Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera is one of the most interesting trade candidates this summer. After he struggled to throw strikes through his first three-plus seasons, he’s amidst a breakout year. That makes him a potential fit for virtually every team that is evaluating the rotation market.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in June that Cabrera was among a number of starting pitchers on the Cubs’ radar. Francys Romero adds the Mets as another club that has shown interest. It stands to reason the Marlins have heard from most win-now teams on both Cabrera and former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara.
The 27-year-old Cabrera has a 3.33 earned run average in 15 appearances. That’s weighed down by a pair of five-run clunkers in April. He has been downright excellent over his past 11 starts. He owns a 2.11 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opposing hitters in that time. Cabrera has gotten grounders on nearly half the batted balls against him while keeping his walks to a decent 8% clip. It’s by far the best stretch of his big league career — both in terms of throwing strikes and keeping runs off the board.
There’s danger in carving up samples that small. Cabrera had a career 4.49 ERA and 13.2% walk rate before this 11-start run. Still, he’s now at two and a half months of top-of-the-rotation production. The Marlins had limited him to around five innings for most of that stretch. They’ve shown more trust in his ability to work deep into games over his past two appearances. Cabrera worked seven innings in each, allowing a combined two runs with 11 strikeouts and one walk against the Twins and Brewers, respectively.
While Cabrera hasn’t shown this level before, this isn’t entirely out of nowhere. The 6’4″ hurler was a staple on top prospect lists. Evaluators credited him with at least mid-rotation caliber stuff. He has a five-pitch mix and averages north of 96 MPH with both his sinker and four-seam fastball. His curveball and slider are missing bats. It has long been easy to dream on the upside. The question has been whether the command would ever progress to even league average. While it has taken a little longer than the Marlins might’ve hoped, that now seems to be falling into place.
Miami doesn’t need to make Cabrera available. He entered this season with a little under three years of service time. He’s playing on a $1.95MM salary in his first of four arbitration years as a Super Two player. The money isn’t an issue even by Marlins standards. He’s under club control through 2028. Even with the widespread expectation that they’ll deal Alcantara, the Fish could hold Cabrera to form a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Eury Pérez. They’ve played well of late, and while it’s highly unlikely to make them a legitimate Wild Card contender this season, it could signify that they’re not too far from being competitive.
It’d nevertheless be a surprise if they closed the door on offers completely. President of baseball operations Peter Bendix has embarked on a complete teardown and rebuild. The front office may have some trepidation about Cabrera’s old command woes returning. Even if they fully buy into his current form, they’re aware of the injury risk for any pitcher — particularly one who throws as hard as Cabrera does. The Marlins have seen Max Meyer, Ryan Weathers and Braxton Garrett battle various injuries. Pérez and Alcantara required Tommy John surgeries; Alcantara hasn’t come back from the surgery nearly as dominant as he had been. Cabrera himself missed time in both 2023 and ’24 with shoulder impingements.
The Marlins would demand a significant trade return. Cabrera has surpassed Alcantara as the team’s top realistic trade chip. Few other pitchers on non-contenders have the same ceiling. The affordability and team control window would appeal both to all-in teams and to those that feel their competitive window is just opening. It stands to reason the Fish would add even more of a premium in talks with other NL East teams.
New York will welcome Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea back from the injured list this weekend. They’ll have a starting five of Manaea, Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas for the first time all year. Injuries to Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn have tested the depth. The Mets figure to add at least one starter in addition to potential bullpen and center field pursuits.
At 2022 deadline NYM former GM only made moves on the roster edges and that reluctance likely cost them the division. Last season when postseason wasn’t clearly in focus, Stearns largely made moves on the roster edges. The Maton/Stanek/Winker moves helped absolutely. Will they make a bold Cespedes like move this year?
I will believe it when I see it but it seems like a year they should go for it. I am very curious if they will trade for a starter and move Holmes to the pen, given where his innings are and his history.
I agree. Get a top-of-rotation SP and move Holmes to be the primary set-up RP.
That’s not going to happen. Holmes was signed to be a starter, he’s going to start and he’s been very effective.
Let’s see how it plays out.
Nice piece to throw into the Queens rotation, but not sure if the Mets are desperate enough to give up what the fish will ask for.
I’ll agree and go a notch higher: I don’t believe they are.
It not close to enough for a front line pitcher. A 27-year old Indie ball reclamation project who has been moved to the bullpen in the minors, and a DSL player? Too much uncertainty on both players.
Starting pitcher is hands down the most expensive asset at the deadline. If Cabrera is available he’s pitching like one of the top available arms, it will cost minimum one top 100 (depending on how high on the list) and another 2/3 solid pieces.
