We’re bringing back our annual series in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. As the summer trade market develops on a fairly tight timeline, you can expect more regular updates when modifications to the list are warranted. We’re already seeing real action this year; most recently, Edwin Encarnacion was moved to the Yankees. (He had been listed in the #4 spot below in the initial draft of this post.)
The methodology, if you can call it that, is pretty straightforward. We’re ordering players based upon a combination of trade value and trade likelihood.
In terms of trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit.
With regard to trade likelihood, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t presently in a position where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.
It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Here’s the first list, with some additional names and teams to keep an eye on appended at the end (all statistics current as of June 13th):
1. Will Smith, RP, Giants: What really is there to say? A shut-down rental closer who throws from the left side and isn’t all that expensive ($4.225MM) … yeah, that’s going to be a popular trade target. Smith would upgrade every contender’s roster and suit every payroll. Accordingly, the acquisition cost will be high. Want more on Smith? Read this.
2. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants: This version of Bumgarner shares quite a few attributes with the vintage article, but there are some telltale signs of age and wear. He’s posting an 11.6% swinging-strike rate, but is allowing 1.35 home runs per nine. He’s back over 92 mph with his average fastball, but opposing hitters have an 89.7 mph exit velocity and 43.4% hard-hit rate (career-worst figures for MadBum). He’s affordable, but not a bargain at a $12MM annual salary. Bumgarner is a very good and highly likely trade candidate, but probably not a top-shelf rental starter who’ll draw high-end prospect talent.
3. Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays: “Controllable starter” alert! Everybody wants those, it seems. The 28-year-old is earning $7.4MM this year with another arb campaign remaining. While the Jays could hold if they fancy a shot at contention next year, or see a path to an extension, it seems like a good opportunity to cash in a pitcher that has had some ups and downs. The inconsistencies and acquisition cost will be of concern, but Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards just explained why just about every team in baseball ought to have some level of interest in the grounder-heavy righty.
4. Justin Smoak, 1B/DH, Blue Jays: Did you miss on Encarnacion? Well, perhaps a cheaper, somewhat younger, switch-hitting piece whose more capable of playing first base would be a better fit. Smoak now stands out as the top rental bat, as he’s turning in a third-straight productive season at the plate at an affordable $8MM salary.
5. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres: The Friars are putting out word they’d need to be overwhelmed to deal Yates, who is the organization’s latest ultra-successful salvage reliever. But the fact that the club is interested in fielding offers at all represents an indication of a potential willingness to deal on a player who comes with another season of arb control. Yates has arguably been the best reliever in baseball this year and he’s earning peanuts. There ought to be some competition once Ken Giles of the Blue Jays is back from the IL, but for now Yates appears to be the top potential relief target.
6-7. Tony Watson (Giants) & Jake Diekman (Royals), RP: It’s hard to imagine that these southpaws won’t change uniforms this summer. Watson has flaunted his exceptional command by leading the league with a ridiculous 42.9% chase rate and walking less than a batter per nine. He’s easily worth his own healthy $6.5MM payday. The deal also includes some not-insignificant incentive pay based upon appearances, along with a player option that provides Watson with injury/performance protection, so that’ll factor in to the trade return. Diekman has by some measures been better than ever. The 32-year-old is humming along at a 17.3% swinging-strike rate. He’s dishing out a typically hefty volume of walks, but is showing some added promise in that regard by throwing first strikes at a career-best 61.9% clip. Diekman is amply affordable, too. He’s promised just $2.25MM this year, with a $500K payout for a 2020 mutual option.
8. Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Tigers: Though his age advantage isn’t quite as relevant in a rental scenario, the 27-year-old does offer some benefits over the hitters noted above. He has reeled off a string of quality seasons at the plate and is an increasingly palatable outfield defender, thus increasing his potential roster matches. The $9.95MM salary shouldn’t be much of a barrier. Castellanos has also boosted his output since a tepid start, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him climb this board in the weeks to come.
9-10. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers; Whit Merrifield, INF/OF, Royals: If we were ranking possibly available players by trade value alone, these two would take the top spots. Boyd is turning in a breakout effort in his Super Two season, leaving three years of highly valuable control remaining. Merrifield has only further established himself as a quiet star who’d fit on every roster in baseball. He’s also now inked to a contract that made sense for him but also unlocked yet more value for the K.C. organization. Just how willing these organizations are to deal these players remains to be seen, but both are sure to draw widespread interest and significant offers.
11-12. Sam Dyson (Giants) & Shane Greene (Tigers), RP: Good setup men are always in demand, so these experienced high-leverage hurlers will hold appeal. Neither has to be dealt, with a season of arb control remaining, but the time feels right for a move in both cases. Neither is a dominant strikeout pitcher, but both feature quality K/BB numbers and good groundball rates. Dyson is earning his $5MM salary with 32 frames of 2.53 ERA pitching that’s fully supported by his peripherals (8.4 K/9 vs. 1.4 BB/9, 59.3% groundball rate). Greene isn’t going to keep up an absurd 0.96 ERA, but he is certainly throwing the ball well (9.3 K/9 vs. 2.6 BB/9, 51.4% groundball rate). He’s a nice piece at a $4MM salary with another arb year to go.
13-14. Tanner Roark (Reds) & Jordan Lyles (Pirates), SP: We’re not going to bury these NL Central competitors just yet, as they are still within striking distance and won’t want to sell if they don’t have to. But both face uphill battles and it’ll be awfully tempting to cash in on some veterans, particularly those on expiring contracts. Roark has exceeded expectations in Cincinnati and could be a nice piece this summer if the division is truly out of reach. Ditto Lyles, who is currently on a brief injured list respite but is already penciled in for a return start later this week. Roark is earning a hefty but fair $10MM salary, while Lyles is promised just $2.05MM on the year.
15. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants: We already took a look recently at the Panda, who’s available for sale or rent. TL;DR: If you’re a team of means by no means, he just might make you king of the road. (Sandoval has a 142 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, thus supporting my over-played cultural reference. Here’s a split of greater real-world relevance: the switch-hitter has been much better against right-handed pitching.)
16-17. Alex Colome (White Sox) & Mychal Givens (Orioles), RP: Though he’s carrying a 2.30 ERA, Colome is unlikely to maintain a .113 BABIP-against. With anticipated regression mixed in, the 30-year-old looks like much the same pitcher he has always been. It’s nice that he has been doing a solid job in the closer’s role for the White Sox, but that’s not going to sway many GMs in this day and age. He’s eligible for arbitration in 2020 but is already earning a hefty $7,325,000 salary. With the White Sox hoping to stay in the race this year and increase their competitiveness next season, there are some scenarios where Colome ends up staying in Chicago. You could say the same of Givens. While the O’s lack any reason for holding onto him for his immediate MLB value, he could be held in hopes of a bounceback. Givens is earning only $2.15MM this year and is controllable for two more seasons. You might wonder whether he’s even really marketable at this point. I’d argue he is. Though he has been shredded by home runs, along with the rest of the Orioles staff, Givens is sitting at a customary 95+ mph with his heater and is getting swings and misses at a career-best 14.9% rate. Plenty of teams around the game would love to get ahold of Givens and his powerful right arm.
