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MLBTR Poll: Potential Landing Spots For Andrew McCutchen

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With the Giants slipping to a distant fourth place in the NL West, the team’s decision to place veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen on waivers yesterday may be the starting point of at least a light, late-August sell-off. Though the San Francisco organization obviously could still pull McCutchen back — particularly in the seemingly unlikely event that the team is still considering making him a qualifying offer — there’s good reason to think that it may decide instead to let him join another club with brighter hopes the rest of the season.

McCutchen is still owed in the neighborhood of $3MM for the remainder of the season — hardly an insignificant amount of money. It’s enough, certainly, to force any team considering a move to think hard about whether the veteran is really a worthwhile upgrade and compelling fit.

Teams weighing whether to make a claim, or to pursue a swap if McCutchen clears waivers, will surely be assessing just what version of the former superstar they’d likely receive. He’s showing less power than ever before but has been a quality on-base threat and above-average overall hitter. Given his diminished all-around capabilities, that’s not a particularly compelling package, though teams will surely also value McCutchen’s leadership attributes.

Notably, though, measures of his batted-ball quality suggest that Cutch is stinging the ball — perhaps making him a candidate to experience some positive regression down the stretch. Some clubs may also believe the power downturn could be righted in part by moving McCutchen to a more hitter-friendly home park.

In any event, the bottom line is that McCutchen is no longer a premium performer who’s good enough to force a fit on any roster. He’s playing at about a 2 WAR annual pace this season (per both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference), so even a Statcast-believing optimist would closely consider fit and value.

Here are a few organizations that make some amount of sense at a glance. (Links to Roster Resource depth charts; teams presented in alphabetical order.)

  • Astros: Suddenly engaged in a divisional dogfight, the defending World Series champs are no doubt looking for ways to get better in the final days of August. Whether McCutchen is the optimal target is certainly debatable, but the corner outfield mix is heavy on left-handed hitters (Josh Reddick, Tony Kemp, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher) and a switch-hitter (Marwin Gonzalez) who is better against right-handed pitching.
  • Athletics: Having surged into a first-place tie with the aforementioned Houston club, the A’s are surely perusing the wire for possibilities. Though the focus is on pitching, McCutchen would be a fairly clean fit on this roster. While youth has carried the club to this point, there are some questions surrounding some of the right-handed-hitting elements of the current outfield mix. In particular, Mark Canha has had a tough three-week stretch while Ramon Laureno was scuffling before a two-dinger outing last night. While the A’s would perhaps prefer to add a true center fielder, it’s hardly clear that there’s one to be found on this market.
  • Braves: McCutchen would be an improved version of the recently-acquired Adam Duvall, who has struggled badly since arriving in Atlanta but could still be optioned. It’s not exactly a pressing need, but might be an interesting way to provide a boost for a club that still has work to do to secure a surprising division title.
  • Cubs: With the offense sagging a bit of late, the Cubbies are no doubt at least considering a lineup infusion. Adding McCutchen would create some additional matchup possibilities in the outfield while perhaps freeing the club to reduce the role of struggling shortstop Addison Russell. Of course, the Cubs may also feel it’d unnecessarily clog their roster to add another righty corner bat with Kris Bryant hopefully nearing a return and the surprising David Bote still available.
  • Indians: As recently-acquired outfielder Leonys Martin battles a serious health issue, the Indians have had to go back to the drawing board to boost their outfield mix and improve their overall offensive profile in advance of the playoffs. The club is said to have pursued Adam Jones, another former up-the-middle superstar who’s still respected but is now best suited to playing the corner outfield and is no longer quite as compelling a presence at the plate. McCutchen is arguably a better target, and unlike Jones does not have no-trade protection.
  • Mariners: The Seattle org already picked up a right-handed outfield bat in Cameron Maybin, but he’s struggling. McCutchen wouldn’t likely represent an option in center, but perhaps the club could utilize him as part of the corner mix while bumping Dee Gordon back into the outfield and deploying Robinson Cano more regularly at second base. While the M’s continue to outperform expectations, they are looking at a tough path to the postseason and need to squeeze out every bit of value they can down the stretch if they hope to qualify.
  • Phillies: The Phils reportedly also chased Jones. As explained above, then, Cutch also seems a reasonable target. He’d likely take the lion’s share of time in right field in Philadelphia while adding another sturdy clubhouse asset to a mostly youthful team.
  • Rockies: The Colorado organization is right in the thick of things. But its outfield mix hasn’t been a strength. More importantly, it is overloaded with left-handed hitters. Adding a veteran righty bat would make lots of sense. And bringing in such a high-profile player would surely generate loads of interest in Colorado.
  • Yankees: The Yanks are showing patience as Aaron Judge heals up, as they seem destined for a Wild Card game barring a near-unfathomable swing in either direction. Still, the club has to be considering some lineup boosts. Adding McCutchen could be viewed as part of a plan to shift some players around and reduce the role of first baseman Greg Bird, though perhaps there are better ways to accomplish that.

