles; it’s legitimate to ask who will get the Cubs to the ninth.
I know some of you think I am the voice of doom–or misunderstand me as some kind of anti-Cubs troll (you have poor reading skills)–but I have to say it: there is a reasonable chance that the Cubs will blow their lead and miss the playoffs altogether, with the Reds or Giants or D-backs or Cardinals snagging the last spot instead. The danger signs of a deep dive for the Cubs are there: weak hitting, injuries, September newbies not helping. It could happen. The Cubs cannot lose their way into the postseason.
There is not a “reasonable” chance with 9 game lead and 19 to go-it’s your nervous defense mechanism as a fan.
They are a weak playoff team that will have to get lucky if they don’t collectively regain confidence. Ditto the Padres-both should root to play each other in the 4/5 WC matchup.
LAD and Mets are sleepwalking, yet still more significant threats to beat overachieving Milw and sudden injury struck Philly.
@cws: A “measurable” chance, then; a “nonzero chance” as they say nowadays. Especially if they get themselves swept in Cincy.
With 19 games to go you really think there is a “reasonable” chance they’ll miss the playoffs? STOP with that tired narrative my gosh. You’ve been spewing that nonsense for months now. They have a NINE game cushion. Alan515253-LPCFSM25 you are something.
Fangraphs has the Cubs locking a playoffs spot at 99%. You’ve explained the 1% so now let’s hear the rest if you’re able to see it or am only focused on 1%.
Wiggins time? Why not?
The makeup of the back end of the bullpen is the more important question, not who gets called up to be a long man
That would be a tad unfair to the kid. They’ve got no choice now but to pull Keller out of his 8th inning job and risk him faltering in the closer role and using Hodge as the 8th inning guy and he’s having an off year. I don’t think Kitteredge is the right guy either. Another failed deadline.
@Uncle: I suspect they will go to Kittredge, and I agree with you, that isn’t a good idea. He has his good moments, but he is not a closer.
Playoffs???? Lucky af if he’s ready for spring training 2026.
Same injury knocked Senga and countless others out 6~7 months.
Anyone watch Civale pitch vs Cubs as a White Sox player? Was lights out first four innings. He basically refused to go to the pen in Milwaukee but gives the Cubs more value as a closer than a four inning starter. He hasn’t pitched since Sept 1. Based on what I saw a month ago he should be the first player tried in the closers role. Tasked with a job of an inning he might flourish.
Bopper, I agree that Civale should now be used in the pen. And I think that it might work out well. But not in the closers role. Keller, should get that role.
Hopefully he’s claiming shoulder tightness to distract from the fact that he got his Ish pushed in for five runs.
He’s had a really good season. Why would he need some fake excuse for himself?
Shoulder tightness? I don’t think we see him until Spring Training 2026. Next man up, or whoever has the hot hand really.
I like when he was setup man, and Keller closes.
Bet the pecking order is Kitt>Keller>Thielbar. Cards fan but ngl this is a fun Cubs team and I’m bummed for em. Love an out of nowhere story like Palencia.
Huge bummer. This isn’t really something you recovery from in a few weeks.
Most likely going to be Keller in that closer role now. It seemed to be trending that way originally until Palencia took charge and made it his own instead.
There is a part of me that thinks, however, that Kittredge might end up as the closer. He has this calm demeanor on the mound that seems immune to unraveling under pressure, so it might be wise to insert him more often into high-leverage situations.
This is a pretty big blow to the Cubs, but the bullpen has been phenomenal this year, far above expectation, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t step up as a whole.
Of course, the best way to bolster the bullpen is for the offense to pick back up. Sucked losing Tucker after he’d finally turned the corner, and PCA- though still struggling- seemed to be gaining a second wind himself lately. It’ll hurt a lot less to lose a high-leverage reliever if the offense makes high-leverage situations a rare thing.