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Is Kyle Schwarber Better Than This?

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It’s well known that Cubs brass has long revered Kyle Schwarber, the fourth overall pick in 2014 whom the team refused to part with in trades during ensuing seasons. The big-bodied Schwarber was a catcher in his younger days, though there was much skepticism the ex-Indiana Hoosier would carve out a future in the majors behind the plate. Indeed, despite having slimmed down in recent years, Schwarber hasn’t donned the tools of ignorance at all since 2017.

With no DH spot available in the National League and Anthony Rizzo holding down first base, Schwarber has settled in as the Cubs’ left fielder. Reviews have been mixed on Schwarber, who has simultaneously accounted for minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-14.6 Ultimate Zone Rating through upward of 2,700 innings in left. The fact that Schwarber hasn’t been unplayable in the outfield is a clear positive, but his left-handed bat will always be his carrying tool. However, despite the hype that has surrounded Schwarber in his career, he hasn’t emerged as a great major league hitter yet.

Schwarber was a tremendous college and minor league offensive performer who immediately made his mark in Chicago as a rookie in 2015, when he slashed .246/.355/.487 (131 wRC+) with 16 home runs across 273 plate appearances. In light of his stellar introduction, expectations were Schwarber would further cement himself as a linchpin of the Cubs’ lineup in 2016. Instead, though, he suffered a torn left ACL and LCL in April of that year and wound up missing all but two regular-season games. To his immense credit, Schwarber became something of a Chicago folk hero in rehabbing quickly enough to return for the World Series that autumn. Schwarber put the exclamation point on his Fall Classic comeback by slashing a fantastic .412/.500/.471 in 20 PA against the Indians to help the Cubs win their first title in 108 years.

The good times were supposed to keep rolling for Schwarber, but his output has been underwhelming since his triumphant return. Dating back to 2017, Schwarber has batted .226/.333/.466 with 74 homers, a 107 wRC+ and 5.6 fWAR over 1,340 trips to the plate. The 26-year-old has essentially been a league-average hitter (101 wRC+) through 344 PA this season, making him an unspectacular part of a team whose weeks-long slump has led to frustration from its higher-ups.

Here’s some much-needed positive news for the Cubs, though: Better days may be ahead for Schwarber. His hard-hit percentage ranks second among all qualified hitters who have totaled at least 100 batted ball-events this year, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls checks in at 13th. Among batters who have accumulated at least 300 PA in 2019, FanGraphs credits Schwarber with the game’s seventh-lowest soft-contact percentage (10.8). Adding to the encouragement, Schwarber has increased his flies/liners while decreasing his grounders compared to 2018. He’s also making more contact while swinging and missing less than he did a year ago. All of that has helped Schwarber maintain his prodigious power despite so-so overall results this year, as he has chipped in 18 HRs with a .234 ISO.

With the above considered, it’s no surprise Schwarber’s expected weighted on-base average (.358) far outdoes his real wOBA (.331). However, just because Schwarber’s hitting the ball hard doesn’t automatically mean his production will positively regress. It doesn’t appear the strikeout-prone Schwarber is a sure bet to ever complement his power with a high batting average or a lofty BABIP (the latter’s at .269 this year, right in line with his career mark), so he has to compensate by drawing walks. Schwarber collected free passes a personal-best 15.3 percent of the time in 2018, assisting in a career-high .356 OBP and helping cancel out a .238 average. But his walk percentage has dropped to 12.5 – not far from his lifetime figure – this year. That’s still easily above average, but the 3 percent fall has limited Schwarber to a .326 OBP that’s barely better than the .322 MLB mean.

Average offensive numbers aren’t going to suffice for Schwarber, who Baseball America wrote in 2015 had a chance to become a “.300-hitting, 30-homer” force in the majors. While Schwarber’s power potential has indeed transferred to the bigs since then, the Cubs continue waiting for the rest of the offensive package to arrive.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Could Move Matt Strahm Back To Bullpen

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Although left-hander Matt Strahm is one of three Padres with at least 15 starts this year, he may be on his way back to the team’s bullpen. Strahm will work as a reliever this weekend, and there is a chance his role change will last beyond the All-Star break and perhaps through the season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

The 27-year-old Strahm explained to Acee that he considers himself a starter and would like to remain one, but he’d accept a reversion to his previous job. Strahm functioned almost exclusively in relief for the Royals and Padres from 2016-18, during which he picked up just eight starts in 86 appearances. Even though Strahm was quite effective out of San Diego’s bullpen last season, the team took the gamble of turning him into a full-time starter coming into this year. The experiment was going swimmingly through May, at which point Strahm had posted a sparkling 3.21 ERA with 51 strikeouts against 11 walks in 56 innings.