So, which do you think is likeliest to land McCutchen? (Link for app users.)

Players Clearing Revocable Waivers: Smoak, Cron, Flores, Duda

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The end of August is in sight, which means that final player transaction jockeying is taking place. To this point, we haven’t heard of many players to have cleared waivers, but the details of the process are rarely revealed as they unfold. August maneuvering involves multi-factor strategies that play out largely in the dark; that makes this time of year fascinating, in theory, but generally difficult to examine.

This evening’s reporting has revealed a few intriguing nuggets, though, two of which we’ve already covered (see here and here). And now we can add some new names to our list of players that can be freely traded, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

  • Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak went through without a claim. While that’s perhaps surprising at first glance, other organizations are surely aware that the Jays won’t be allowing the 31-year-old to walk for nothing. Accordingly, a claim isn’t likely to do much to facilitate an agreement. The switch-hitting slugger has largely carried forward his surprising 2017 output, turning in 487 plate appearances of .257/.363/.465 hitting on the current season. But he’s cheap this year ($4.125MM) and controllable for an affordable rate ($6MM) for 2019. While there’s obviously no reason to believe that Smoak is particularly likely to be dealt, he could still be an interesting chip for the Toronto organization — particularly if other quality hitters don’t make it through the wire.
  • The Rays have been rewarded for rolling the dice on first baseman C.J. Cron over the winter, and could now cash him in via trade. Of course, the 28-year-old first baseman cleared waivers in large part because there’s no pressure for the Tampa Bay club to part ways with him. Cron is earning just $2.3MM in 2018 with two more years of arbitration control remaining. He’s sporting a .250/.317/.480 slash with a career-high 24 long balls.
  • Elsewhere, Mets infielder Wilmer Flores has long seemed like an interesting target for a club in need of a little defensive versatility and an option against left-handed pitching (though he has, atypically, produced reverse splits this year). He’s earning a reasonable $3.4MM this year and comes with another arb year as well. Flores has been a steadily above-average producer at the plate for the last several years and has taken his plate discipline to another level this season (7.2% walk rate vs. 9.4% strikeout rate). While he has never been loved for his baserunning or glovework, he’s capable of playing anywhere on the infield (at short only in a pinch).
  • Former Flores teammate Lucas Duda, on the other hand, finds himself on this list for different reasons. The 32-year-old has struggled this year with the Royals, slashing just .235/.304/.395 with 11 long balls in his 313 plate appearances. But he has still handled right-handed pitching, with a 111 wRC+ when batting with the platoon advantages this year, and has certainly shown more overall in years past. Duda is also earning just $3.5MM this year before reaching free agency.

Giants Reportedly Place Andrew McCutchen On Revocable Trade Waivers

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The Giants have placed outfielder Andrew McCutchen on revocable trade waivers, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Those in need of a refresher on how dealmaking works during the month of August should follow this link.

In terms of timing, it’s not entirely clear exactly when McCutchen hit the waiver wire. If the placement occurred today, though, then other clubs will have until Wednesday to place claims. From there, the way things proceed will depend upon whether or not the veteran outfielder is claimed.