18-19. Corey Dickerson & Melky Cabrera OF, Pirates: The Bucs are in much the same position as the Reds. We’re in no rush to say they can’t make a run. But the word is that the Pirates are interested in moving Dickerson even as they field offers on Cabrera. That’s a bit odd in some respects, given that the former is younger, is a more capable fielder, and has a better recent overall recent past at the plate. But the Pirates may prefer Cabrera from a value perspective, while some other teams may rather have Dickerson even though he costs more. Regardless, roster pressures are pushing a move of some kind here even if the Pittsburgh org tries to remain competitive past the trade deadline.
20. Andrew Cashner, SP, Orioles: Did I say starting pitcher? In that role, Cashner has been a marginal performer. And he’s earning $8MM with some incentives available for more. (Cashner almost certainly won’t throw enough innings for his 2020 option to vest.) It’s tough to imagine a contender viewing him as a big rotation upgrade after 70 1/3 innings of 4.73 ERA ball on the heels of a poor 2018 showing, but he could function as a fill-in piece down the stretch. Much more intriguing is the possibility of moving Cashner into a flexible relief capacity, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has argued. Cashner is sitting at 94 with his four-seamer and his change has become a weapon; perhaps he’ll finally find his calling in a new-age role. The O’s will probably have to eat money and won’t be able to hold out for a huge return, but there ought to be some interest in a market that could end up being rather weak in rental pitching.
21-22. Dee Gordon (2B) & Mike Leake (SP), Mariners: Gordon is doing enough at the plate for his speed to play. His defensive metrics have faded but perhaps scouts still believe in the glovework. Leake is also still a useful player, tallying a 4.14 ERA over 95 2/3 innings despite allowing 2.07 homers per nine. Both are quite expensive, but the M’s have already proven capable of sorting out the financials in deals involving Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion. Leake’s no-trade rights will play a role in his market situation.
23-24. Danny Duffy (Royals) & Jeff Samardzija (Giants), SP: Duffy is owed $15MM and change for this year and the two that follow; Shark is earning $18MM this season and next. Neither has been especially impressive this year, and both have shown velocity declines, but they’re each functioning as capable starters who could be useful pieces this year and into the future. Their respective clubs will need to eat money and temper expectations on the prospect side if they’re to make deals.
25-26. Trey Mancini (Orioles) & Hunter Renfroe (Padres), OF: The Baltimore org is “open to anything” when it comes to its best player, while the San Diego outfit is willing to consider scenarios involving its own corner outfield slugger, who has drawn interest. Both of these players are going into arbitration this fall, the latter as a Super Two, so there’s no real rush from that perspective. For the O’s, it’ll be tempting to cash in one of the org’s few desirable deadline pieces. For the Friars, there’s an outfield logjam that will ultimately have to be cleared in some manner.
27-30. Craig Stammen (Padres), Francisco Liriano (Pirates), David Hernandez & Jared Hughes (Reds): Here we have a group of affordable, grey-haired vets who have generally been on nice late-career kicks. These guys will all be surefire trade candidates — if their teams decide to fold up shop. There’s still some uncertainty there, but it seems quite likely that several (if not all) of these hurlers will swap uniforms this summer.
31. Mike Minor, SP, Rangers: The window for a Minor deal is getting smaller even as his value increases. It’ll be hard for the Texas club to move him so long as it has a plausible shot at a Wild Card berth, particularly with a new ballpark on the horizon. Minor could instead be targeted for an extension, either over the summer or in the offseason to come. Trade offers may prove tempting, making for some tough tradeoffs for the Rangers front office to weigh.
32. Freddy Galvis, SS, Blue Jays: The switch-hitting shortstop is taking down $4MM this year with a $1MM buyout for 2020. Galvis has fallen way off his hot early pace and presently carries a .254/.293/.425 slash. He does feature a capable glove and has been known to run into a pitch (ten home runs in 266 plate appearances this season). It’s not a terribly exciting profile, but it’s also quite easy to imagine Galvis filling a useful role for the right contender. He ranks above the next group of names because he’s likelier to be moved as a pure rental on a no-doubt seller.
33-35. Derek Dietrich (Reds), Tim Beckham (Mariners) & Jonathan Villar (Orioles), INF: This year’s market does have some interesting infield pieces. Why go for a boring, glove-only piece when you can add some potential fireworks? All three of these players come with one additional season of arbitration control, effectively delivering floating-value, zero-buyout options to an acquiring team. Dietrich has been electric at the plate and can play multiple positions. While he’s not known as a strong defender, the metrics have graded him as average at second base thus far in 2019. He’s earning only $2MM this year. While Cincy second baseman Scooter Gennett is nearing a return, he’s also slated for free agency at season’s end. The other two orgs are in more obvious seller stances, but also have reasons to want to hang onto these players. Beckham is a questionable defender at short, but he’s earning only $1.75MM and has real power along with a propensity for hot streaks. He could well fit the M’s roster in 2020. Villar would seem the likeliest to be cashed in, though the O’s will want to maintain some standards at the MLB level. He’s a well-regarded and versatile defender who has some home run pop of his own along with excellent speed. Villar is owed $4.825MM for the season.
36-37. Ian Kennedy (Royals) & Mark Melancon (Giants), RP: These two righties are vastly overpayed for their present ability levels, but that won’t preclude swaps. The former has found new life as a reliever; while he carries only a 3.86 ERA through 28 innings, he’s working at a highly promising combination of 11.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. It’s the opposite case for Melancon, whose useful 3.49 ERA in 28 1/3 frames is not quite supported by the peripherals. He is sporting a 61.0% groundball rate but has seen his typically stingy walk rate jump to 3.8 per nine and he’s only managing 7.6 K/9 as his chase rate continues to plummet.
38-39. Felipe Vazquez (Pirates) & Raisel Iglesias (Reds), RP: It’ll take a concerted effort to pry one of these arms free. That hasn’t happened in the past, though these two NL Central relievers often end up on these lists. These clubs may well fall out of the race by the time July draws to a close, but they’ll still be hoping for near-term contention thereafter. Vazquez and Iglesias are each pitching on cost-efficient contracts. The former is especially valuable, as he’s among the game’s best lefty relief arms and is cheaply controlled through 2023. The latter hasn’t been quite as dominant and his deal isn’t as appealing (it runs through 2021), but those factors perhaps also make him a more achievable target for contenders.
40-41. Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants & Wil Myers, OF, Padres: In theory, each of these players can appear at the position stated for the other. But they’re most likely to be considered at the spots listed. Both have hefty contracts that aren’t likely to be picked up in full. In the case of Belt, concussion worries create long-term risk. As for Myers, he just hasn’t performed to the levels he’s being paid. But it’s not hard to imagine both players being of interest. Belt is back to being an under-appreciated hitter, with a .248/.372/.461 slash and nine home runs over 250 plate appearances. Though Myers is humming along at a league-average clip with the bat, he has historically performed at about ten percent above league average at the plate, offers real defensive versatility, and can add value with his legs on the bases.