Pena will be a top 20 prospect in baseball by the end of next year. The Mets aren’t giving up that lottery ticket.
Dooper
I assume teams are wary and won’t be buying the recent string.
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I agree that Cabrera is no sure thing. But teams will consider he was a fairly highly-rated prospect, and that he’s finally come into his own. Even with his weak years, his 162-game production looks like a solid #3 with a 2.7 bWAR average.
I think he will require a top-100 prospect.
@Dooper
So, two scrubs for a starting pitcher at the trade deadline? Did you start watching baseball when the Mets signed Soto – and this is going to be your first trade deadline? Must be if you think that staring pitchers go for the return you mention. Even 5th starters cost more than your offer.
And to add, you really think that the Marlins would give a division rival something like Cabrera for such a low price when the O’s, a non-division rival in the opposite league, had to give up both Stowers and Norby to get Trevor Rogers who had been struggling for a good amount of time before that trade?
Good luck…or should I say, welcome to baseball.
You obviously have zero knowledge on either of the players and might want to do some research before saying what you did. Just because one horrible GM gave you a lot for a bad pitcher doesn’t mean it will continue to happen. What did you get for Luzardo?
Yeah, I have zero knowledge of the players? Hmmm…Let me see.
Jonathan Pintaro – a 27-year old who just made it up to MLB to throw batting practice to MLB hitters.
Elian Pena – another hyped up Mets prospect…who everyone else sees as a lottery ticket until he proves something. (so far, not doing it, even though it’s early)
Please enlighten me to what I don’t know about.
As for what we got for Luzardo?
19-year old Starlyn Caba (who was already in Spring Training with us and showed his glove)
And 21-year old Emaarion Boyd (who is already showing his speed)
I don’t think we got any 27-year old scrubs in these two. And Caba is distincly ahead of Pena while them both being not much different in age.
So, again, please please please enlighten me.
Or are you also another one of the new Mets fans that started watching baseball with Soto’s signing – like you screen name indicates?
It’s laughable that you would defend that trade suggestion. Even your own Mets fans who have been on these boards for years before Soto’s arrival question it as you see above.
Pena was the top international prospect well before the Mets signed him. His scouting grades are through the roof. I’m sure every 17 year old kid has 3 homer games in professional baseball. As soon as the Mets bring him stateside he will skyrocket in prospect rankings as every top international prospect does. Hate to break it to you but every prospect in baseball is a lottery pick. The skill is getting the ones that pay off a lot. Pena is a player that does that. His ceiling is top ten in position players in the minors. Why do you think the Padres traded for Tatis at 17 for James Shields. Because they knew what they were doing.
@Mets Era Thumping Soto
So I guess that Caba is a sure thing beast considering that he’s signficantly more advanced than Pena, while just being slightly older.
And your premise and defense of Pena is based on your wishful thinking trying to validate a stupid trade suggestion. Do you really think Peter Bendix would accept that trade?
And I still don’t see your explanation for Jonathan Pintaro.
So you really think that’s a credible trade suggestion?
Maybe you should take a look at what the Marlins got from the Mets for Huascar Brazoban – two lottery tickets similar to what Pena is. So essentially, maybe you both feel that Brazoban has more trade value than Edward Cabrera. In case you don’t know about that trade since it was months before Soto signed with the Mets, The Mets gave up Wilfredo Lara and I forget the other guy, a SS I believe was named Juan Martinez or something like that, but I remember he was gone to open up organizational roster space, and he’s either out of baseball or in an international league somewhere.
Yeah, Brazoban > Cabrera…based on this trade suggestion you’re defending.
@Dooper
Such a mature, intellectually powerful response. I’m surprised you didn’t have to go to summer school this year…or did you?
In the very least, your response shows a nerve was touched, so I hit that nail on the head. You must be cool in your crisp, brand new Soto jersey.
I don’t think it’s a credible trade because the Mets aren’t trading Pena. Not because of anything the Marlins will do. You are clueless if you think the prospects in the Brazabon trade are even remotely on the level of Pena. I guess you think every international prospect are the same. Making that comparison shows you have zero clue on the prospects other then you looking to see where they rank in top 30 rankings.
@Dooper
D-bag? When you either make up stuff about me or have me mixed up with someone else, now that’s a D-bag.
I’ve never defended Franco. He was a Rays player, so why would I participate in that?
Go to bed. You’ve very likely got school tomorrow.