While we’ll need to wait on the details, a deal of some kind seems rather likely, as Baggarly notes. The Giants are now eight games out of the division lead with three teams ahead of them and not in much better shape in the Wild Card chase.

Some may wonder whether the Giants would prefer to keep McCutchen down the stretch, with designs on issuing him a qualifying offer at season’s end. But the QO ticket price is sure to land in the $18MM range, which seems like a steep rate for a player entering his age-32 season three years removed from elite offensive production.

Indeed, it’s at least questionable whether any organization will place a claim on Cutch, who’ll cost around $3MM for the rest of the season before hitting free agency. The Giants, presumably, will be willing to allow him to walk if a claim is made — or, if not, for a rather reasonable price that mostly involves cost savings.

None of that is to say that McCutchen is without appeal. He’s slashing .257/.354/.417 on the year, with 14 home runs in 528 plate appearances. That’s a far cry from his former output, but still good enough for a 114 wRC+. McCutchen sports a career-low .160 isolated slugging mark, and his baserunning grades have joined his defensive reputation in decline, but he can still draw a walk (12.1% BB rate) and actually carries a career-high 45.3% hard-hit rate. Indeed, Statcast numbers indicate he has underperformed the quality of contact he has made (.337 wOBA vs. .366 xwOBA).

It’s certainly possible, then, that a contender in search of a quality righty outfield bat (and highly respected veteran) will gladly take over McCutchen’s salary, if not also give up at least something of a return to the Giants. The National League clubs will get the first crack on the waiver wire. Teams that believe McCutchen has another gear left to reach may well jump on the opportunity, as it’s still not clear that any better options will come available.

Daniel Murphy Reportedly Claimed On Revocable Trade Waivers

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An unknown team has claimed Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy on revocable trade waivers, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The identity of the claiming team is not known, though Sherman notes that the veteran did not make it to the Yankees on the wire.

Murphy was reportedly placed on waivers on Friday. That means the situation is likely still pending. The unidentified team would have been awarded the claim on Sunday, setting off a period of 48.5 hours during which that club and the Nationals will see if they can work something out.

[RELATED: How August Trades Work]

It seems, then, that we’ll learn by tomorrow whether or not Murphy will be in the move. If so, he could go via trade or simply be allowed to leave for salary relief. After all, he’s owed nearly $4MM through the end of the season, when he’ll reach free agency.

For the Nats, there’s obvious appeal in shaving that much cash. Importantly, Murphy will not be eligible for a qualifying offer since he has received one previously. While the Nationals could still pull him back from waivers, that’d mean passing on a chance to recoup some of the money invested into what has been an immensely disappointing season. With the Braves winning tonight, the Washington franchise sits 7.5 games out of the division lead and one game under .500 with less than six weeks left to play.

Just what the Nationals intend to do isn’t yet clear, but Murphy would figure to be among the most obvious players to leave if the organization decides to pack it in and reload for next year. Star Bryce Harper would surely be an appealing asset to other teams, but there’s less incentive there since he can still be issued a qualifying offer at season’s end and the organization may yet have designs on re-signing him.

As for Murphy, the fact that a team put in a claim with that hefty remaining obligation suggests that organizations believe he’s back to being a high-quality hitter. He missed a long stretch of the season after microfracture surgery on his knee and struggled upon returning to action. But Murphy raked throughout the month of July and has been hitting at a solid clip since the calendar flipped to August.

Defensive and baserunning metrics, unsurprisingly, take a dim view of the 33-year-old’s present skill level. That clearly limits his utility, even in a late-season rental scenario. Still, Murphy would represent a potentially compelling addition to a postseason lineup with his penchant for grinding out plate appearances and career 1.020 OPS through 24 playoff games.

Those interested in guessing at a claiming team will note that National League clubs have the first crack, in reverse order of the standings. Arguably, though, Murphy makes the most sense on an American League roster at this stage of his career. While he can still line up at second or first base, a DH slot might be the preferred place for his bat to reside.