42-43. Kevin Pillar (Giants) & Billy Hamilton (Royals), OF: These are specialized, glove-and-run pieces who’d only make sense for certain clubs. But there’s often a need for such players. Pillar and Hamilton haven’t proven capable of commanding regular time but could be handy reserve pieces.
44. Adam Duvall, OF, Braves: After a brutal late-season run last year, Duvall was somewhat surprisingly tendered by the Braves. He hasn’t been needed in the majors despite raking at Triple-A. With a $2,875,000 salary, he’s an expensive back-up plan. It’ll be tempting to shed the remaining obligation and trade in his remaining two years of team control to help pay for other desired upgrades. Duvall could hold appeal to some contenders, particularly those that want their purchase to come with future value, or be sent to a rebuilding outfit.
45-46. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox & Alex Gordon, OF, Royals: Why aren’t they higher?! How can you even put them on this list?! There are two sides to this coin. Both of these pending free agents would be of real interest to contenders, as they’re highly respected veterans that are performing well in 2019. Large salary obligations are but a point of negotiation. Thing is, the Sox have continued to indicate that they see an ongoing connection with Abreu. And the situation is similar for Gordon and the Royals, with the added complication that he has no-trade rights and a disinclination to move. That said, things can always change, so they command a spot on the list for the time being.
47-48. Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets & Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: These NL East rivals seem less likely to pack it in on July 31st than some of the other sub-.500 teams whose players feature above. After entering the season with big payrolls and bigger expectations, it’d be awfully tough to admit defeat unless the odds are truly insurmountable. That said, Wheeler and Rendon would arguably be the top pure rental players available if they hit the market, so they claim back-of-the-list spots. These clubs each have other conceivable rental pieces as well as more controllable stars. It seems premature to begin batting around concepts involving players such as Noah Syndergaard and Max Scherzer.
49-50. Trevor Bauer (SP) & Brad Hand (RP), Indians: It has been said that the Indians are “poised” to listen on these two excellent hurlers, but what does that really mean at this stage of the season? The Cleveland club may have miscalculated on the division-leading Twins, but it also sits at 4 games over .500 after weathering some major injuries and surprising performance issues. It’ll be a tall order to run down their rivals from Minnesota, but it’s not out of the question. And a Wild Card berth remains amply plausible. While it will prove tempting to consider some repositioning moves to bring in more affordable/controllable assets, that’s awfully hard to do when you’re a strong postseason contender.
Injured List
Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Mitch Haniger (Mariners), Jose Urena, Neil Walker, Martin Prado & Caleb Smith (Marlins), Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Tyson Ross & Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Alex Wood & Scooter Gennett (Reds)
Watch List
Blue Jays: Daniel Hudson, Joe Biagini, Aaron Sanchez, David Phelps, Eric Sogard
Orioles: Shawn Armstrong, Dylan Bundy
Tigers: Niko Goodrum, JaCoby Jones, Gordon Beckham
Royals: Brad Boxberger, Wily Peralta, Lucas Duda, Jorge Soler, Brad Keller, Scott Barlow, Jakob Junis, Terrance Gore, Martin Maldonado
Mariners: Domingo Santana, Roenis Elias, Cory Gearrin, Wade LeBlanc
Marlins: Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Sergio Romo, Adam Conley, Wei-Yin Chen
Giants: Reyes Moronta, Joe Panik, Stephen Vogt, Drew Pomeranz, Derek Holland, Trevor Gott
White Sox: Kelvin Herrera, Yolmer Sanchez, Yonder Alonso, Welington Castillo, Ivan Nova, Evan Marshall, James McCann
Padres: Manuel Margot, Robbie Erlin
Pirates: Kyle Crick, Steven Brault, Chris Archer, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte
Nationals: Max Scherzer, Sean Doolittle, Howie Kendrick, Yan Gomes, Matt Adams
Mets: Noah Syndergaard, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Todd Frazier, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jason Vargas
Angels: Tommy La Stella, Kole Calhoun, Jonathan Lucroy
Reds: Yasiel Puig, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, Zach Duke, Jose Iglesias
Cubs: Ian Happ
Yankees: Clint Frazier
No Clint Frazier?
He’s more a trade asset for a contender than a target for another contender. I suppose he could’ve gone on in the same general spirit that I included Duvall, but it’s just a bit of a different angle than we typically take with this. Worth pondering for the future lists, though.
I’m interested in how much value Duvall really represents. Could he be used as a main piece in a move to help sure up that pen? The vibe you get from these comment sections is he has negative value, but let’s be real, most of us commenters don’t know what the hell were talking about.
Duvall has absolutely zero value. At most someone might take a shot on him to give the Braves salary relief, but even then it’s a long shot.
I don’t think he has significant value by any stretch, but he’d be of interest in the right situation. The guy has had his moments at times. Might help move the needle, even if mostly just to offset salary.
Definitely think the likes of Frazier should be included on the list; He’s certainly among the most-likely deadline trade candidates, and a really interesting part of the conversation. Not that you’d need to include prospects, many of whom will definitely trade hands, but he’s no longer a prospect (even if he’s currently hanging out in AAA). Otherwise, as you note, just re-title the list (and similar lists) as the Guys Most Likely to Be Traded Away by Sellers
It is a somewhat unusual situation that we don’t see often, since most such players are not under consideration to be traded. I know he isn’t a prospect, per se, but the question is whether he’s basically just trade capital for the Yanks or whether he’s a potential target of a contending team. I can certainly see paths for him to end up on a contender, so I may just work him in.
padres could use #3, 9 & 10. #41 going nowhere
Considering what Preller has said and done the last few years I would say the answers on those are:
No on 3 because he is a FA at the end of the year. Padres are looking for long term fits, not rentals.
No on 9 because he has never been good before 2019 and is already declining in 2019 with a 5.63 ERA in his 3 starts in June. Career 4.80 ERA.
No on 10 because Merrifield is 30 years old and destined to decline soon, Kinsler has played well since mid-May (.323/.389/.538/.927), and Urias is in AAA playing extremely well.
Stroman has another year of arbitration still.
Stroman has another year of arbitration.
Why are met players on this list?! We are not selling!!!!!
They are 3 games under, so it’d be foolish not to consider that as a possibility. I’m not remotely suggesting they are going to sell those guys right now. In fact, I wrote precisely the opposite in this very post.
Thank you for your honestly. Also reported for spreading rumors.
Um, to whom are your reporting MLBtraderumors for spreading rumors?
the flag button. I hate people who spread false rumors to make the mets look bad.
Cute. But please stop abusing the reporting function.
The Mets need no ones help to look bad. Stop being a homer.
