The Padres are expected to reinstate right-hander Michael King from the injured list to start tomorrow’s game versus the Reds, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He’s been out since early Aug. 9 due to knee troubles. That August start stands as King’s only appearance since mid-May, as he’d previously missed more than two months with a nerve issue in his right shoulder.
King hasn’t pitched in a minor league rehab game, though skipper Mike Shildt said in a radio appearance late last week that he’d tossed five innings in a scrimmage setting at the team’s Arizona Complex League facility. That put him on turn to take the ball Tuesday, which would’ve been Nestor Cortes’ spot in the rotation had he not gone down with a biceps strain this past Friday.
Those shoulder and knee injuries have limited King to just 11 starts this season, though he’s been every bit as excellent in that slate of appearances as he was with the Padres in 2024 and with the Yankees’ rotation late in 2023. King has pitched 57 2/3 frames on the season and carries a terrific 2.81 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate, a 38.3% ground-ball rate and 0.94 homers per nine innings. Since moving into a starting role full-time, the former swingman has started 49 games and pitched to a 2.77 ERA. He’s punched out 28.2% of his opponents against an 8.2% walk rate.
King will step back into a San Diego rotation that’s been anchored by offseason signee Nick Pivetta, in terms of both workload and quality. Pivetta’s 164 1/3 innings lead the Friars, and his 2.85 ERA is tops among Padres starters (with the exception of King’s 2.81 in about one-third as many innings). The ultra-durable Dylan Cease has been healthy all season but has continued to struggle to strand runners, leaving him with a 4.71 ERA despite a premium 30% strikeout rate and passable (albeit somewhat elevated) 10% walk rate. Veteran righty Yu Darvish has a 5.75 ERA in his 11 starts, though he’s trimmed that considerably over his past seven trips to the bump (4.11 ERA). Randy Vasquez has kept his ERA under 4.00 despite walking a tightrope with nearly as many walks (9.7%) as strikeouts (12.3%). There’s likely some regression in store for him.
All of that makes getting King back into the mix all the more critical. The Padres added lefties Cortes and JP Sears at the deadline but didn’t deepen their staff overall, given that they sent out starters Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek in the trade that brought catcher Freddy Fermin to Petco Park. Getting King back could be pivotal, particularly since it’ll give him three to four starts to ramp up and get back into form ahead of the Padres’ looming postseason berth.
It’ll also give him a bit more time to build up his case ahead of what’ll be his first trip to the free-agent market. A swift return to form would bode well for the talented righty’s earning power on the open market. If healthy, King should be among the more coveted starting pitchers in free agency this offseason.
King’s return is likely an unwelcome development for the Reds and their fans. Cincinnati sits four games behind the Mets in the National League Wild Card race, tied with the Giants in that regard. A series loss or a sweep at the hands of the Padres could be a backbreaker for their season. From the Padres’ vantage point, winning even two of three would further pad their standing in the Wild Card mix. And, with just a one-game deficit standing between the Friars and the division-leading archrival Dodgers, King could be a pivotal part of a late push for the division.
Return of the King!
Go Pads 🤙🏽😎🤙🏽
Right in time for the playoffs push, the division is still up for grabs. Good luck to your Padres, it’s going to come down to the last week I think!
Bling bling > Division banner
Absolutely, a World Series trophy is the goal, but winning the division would get the Padres to host and maybe get a bye.
I don’t think anyone is catching the Brewers or the Phillies for the two byes.
Still like to see the Padres pick up the pace and either win the division or take the 1st WC spot. It gives them home field advantage in the 1st round of playoffs they will play.
La Padres made out great in that trade acquiring King from the Yankees. Yankees got their rental at a high cost. Yes it helped them get to the WS , however, “If you ain’t first you’re last Bobby”.
“Oh I just can’t wait to be King”
May he return pitching like peak era Cliff Lee or Justin Verlander and secure that bag at like 4 years/$170M or 6 years/$225M etc. he deserves it. One of my favorite success stories of an under the radar pitchers who’s made a name for themselves.