While Strahm carried a stretch of nine straight starts in which he allowed three earned runs or fewer into June 2, his season began unraveling then. Strahm coughed up seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Marlins, and the Padres put him on the injured list with a rib strain shortly thereafter.

Although Strahm returned after spending the minimum time on the IL, his woes have intensified since. Including his performance against Miami, Strahm has turned in five starts in a row of giving up between four and seven earned runs. He now owns a bloated 5.42 ERA with a similarly unpalatable 5.21 FIP over 79 2/3 frames this season, despite having notched 8.7 K/9 against 1.92 BB/9. Most of Strahm’s problems have come versus same-handed hitters, whom he has surprisingly had much more trouble against than righties throughout his career. Those struggles have been even more pronounced this year, though, as lefties have pulverized Strahm for a .430 weighted on-base average. For all intents and purposes, Strahm has turned every lefty swinger into Charlie Blackmon (.425 wOBA).

A drop in velocity surely hasn’t helped matters for Strahm, who has seen all of his pitches lose steam since 2018. He averaged around 94 mph on his fastball last year, but it’s down to roughly 91 this season. Less velocity has helped lead to more home runs off Strahm for opposing hitters. Just under 18 percent of fly balls have left the yard against Strahm, which is especially alarming for someone whose groundball rate (33.1 percent) ranks near the absolute bottom of the majors.

Now, if the Padres do pull Strahm from their rotation for good, it’s unclear which quintet would comprise their rotation. The team just got Dinelson Lamet back from Tommy John surgery, while Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer have done well across a combined 46 starts. The Friars also have Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill and Nick Margevicius in the mix, and there’s at least some chance they’ll add another starter in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. Despite a 43-45 record, the Padres are just three games back of a wild-card spot, which could put them in position to buy in the right situation (perhaps one that would deliver a controllable starter to San Diego). Looking beyond the deadline, there’s a chance recovering Tommy John patient Garrett Richards will come back in September.

In shifting Strahm back to his previous role, the Padres would hope he’d rekindle last year’s magic and give them the lights-out lefty reliever they’ve lacked this season. With Jose Castillo and Aaron Loup having missed most or all of the season, the Padres’ lone usable lefty option has been Robbie Erlin. He hasn’t been great, though, whereas Strahm’s just a year removed from pitching to a 2.25 ERA (albeit with a far less formidable 3.70 FIP) with 9.56 K/9 against 3.38 BB/9 in 48 relief innings.

AL Injury Notes: Luzardo, Stroman, Twins, Mize

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There’s now a rough timeline for Athletics southpaw Jesus Luzardo, who was agonizingly close to a full return from a shoulder injury — and his first taste of the majors — when he suffered a lat strain days ago. Fortunately, the hyped 21-year-old could be ready to begin a new rehab assignment within four or five weeks. That’s about as quick a potential bounce back as might have been hoped for a player who’ll assuredly be handled with extra care. It seems there’s still a reasonable shot of Luzardo being a late-season MLB option, though the A’s will not be able to assume that they’ll get a shot in the arm from the top prospect.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman will not take the ball again before the All-Star break, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. Stroman hasn’t pitched since he exited a June 29 start with a left pectoral cramp, though the injury may not be severe enough to prevent him from participating in the All-Star Game, according to Nicholson-Smith. Regardless, the team’s hope is he’ll start its first game after the break. The fact that Stroman’s one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates makes his health all the more crucial with the July 31 deadline coming up.
  • There was some good news and bad news today on the injury front for the Twins, as Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Outfielder Eddie Rosario, on the IL with a sprained ankle since June 28, is making progress and should return shortly after the All-Star break, manager Rocco Baldelli suggested. Meanwhile, the left oblique strain that forced fan favorite and utilityman Willians Astudillo to the IL on June 27 is “significant,” per Baldelli. It could keep Astudillo out “for the foreseeable future,” Park writes.
  • Tigers prospect Casey Mize has resumed throwing after a recent injury scare, GM Al Avila told reporters including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (via Twitter). That’s not of immediate consequence for the Detroit club, but is certainly excellent news for the team’s long-term outlook. Mize, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick and one of the majors’ elite farmhands, has been on the minor league IL with right shoulder inflammation for three weeks. The 22-year-old laid waste to his competition before then, combining for a 0.92 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 78 innings between High-A and Double-A ball.