Next step is just being banned, dude. There’s no rumor. Your internet shtick would be more effective if it came with basic logical reasoning ability.
I just started posting here but its already obvious to me that all this guy is doing is trolling the site especially Yankees fans.
This is really stupid. Any team under 500, 7 games back is going to be considered as a possible seller. Nobody is saying they can’t turn things around. You need to except the reality that at this moment the Mets don’t look like contenders.
But the Mets are bad tho fella
I don’t think he grasps the actual title of site
The Mets do a good job on their own of looking bad.
Reported.
What happened with slack???!!
@mets2020 oh the hilarity!!! “I’m going to report you, the writer of this article, to your employer, MLBTradeRumors, for spreading *gasp* RUMORS, ie. doing your job, because my team isn’t good.”
Face it, bud, there are only 5 teams with a worse record than the Mets in the National League and 2 of them are only behind by 1 game. Your teams best players are trade targets, period.
We now know the name BVW goes by here…
WAGON WHEEL!!!!! Where is Mike Yank!!!
I’m a Mets fan, and I was actually surprised there weren’t more Mets on the list. I don’t think they’re dumping Mickey any time soon, so I don’t think they’ll really get any better between now and July 31. Selling should be a possibility.
Vargas, Frazier, Lagares, Familia, Cano (yuck!) etc. I’d move ’em all. Won’t get much in return, but maybe they can luck into a Jeff McNeill type? You know, the kind of guy who got no love from the scouts but performed in the minors and just needed a chance in the Show.
Jeff, who do you see the Brewers getting at the deadline. They need starting pitching clearly but first base is a hole right now. Shaw and Aguilar have looked better as of late but still not their 2018 self.
Too exhausted from trying to round up the supply side to think about specific team needs … ask me next week!
I appreciate the article. Nice work thanks for taking the time. I know it was a lot of work.
Jays should also consider dealing Eric Sogard, meaning he better be traded at the deadline.
he was in the watch list… I thought he would have been ahead of Galvis.
Not when I posted. They added him and Phelps between the time I posted my message and the time you did. Thanks.
funny. he said he’d add the player in other cases where he added them. sorry ’bout that!
No prob. It was odd having Galvis and not Sogard when teams would rather have Sogard because of production and contract.
I don’t know that anyone is going to be bowled over completely by a hot stretch from Sogard, who has bounced around. Meanwhile, Galvis continues to be tasked with starting shortstop duties by second-tier clubs, which says a lot about how the market views him.
agreed but they will not be bowled over by Galvis either. the point is really that Galvis is, likely, slightly less attractive as a trade acquisition.
Jeff I don’t disagree. I think it will all depend on overall health on the infield of contending teams. Doubt there’d be much return for either guy due to inconsistency, a small sample from Sogard and too many rookie-type mental blunders from two veteran players. For the Blue Jays its all about creating playing time for Bichette, possibly Urena and full 2B time for Biggio.
Sogart is an interesting case. While I dont think the return will be too big, it will be interesting to see if they can get at least an upside guy like Thornton. The sample is now getting close to 50 games on Sogart, he has been good and that hot streak is getting some length to it.
I believe you could see the Astros get involved with either of these two if Correa and Diaz continue to be slowed in return from IL. Plus the obvious relationship of the Jays and Stros recent trade history.
I would love for the A’s to make a play for Dee Gordon as he could cover 2b and play some in the outfield and provide a contact hitting speed threat that they have been lacking.. I think he would add more to the team than Grossman or Profar although they have both been picking it up in recent weeks.
Yuck, why would we take on that contract? He’s not a good player, and any value his speed could possibly have exists in Jorge Mateo, who can play the same positions.
We need relievers, not ANOTHER middle infielder/outfielder. We have enough of those in AAA just waiting for their shot. Plus that contract.
Please, please, Mr Huntington. Recoup what you can for Archer. Every time he pitches it reminds me of what a horrible trade you made.
Big Data Baseball Ⅱ : Rehab,Rental,and the End of a 200-IP Losing Control
I’d read that.
I want to see JD go all in and get 1,2 and 11!
Shane Greene is a closer. 20 for 21 in saves. Not a setup arm…
I agree he has been recording saves with the Tigers.
When you say with the Tigers do you mean his game/pitching may not translate to a contending team considering the type of pressure a closer has to endure?
I think a lack of a track record also comes into play here
He’s currently closing for a team with little expectations and without a history of performing in high pressure situations. So how another team may value him is largely unrelated to his current role
So just sticking a ‘closer’ label on him doesn’t change much in the grand scheme
That clears it up for me. Thank you. I appreciate the feedback.
What he’s saying is that Greene would most likely not be a closer for the acquiring team. Often closers from bad teams get acquired to secure the 7th or 8th on a contending team.
Greene has done that before. He set up for Justin Wilson in ’17 and did very well. 2.66 era in 67 innings. He had a rough year last year his first year as closer, but he has stepped up this year. Closer is a position few can master. Looks like he can do either if needed.
sorry, I wasnt trying to be an A hole. I really meant that. it really did clear it up.
@ petrie000 apologies if I appeared to be sarcastic. What you said really did make sense. Just saying I’m not one of those.
No, I just mean that he has been utilized in that role with that team, but won’t necessarily be seen as the top relief pitcher with a contender. Greene isn’t exactly a shut-down strikeout type of guy. And most contenders will either have someone else that is, or will target someone else who is.
Reminds me of Brandon Kintzler a few years ago. Nats acquired him and made him their #2 setup guy: mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/nationals-acquire-brand…
Okay thanks. I’ll read up on him. It’s always interesting this time of the season to try to get a grasp on the mindset of the general managers. Not an easy task. Thanks again for the info.
What about Maldonado?
Martin? He’d be worth putting on the watch list, thanks.
If the Cards could acquire Dickerson, Boyd, and Smith they wouldn’t just be filling glaring holes, they would block their competitors, Cubs and Brewers who have similar needs. All three? Doubtful of course, but it does make sense.
What kind of return would be needed for Reyes Moronta?
Not arbitration eligible until 2021, so the Giants would be trading several years of control. Moronta has been reliable but not dominating. I would say a lower tiered prospect and lottery ticket type might get it done.
A little surprised James McCann didn’t even make the watch list. Cheap, extra year of control and several teams could use a back-up C. Paired with Colome and/or Leury Garcia they may be able to net something better than fringe org filler.
He’s worth adding, agree. Always some guys that we miss in canvassing. It is a massive undertaking!
Great job non the less Todd!
I’d be very surprised if the White Sox decide to trade James McCann. He has more value to us than anyone considering how well he has done with Giolito.
The only Sox player I could see being traded is Alex Colome or maybe Leury Garcia.
