Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera is one of the most interesting trade candidates this summer. After he struggled to throw strikes through his first three-plus seasons, he’s amidst a breakout year. That makes him a potential fit for virtually every team that is evaluating the rotation market.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in June that Cabrera was among a number of starting pitchers on the Cubs’ radar. Francys Romero adds the Mets as another club that has shown interest. It stands to reason the Marlins have heard from most win-now teams on both Cabrera and former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara.
The 27-year-old Cabrera has a 3.33 earned run average in 15 appearances. That’s weighed down by a pair of five-run clunkers in April. He has been downright excellent over his past 11 starts. He owns a 2.11 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opposing hitters in that time. Cabrera has gotten grounders on nearly half the batted balls against him while keeping his walks to a decent 8% clip. It’s by far the best stretch of his big league career — both in terms of throwing strikes and keeping runs off the board.
There’s danger in carving up samples that small. Cabrera had a career 4.49 ERA and 13.2% walk rate before this 11-start run. Still, he’s now at two and a half months of top-of-the-rotation production. The Marlins had limited him to around five innings for most of that stretch. They’ve shown more trust in his ability to work deep into games over his past two appearances. Cabrera worked seven innings in each, allowing a combined two runs with 11 strikeouts and one walk against the Twins and Brewers, respectively.
While Cabrera hasn’t shown this level before, this isn’t entirely out of nowhere. The 6’4″ hurler was a staple on top prospect lists. Evaluators credited him with at least mid-rotation caliber stuff. He has a five-pitch mix and averages north of 96 MPH with both his sinker and four-seam fastball. His curveball and slider are missing bats. It has long been easy to dream on the upside. The question has been whether the command would ever progress to even league average. While it has taken a little longer than the Marlins might’ve hoped, that now seems to be falling into place.
Miami doesn’t need to make Cabrera available. He entered this season with a little under three years of service time. He’s playing on a $1.95MM salary in his first of four arbitration years as a Super Two player. The money isn’t an issue even by Marlins standards. He’s under club control through 2028. Even with the widespread expectation that they’ll deal Alcantara, the Fish could hold Cabrera to form a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Eury Pérez. They’ve played well of late, and while it’s highly unlikely to make them a legitimate Wild Card contender this season, it could signify that they’re not too far from being competitive.
It’d nevertheless be a surprise if they closed the door on offers completely. President of baseball operations Peter Bendix has embarked on a complete teardown and rebuild. The front office may have some trepidation about Cabrera’s old command woes returning. Even if they fully buy into his current form, they’re aware of the injury risk for any pitcher — particularly one who throws as hard as Cabrera does. The Marlins have seen Max Meyer, Ryan Weathers and Braxton Garrett battle various injuries. Pérez and Alcantara required Tommy John surgeries; Alcantara hasn’t come back from the surgery nearly as dominant as he had been. Cabrera himself missed time in both 2023 and ’24 with shoulder impingements.
The Marlins would demand a significant trade return. Cabrera has surpassed Alcantara as the team’s top realistic trade chip. Few other pitchers on non-contenders have the same ceiling. The affordability and team control window would appeal both to all-in teams and to those that feel their competitive window is just opening. It stands to reason the Fish would add even more of a premium in talks with other NL East teams.
New York will welcome Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea back from the injured list this weekend. They’ll have a starting five of Manaea, Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas for the first time all year. Injuries to Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn have tested the depth. The Mets figure to add at least one starter in addition to potential bullpen and center field pursuits.
At 2022 deadline NYM former GM only made moves on the roster edges and that reluctance likely cost them the division. Last season when postseason wasn’t clearly in focus, Stearns largely made moves on the roster edges. The Maton/Stanek/Winker moves helped absolutely. Will they make a bold Cespedes like move this year?
I will believe it when I see it but it seems like a year they should go for it. I am very curious if they will trade for a starter and move Holmes to the pen, given where his innings are and his history.
I agree. Get a top-of-rotation SP and move Holmes to be the primary set-up RP.
Nice piece to throw into the Queens rotation, but not sure if the Mets are desperate enough to give up what the fish will ask for.
Jonathan Pintaro and Elian Pena sounds like a good return for both teams. Maybe some filler going both ways.
It not close to enough for a front line pitcher. A 27-year old Indie ball reclamation project who has been moved to the bullpen in the minors, and a DSL player? Too much uncertainty on both players.
Maybe two lottos going from the Mets. Cabrera is not a frontline pitcher, he has been pitching like one recently. I assume teams are wary and won’t be buying the recent string. They probably assume his walks and hr rate will rise, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t valuable. Hes a solid back end arm even if he reverts. Maybe the control could net a better return, just brainstorming here.
Plus pena has been compared to Lindor. Who will be the Mets ss when pena is ready. He was signed for $5 mil and could be a top 100 prospect in a year or two
Also Pintaro is not a reclamation project. He was overlooked because he played at small school so limited exposure. He signed in Indy out of school and was scooped up right after. He’s a top 20-something Mets prospect. Dont act like he’s some has been.
Starting pitcher is hands down the most expensive asset at the deadline. If Cabrera is available he’s pitching like one of the top available arms, it will cost minimum one top 100 (depending on how high on the list) and another 2/3 solid pieces.
Pena will be a top 20 prospect in baseball by the end of next year. The Mets aren’t giving up that lottery ticket.
He’s just as much a lotto ticket as Cabrera, who was a top prospect not too long ago. Lotto ticket that reached the bigs for a lotto ticket that hasn’t plus. That’s kind of the standard. Which is why opinions seem split on my proposal.
Dooper
I assume teams are wary and won’t be buying the recent string.
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I agree that Cabrera is no sure thing. But teams will consider he was a fairly highly-rated prospect, and that he’s finally come into his own. Even with his weak years, his 162-game production looks like a solid #3 with a 2.7 bWAR average.
I think he will require a top-100 prospect.
I’ll agree and go a notch higher: I don’t believe they are.
I’m a prospect hugger but I’m not getting attached to any of the guys in the Mets’ system. Stearns has to be aggressive, even if it means pushing beyond his comfort zone. The Mets have the core of a championship team right now, but they need reinforcements. I think they make at least two and possibly three significant deals in the coming weeks.
Eury Perez should be who the Mets should target from the Marlins, he has the talent of an Ace level calibur starter. Cabrera is a fourth starter, we have plenty of those already. Penny pinching moves aren’t going to move the needle. Preferably, I’d like Degrom or Gallen. Skenes would be at the top of my list but its a pipedream
Eury is a pipe dream also.
Let’s be honest in that if the Mets are looking to acquire him then so are the Yankees because the Yankees have been hit very hard with constant injuries and inconsistency to their rotation so if the Mets want to outdo the Yankees then they need to strike first.
As the article states, every contender, not just ones in NYC, will be looking at the Marlins asking price. They will have him priced according to his recent production. That, along with 3+ years of control, will cost a lot more than lottery tickets. They have a rare and valuable commodity for this trade market. Some one will pay for it, or they simply won’t trade him.
Edward Cabrera sounds a lot like Tylor Megill.
Flashes of brilliance. ✅
Periods of mediocrity. ✅
Lengthy up and down development. ✅
Injuries derailing progress. ✅
I checked baseball reference. Cabrera definitely accumulates more bWAR in his better seasons.
Will be interesting to see if Marlins move Cabrera. The Fish are currently playing some great baseball since mid May. They have a lot of good young hitters and Perez is an absolute stud ace. They could easily be a contender next season if they keep key people. The Pirates appear to be the team willing to tear it down vs the Marlins. Pirates supposedly are making many players available including some of there starters not named Paul Skenes..