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Dominic Smith

Mets Notes: Paddack, Hosmer, Smith, Bassitt

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Chris Paddack’s recent Tommy John surgery has brought a new focus on the rumored offseason trade between the Mets and Padres that would have seen San Diego move Paddack, Eric Hosmer, Emilio Pagan, and over $30MM (to help cover Hosmer’s salary) to New York in exchange for Dominic Smith.  Trade talks reportedly got pretty deep between the two sides, but ultimately fell apart due to what The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports as concerns from the Mets’ medical staff about Paddack’s health records.

With Paddack now on the shelf until at least partway through the 2023 season, it appears as though New York’s team doctors made the right call.  Interestingly, Heyman reports that the Mets were also planning to flip Hosmer in another trade with an unknown team, rather than use the first baseman in their own lineup.  Given the difficulties that the Padres have had for months in finding a taker for Hosmer, it would’ve been a little surprising to see him moved twice in short order, though it is also easy to imagine Hosmer’s market picking up with the Padres eating so much of his contract.

More from the Amazins….

  • This isn’t the first time Dominic Smith has been a trade candidate, as the former top prospect has swung from cornerstone to expendable multiple times in his career.  Smith has struggled to a .552 OPS over his first 79 plate appearances and isn’t pleased about being back in a part-time role.  “Being here since I was 22, now I’m 26, and still in the same position….If there’s a team out there that wants me to play and wants to let me play, I would love to play every day.  That’s just how I feel about that,” Smith told Newsday’s Anthony Rieber.  However, Smith also stressed that he feels he can get the opportunity with the Mets, saying “I feel like I can impact this team in a number of ways, and that’s being [in the lineup] every day, in my opinion.”  Even after Robinson Cano’s release theoretically should’ve created more at-bats for Smith at the DH spot, Smith still isn’t playing very often, seemingly caught in the catch-22 of not hitting well enough to earn more playing time, yet also not being able to get into a groove due to that lack of playing time.
  • Chris Bassitt and the Mets agreed to a one-year deal (with a mutual option for 2023) today, which avoids the need for the two sides to determine Bassitt’s 2022 salary in an arbitration hearing.  Speaking to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters, Bassitt said he was “happy that it’s not going to be a distraction for anybody,” given how the lockout has pushed several unsettled arbitration cases into the actual season.  While Bassitt said he would like to with the Mets beyond 2022, that same desire to just concentrate on this season doesn’t make it seem likely that extension talks will take place until the winter.  “A lot of people are short-term thinking right now this year.  We have such a special group that I don’t really want to be a distraction and hurt that in any way,” Bassitt said.

Padres, Mets Reportedly Stalled On Hosmer Trade Talks

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4:57PM: Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that talks may have stalled entirely after the two sides “hit a snag” in negotiations.  Sherman is even more blunt, saying the proposed trade “is not going to happen.”

8:50 AM: A potential deal between the two sides would be a little more complex than initially presumed. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter), the Padres would unsurprisingly need to eat a fair amount of the money owed to Hosmer in order to make this deal work. Specifically, the Padres would cover roughly $30MM or more of Hosmer’s deal, bringing Hosmer’s per annum down to $6-7MM per year, per Sherman.

The Mets would also get reliever Emilio Pagan in the deal. Pagan has at times looked like a premier bullpen arm during his five seasons in the bigs with the Mariners, Rays, A’s, and Padres. The 30-year-old is an option to close games if he stays in San Diego, whereas in New York he would slot into a fairly deep collection of right-handed setup arms that includes Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, Miguel Castro, Trevor May, and Seth Lugo.

7:55 AM: The Mets have spent the offseason pushing full-bore towards fielding a competitive squad, but the fragility of an offseason win became clear yesterday with the news of ace Jacob deGrom being shut down for the next four weeks. The panic alarm has sounded, but the Mets are not without solutions.

In fact, they just so happen to have been in conversation with the Padres for the past couple of weeks about different trade scenarios, at least one of which could bring another arm to New York to help plug the leak. Per The Athletic’s Dennis Lin, Ken Rosenthal, and others, a potential deal could center around Eric Hosmer and Chris Paddack heading to the Mets, while Dominic Smith would go to San Diego.