International Signings: Orioles, Dodgers

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Here are a few recent international signings of note:

  • The Orioles announced today that they’ve signed outfielder Isaac Bellony. He’ll receive a $220K bonus, per Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Bellony, originally born in the U.S. Virgin Islands, was signed out of the Dominican Republic. Baltimore GM Dan Duquette describes him as “a young, switch-hitting center fielder with power, speed, and a strong arm, who was recruited by several clubs.” Bellony didn’t rank among the top 50 international prospects from Baseball America, though the very fact that the Orioles are signing him at all is of note. Baltimore has refrained from participating in international free agency for years, reportedly as a directive under owner Peter Angelos, but Duquette plainly stated last month that the organization plans to change that philosophy as it embarks upon a lengthy rebuild.
  • Indeed, the Orioles have even added additional spending capacity via trades. That has allowed them to make a volume of signings while also perhaps lining up bigger targets. (Rumors have focused on Cuban prospect Victor Victor Mesa.) Per Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter), the Baltimore organization has also recently inked infielder Moises Ramirez ($225K) and outfielders Damien Valdez ($200K) and J’Rudjeanon Isenia ($125K) to notable contracts.
  • The Dodgers have signed Korean right-hander Hyun-Il Choi to a $300K bonus, according to a report from Ilgan Sports (Korean language link; h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, on Twitter). Choi, 18, will reportedly receive a $300K bonus to join the Los Angeles organization. It seems the young hurler was viewed as a top amateur draft target for KBO organizations before the Dodgers wooed him across the Pacific. This isn’t the first time that an MLB club has snatched a top Korean talent before he entered the professional ranks in his home country. The Braves recently inked infielder Ji-Hwan Bae in similar circumstances. (Of course, that signing also included some off-the-books funds and was part of the Braves’ international scandal. Bae ended up being made a free agent and signing with the Pirates.)

Injury Notes: Jansen, Nimmo, Trumbo, Twins, Giants

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It seems the Dodgers will activate closer Kenley Jansen for tonight’s game, the relief ace tells reporters including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (Twitter links). That’s certainly good news for a club that has struggled to wrap up games in the late innings without him. More importantly, it seems as if there’s ongoing cause for optimism that Jansen will not be limited by the irregular heartbeat that forced him to the hospital earlier this month.

More injury news from around the league…

  • The Mets announced this afternoon that they’ve placed outfielder Brandon Nimmo on the 10-day disabled list due to a bruised left index finger. With Nimmo out for at least the next week-plus, the Mets will keep Dominic Smith on the 25-man roster for the time being. Smith had been with the club on Sunday as the 26th man in New York’s doubleheader, and while he’d been slated to return to Triple-A Las Vegas, he’ll now remain in the bigs. It seems likely that he’ll stay up long enough for rosters to expand on Sept. 1.
  • Likewise, the Orioles say that they’ve placed Mark Trumbo on the disabled list due to inflammation in his right knee. In a pair of corresponding moves, Baltimore reinstated Adam Jones from the bereavement list and also recalled outfielder John Andreoli from Triple-A Norfolk after claiming him off outright waivers from the Mariners organization over the weekend. The rebuilding O’s owe Trumbo another $13.5MM next year and they’d no doubt like to find a way to trim back that commitment. This injury could take him out of any consideration for a late-August swap — not that a deal ever seemed particularly likely in the first place. While the 32-year-old is posting a solid .261/.313/.452 slash with 17 homers in 358 plate appearances, his defensive limitations will severely limit interest from contenders (whether now or in the offseason to come).
  • While Logan Morrison was originally diagnosed with a hip impingement that necessitated season-ending surgery, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that the Twins first baseman/designated hitter actually had a torn labrum repaired and a bone spur removed from the ailing hip. Meanwhile, right-hander Ervin Santana is seeing a hand specialist to examine the surgically repaired middle finger on his right hand (also via Berardino, on Twitter). Initially projected to require a 12-month recovery that would’ve had Santana back in early May, the issue has proven to be considerably more problematic. Santana didn’t pitch until late July and has made just five starts with an 8.03 ERA in 2018.
  • Giants righty Jeff Samardzija is still hoping to make it back from shoulder issues this season. As Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group tweets, Samardzija is set for his first of two rehab starts this Wednesday. That would put the veteran hurler on track to start on the first day of September, when active rosters expand. Whether or not he’ll do so remains to be seen. For the Giants, any contribution will likely be too little, too late. But there is still time for the 33-year-old to put a more positive spin on his 2018 season. When he has been available to pitch this year, Samardzija has produced an ugly 6.25 ERA with an even more concerning 30:26 K/BB ratio in 44 2/3 innings over ten starts.
  • Meanwhile, the Giants will welcome back emerging hurler Dereck Rodriguez, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets, to take the ball on Friday. Clearly, Rodriguez’s hamstring issues weren’t serious at all, as he only just hit the DL. That’s certainly good news for an organization that has been in need of future bright spots. Rodriguez came out of nowhere to throw 80 innings of 2.25 ERA pitching.

