Jon Gray

Jon Gray’s season was all but officially ended last week by a diagnosis of thoracic outlet syndrome, and a subsequent placement on the Rangers’ 15-day injured list.  TOS surgery would keep Gray sidelined for a big chunk of the 2026 season and perhaps the entirety of next year, and Gray would be 35 on Opening Day 2027.  The idea of hanging up his glove entirely has apparently at least crossed Gray’s mind, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that Gray “responded mostly with a shrug” when asked by reporters Friday if he was going to keep playing beyond this season.

When asked about pitching again in 2025, Gray said “I don’t have any idea about the future.  I guess there is always hope.  But it’s hard to have hope with everything that’s happened.  It’s just become a really frustrating pattern.”  That said, Gray noted that he had some interest in looking to “go out with a good feeling” rather than be somewhat forced out of baseball due to injury.

Given that a TOS surgery hasn’t even been officially planned yet, it is probably too soon to be reading too much into Gray’s immediate reaction, as his emotions are (understandably) raw about this latest major setback to his career.  There is no rush for him to make any big decision about his playing career, and naturally Gray might want to take his time in considering whether or not to walk away from the game entirely.

This major injury adds another layer, however, to what was already looking like a crossroads of an offseason for the right-hander.  Gray is in the final season of his four-year, $56MM contract, and he has pitched only 14 innings this season due to a broken wrist suffered during Spring Training, and then this most recent IL placement.  The Rangers have used Gray out of the bullpen rather than as a starter, and he has struggled to a 7.71 ERA over his six appearances.

The sample size is small enough that it’s hard to make any clear observations from Gray’s 2025 performance, and five homers allowed over his 14 innings obviously skewed his numbers to some extent.  It still clearly wasn’t the type of platform year Gray was hoping for heading into free agency, and if healthy, he would’ve likely been looking at a one-year guarantee from a team hoping he could bounce back.  The TOS surgery could make a two-year deal a possibility, with a minimal salary in the first year and a larger commitment for 2027 when Gray is presumably healthy, yet the overall size of that contract doesn’t figure to be too pricey considering the shaky track record of pitchers returning in good form after thoracic outlet syndrome.

Injuries have been a frequent concern for Gray, as a variety of issues (foot problems, an MCL strain, an oblique strain, blisters, shoulder inflammation, a forearm strain, multiple groin strains in 2024, and his fractured wrist) have led to IL stints over the course of his 11 Major League seasons.  Despite these health woes and the fact that he spent his first seven seasons pitching in the thin air with the Rockies, Gray has a respectable 4.49 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, and 7.8% walk rate over 1230 2/3 career innings.

Chosen third overall by Colorado in the 2013 draft, Gray didn’t quite reach the star level associated with such lofty draft status, but he has been a solid rotation member over his career with some flashes of being a frontline starter.  If this is indeed it for Gray, he can look back with pride on a long career that included a World Series ring with Texas in 2023.  (Gray contributed to that title with a 1.59 ERA over 5 2/3 relief innings during the Rangers’ postseason run.)

Grant suggested two other factors that might impact any of Gray’s retirement plans.  Gray has over 10 years of MLB service time — officially crossing that threshold earlier this season — and therefore is already qualified for a full pension.  There is also the widespread expectation that MLB will be facing a work stoppage when the collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2026 season, so if Gray does indeed miss next year while rehabbing, a return to the field could be even further delayed by a lockout.

Rangers righty Jon Gray went unclaimed on waivers, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Texas quietly placed Gray on waivers on Thursday. The 48-hour process came and went without another team putting in a claim, with that window closing this afternoon.

Gray pitched today. The waiver process technically closed at 1:00 pm Eastern, two hours before first pitch, but the Rangers could’ve continued to use Gray even if he’d still been on waivers at game time. Teams are permitted to continue playing those whom they’ve placed on outright waivers so long as they were not previously designated for assignment.