I really think that most will be very surprised to see what a Madbum deal could fetch. I’d bet most GM’s realize that a now healthy Bum with no decline in velocity from his hey day and a proven ability to truly turn it up in the post-season can make the difference in winning a WS championship. They therefore will give up a very good player(s) for even a half-season of control. Just remember, I told you so, when I come back and say “I told you so.” 🙂
I agree 100% statman. The Giants will NOT trade him for just anybody, there going to get premium talent or, they just keep him, offer a 1 year qualifying offer which he most likely would reject and when he signs in the off season they will get the draft pick.
According to statcast, MadBums two seamer is averaging 91.7 mph. Is that his usual? At the moment he looks like a no.3 pitcher. His last seven games he has an ERA of 3.74. In his last three he’s allowed 7 runs on 21 innings. His 3.98 FIP seems to confirm that his ERA isnt an aberation and his recent work doesnt scream at me that he’s returned to being an ace.
The only people who are likely to be surprised are the Giants fans… And ‘horrified’ may be a better term.
GM’s these days are an unemotional bunch as a rule. They won’t pay extra for potential post season performance unless the Giants promise a refund if said team doesn’t make the playoffs.
Would love to see my Phillies get Bumgarner. he makes any clubhouse better the moment he walks through the door. In terms of leadership, Phils took a mega punch to the gut when McCutchen went down in what can best be described as a “The-Day-The-Music-Died” kind of moment. They haven’t been the same since.
Statcast clearly indicates that MadBum has lost a full 2 MPH on his snot rockets since 2016 which should be a real concern for any GM who is expecting vintage Bumgarner 😉
I think the Halos consider dealing Skaggs and/or Robles if they fall out of contention.
The Angels should have traded Skaggs last July, when he had everyone fouled by the stretch he had last year. I would keep Robles, still have a couple of years before he is a free agent. With the Angels finally getting healthy, they could make a run.
Reds Jose Iglesias has been solid this year and provides quality defense. I could see a contender like the Twins or Athletics trading for his defense. (From a WAR perspective he has more than Galvis, who’s ranked on this list)
Jays are far more likely to trade a player like that, hence the ranking. But I agree he should be listed in the bottom section.
Terrance Gore is a very interesting candidate indeed.
Dear Braves, any bullpen help 12 up is acceptable. Colome is fine also. But don’t get caught doing nothing with this team. An embarrassing miss with kimbrel. Kimbrel was the cheap option at this point… now is when it gets very expensive
Ya, I have to agree. With several contenders looking for bullpen help, someone like W.Smith is going to be in demand. He might be a rental but this market makes it look like the Giants can still demand a kings ransom.
The Brave bats can maul any pitcher on a given night. Their starting pitching got better with Keuchel. The bullpen? Might be the worst in baseball among contenders. The pen hasn’t burnt them big time yet, but you know there’s gonna be a reckoning at some point. Luke Jackson? Spare me! Pay what the Giants want for Will Smith and complete the puzzle. The bullpen arms already on board ain’t gonna get any better, save for Minder (They hope.).
Highlight of the Giants season so far is having 5 of the top 15 candidates on the list.
Time for Farhan to start earning that paycheck.
Amir Garrett is going nowhere, Iglaises is a possibility though…
Do you have the GM’s ear?
No athletics on here? They trying to make a run still? Maybe flip Treinen with a year plus left. Trade high on Hendriks while it lasts? Curious to see the Padres and not the A’s on here though
There’s no clear place to draw lines, but the situations are notably different. There have been recent reports on the Padres being willing to sell certain players under certain circumstances. (Likewise the Indians.) And they are not only buried in their division, but are facing a huge number of WC competitors. The A’s have a tough path back as well, but they also have 3 premium starters moving toward the majors on rehab and less WC competitors to worry about (albeit several very strong ones). They also don’t have any high-end, use-it-or-lose-it players, which is the only reason the Nats and Mets put guys on the list (at the very back end).
I’d say the A’s are on the radar … if they have a tough stretch they could move on the list as we update it.
If anything I’d think the A’s would be trading spare parts guys like Grossman, Profar and Pinder. When Murphy comes back soon many of Phegley, Hermann, Taylor and Hundley are dust. They have plenty of cheaper better options in the minors in Martini, Barreto, Fowler, Neuse, Bolt and Mateo.
Not to mention that Jonah Heim could very well insert himself as a valuable backup to Murphy. Started hitting with us last season and made his way up to Double A. Rough start in Double A, but he turned it around this year. Now just up to Triple A for the first time and he’s still hitting, as a guy that was long considered a defense first backstop that would never hit.
However, I don’t think they’ll get much value out of Pinder, since he’s sort of fallen off and elite defense in left is just kind of whatever in terms of value. If they feel they can get better production they’ll stash him in Triple A. I kind of foresee that happening with Barreto, who can play the same positions as Pinder, with the exception of first base. I also don’t really see them trading any pitching, unless they’re convinced they can outbid teams for premium relievers this offseason. The A’s will have a couple of years to spend on relievers before they have to seriously think about the arbitration salary increases of Chapman and Olson.
It’d be interesting to see how other teams value Profar…who obviously has been talked about for years, but not in the best light. This year he has shown a bit more, but he is still a gamble because his name is bigger than his stats.
Hanks for the response I love the feedback and everything you do on the site. Keep it up.
Much appreciated.
The Braves are irrelevant unless they trade for Bum and 2 bullpen arms. Get rid of Gausman, Touki, Wright, Teheran.
Hear that beeping noise ? That’s the Giants backing the truck up.
You been paying attention to MadBums production? He is holding steady at a no.3 pitchers production. The Braves have plenty of that.
I agree that they should sell high on Julio Teheran but what is wrong with Toussaint? Just a reliever or…?
Pretty good list. Kudos!
Padres want to dump Myers and Kinsler… (most likely because they have a glut of outfielders and Urias is waiting for playing time). Could a trade be possible for Tigers sending some bullpen help… Farmer and Hardy and the Padres sending back Myers Kinsler and a couple prospects (Allen & Morejon)? Tigers add payroll but get a couple top prospects. Padres make room for youth and $ for free agents. It would also give the Tigers a 2B and 1B where they have nothing.
If not, could a Zimmermann for Myers and Kinsler be possible? Maybe Padres throw in a prospect and Tigers add a reliever?
Another trade Myers proposal! Why would Tigers go near that contract and player
In order to get two top prospects. That’s what they want the most. They have plenty of salary room to add a player like Myers. He could play first while Miggy moves to DH because of his health. Tigers have 3 players on their entire team with a 100 + OPS. One starter, Cabrera, and the Dixon and Beckham. Myers is a 99 and Kinsler is a 85. There is plenty of room on this team to add two major league players… Harrison is a 28. Lugo 47 and Castro at 55.
If the Padres could add Machado even with those contracts, I highly doubt they’re so desperate to shed salary that they’d waste future value to get rid of them
Oh I think they would. Kinsler isn’t much… $3.75 next year, so no biggie there. Myers jumps from 5 mil to 22.5 mil next year. Then 22.5 for 2 more years. That’s quite a chunk. They could easily add a top starter for that kind of money and Myers really doesn’t have a position. Myers would be the Tigers 1B… they have no one even close to step in. Plus they add a couple top lefty starters to their stable of starting pitchers on the way.