You have no clue when you make the same mistake every Mets fan has made about their prospects in assuming they are guaranteed of anything when most Mets hyped up prospects fail epically.
Here’s what I know about baseball historically. Prospects are just suspects until they show they can play at the MLB level. Most show that they can’t. And fans in big markets always eat crow because they fall for the narrative every year that the team’s PR team serves…whether it’s Steve Chilcott, Lastings Milledge, Ike Davis, Gregg Jefferies, Mike Pelfrey, Bill Pulsipher, Paul Wilson, Fernando Martinez, Tim Foli, Billy Beane, Shawn Abner, Butch Huskey, Randy Milligan, Floyd Youmans, Rodney McRay, Mark Carreon, Tim Leary, the oldest “prospect” ever in Aaron Heilman, etc., etc., etc.
Yeah, I guess this shows how little I know about prospects.
If you don’t know these names, maybe you should before you guarantee anything about your latest Mets prospect.
And if you don’t think it’s a credible trade, why are you defending it? While you have an opposite take, while we disagree on the value of players, we both seem to agree that the trade suggestion is not credible…but you’re defending it.
And I was about to point out that if you feel Pena is so great, why trade him for Cabrera? If he’s as studly as you make him out to be, you should definitely be looking at a guy like Skenes for Pena.
That’s funny. I think the Marlins are the kings at failed prospects. Hey you gave me a list of failed prospects over a forty year time frame. Why don’t you now give me the list of prospects that were good for the Mets. It’s going to be a lot longer than the list you just threw out there. Good thing you got google to pull up the list.
Because the Marlins would jump all over Pena. It is a viable trade but the the Mets front office currently are not trading high end prospects.
I didn’t give you a list of all the Mets failed prospects. I gave a list of the ones that epically failed on high levels. They were the guys that were mega hyped up as sure things by the Mets PR machine. The list is much longer. Here’s the reality. I’d say about 80% of prospects fail or fall short of the hype. This is throughout MLB. The big market teams have the epic fails because of all the media hype and guarantees to get clicks or subscriptions (or sell papers and magazines in teh old days).
And I did not need to Google anything. These are names that the NY media made sure everyone knew throughout were sure things.
Because the Marlins would jump all over Pena. It is a viable trade but the the Mets front office currently are not trading high end prospects.
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Convenient cop out to a trade that you know Peter Bendix would never accept.
Pulsipher, Wilson and Isringhausen were the starters of the future. The first two washed out, and Isringhausen became a decent major leaguer as a reliever after he got traded.
Which is what the Mets should do with Megill. Turn him into a premier set-up man, and ditch Stanek. He is not focused enough to be a starter who gives you Quality starts.
Let’s hope when Brooks Raley is ready he looks as good as his rehab appearances have looked. They need him badly.
@imissjoebuzas
You know sometimes front offices are stubborn to the detriment of their teams and their careers. Sometimes they stick with a guy in a particular role just to try to prove they were right, but then when the guy eventually fails, he ends up in another organization that taps into the talent by placing him in a role that he’s better suited for.
My Marlins did this a few times when Mike Hill was our GM. The best examples I can give similar to what you point out about Isringhausen was what happened under Hill with both Andrew Miller and Brad Hand.
For them, Hill and the front office insisted that they were starting pitchers or bust. Eventually they gave up on both, then they both go on to other organzations to become high quality relievers…and they’re both lefties who have higher value!