This move itself is likely to be inconsequential. Texas cannot send Gray, who has well over five years of MLB service, to the minors without his consent. They could release him, but all that’d do is remove him from the roster. Placing him on waivers was solely an attempt to dump the remaining $3.1MM on his $13MM salary. They were hoping another team would claim him and assume the rest of the contract. No one bit, and the Rangers would pay that money if they release him. They’ll probably keep him on the roster and could try to place him on waivers again in a week or two to see if they’ll find a taker.

It’s more interesting as a potential precursor to other moves. Rosenthal writes that the Rangers currently have no plans to place anyone else on waivers. However, today’s 14-2 drubbing at the hands of the Blue Jays dropped them to 61-63. They’ve lost four straight and eight of their last 10. They’re now eight games back in the division and five out in the Wild Card picture. Dropping any further in the standings over the next couple weeks could incentivize them to waive a number of veterans just before the end of August.

That has become increasingly prevalent over the past couple seasons. The Angels used waivers to dump the final month of Lucas Giolito’s and Reynaldo López’s contracts in 2023, allowing them to dip just below the luxury tax threshold. The Giants tried a waiver dump with Taylor Rogers and Thairo Estrada last summer, but no one took those contracts off their hands. It’s generally a course of action taken by a team that was a fringe contender at the trade deadline — and thus didn’t sell short-term veterans — that fell firmly out of contention in August.

The timing isn’t coincidental. Players need to be in an organization by September 1 to be eligible for postseason play. A player on a notable salary is much less likely to be claimed after the beginning of September, so the attempted waiver dumps tend to happen in the final few days of August.

Gray clearly doesn’t have surplus value in the eyes of MLB. He missed most of the season after breaking his wrist when he was hit by a comebacker in Spring Training. Texas has used him in relief since he was activated from the injured list on July 23. He’s allowed 12 runs in 14 innings, recording 12 strikeouts against six walks. Opponents have already tagged him for five home runs. His 94.7 MPH average fastball speed is slightly down from his usual 95-96 range even though he has only once worked more than three innings. He has lost a tick on his slider as well.

It may be impossible to find a taker for Gray. They can try again in a couple weeks, potentially hoping that a team would be more willing to take on the approximate $2MM he’s due in September than they were to assume $3MM right now. The Rangers have a number of other players who’d be very likely to get claimed if they choose to go that route.

Merrill Kelly, for instance, would be owed just over $1MM for the stretch run. He’s an impending free agent to whom the Rangers cannot make a qualifying offer because they acquired him midseason. Waiving him just one month after trading three pitching prospects to the Diamondbacks would make for poor optics, but the Rangers could welcome the chance to save the money if they don’t expect to re-sign him and determine they’re all but officially done this season.

Relievers Danny Coulombe, Hoby Milner, Phil Maton and Shawn Armstrong are all impending free agents who’ll be owed just a few hundred thousand dollars in September. The same is true of starter Patrick Corbin. It’d be harder to find a taker for Tyler Mahle, who’ll make just under $2.5MM for the season’s final month and is working back from a shoulder injury. Still, he’s another impending free agent they could make available. It’s also possible they go this route with Adolis García, who’ll probably be non-tendered in his final year of arbitration eligibility. He’d be due around $1.4MM in September and might clear anyway.

None of that seems to currently be under discussion. Gray would’ve been the obvious first player to make available since he’s not performing well regardless. Yet the team’s play over the past couple weeks could put a drastic roster overhaul on the table 10-14 days from now. Outright waivers are in reverse order of the MLB standings and — unlike the old revocable trade waiver system — are not AL or NL specific. Non-contenders have no reason to claim expensive rentals, so any waiver dumps (from Texas or otherwise) would be most meaningful to teams on the fringe of the Wild Card races like the Royals and Reds.

For Texas, this all comes against the backdrop of the luxury tax line. They intended to stay below the $241MM base threshold throughout the offseason. Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News and Jeff Wilson of DLLS Sports each suggested the Rangers’ deadline additions would push them past the tax line. However, Rosenthal writes that Texas is “already believed” to be below the $241MM mark. An unofficial estimate from RosterResource has them around $237MM but has yet to account for incentives that count against the tax number as they’re triggered.