Fans always think those kind of deals make sense. GM’s not so much because they rarely happen and when they do it rarely turns out to have been a good idea.
Burning prospects to free up money to spend on free agents is never that appealing to a front office. If the guy you want turns you down, you just gave up good prospects for nothing.
This is why they’d rather just eat money to move a guy. It’s a lot more straight forward, and straight forward is good for job security.
“Burning prospects to free up money….” There is at least one GM who is all about this approach….good ‘ol Brodie w. the NY Mets. Their front office have traded away 10+ MiLB pitchers in the past year and a half, but have little to show for it.
1B is where Dixon gets most of his playing time. Plus 1B is usually a cheap piece to pick up in FA to get Myers like production or better. Once Castro gets called up, Goodrum will move to 2B. Keep Myers.
I can’t believe anyone thinks this would be a bad idea for the Tigers. I think the package is just stupid lopsided against the Padres. Those two relievers, Farmer and Hardy, are having terrible years. I wouldnt send the Tigers a bag pf baseballs for them, let alone two top prospects and the only additional payment they make to get them is provide payroll reliefe.
Farmer and Hardy are guys everyone already has. They are AAA pitchers that are called on when pitching is thin. Tigers would be getting Kinsler and Myers as basically free agents. An incentive to take these two bad contracts the Padres will include two prospects. Not great prospects, but decent ones. Pitching prospects are high risk. It’s also a position of depth for the Padres. 7 of their top 10 prospects are pitchers. 4 of their 6 main starters are under 25. The other two are 26 and 27.
I have no idea why anyone would think the Tigers would say no.
It’s similar to the Cano trade. No one wanted Cano. Add a top player to the trade (Diaz) and they’d take him. Many said Homer Bailey and Puig and Kemp couldn’t be traded. They were. Some said Bruce couldn’t be moved. He was. Twice.
Myers can be moved and he should be moved.
Do you think Whit Merrifield would be enough to get at least 1 top 100 prospect (and another couple of prospects) such as Bohm from the Phillies or one of the pitchers from the Padres (Patino, Morejon, Allen, Baez)?
Or am I overvaluing Merrifield?
Merrifield did just hit 30 and his primary position is 2B. You need a team that has a huge hole at 2B. The Phillies don’t, but do have one at 3B. Alec Bohm is their only blue chip prospect and plays 3B. He’d be tough to pry for Merrifield.
If Odubel is toast, Phils need a true CF. have zero confidence Roman Quinn can stay on the field, much less hit. Not a fan of middle infielders in their 30s. Unlike fine wine and cheese, they don’t age very well.
Merrifield is 30 years old and his game depends on speed. The legs are the first things to go. He is not terribly valuable. I doubt it happens butthe Royals may get a top 100 prospect for him, just not one that is rated as highly as Bohm, Patino, or Morejon.
The team who needs Merrifield the most at 2B is CLE, but unfortunately they have a $15M immovable mannequin stationed there in Kipnis.
Padres stick with Kinsler or Urias before they trade for Merrifield.
Great job Todd! It is a massive undertaking of course some players will be missed!
Like to find a taker for Archer and put that debacle behind us.
Maybe the Rays will give you Glasssnow/Meadows/Baz for Archer…nah, who’d be that dumb…..
They would do good to get a couple of AA pitchers.
Speaking of value, why haven’t we come up with a “contract value” metric yet?
Part years left/control, part career WAR, part best single season WAR, part notable improvements made over a long period of time?
Good idea. I’d like to see salary factored in as well.
Great idea.
I’ve toyed with creating better metrics than using some flavor of WAR for a quick 10,000 foot view. Part of the issue of putting together a new metric is to at least attempt to validate it from a statistical perspective. I have considered ranking players within their position, combined with avg salary, looking at the standard deviation of both to get an idea of the distribution within each position. The lazy approach would be to then group the players into quartiles and then try and tackle the salary side. Most likely I’d have to figure out a within group value (rookie, arb, and FA) because the differences between groups would likely be pretty significant. I’m certain clubs have run similar numbers in prior years because the focus on extending guys on their rookie deals has taken off. Even if there is a slight overpay in future dollars, I’m pretty darn sure the numbers will bear out that nearly every club will come out ahead in those deals barring a catastrophic injury.
One of the advantages in baseball is the availability of large amounts of data. The other way to attack this would be to do a bunch of regression analyses and see what shakes out. Reverse engineering may have issues in academia, but in the biz of sports everything is fair game. I’ve been curious for awhile about if/how launch angle, ISO, and hard hit rate may or may not vary against higher velocity/max effort relievers v. starters. I’m sure most front office stats groups already have a pretty good idea, though for a team like MIN…it’d be very valuable considering the flame throwers they will face in the playoffs.
Expect Matthew Boyd to fade slowly to his normal numbers. Last week’s outing, you’ll see plenty more off. His stuff is low tier. IDK people are so high on this guy
The Tigers were playing exceptional defense in the beginning of the season but it has now fallen off drastically. Its hard to evaluate how good a pitcher is with two extreme opposite teams behind him.
The Tigers are currently piecemealing 2b and SS daily. Goodrum was average at best at 2b last year and is now the starting SS. Easy to understand why things have fallen off.
Field independent and advanced metrics disagree.
There’s very little to point to that says ‘hot streak’ and quite a bit that says ‘breakout’.
Marcell Ozuna, Matt Carpenter, Miles Mikolas, Jeff Gyorko…
*Jedd
I realize it is difficult to comprise such a list 6 weeks ahead of the July 31st trade deadline but the ranking of some of these names are a real head-scratcher.
As an example, if you are going to include a borderline seller like the White Sox by listing both Alex Colome and Jose Abreu in the top-50 how can James McCann be considered on the watch list? McCann possesses the same 1-1/2 years of arbitration eligible control as Colome only much cheaper with a 2019 salary of just $2.5M. While both Colome and Abreu are having fine seasons, neither play a premium position like McCann does as a starting catcher. McCann has long been considered one of MLB’s better defensive catchers and is putting up an All-Star 2019 season with his bat as well.
Fact is, the White Sox don’t need to trade any of the trio with Colome and McCann under team control in 2020, along with Abreu who is a decent extension candidate with his slugging and leadership ability on the South Side of Chicago. But with the White Sox still transitioning from rebuilders to contenders you better believe that GM Rick Hahn will be fielding offers for all three this summer. If the White Sox are content to sell low on another similarly controllable catcher in Wellington Castillo why wouldn’t they also consider selling high on McCann, to say nothing of Colome and Abreu?
Despite the nice collection of promising young talent on their MLB roster and in their top-10 rated minor league system it’s not as if the White Sox don’t have some serious question marks heading into their window of contention. As I see it, the team still needs to identify a couple of core left-handed hitters, a like number of quality southpaws for their future pitching staff as well as who their long term catcher might be. They could solve some or all these question marks much easier with a shrewd trade that might include McCann, Abreu and/or Colome as centerpieces.