#5 starters do not cost more then that? Many of them go for lower top 30 prospects for that specific team or PTBNL. However I agree that offer won’t get it done for Cabrera because many teams will be in on him. On the flip side I also think from your comments you’re going to be disappointed with the return because there’s no chance he’s fetching a top 100 prospect. When the Mets traded Justin Verlander they paid enough money to make him financially look like a #4 starter, Verlander remind you is a 3 time CY Young winner, future HOF’er and was coming off a CY Young year where he went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and was pitching to a 3.15 ERA the 1st half of that season with the Mets and the Mets received the #68 prospect on the top 100 and a non top 100 prospect. Edward Cabrera is nowhere near Verlander he isn’t long past being a prospect himself and has struggled to put it together until a recent 11 start stretch, the pedigree and credentials of Verlander far outweigh the age difference and contract differences between the two. My offer would be:
Marlins receive: RHP Blade Tidwell, INF Marco Vargas(or Jeremy Rodriguez), RHP Will Watson
Mets receive: RHP Edward Cabrera
The Marlins originally signed Vargas and liked him then so why not? I think the Pintaro & Pena offer has tremendous upside for the Marlins, Pintaro looks like he’s got it don’t get hung up on the age & every team wanted Pena as an international free agent that’s why he got $5M, I think a lot of people will look at this as a better offer but I think many of us Mets fans would be glad to hold onto Pintaro & Pena
You’re out of your mind you clearly know nothing about Pintaro or Pena, you can’t compare Pena to another’s stats at 17 and say they are similar to players in the Marlins system. Pena got $5M!! He had high offers nearing that amount from over a dozen teams and it would have been more not for Sasaki. It’s about tools and TALENT EVALUATORS at 17, and they all think Pena could be the next Tatis, Lindor, etc. The Mets farm system is on the rise and he’s a top 10 prospect that should tell you something. Pintaro has great swing and miss stuff since getting into the Mets pitching lab, he’s no deGrom but deGrom didn’t debut until age 26 so the age thing is a moot point. Honestly you seem like the new one to sports because it’s Sports 101 that if this player did this and that player did that this one’s better is not how it works, same way if the Mets beat the Marlins but the Marlins beat the Phillies doesn’t mean the Mets are better then the Phillies but you probably use that math equation too in sports. Your argument is A) extremely bias to players in the Marlins system meanwhile every Mets fan has been honest that Pena is a question mark but one oozing with potential and B) Clearly related to the fact you don’t prefer teenage prospects with immense potential you’d rather a 23yr old top 10 prospect who’s probably close to his ceiling already. You’ve basically been saying if when Tatis got in the minors some other 18yr old that wasn’t really on radars was out producing him in the first few months of rookie ball then Tatis wasn’t a worthy trade chip or as good as the other John Doe.
@BannedMarlinsFanBase
Your list of “Met prospects that epically failed on a high level…. mega hyped up as a sure thing by the Mets PR machine” includes:
Rodney McCray – Signed as a free agent with the Mets when he was 28-years-old. He spent a couple weeks in the Mets organization.
I’d put him right up there with Paul Skenes, Hunter Brown and Garrett Crochet — he sits 97 mph with his heater and his sinker, often up to 99 mph, he gets some sideways movement on his fastball that frankly is unparalled. Throws a 94mph power change up and has a filthy curveball. The numbers might not tell it but his tape does. He throws all these pitches well within himself too, he throws effortlessly.
Cabrera should return a package similar to what Boston gave up for Crochet. I like Cabrera more than Crochet myself.
To all you Mets “geniuses”, let me know when the Mets make an offer that Peter Bendix actually offers, then we can continue from there.
You guys follow the great ole tradition of Mets fan, show up lately, and be uniformed and delusional.
I can’t wait to see one of your suggested offers land Cabrera, Good luck with that.
Again, let me know when Peter Bendix accepts one of your suggested offers.
I’m a prospect hugger but I’m not getting attached to any of the guys in the Mets’ system. Stearns has to be aggressive, even if it means pushing beyond his comfort zone. The Mets have the core of a championship team right now, but they need reinforcements. I think they make at least two and possibly three significant deals in the coming weeks.
Eury Perez should be who the Mets should target from the Marlins, he has the talent of an Ace level calibur starter. Cabrera is a fourth starter, we have plenty of those already. Penny pinching moves aren’t going to move the needle. Preferably, I’d like Degrom or Gallen. Skenes would be at the top of my list but its a pipedream
Eury is a pipe dream also.
Puff puff give.
Cabrera is a filthy ace. He is only 27, has bigtime arsenal of pitches. He reminds me of Pedro Martinez, same movement on the fastball.
Let’s be honest in that if the Mets are looking to acquire him then so are the Yankees because the Yankees have been hit very hard with constant injuries and inconsistency to their rotation so if the Mets want to outdo the Yankees then they need to strike first.
As the article states, every contender, not just ones in NYC, will be looking at the Marlins asking price. They will have him priced according to his recent production. That, along with 3+ years of control, will cost a lot more than lottery tickets. They have a rare and valuable commodity for this trade market. Some one will pay for it, or they simply won’t trade him.
Edward Cabrera sounds a lot like Tylor Megill.
Flashes of brilliance. ✅
Periods of mediocrity. ✅
Lengthy up and down development. ✅
Injuries derailing progress. ✅
I checked baseball reference. Cabrera definitely accumulates more bWAR in his better seasons.
Will be interesting to see if Marlins move Cabrera. The Fish are currently playing some great baseball since mid May. They have a lot of good young hitters and Perez is an absolute stud ace. They could easily be a contender next season if they keep key people. The Pirates appear to be the team willing to tear it down vs the Marlins. Pirates supposedly are making many players available including some of there starters not named Paul Skenes..