NL Injury Notes: Rendon, Dodgers, Pirates

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Checking in on the latest notable injury news from the National League…

  • Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon finally earned his first All-Star nod this season, but the 29-year-old is going to miss the game, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to tweet. Rendon will instead rest his ailing hamstring and quad, two areas that have nagged him since the Nationals’ series against the Reds from May 31 to June 2. Despite having to play through pain over the past month-plus, Rendon’s performance has remained stellar for the surging Nats. He’s hitting .304/.389/.615 (152 wRC+) with 20 home runs through 316 plate appearances.
  • The Dodgers offered updates on a slew of injured players today, with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register among those covering the news (all links to Twitter). Backstop Will Smith and righty Tony Gonsolin, present depth pieces with bright long-term outlooks, are each headed to the injured list. The former has a strained right oblique and will be placed on the MLB IL, having not played since being sent down. The latter is dealing with a left hamstring issue and will go on ice for a stretch to avoid any complications. Meanwhile, the club is awaiting the returns of infielders David Freese and Corey Seager. The former is just waiting for his hamstring to heal up; he’ll seemingly remain out through the All-Star break. The latter is also not a candidate for activation before the mid-summer festivities but could rejoin the club immediately thereafter.
  • Pirates southpaw Steven Brault exited his start against the Brewers on Friday with an ominous-sounding issue – left shoulder discomfort – per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The severity of Brault’s injury isn’t known yet, but he’s not feeling great at the moment, Will Graves of The Associated Press tweets. Should Brault require a stint on the IL, he’d become the fifth notable Pittsburgh starter to go on the shelf this season. Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams and Jordan Lyles have all missed various amounts of time. The onslaught of starter injuries is a key reason the Pirates have turned to the swingman Brault, who has done a decent job over 60 2/3 innings. Across 15 appearances and nine starts, he owns a 4.15 ERA/4.53 FIP with 7.86 K/9, though he has walked a hefty 4.75 per nine.

Injured Angels’ Pitchers Making Progress

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The Angels are close to welcoming back a pair of starting pitchers, as Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic was among those to cover (Twitter links here). Matt Harvey is slated to rejoin the rotation out of the All-Star break, while JC Ramirez appears to be nearing activation as well after a typically lengthy Tommy John rehab process. Meanwhile, reliever and fellow Tommy John patient Keynan Middleton began a rehab assignment Friday.

Harvey went to the injured list with an upper back strain May 25 and then suffered a setback June 10, continuing a nightmarish season. The Angels took a one-year, $11MM flier on Harvey in free agency, but the decision has emphatically gone against the team thus far. Once an ace with the Mets, Harvey joined the Angels after finishing 2018 in respectable fashion with the Reds. In his first two months as an Angel, though, the 30-year-old performed like one of the majors’ worst starters, notching a  7.50 ERA/6.11 FIP with 6.56 K/9 against 3.94 BB/9 across 48 frames.

Ramirez, also 30, hasn’t taken the mound for the Angels since going under the knife last April. The righty managed effective results in 142 1/3 innings as a starter for the Angels in 2017, when he put up a 4.11 ERA (with a 4.67 FIP), 6.45 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 51.4 percent groundball rate. A 95.5 mph fastball helped Ramirez achieve that success, though Triple-A Salt Lake broadcaster Steve Klauke tweeted last week that the hurler’s velocity has been far less imposing during his rehab work. That was again the case Friday, per Klauke, who reports Ramirez hovered around 88 to 92 mph while tossing six innings of three-run ball.

Sadly for the Angels, the upcoming returns of Harvey and Ramirez have taken on added importance in light of starter Tyler Skaggs’ passing this week. At 45-44 and 4 1/2 games out of playoff position, the club has an outside chance at earning a wild-card spot. But the Angels will need more from a starting staff which is trying its best to carry on under terrible circumstances. None of the Angels’ current options have posted exemplary production to this point, though there’s plenty of promise in the form of Andrew Heaney and the young tandem of Griffin Canning and Jose Suarez.

Angels starters have handed off to a bullpen which has received quality late-game production from Ty Buttrey, Hansel Robles and Cam Bedrosian. When Middleton comes back, the 25-year-old will add another high-octane arm to the group. With help from a 96 mph heater, the right-handed Middleton logged a 3.43 ERA/4.24 FIP with 9.36 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 76 innings from 2017-18. He underwent surgery last May.

MLBPA Hires Chris Capuano

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Longtime major league left-hander Chris Capuano officially ended his playing career in 2018, but it didn’t take much time for him to find a new role in the game. The MLB Players’ Association announced the hiring of Capuano as its director of operations on Friday.