Btw: Jon Jay might be another candidate to consider on the Injured List. He will likely conclude his rehab stint at AAA Charlotte some time this week which will give the White Sox 5-6 weeks in which to trade him to a contender looking for a decent veteran 4th outfielder. The White Sox don’t really have a need for Jay at this point with similar younger players like Leury Garcia and Charlie Tilson already on their active roster and performing nicely in their roles.
As the intro explains, trade likelihood is a key factor here. Cost and lack of control can make a guy more likely to be moved, even as it makes him less valuable.
I’d say Colome is a good example of that: do the White Sox really want to pay a big arb price for him next year after letting him rack up saves (and boost his arb earnings) all season? Or should they cash him in now, while he’s pitching well, and use the 2020 salary space to pursue alternatives?
For McCann, he’s playing well on a cheap base rate that’ll allow them to keep him next year via arb for a low price. If they like the way he’s interacting with the pitching staff, especially, they’ll want to maintain continuity. Why trade him when the return isn’t likely to be massive (teams will expect regression with the bat) and when you’ll end up having to go find another catcher next year?
I don’t see a losing scenario for the White Sox in hanging onto Colome, assuming of course he continues to perform at a high level. Sure his price tag increases in arbitration, but completing a solid year should bump up his market value as well, since the former is based on the latter. The deciding factor for Chicago (as with other teams in a similar situation) seems to be estimating whether they believe more teams are in need now than will be in the off-season.
I don’t know what they’ll do, but there’s definitely some downside. As I hinted in the post, he’s a glaring regression candidate. If he closes all year, he might cost over $10MM next year.
I won’t pretend to know either but whenever I hear about downside risk it’s almost always with the assumption that a player is traded too late, when in reality, trading too early can also be a downside risk. Taking the case of Colome, if he does close for the rest of the season and his arb salary takes a big jump as a result, the White Sox can market him as an experienced closer. How much that is worth in trade value is debatable, but it surely would be a value-added proposition.
The White Sox have minimal payroll concerns going forward. If they don’t move Alex Colome for a package deemed worthy this summer they will gladly hold on to him and pay his arbitration salary in 2020. It’s not as if the White Sox have an impending closer they can count on next season when they hope to contend. They drafted Zack Burdi in the first round of the 2016 June Draft and were grooming him for the closer role but he hit a road bump the following year with his TJ surgery. They still have high hopes for Burdi but closing may not be in the cards for the short term.
As for James McCann, the White Sox will also field offers for him and only settle for a solid package since he can also be a needed asset in 2020 for a team still seeking and trying to identify their core starting catcher going forward. Catchers with McCann’s resume don’t grow on trees. He’s always been fine defensively. He has always flashed power and this season his offense has gone to another level…All-Star caliber! He’s also young, just turning 29 this past week and extremely cheap. Like Jose Abreu, McCann could be a prime candidate for an extension with the White Sox who would surely value his leadership ability with a young and potentially elite starting rotation going forward.
My best guess is that the White Sox will ultimately hold on to all three of Colome, McCann and Abreu as the July 31st trade deadline comes and goes. But I can also see a scenario where GM Rick Hahn can extract a major haul in young MLB talent or near ready prospects involving any or all of this trio. A team like the Dodgers comes to mind, one that might actually benefit from each of these players as they look to finally win a World Series in 2019 after being bridesmaid the last two years. It’s not been the m.o. of the Dodgers to trade controllable young talent for short term veteran help but I can at least envision something coming together with LA., hopefully involving a left-handed bat like RF Alex Verdugo!
I think you are overvaluing this group of players, honestly.
Abreu is a good player that makes any team better, but there’s not really a want, need, or fit with the Dodgers. In terms of McCann, nobody is going to overpay for a half of offense. The Soxs probably hold onto both, because the value isn’t really there as one would assume. Now if McCann continues this pace for a season/season plus, I can definitely see a team taking a chance on him come the offseason/TDL. It’s pretty clear how much the FO values Smith, and he’s clearly waiting in the wings should Barnes continue to falter. What’s also clear, Dodgers have no intention to trade Verdugo now, as they are shifting pieces around to ensure he’s playing everyday upon the Pollock return. Will it work? I’m skeptical, but if it doesn’t they arent really looking for an Abreu. I just don’t honestly see the Soxs and Dodgers as good trade partners. It just appears as though the way this team is constructed they’ll live at the Top of the RP market, and probably target a multi positional bench bat, welcome back Howie. I don’t envision any of the 3 mentioned here being targeted other than backup plans.
Right now it’s the Dodgers again’st the Astros, I only see the Yanks as a possible party buster.
Thanks for putting this together. I’m surprised Zack Greinke is not on the list. I know AZ is still in wc contention, but as long as they fall back a bit I think they move Greinke while his value is high.
Jeff, thanks for this outstanding summary. I suspect that if the Giants get thrashed during this upcoming road trip (likely), Zaidi will begin moving more of the Giants’ pieces than we may expect, and soon, before any injuries scuttle the opportunity. He’s facing a unique opportunity to significantly upgrade their farm system in just one season, perhaps years ahead of schedule.
Hope you’re right. I’ve been wondering when their tear down is going to begin. Zaidi has a mess on his hands.
Appreciate it. I think he’s ready to deal whenever but will also be willing to take some light injury risk by holding guys until the deadline. Agree with your assessment — great opportunity here to cash in on guys.
Watched HighHeat this morning on the MLB network. Russo was going crazy about the Yankees not getting any premium pitching. Think their pitching staff is trash and not made for October. He’s absolutely convinced the Yankees need Madison Bumgarner for any shot in October. Big Stage Big Heart pitcher….
The Yankees passed the 2nd tier of the CBT and now have no 1st round pick (its now a 2nd round pick) and will pay a $15 million luxury tax bill. If they trade for someone like MadBum its going to go up and they may even pass the highest level of the CBT.
Why anyone watches Russo is the big mystery here…
Comic relief watching a babbling idiot foaming at the mouth…
Yates is the “top potential relief target” but Will Smith is listed #1 overall? What gives?
The reason might be because Will Smith is most likely to be traded as he will become a free agent after this year. While Yates is still controlled until after next season and is a perfect 24 for 24 in saves.
Yates is having a great year, but Smith has been slightly better over their careers. Yates’ ERA+ is 170 points higher this season than in his second best season. Regression would not be a surprise. Smith has been more consistent. Smith is 3 years younger, and a lefty. Given the choice, I’d take Smith over Yates.
It’s all in the intro. Smith is a pending free agent and a virtual certainty to be traded. Yates has a year of control remaining but has been the more dominant pitcher this year.
I think the Rangers deserve a spot on the watch list. Pence and Forsythe for sure make that cut. Danny Santana is a big maybe, and Shin Soo Choo might warrant some consideration despite his contract.