Braves Select Bryse Wilson, Designate Ryan Flaherty, Outright Chad Bell

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The Braves have selected the contract of right-hander Bryse Wilson from Triple-A Gwinnett, tweets David O’Brien of The Athletic. The Braves have since announced that he’ll start tonight’s game in place of Kevin Gausman, who, along with the rest of the Atlanta rotation, has had his start pushed back a day (Twitter link via O’Brien).

While the Braves only needed to make a 25-man roster move to accommodate Wilson’s promotion, they announced pair of corresponding 40-man moves: infielder Ryan Flaherty has been designated for assignment, while left-hander Chad Bell has been outrighted off the 40-man roster.

Wilson, 20, opened the 2018 season at Class-A Advanced but has skyrocketed through Atlanta’s system, topping out in Triple-A recently. The hard-throwing righty was the organization’s fourth-round pick in 2016 and currently ranks 13th in a deep Braves farm system, per the midseason prospect update from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.

Wilson’s meteoric rise to the Majors began with 26 2/3 innings of 0.34 ERA ball in High-A to open the season. Those five starts earned him a promotion to Double-A Mississippi, where he posted a 3.97 ERA through 77 innings but turned in a much more impressive 2.77 FIP / 3.33 xFIP on the strength of 10.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.35 HR/9 and a 44 percent ground-ball rate. He’s only made three starts in Triple-A so far, and while he had mixed results in his first two outings, his dominance against the Reds’ top affiliate last week landed him second on Baseball America’s Prospect Hot Sheet this week. BA’s J.J. Cooper noted that Wilson threw eight innings of one-hit ball without issuing a walk, facing the minimum number of hitters and racking up 13 strikeouts.

Remarkably, Wilson will join Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard and Ronald Acuna as prospects to debut in Atlanta before their 20th birthday this season. He draws praise for a fastball that sits 93-95 mph and can touch 97 mph with plenty of sink, as well as a slider and changeup that each have average or better potential.

Flaherty, 32, opened the season on a blistering hot streak for the Braves, but that was clearly unlikely to be sustained. The longtime Orioles utilityman managed a .315/.411/.435 slash through his first 107 plate appearance, but that production was buoyed by a .397 BABIP that was inevitably bound to regress. That has indeed been the case, as Flaherty has stumbled to catastrophic levels, going just 5-for-61 since mid-May while seeing his playing time evaporate.

Bell, meanwhile, has a 5.44 ERA In 41 1/3 innings for the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate after being claimed off waivers back in mid-May. Bell hasn’t had any issues missing bats (9.4 K/9), nor has he been especially generous in terms of yielding walks (2.6 BB/9) or home runs (0.65 HR/9). He has, however, been plagued by a .385 BABIP and a 64.7 percent strand rate. While fielding-independent pitching metrics are generally bullish on his work in Gwinnett, he went unclaimed on waivers and will remain with the Braves without occupying a 40-man spot.