With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire after the 2021 season, the union and the owners have already begun talks on a new CBA. It seems the 40-year-old Capuano is in line to play an important part in future discussions, as the union explained he “will oversee and engage in full range of Players Association Initiatives including general union operations, Players Trust-related activities, various business activities, and collective bargaining.”

Capuano brings impressive credentials to his new position. Not only was he a consistent union presence as a player, but Capuano boasts an accomplished educational background. He earned an undergraduate degree in economics from Duke University in 2000 and recently graduated from MIT’s Sloan Fellows MBA program, according to the MLBPA.

The union’s executive director, Tony Clark, praised Capuano as someone who “has always been a passionate and articulate voice” on the players’ behalf. Capuano added: “This is an opportunity for me to continue working with players to collectively achieve our objectives as stewards of the game and to help players use the great platform our National Pastime provides to make a positive impact.”

Capuano spent parts of 12 years in the majors and combined for a 4.38 ERA across 1,429 2/3 innings with the Diamondbacks, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees.

Jeff Luhnow Discusses Astros’ Rotation

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The depth of the Astros’ rotation suffered a blow Friday with the loss of right-hander Corbin Martin, who underwent Tommy John surgery. Not only is the 23-year-old done for 2019, but Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said Martin is likely to sit out a “significant portion” of next season (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Martin’s absence will cost the Astros a hurler they thought would factor into their rotation in 2020, according to Luhnow.

While Luhnow added that the loss of Martin doesn’t affect the Astros’ plans leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, he admitted that “it could make getting a pitcher with an extra year of control more appealing.”

Owing in part to Martin’s injury, the Astros will head into 2020 with some uncertainty in their rotation. Ace Justin Verlander will stick around, Brad Peacock could either continue to start or return to the Astros’ bullpen, and Lance McCullers Jr. should be back from a Tommy John procedure of his own. On the other hand, though, co-ace Gerrit Cole might depart for a mega-deal in free agency, which would be an enormous shot to Houston’s rotation. Southpaw Wade Miley, who’s been an effective starter for the Astros this year, and righty Collin McHugh are also scheduled to reach the open market.

Even after seeing Martin go down, the Astros still have promising young pitchers who could earn spots on their 2020 staff, with Forrest Whitley, Josh James and J.B. Bukauskas among them. But if the AL West leaders want a more established starter to aid in their World Series push this year and take a spot next season, their solution could come via trade this month.

The Astros had already been connected to the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd in the rumor mill prior to the news on Martin. The 28-year-old Boyd’s a breakout left-hander who’s controllable through 2022, which makes him one of the coveted trade candidates available as the 31st nears. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News added more fuel to the fire Friday, tweeting Houston has “been one of the teams scouting Boyd hard.”

Like Boyd, Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman stands out as an obvious trade chip who’d further a team’s cause past this season. The Astros have reportedly had interest in Stroman, who’s under control through 2020, for multiple seasons. In light of Luhnow’s comments, Stroman may be an even more realistic possibility for the Astros.

Diamondbacks Place David Peralta On Injured List

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The Diamondbacks placed left fielder David Peralta on the 10-day injured list and recalled infielder Domingo Leyba from Triple-A Reno on Friday, manager Torey Lovullo announced.

Peralta is dealing with right AC joint inflammation, an issue that has dogged him for over a month. The 31-year-old went to the IL with the same injury on May 24, and even though Peralta spent the minimum time on the shelf, his shoulder hasn’t healed since then. Lovullo did express hope Friday that Peralta would once again return after a short IL stay, though.

Peralta boasted a .309/.357/.524 line in 217 plate appearances when he initially went down, but that slash has dropped to .289/.352/.476 (112 wRC+) in 107 PA since his return. While that’s still quality production overall, it falls well short of Peralta’s numbers in comparison to last year, when he recorded a 130 wRC+ with 30 home runs. He has mustered just nine HRs this season while seeing his ISO drop from .223 to .187.

Arizona, which is three games out of the NL wild-card race, has often turned to the righty-hitting Tim Locastro in left when Peralta hasn’t been available. However, with right-hander Antonio Senzatela on the mound for the Rockies on Friday, the Diamondbacks started the lefty-swinging Jarrod Dyson.