The Padres have been trying to move off of Hosmer’s money for quite some time now, and the freewheeling Mets may now have a big enough need in the rotation to consider taking him back. There’s some urgency for the Padres here, as Hosmer’s partial no-trade clause turns into full 10-and-5 rights at the end of this season. Of course, if he is traded, Hosmer’s contract has a clause that says he cannot be traded twice without his consent, so he will essentially get his no-trade clause by the end of the 2022 campaign regardless for whom he plays.

With $59MM over four years left on his deal, Hosmer does not have positive trade value – not after fWAR totals of 0.0, 0.9, -0.3, and -0.1 over the past four seasons. Entering his age-32 season, one doesn’t expect Hosmer to flourish overnight. Furthermore, the Mets absolutely have no need for him, not with Pete Alonso on the roster.

Acquiring Hosmer would mean pushing the Mets deeper into luxury tax territory with a payroll nearing $300MM, notes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Mets might be willing to take him if they can reinforce their rotation at the same time, however.

Enter Paddack. The 26-year-old has three years of team control remaining and significant upside. He’s far from a sure thing, however. His numbers declined for the third consecutive season last year when he finished with a 5.07 ERA across 108 1/3 innings. A slightly torn UCL might be the cause of the decline, but that’s not necessarily a situation that has totally resolved itself. Paddack would, therefore, be an option to slide into deGrom’s rotation spot, but he’s far from a panacea for the Mets’ long-term concerns.

In the short term, he might not even be an upgrade over Tylor Megill, the presumptive fifth starter in deGrom’s absence. Megill posted a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP over 18 starts covering 89 2/3 innings in 2021 – his first taste of big league action. The Mets could certainly begin the season with Megill in the rotation and see how things go from there.

For the Padres part, their motivation would mostly be to shed Hosmer’s contract. They have enough rotation depth, theoretically, to weather the loss of Paddack, and in Smith, they’d be getting back a comparable bat that’s cheaper, more versatile, and with more theoretical upside than Hosmer. He’s also under team control for two more seasons beyond 2022, though those seasons aren’t guaranteed, should he continue to struggle at the dish.

For the first part of his career, the story on Smith was that he needed at-bats, but his natural position of first base was spoken for, so his ceiling was no more than that of a bit player. Then the designated hitter came to the NL in 2020, Smith starting taking flyballs in left field, and the offensive promise came to fruition with a .316/.377/.616 line over 199 plate appearances during the shortened campaign.

He again saw fairly stable playing time in 2021, but the numbers cratered to an 86 wRC+ by way of a  .244/.304/.363 line across  494 plate appearances , more than doubling his previous career-high in that regard. The Padres do need a left fielder, and Smith could step right in at first base were this deal to go down. Still, for San Diego, this deal is mostly about moving off of Hosmer. There are options out there for left field – including former Met Michael Conforto – but Smith would certainly be worth rostering if acquiring him meant removing Hosmer from the payroll.

Mets No Longer Looking To Trade Smith, McNeil, Davis?

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Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil, and J.D. Davis have all been mentioned as possible or even likely trade candidates due to the Mets’ new influx of position players, yet it now seems as though the club is leaning against a deal.  According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the trio are now “expected to stay” in New York, with a trade of Smith or McNeil in particular looking like a “long shot.”

Of course, there could be some gamesmanship at play here for the Mets.  Publicly, the club has always expressed an interest in keeping the players, with manager Buck Showalter saying earlier this week that he saw McNeil as the team’s regular second baseman.  Saying the same thing privately could simply be a way of trying to entice more of a trade return from interested teams, as one would imagine the Mets would indeed deal any of the three players if another club made a big enough offer.

On the face of it, however, it also makes sense why the Mets would want to retain any or all of the three.  Several members of New York’s veteran roster have battled injury problems either in past seasons or as recently as 2021, plus Robinson Cano is an x-factor in his return from a season-long PED suspension.  Having Davis, McNeil, and Smith on hand as depth would be a big help for the Mets in the event of more injury problems, and the introduction of the DH spot also provides more opportunity to rotate bats in and out of the lineup, so everyone can theoretically stay fresh.

Health issues impacted each of Davis, McNeil, and Smith last season, resulting in only 73 games played for Davis, and both missed time and subpar performance for McNeil and Smith.  It’s safe to assume that these injuries factored into trade talks, as rival teams were likely unwilling to pay a premium for anyone coming off a checkered season, while the Mets likely aren’t keen on selling low on any of the three players.