Quick Hits: Contender Schedules, Pazos, Weaver, Mets, Giants

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With several divisions throughout Major League Baseball still up for grabs and numerous contenders still in the hunt for the Wild Card, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports runs through the strength of the rest-of-season schedule for each of the 14 teams with realistic hopes of securing a postseason bid. The Diamondbacks draw the unwelcome distinction of facing the toughest schedule of any team in baseball between now and season’s end, Passan notes, pointing out that from Sept. 6-26 they’ll play 20 games in 20 days against a grouping of teams with a combined .560 winning percentage. The Indians, meanwhile, land on the other end of the spectrum. Despite the fact that they have seven games against the Red Sox remaining, the rest of their schedule is more or less a romp through the hapless AL Central, with 10 games against the Royals and six against the White Sox highlighting what should be an easy path to the AL Central crown.

Some other miscellaneous items for your afternoon perusal…

  • Lefty James Pazos has been among the Mariners’ best relievers over the past two seasons, but Seattle optioned him to Triple-A on Sunday. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times examines the move, citing manager Scott Servais in writing that the organization feels that Pazos is in need of some mechanical corrections to get back into top form. Specifically, Servais indicated that Pazos “hasn’t been as consistent with his fastball” over the past six weeks or so, which has gotten him into trouble at times. The Mariners don’t expect Pazos to spend much more, if any, than the 10-day minimum in the minors as he works out the kinks, but Servais notes that he’s been falling behind hitters of late due to that fastball inconsistency. The organization, per Divish, has a “very detailed” plan for Pazos to follow in what sounds to be a brief trip to Tacoma.
  • Cardinals manager Mike Shildt tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the decision to move right-hander Luke Weaver from the rotation to the bullpen was “not an easy one.” Weaver looked to be among the game’s more promising young starters in 2017, and he’s shown flashes of brilliance in 2018, too, but has generally been inconsistent. Weaver cites his own lack of fastball control as the root of his struggles in a harsh self-evaluation but sounds to be taking the move in stride. “This move is not a slap in the face,” says the soon-to-be 25-year-old. “It’s about … finding a way where I can help the team, wherever it is. … It’s not going to shake me.”
  • The upcoming Mets/Giants series will provide fans with a contrast between a club that has excelled in terms of building minor league depth (the Giants) and one that has failed at doing so in recent seasons (the Mets), writes Tim Britton of The Athletic (subscription required). Britton notes that in Ryan Vogelsong, Santiago Casilla, Andres Torres and several others, San Francisco has consistently found value in minor league free agency. This season alone, he observes, the Giants have three minor league signees — Derek Holland, Dereck Rodriguez, Alen Hanson — who’ve provided the team with more than a win above replacement (per Fangraphs); conversely, the Mets have had only two players over the past four seasons combined that have reached even half a win by that same measure: Rene Rivera and Jose Reyes. Britton explores the Giants’ method of aggressively approaching minor league free agency, headed by assistant GM Jeremy Shelley, in an interesting look at the stark difference between the two clubs.

2017-18 Rule 5 Draft Update

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At this point of the season, it’s reasonable to expect the remaining Rule 5 players who are on big league rosters to hold those spots for the remainder of the season. That doesn’t mean that each has necessarily impressed to the point where he’s viewed as a viable long-term option, but with rosters set to expand in a couple of weeks and this much time already invested in each player, the remaining prospects who are clinging to eligibility have likely secured themselves a look in 2019 — even if it means opening the season in the minors.

When I last checked in on this year’s Rule 5-ers back in June, there were nine players either on active MLB rosters or on the big league disabled list, with the rest of this year’s class having been returned to their original organizations. That number hasn’t changed, though the complexion of the list is a bit different, and there have been some encouraging strides among the bunch. Here’s how the class looks at present:

Active Big Leaguers

  • Victor Reyes, OF, Tigers (from D-backs): Reyes still isn’t hitting much, but the Tigers have given him much more time in the outfield as the season wears on. The 23-year-old played just nine complete games through the end of June, but since July 1, he’s logged 22 full games of action in addition to numerous partial appearances where he’s either been pinch-hit for or entered the game as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement. Reyes is hitting just .244/.279/.256 through 86 PAs in July and August, so he’s not impressing at the plate in spite of the recent uptick in playing time. He is 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts and has registered solid defensive marks in the outfield. It still seems likely that he’ll be ticketed for regular work in Triple-A next season once he can be optioned.
  • Brad Keller, RHP, Royals (from D-backs): As the Kansas City Star’s Maria Torres noted over the weekend, Keller has been a rare bright spot in a largely abysmal season for the Royals. Keller posted underwhelming numbers in Double-A last season and skipped Triple-A entirely, but the Royals deserve some credit for nabbing him anyway last December. In 100 1/3 innings this year, Keller has posted a terrific 3.32 ERA. And while his 6.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 marks are underwhelming, he’s notched a strong 54.8 percent ground-ball rate. It remains to be seen if Keller can sustain his minuscule 0.45 HR/9 rate, though he’s never averaged even a homer per nine frames in the minors. Fielding-independent pitching metrics are fairly spread out on him, due in no small part to that low homer rate, but if he can settle in even as a pitcher capable of delivering an ERA in the low 4.00s over a season’s worth of starts, that’d make him a very successful pick.
  • Burch Smith, RHP, Royals (from Rays, via trade w/ Mets): Kansas City hasn’t been as successful with Smith, whose ERA sits at an ugly 6.54 through 64 2/3 innings — mostly out of the bullpen. He’s averaged 8.6 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9, and in addition to issuing too many walks, he’s been far too homer-prone (1.95 HR/9). More than 18 percent of the fly-balls against Smith have left the yard — a troubling trend for a pitcher with just a 39.4 percent ground-ball rate. Smith barely pitched from 2014-17 due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery, so the Royals may not want to give up on him in spite of the poor results. At this point, they’ve come far enough along that it could make sense to keep him around and see how he fares in the upper minors next season. He’ll be 29 in April, but he has minor league options remaining.
  • Carlos Tocci, OF, Rangers (from Phillies, via trade w/ White Sox): Tocci has been the most seldom-used player in the Majors, functioning almost exclusively as a defensive replacement for much of the season. He’s appeared in 51 games and totaled just 103 plate appearances, but the Rangers have given him a slight increase in playing time in August. This month, he’s started nine games and shown a bit of promise in that tiny sample, hitting .300/.323/.367 in 33 plate appearances — albeit with nine punchouts and just one walk. Tocci is hitting .207/.255/.250 overall, though, and appears ticketed for minor league work in 2019 even if his glove has been solid in limited work to date.
  • Elieser Hernandez, RHP, Marlins (from Astros): Hernandez, who turned 23 back in May, made the jump from High-A to the Majors and, unsurprisingly, has posted less-than-stellar results. He’s tossed 56 2/3 innings for Miami, including five starts, while working to a 5.08 ERA with 6.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.27 HR/9 and an extremely low 26.3 percent ground-ball rate. Some struggles were to be expected given the considerable jump he faced, however, and it’d be fair to say he’s at least held his own, given that he skipped both Double-A and Triple-A. He should survive the season with the rebuilding Marlins, and he’ll likely be ticketed for upper-minors work in 2019.
  • Brett Graves, RHP, Marlins (from Athletics): Graves was on the DL back in June, having missed the first two-plus months of the season with an oblique injury. Since making his big league debut, he’s posted a 6.23 ERA with 10 strikeouts against seven walks (two intentional) and three hit batters in 17 1/3 innings. The 25-year-old has primarily been a starter in the minors but has been used out of the bullpen in Miami to this point. He’s displayed good ground-ball tendencies thus far (53.6 percent) and has yet to allow a homer. Though he missed notable time this year, Graves was activated early enough that he’ll accrue the requisite 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 status this season — provided he doesn’t incur an injury before rosters expand.