Closer Updates: Athletics, D-Backs, Royals

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Let’s check in on a few ninth-inning situations from around the game …

  • The Athletics are engineering a change in their closer situation, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Just-minted All-Star Liam Hendriks is going to be relied upon to secure final-inning leads for the foreseeable future, she indicates. Blake Treinen had performed the job with aplomb last year but hasn’t been nearly so trustworthy in 2019. He has been issuing a dizzying number of walks of late and took a loss in his most recent appearance after returning from a brief injured-list stint. Hendriks, meanwhile, is humming along at a 1.29 ERA clip through 48 2/3 innings, with 11.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He has only permitted a single long ball this year, with a paltry 1.8% HR/FB rate. That’ll need to hold up, at least to some extent, if he’s to succeed with an exceptionally flyball heavy approach; his current 0.56 GB/FB rate is by far the lowest in his career.
  • While Greg Holland was and probably still is at risk of losing his hold on the 9th with the Diamondbacks, he’ll still be in line for save duties unless and until we hear otherwise. Skipper Torey Lovullo tells reporters, including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link), that he won’t “run from” the veteran reliever — even after a pair of brutal outings. Last we checked, Lovullo was sleeping on the decision so he could make it “with a clear head.” It seems he wasn’t quite ready to open that can of worms. The team would no doubt prefer for Holland to work through things, as we explored in the above-linked post. Another factor: the alternatives, or lack thereof. It has been an off year for Archie Bradley, though he fares much better in the eyes of fielding-independent pitching metrics than his 5.21 ERA would suggest. It’s the opposite scenario for Yoan Lopez, who has secured excellent results despite a pedestrian 6.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. There’s an argument for Andrew Chafin (3.03 ERA; 11.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9) and perhaps Yoshihisa Hirano, who long closed in Japan, but it isn’t as if there’s a single, clear alternative to Holland.
  • In more forward-looking news, surprise Royals closer Ian Kennedy is settling nicely into his new gig, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. “I]t’s fun to be good at something again and contribute,” says the former starter. While his big contract will run out after 2020, the 34-year-old Kennedy says he anticipates continuing his career thereafter. “You can sign one-year or two-year deals,” he explains, “because even though you’re older, teams know you can still pitch and help a team. You look around the league and you see that all the time.” We’re still a ways away from considering Kennedy as a free agent, but perhaps he will have a shot at a productive run through his mid to late-thirties. Of more immediate concern for the foundering K.C. club is whether Kennedy can be turned into a trade chip. With $16.5MM salaries this year and next, there’s little chance of moving all of the money, but Kennedy’s relief revival makes it reasonable to expect that some kind of deal can be structured to save the rebuilding organization some cash.

Latest On Marlins’ Draft Signing Efforts

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After a few recent deals hit the books, the Marlins were left with the two top remaining unsigned players from June’s Rule 4 amateur draft. Fourth overall choice J.J. Bleday and #35 draftee Kameron Misner have yet to agree to terms, though it seems there’s general optimism — for the former, in particular — that they’ll end up signing on.

The deadline for reaching agreement is July 12th at 5pm eastern. It’s not at all infrequent to see a few nail-biters, though this signing season has been notably free of drama. After Bleday and Misner, the loftiest selection that isn’t yet in the books is 67th overall pick Josh Smith (Yankees).

President of baseball operations Michael Hill did not express any concern with the two key draft pieces, both of whom were star collegiate outfielders. “We’re encouraged with both, and hope to get it taken care of and get them out as soon as possible,” he tells MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro.

In the case of Bleday, who just wrapped up a championship run with Vanderbilt, it seems it may only be a matter of time before he’s under contract. Frisaro tweets that a deal is “getting closer to being finalized” while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman says in his own tweet that the sides are “moving toward a deal.” Both indicate that the bonus is likely to be right near the slot value of $6,664,000.

As for Misner, a competitive balance round A selection who hails from the University of Missouri, there seems at least to be a bit more uncertainty. Heyman says that the Marlins are “believed” to have made an at-slot offer of $2,095,800. Misner and his reps may be running the clock in hopes of commanding more, but it’s not clear whether that’s even a realistic possibility. There’s no indication at present that he’d consider returning to school; as Frisaro rightly notes, that’s a risky option for a college junior.

By my count, the Marlins have spent to the limits of their existing bonus pool. They saved on several players but went over slot for second-rounder Nasim Nunez and fifth-rounder Evan Fitterer. Teams can exceed the allocated values by 5% without sacrificing any future draft picks; tallying the MLB.com tracker bonuses and adding that padding to the already signed players puts the Fish at about $7K shy of the line. In other words: there’s no room to pay one of their two remaining unsigned players more than their slot value unless the other takes less.

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