In Smith’s case, the first baseman played virtually the entire season hurt, as he recently told SI.com’s Pat Ragazzo.  In trying to compensate for a wrist strain suffered in Spring Training, Smith then developed a partial tear in his right labrum in late May or early June.  Labrum surgery wasn’t required, but between the shoulder and wrist problems and a groin injury, Smith hit only .244/.304/.363 with 11 home runs over 493 plate appearances.

After a lot of offseason work to heal and rehab, Smith told Ragazzo that “Nothing hurts right now.  Trust me, if something hurts, everybody will know.  I won’t be out there playing if I’m hurt.  That’s something that’s going to change from the past.”  In regards to his shoulder, Smith felt it had healed but “it’s good enough to go” for the season.  “You still take some swings and feel stuff, and that’s just a part of it.  But….it’s a lot better than last year, I will say that.”

Martino reports that the Padres are one of the teams who have interest in McNeil and Smith, and that interest in Smith has continued even in the wake of San Diego’s acquisition of first baseman Luke Voit.  With Voit now adding to an already crowded first base/DH situation for the Padres, presumably any Smith deal would hinge on the Padres being able to fulfill their aim of trading Eric Hosmer, though Smith can also play left field.  The versatile McNeil could play second base, third base, or either corner outfield spot for San Diego, which would give the Padres some flexibility as they try to fill the void left by Fernando Tatis Jr.’s wrist surgery.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

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We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts.  Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet.  Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point.  Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place.  Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market.  We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets.  The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars.  One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected.  For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three.  Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll.  Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt.  Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration.  He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March.  Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+.  Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards.  It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson.  He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected.  The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal.  Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game.  The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2.  Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018.  It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends.  Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+.  In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019.  Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19.  He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021.  Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors.  The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing.  A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining.  We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022.  The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3.  Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation.  We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration.  Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA.  While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01.  He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September.  Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency.  He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4.  Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate.  It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out.  Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday.  Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time.  In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best.  Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage.  Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September.  He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas?  He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5.  Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post.  The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022.  He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate.  Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6.  After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72.  Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings.  After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either.  So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable.  He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6.  Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings.  The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball.  The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout.  They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.  That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary.  Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable.  I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen.  The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7.  Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons.  He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards.  With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario.  Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017.  He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger.  Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field.  Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over.  The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8.  Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list.  Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency.  They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH.  A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano.  But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021.  It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested?  Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game.  After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties.  He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21.  Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July.  He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old.  He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining.  I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH.  The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9.  J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022.  He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020.  This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October.  By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart.  While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22.  As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit.  Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21.  A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well.  It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average.  It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position.  On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs.  While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis.  I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10.  Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here.  As such, he’s the least likely to be traded.  In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20.  Escobar is also capable of playing second base.  McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well.  It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays.  Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected.  A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20.  Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period.  A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well.  McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021.  McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month.  He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat.  30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11.  Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job.  As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well.  Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher.  Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career.  WAR is always tricky with catchers.  FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross.  The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency.  Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras.  At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload.  The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending.  A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends.  A midseason trade is a possibility as well.  The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12.  Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade.  He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19.  His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain.  Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19.  He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration.  He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return.  Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13.  Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi.  After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th.   Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month.  In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches.  In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury.  Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart.  32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year.  He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings.  You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season.  The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14.  Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees.  However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production.  This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee.  He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time.  We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year.  He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry!  We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

Mets Looking To Trade Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith?

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With both Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith coming off disappointing 2021 seasons, “there is some expectation within the industry the Mets will trade” at least one of the duo after the lockout, Mike Puma of The New York Post writes.  Back in late November, MetsMerized’s Michael Mayer tweeted that “multiple teams” had been in touch with the Mets about a McNeil trade.

Since the Mets bolstered their everyday lineup by signing Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar, there has been plenty of speculation about what the club would do with a suddenly-crowded mix of position players.  Between the three new faces and Robinson Cano returning from suspension, McNeil, Smith, and J.D. Davis suddenly looked to be short on regular playing time.  Even if the National League does adopt the DH in the next collective bargaining agreement, there might be a greater chance that the free-spending Mets fill that extra lineup spot with another established star, Puma notes.