They will if and when things change. But they can’t punt on wild card position if they’re still in it. (I still expect them to fall back, personally, but we’ll see.)
no Zach Greinke? His salary is no longer an albatross.
Dbacks are 3 games over .500 and there haven’t been any whispers on Greinke. But he’d move into consideration if they fall back or we start seeing indication that he may be available over the next few weeks.
Please this list is subject to change if the Red Sox continue to fail they become big sellers like
JBJ
JD M
Mitch M
Porcello
B Holt
Nunez
And I’m sure there’s more
Wash your mouth out with soap. The Sox are still very much in this. They started slow cuz they screwed with their spring training program. But they’re starting to get it going now. Hope they keep playing the Orioles LOL
I love seeing a list like this without a single MINNESOTA TWIN on it. Very refreshing to be buyers for once.
Yes it is refreshing. Be nice to see them carrying it on. Good for baseball.
Congrats on the Twins, dude.
Jeff why does this article keep reposting to the app when nothing seems to be different?
We sometimes bump our feature pieces back to the top of the site since they can get buried by small news items. I guess that moves it back to the front of the app as well.
Alex has said he wants to stay with a Royals and retire a royal
Why do you have Brad Keller who is only 23 and Jake Junis (who is 26 or 27) on your watchlist? When Dayton Moore said everyone on the roster is available I don’t think they meant two of the starters in the rotation!
Keller because some contenders will prefer controllable starters and could conceivably target him. Junis because Sam Mellinger says he has been asked about. They’re just on the watch list, not especially likely candidates to be dealt. But remember that the Royals recently dealt Scott Alexander.
Had to create an account just so I can say this is probably the best written and thought out list on the subject I’ve ever seen. Thanks for all the hard work on this and for responding to the comments with additional thoughts. I’m on the Giants moving Belt too. Can a Belt and Bumgarner get Voit and Frazier?
NO SHOT
Appreciate it! Voit isn’t going anywhere. I’d imagine the Giants could pry Frazier loose if he’s a guy they really like, but I don’t think Belt is a fit in NYY since they acquired Encarnacion. Zaidi has an impressive array of trade chips to work with beyond him.
la stella definitely looks like a keeper.
Agreed. Considering how long they have been looking for a 2B and 3B.
I thought Nicholas Castellanos’ defense was improved too until I saw his lousy routs contribute to losing three games in four days No one wants him.
When chasing fly balls, Nick sometimes forgets to activate his GPS tracking system. Reminds me of a cat chasing the red dot from a laser pen.
I’m actually impressed. This is the first article about potential trade chips that doesn’t insist that Arizona is a surefire seller. MLB.com has been listing Greinke, Peralta and Holland as trade chips for weeks despite the team still being only 2 games out of a wild card spot.
I have said this before in previous articles, but, while I agree that Bumgardner is not top prospect worthy, I feel the only way the Giants deal him is if they get just that…I think they would rather give him a qualifying offer than give him away…So, unless a team throws a top prospect at him, I see the Giants keeping him.
The NY Mets will most likely clean house again.
Not a Mets fan, but that would be a really tough pill for them to swallow. There were lots of hopes riding on BVW and it looked like the pitching staff would be at full strength again. Did not understand the Cano deal though.
Oh well, my Nats are still behind the Mets!
Great piece, lots of solid research. I’d see Rendon move way up that list though, since the highest-ranked 3b-man is Panda at #15. Nats are really buried in the NL East and the bullpen may be coming around slowly, but the Braves are beginning to pull away. The real question is when does GM Rizzo see the writing on the wall and accept that a retool is necessary?
WAS better learn from how they handled Harper last year….but the Mets fan in me hopes they don’t. Rendon could be an absolute game changer at the deadline, so he could cause a fun bidding war.
The other guy I’m really watching is Bumgardner, more because I’m not sure how to value him right now. He is putting up #3ish numbers, but man the upside of Playoff Bum to a team….there could be some crazy value built in there. I hate seeing the rich get richer, so I’m hopeful a team like MIL trades for him and he produces. TB would be a great spot for him, but that’s not their MO and they can’t afford to move a bunch of players for an expiring contract (even with that lopsided trade for Archer).
Anything on Greinke Todd?
Excellent, excellent article. Well thought-out.
Just missing anything on the Refsnyder market……Besides that, top-notch
A damn near 43% chase rate seems less than sustainable
So pretty much the entire Giants’ roster is available. But you left one name off: Buster “Why the hell am I still batting clean-up” Posey. He’s useless. Any of our younger catchers are better defensively, and he has simply forgotten how to hit a baseball.
You’re right about his declining offensive output, but he has a NTC the Giants would have to deal with. And unless someone throws them a solid offer for him, he’s still the ideal catcher to have around these next 2-3 years while Zaidi rebuilds the rotation with young arms for their next run. As for his defense, there is no other catcher currently in their system who can pitch-frame and handle baserunners better than Posey. Now if Zaidi gets one in the upcoming trades, then that may be different.
Mets could package Zack Wheeler (minor value), Juerys Familia (neg value), and Edwin Diaz (High Value) to the Braves for Ender Inciarte (minor value), Darren O’Day (negative value) with Adam Duvall, Kolby Allard and Luis Gohara (High Value).
Mets get salary relief, tow outfielders (RH and LH) including gold glove CF, and two left handed pitching prospects for a half year of Wheeler, a bad contract and a decent closer.
Braves get some bullpen improvement.
I wish I could believe the Mets won’t be selling come July…but….Mets. Sure their pitching “could” bounce back, but they are thin with starters and their BP was supposed to be top 5 and they have largely stunk. They do actually have some position player depth…anyone want Cano?!!
I’m somewhat surprised Dom Smith and JD Davis didn’t make the also ran list because they both are putting up quietly solid years as part-time players/pinch hitters for an under-achieving team. A smart team would grab Smith who will likely be blocked by Peter Alonso for the next 5+ years.
Dom Smith: .
348 BAA .448 OBP .562 SLG 1.009OPS 174OPS+ 1.3WAR in 59 games
Smith’s defense has been solid at 1B, but more importantly he has actually played the OF decently well. He is a former highly-ranked prospect who has hit at every level. He has a lot of control left, as he isn’t a FA until 2025 and he currently makes $559k.
JD Davis:
.275BAA .337OBP .474SLG .811OPS 103OPS+ in 60 games. 0WAR: 1.2…his defense at 3B is suspect, so overall WAR is 0. As a piece off the bench he could have some value. He is also controllable until 2025 for cheap, as he makes $561k this year.
Boyd is criminally to low. He should be #1 by far. Best pitcher in MLB this year according to war, and has 3 years of control left. That is insane. Greene also has a era of less than 1 and is leading the MLB in saves. He is too low as well. Will smith #1? haha
Castellanos is way too high, cant field, doesn’t have a posotion and has a wrc+ of 100.
Please read the post before commenting.
Scherzer?
It would be gigantic if the Nats did it. There are many reasons to make that move, and many to not make it.