Seth Lugo
$225 million for Michael King would be….something.
Look at it this way:
Nowadays any pitcher who’s got high market visibility, is well liked and has a ton of hype around them will get like 1 year/$15M just to sit on an injured list and recover in someone’s organization.
A player between 29-32 years old who’s at the peak of their game is going to secure 5+ years at top dollar within a $5M-$10M AAV range starting at a $30M floor and a $50M ceiling.
This means at the very least, Michael King will be looking at 5 years/$150M as a floor, where he’s essentially giving a team a massive discount just because he likes them or something.
Lets assume he’d just be going for the highest AAV and largest length contract he can find and the market for him is genuinely competitive.
That’d very reasonably assume a bidding war that could easily push it up to 6 years/$240M and as high as 7 years/$315M.
I think the contract will wind up at 6 years/$255M if there is a bidding war and if he’s just going for where he actually wants to be and that team offers him something reasonably competitive but he still gives them heavy discounts so they can spread their budget around, that’d look more like 6 years/$225M.
A pitcher like King would be looking at maybe $25M a year 15-20 years ago and $30M a year 10-15 years ago and $35M a year 5-10 years ago.
In 2025-2026? That’d be $35M-$45M.
So even a discount rate on him that’s still competitive would be about $37.5M per season on any new contract that represents his big Peak Value Cash In His Chips Mega Contract and if it’s shorter term, like 3-4 years, it’d have to be at least $50M AAV to get him close to the floor of his value, etc.
That’s all hilarious.
How many pitchers get that sort of contract with ONE healthy and productive season out of six?
I don’t think he’ll get anything close to that. He’s injured way too often, over multiple seasons, for anyone to invest in him that way.
a) what do you think he’ll actually likely receive?
b) I addressed what a 2-3 year contract would look like for him- it’s about the AAV more than anything.
c) Lots of players have deals that account for the fact that they’re often injured and when they’re not injured, they’re fantastic. Those deals tend to have some degree of a discount but aren’t exactly cut rate.
Just look at Byron Buxton, who, when healthy, should be worth $35M per season, but is often injured so he gets a little over $15M per season and he’s just an outfielder and a hitter- if he was a pitcher on the equivalent deal, he’d probably be making $25M per season.
Look at de Grom- deGrom can’t stay healthy and took a “discount” of $37M per season for 5 years.
Now, King doesn’t have the hype that deGrom did, but at 35 years old, deGrom got that 5 years/$185M deal.
Lets assume that a team assumes they’ll get between 10, 12, 15, 18, 20, 25 and 30 starts a year from King. That’s an average of 19 starts per year from King. I’ll even drop that down to 17 games per season assuming he gets extra rest/recuperation stints compared to other pitchers.
If he’d be worth $45M per year making 34 starts per season (which is generally the max number of games heavily used, durable starting pitchers make, often including 1-3 spot starts on short rest because of how crucial those games are) then at 17 games started on average, he’d be worth $22.5M per season.
Basically all that is to say there’s no world in which, unless he has a catastrophic injury before he signs his next contract, he’s not looking at a minimum of 5 years/$125M on a “I’m just glad someone offered me *something*” type of a deal and more realistically, he’ll get 6 years/$202.5M ($33.75M AAV) on a ‘happy middle ground’ deal between his top of market value and a team’s realistic considerations about his likely stints on the IL and the fact that he won’t hold up like a Verlander or a Randy Johnson, etc.
So, I don’t know what you think his market is, but anything below like 4 years/$135M is just a misunderstanding of the way pitchers are valued.
When Andrew Heaney, a journeyman borderline Quadruple-A spot starter, can get an average of almost $12M a year to be a 5th/6th starter, Michael King is worth 3-4x that- which would be $35M+ per season on any deal.
That’s a lot of words, but holy smokes are you thinking Michael King gets 6/202.5m?!?
I don’t think he would have gotten that rich of a deal with even a better 2025 then 2024.
His ceiling with the way 2025 played out is probably closer to the kind of deals Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman signed as FA’s.