This is far from the first time that either McNeil or Smith have figured into trade rumors.  Smith drew plenty of trade buzz following his big performance (over 197 plate appearances) in 2019, as the Mets’ glut of first base and outfield talent seemed to leave Smith without a position.  Injuries and the NL’s use of the DH in 2020 opened up more space for Smith in 2020, however, and he responded with even bigger numbers.

Smith hit a cumulative .299/.366/.571 with 21 home runs in 396 PA in 2019-20, but that production dropped sharply last year, with only a .244/.304/.363 slash line and 11 homers over 493 PA.  While Smith benefited from a .368 BABIP in 2020, that number dropped to .298 in 2021, and Smith’s isolated power also dropped from .299 to only .119.  Less hard contact in general could be the reason so few of Smith’s flyballs translated to homers or doubles, and rival teams also increased their usages of defensive shifts against the left-handed hitter.  After posting big numbers against the shift in 2019-20, Smith only had a .265 wOBA against shifts last season, with teams deploying the shift 60.1% of the time (as per Statcast).

McNeil looked like a future lineup staple over his first three seasons in Queens, highlighted by an All-Star appearance in 2019.  However, the super-utilityman also had a lot less batted-ball luck in 2021, with a .280 BABIP following a .342 BABIP from 2018-20.  While McNeil continued to be one of the harder players in the league to strike out, he didn’t make much hard contact even in his three good years, which finally caught up to him last season.  Injuries may have also been a factor, as McNeil missed over a month of the season due to a strained hamstring.

Beyond just the on-the-field struggles, McNeil also had a highly-publicized altercation with Francisco Lindor on May 7, resulting in Lindor reportedly grabbing McNeil by the throat before teammates pulled the two apart.  The incident created some belief that the Mets were simply ready to part ways with McNeil, though naturally the team isn’t going to just give him away for nothing on the trade market.

Both Smith and McNeil are controlled through the 2024 season, with Smith in his second year of salary arbitration (as a Super Two player) and McNeil in his first.  Smith is projected to earn $4MM in 2022 and McNeil $2.8MM, and thus both players would be bargains if they could regain their pre-2021 form.  Between this controlability and their recent success, Smith and McNeil both still have a solid amount of trade value, even if suitors would have some justifiable question marks in the wake of their respective down years.  That said, an argument could be made that either McNeil or Smith might benefit from a change of scenery away from the drama that has swirled around the Mets in recent years.

McNeil is heading into his age-30 season and is over three years older than Smith, but he might have more overall value due to his defensive versatility.  McNeil has seen quite a bit of time as a second baseman, third baseman, and corner outfielder over his four years in New York, whereas Smith hasn’t looked good defensively in the outfield and has been only passable at first base.  Pete Alonso has Smith blocked at first base, of course, so the DH slot might be Smith’s best shot at getting regular playing time if he does stay with the Mets.  In terms of trade interest, teams might not be too willing to part with a premium return for a first base-only player, especially one coming off a lackluster season at the plate.

It stands to reason that moving one of McNeil, Smith, or Davis would help the Mets address other roster needs, but an argument can also be made that the team could or should simply retain that entire trio for the sake of depth.  Since injuries and unforeseen issues like Cano’s suspension left the Mets so shorthanded in 2021, figuring out ways to raise the talent floor should be a priority for new GM Billy Eppler.  Also, new manager Buck Showalter is no stranger to figuring out ways to juggle playing time and maximize the skills of every player on his roster.

NL East Health Notes: Soroka, Phillies, Nats, D. Smith

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Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos told Fox Sports South that right-hander Mike Soroka could make his season debut in mid-April, David O’Brien of The Athletic relays. Soroka got through his third simulated game of the spring without any issues Friday. The 23-year-old remains on the comeback trail from a torn right Achilles that limited him to three starts last season. Before that, Soroka burst on the scene with 174 2/3 innings of 2.68 ERA pitching in 2019.