On the Major League Disabled List

  • Julian Fernandez, RHP, Giants (from Rockies): Fernandez underwent Tommy John surgery back in April. He’ll accrue MLB service time while spending the season on the 60-day disabled list and will retain his Rule 5 status heading into 2019, if the Giants wish to hang onto him all offseason.
  • Pedro Araujo, RHP, Orioles (from Cubs): Araujo is the last of three Orioles picks from the 2017 Rule 5 Draft remaining on the big league roster, but he’s been on the DL since June 11 due to an elbow sprain. When he was active, he showed plenty of ability to miss bats (13.9 percent swinging-strike rate, 9.3 K/9) but also averaged 5.8 walks and a staggering 2.89 homers per nine innings pitched. It’s not clear if he’ll return this season, but if he doesn’t, he’ll retain his Rule 5 eligibility into 2019. The Orioles won’t be able to option him until he spends 90 days on the active MLB roster, and he’s a bit more than two weeks shy of that right now.
  • Nick Burdi, RHP, Pirates (from Twins via trade w/ Phillies): The flame-throwing Burdi missed nearly all of 2016 due to injury and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017, but he’s finally on the comeback trail in a new organization. Pittsburgh sent the former Louisville standout on a rehab assignment earlier this month, and he’s pitched seven innings with an 11-to-4 K/BB ratio across three levels so far. He’s yielded five earned runs in that time, though the Bucs likely aren’t focusing heavily on bottom-line results at this point of his recovery. Burdi will have to carry over his Rule 5 eligibility into the 2019 season if the Pirates wish to retain him, but he’s a highly intriguing bullpen piece who could be worth the investment. Burdi’s heater received 80 grades on the 20-80 scale prior to surgery, and he’s been touted as a potential big league closer since his college days.

Returned to Original Organization

AL Central Notes: Kopech, Eloy, Twins, Tigers

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White Sox fans will get a long-awaited first look at top pitching prospect Michael Kopech on Tuesday, and GM Rick Hahn spoke to the media today about the decision to bring the prized righty to the Majors (links to Twitter via James Fegan of The Athletic, Daryl Van-Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times and Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Hahn said that the team feels Kopech has turned a corner recently and that the organizational hope all along has been to get a look at how he fares against big league hitters at some point during the 2018 season. Chicago made Kopech earn the promotion, but with a 59-to-4 K/BB ratio across his pat 44 innings, the control troubles he’s battled throughout the minors look to be much improved. The Sox aren’t announcing who’ll be bumped from the rotation, but Hahn said that Kopech will start every fifth day, though the team will be “flexible” and conscientious of his innings, as he’s already just eight shy of his career-high 134 frames.

As for slugging outfielder Eloy Jimenez, White Sox fans will have to wait a bit longer. Hahn said that Jimenez will “remain in [Triple-A] Charlotte at this time” and will be further evaluated in the coming weeks (Twitter link via Van Schouwen).

Here’s more from the division…

  • Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey spoke with Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune about the team’s summer sale of veteran assets, acknowledging that it’s a change of course from how the organization has typically operated in the past. Falvey, GM Thad Levine and the rest of the Twins front office traded six players — Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Pressly, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, Brian Dozier and Fernando Rodney — in under two weeks when it became apparent that their postseason hopes had all but evaporated. Falvey indicated that, having previously worked under then-GM Mark Shapiro in Cleveland, dealing away short-term assets to stockpile controllable talent was “common practice” even if it’s a “departure from the norm” for Twins fans. As Zack Meisel of The Athletic recently explored, though (subscription required), such trades helped pave the way for Cleveland’s current success; the Indians acquired each of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger in exchange for a short-term veteran upgrade.
  • Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press spoke with Tigers GM Al Avila about the team’s rebuilding process over the weekend. Though Avila has fully committed to a multi-year rebuild of the organization, he was not shy about expressing the difficulty he has in watching his club struggle — even if the results were largely expected. “This is why people try to avoid rebuilds,” said the GM. “Because the rebuilds are very, very tough on everybody’s mentality and psyche and they drive you crazy. I know it’s driven me crazy.” Still, Avila discussed the importance of finding reasons for optimism in the farm system and of the positive strides some prospects have made in 2018 as the team looks to the future. Fenech notes that a number of farmhands, Daz Cameron perhaps chief among them, have made encouraging strides in ’18. The interview is rife with quotes from Avila, who explained that the Tigers had little choice but to commit to a rebuild and vowed to fans that the ultimate payoff “will be worth it.”

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