He seems primed to be one of this off-season free agents to take a 2 year deal with an opt-out after year 1.
I’ll go 2/55m.
Well, he’s a trillionaire. A $100M or two difference is only semantics to him.
I get it- guys around here are usually conservative in their contract guesstimating.
I think part of it is that they’re personally offended by the sheer volume of money.
I just look at the market, I look at comparable players and I make my guesstimations.
It ain’t my money.
I think plenty of guys are on deals that are too many guaranteed years at too high an AAV and vice versa, but for the most part, a player’s market range is self evident based on comparable players’ career numbers.
Maybe 4/110 with those opt outs after 2 and 3.
As a SD fan, I be ok there. Add a year at that AAV if it made him feel better.
He is more Lugo plus, than DeGrom in my mind with limited starting which is offset with injury.
There was only one deGrom of that caliber (his era’s elite) but there will be more similar to Michael King this year. A team misses on King they go after Gallen or Cease or Kelly (insert similar guys) on a shorter term deal and wait for next year.
I get that. I hear ya. I just don’t see him getting less than $30M AAV in today’s market.
It’s called being grounded in the realities of the market. You’re wildly over-inflating and incorrectly assessing King’s value. Data analysis isn’t your strong suit.
Are you an actual analysis inside of the MLB getting paid to create player valuations?
If not, data analysis isn’t your strong suit.
For whatever it’s worth I tend to accurately predict contracts, box office, actor salaries, real estate sales prices, etc.
This is literally the thing I do best.
Bro, if he’s asking for a Carlos Rodon contract, he’ll be settling for a Jordan Montgomery deal. Come back to earth.
There’s asking and there’s the market.
Spotrac guesstimates his current free agency market at essentially 4 years/$100M and that tends to be the median.
Remember when Patrick Corbin got 6 years/$140M off mediocre ERA just because he was an innings eater?
That was 7 years ago. That same kind of deal now would be like 6 years/$165M.
If a Corbin-level pitcher can secure 5+ years at $27.5M per season in this market, then a higher leverage pitcher who has way more value per pitch thrown, per inning completed, etc. then $27.5M would be that player’s *floor*.
I am thinking he gets 3yr/$60M with opt outs after each year. I’m thinking front loaded so ideally he opts out after a big 2026. Annually $25M/$20M/$15M
I just don’t see a world where a 2nd starter level starting pitcher gets under $30M per season for less than 4 seasons at King’s age.
So I’m wondering how accurate Spotrac is at estimating historically.
You say they have 4/100 and I said above 4/110 with opt outs and maybe a 5th year if necessary.
I do not see him getting 30 AAV unless it’s 1 or 2 year deal which could appeal to a team.
Spotract, like myself, tends to do median valuations. Meaning they must view his floor as being around $18M+ and his ceiling at $30M+, but again, they tend to be conservative guesstimators- like you guys.
Look, there’s a range for every player, for every position, for every market value- some guys projected to get 1 year/$10M get 8 years/$200M and vice versa.
You can’t predict these things.
Everybody in here is just speculating and whatever we firmly believe doesn’t matter one iota when free agency hits and players and team make the deals they wind up making/
Y’all can get as mad at me as you want, but you’re here for entertainment- this argument is entertainment.
None of it matters.
It’s like a cow’s opinion. A moo point.
I feel bad he’s gonna get clobbered by the reds… oh well
That should give us two viable starting pitchers.
Yu might say the return of the King is right in the Nick of time. (See what I did there?) hahaha
Go Pads!
I’ll be sending you a Cease and desist for that joke
All the estimators cluster in the 3.3–3.9 range, so even if regression hits, he’s still solidly above average. His FRA is trending in the wrong direction so we might be seeing the last few decent seasons from him before he becomes fodder, though.
What about JOE KING ??
Misread the headline as “excited to activate Michael King”, I was just like “good for them, I guess”
In this year of attrition, the last man standing gets to grab the great big bag of gold.
King is back just in the nick of time!
Padres need the Michael King from 2024 badly to stabilize
their rotation and still have a chance to win the Division over the Dodgers,