More from the National League East:

  • Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto played a sim game Friday and could make his Grapefruit League debut next week, manager Joe Girardi announced (via Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer). The star has been on the mend from a fractured right thumb. Girardi added that outfielder Adam Haseley is “ahead of schedule” in his recovery from a groin strain. Haseley, who went down March 5, hasn’t officially been ruled out for Opening Day.
  • Sticking with the Phillies, righty Vince Velasquez has an oblique injury, Girardi told Matt Gelb of The Athletic and other reporters. The severity is unknown, but oblique injuries often lead to absences that last for multiple weeks. It could be another shot to Philly’s staff, which has also seen Zach Eflin and Spencer Howard deal with injuries this spring. Velasquez could be their fifth starter to open 2021 if Eflin and Howar aren’t ready to go. In the event all three are shelved, though, it might open the door for veteran minor league addition Ivan Nova to claim a job.
  • Nationals center fielder Victor Robles exited Friday’s game with back tightness, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. It doesn’t seem particularly serious, but the Nats will know more Saturday. Meanwhile, it was an encouraging day for righty Stephen Strasburg, who got through a 74-pitch sim game without any problems, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com tweets. A calf injury has slowed Strasburg this spring, after the former World Series MVP missed almost all of 2020 – the first season of a seven-year, $245MM contract – with carpal tunnel syndrome.
  • Mets slugger Dominic Smith informed Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters that he could return to Grapefruit League action as early as Sunday. Smith, the favorite to start in left field for the Mets, has been dealing with a right wrist issue that has sidelined him for the past couple of the days. He posted back-to-back excellent seasons at the plate from 2019-20, during which he combined for a .299/.366/.571 line with 21 home runs in 396 PA.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Latest On Dominic Smith

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Mets first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith entered the winter looking like a prime trade candidate, but nothing has come together a few months since the team’s season ended. Perhaps Smith could still end up on the move in the coming weeks, but he’s not part of any “active trade talks” right now, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

A former top-100 prospect, Smith was a letdown at the major league level from 2017-18, but his production trended in the right direction last season. The 24-year-old slashed an impressive .282/.355/.525 with 11 home runs over 197 plate appearances. He dealt with injuries, though, and came up short in the Statcast category, evidenced by a .327 expected weighted on-base average that fell 41 points shy of his actual wOBA of .368.

Defensively, most of Smith’s action last year came in the corner outfield, but the team’s overrun by options in that area. Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis and the returning Yoenis Cespedes are all capable of playing there. While Smith’s more of a first baseman, good luck finding at-bats in that spot with NL Rookie of the Year winner Pete Alonso holding it down.

The Mets added lefty-hitting first baseman Matt Adams on a minors contract Friday, so he might serve as a fallback option if they do trade Smith. However, with the offseason winding down, a deal could be hard to come by for the club, as some of the teams that had the worst first base situations in the game last year have addressed the position since then (the Tigers signed C.J. Cron and the Marlins added Jesus Aguilar, to name two examples).

Speculatively, clubs like the Rangers, Royals and Orioles could still make sense for Smith, though it’s unknown whether they’ve shown interest in him. It’s also no sure thing the Mets even want to give Smith up, as Tim Healey of Newsday tweets that they’ve not “felt compelled to move him.” Even if New York’s loaded with other possibilities at Smith’s positions, the fact that he’s cheap, controllable depth surely appeals to the team. Smith’s not scheduled to reach arbitration for another year, and he’ll be eligible to go through the process four times.

Trade Candidate: Dominic Smith

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Plenty went wrong for the Mets in 2019, their third straight season without a playoff berth, but the oft-maligned franchise nonetheless turned in a fairly respectable campaign. They got off the mat after an awful start to win 86 games, right-hander Jacob deGrom won his second consecutive National League Cy Young Award, and slugging first baseman Pete Alonso burst on the scene to mash 53 home runs en route to NL Rookie of the Year honors. Aside from Alonso, there were other legitimately encouraging developments among the Mets’ position player group, including the performance of fellow first baseman Dominic Smith.

It appeared entering the season that Smith was teetering on the brink of irrelevance, even though he wasn’t far removed from his days as a touted prospect. The 11th overall pick of the Mets in 2013, Smith debuted in the majors in 2017 as one of the game’s 100 best farmhands, but he fell way short of the hype at the outset of his career.

From 2017-18, a 332-plate appearance span, the lefty-swinging Smith put up a dismal .210/.259/.406 batting line. Smith’s minus-1.0 fWAR in that time frame ranked dead last among all 79 Mets who racked up at-bats, and he also struggled badly at the Triple-A level during the latter of the two seasons. As a result, fans, media and maybe even the organization were down on Smith, though he came back in 2019 to produce far better results than the average major league hitter.

Alonso’s presence and injuries to Smith helped keep him from playing a full season, but he still impressed during an 89-game, 197-PA sample. Playing his age-24 season, Smith batted .282/.355/.525 (133 wRC+) with 11 home runs and a lofty .243 ISO. Plus, after combining for a 28.4 percent strikeout rate with a 5.4 percent walk rate during the prior two years, he made serious strides in those departments. Smith went down on strikes at a 22.3 percent clip and drew free passes 9.6 percent of the time. He also chased fewer pitches outside the zone, made more contact and was equally effective against southpaws (132 wRC+) and righties (133 wRC+), though his success versus same-handed pitchers came over a much smaller sample size.

While Smith did take real steps forward last season, it appears there was some good fortune involved. Smith finished the season with a .368 weighted on-base average, but his .327 xwOBA (via Statcast) didn’t measure up. Even if you’re unconcerned by that and regard Smith as someone who could be a long-term offensive linchpin, it’s up in the air whether he’ll play another game for the Mets. Consider: Alonso has first base on lockdown, there’s no designated hitter option in the NL, and although Smith did get most of his playing time last season in the corner outfield, he’s part of a logjam there for the Mets. Not only could Yoenis Cespedes come back after a couple injury-crushed seasons, but the corner OF-capable foursome of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis remains on hand. Those players’ presences could help push Smith to the trade block and out of Queens.

As mentioned, Smith’s coming off a season in which he made clear progress. He also has another pre-arbitration season left and isn’t on track to reach free agency until after the 2024 campaign. All of those factors should buoy Smith’s trade value, as should the dearth of high-end first basemen in free agency, yet he’s still not going to bring back any kind of haul. Smith’s position, his lack of a track record in the bigs and a lack of demand for first basemen have likely tamped down his appeal on the market. Ultimately, it seems possible New York will use Smith to get rid of one of its undesirable contracts (Jed Lowrie? Jeurys Familia?), as Ken Rosenthal recently reported the Mets and Rangers were in talks on such a deal. The Rangers still haven’t upgraded at first, where Ronald Guzman was a disaster in 2019, so they might remain interested in Smith. The Red Sox, Royals and Twins also make for a few debatable landing spots.

For now, Smith looks like one of the most logical trade candidates in baseball. However, if the Mets don’t receive an offer to their liking, they keep Smith as a bench player or stash him as depth in Triple-A ball. Smith still has a pair of minor league options left, but he seems overqualified for anything below the majors at this point. Regardless, it doesn’t appear Smith will be able to carve out a regular role for himself as a Met, so a trade could be the best move for his career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Rumors: Rangers, Smith, Lowrie, Blue Jays, Frazier, Cubs

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The Athletics aren’t the only AL West team interested in Jed Lowrie’s services, as the Rangers have been in talks with the Mets about a deal that would send both Lowrie and Dominic Smith to the Lone Star State, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  However, “talks to this point have failed to progress” between the two clubs.  It’s fair to guess that Smith was the Rangers’ real target in these negotiations, as Smith would be the sweetener added to the deal in exchange for the Rangers assuming most or all of the remaining $12MM on Lowrie’s contract.  New York is reportedly trying to create payroll space by shopping high-priced names like Lowrie or Jeurys Familia to other teams.

Smith is perhaps a bit of a curious fit for the Rangers, given that Texas already has a plethora of left-handed hitting first base/DH/corner outfield types, and only just dealt from that surplus in sending Nomar Mazara to the White Sox.  Still, adding a 24-year-old with five seasons of control has obvious value for the Rangers, as Shin-Soo Choo’s contract is up after the 2020 campaign, and Ronald Guzman could become expendable in the event of Smith joining the roster.  While Lowrie missed virtually all of 2019 due to injury, he also offers more to Texas than just a salary dump if he’s able to stay healthy.  If Lowrie was able to recapture anything close to his 2017-18 form, he’d represent a good third base answer if the Rangers weren’t able to sign Josh Donaldson.

More trade talk as we near the end of the Winter Meetings…

  • Though the Blue Jays have been mostly linked to free agents this winter, the club is apparently being just as diligent on the trade front, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  In addition to Toronto’s known interest in Yankees southpaw J.A. Happ, the Jays have checked in with the Red Sox about David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr., and with the Pirates about right-hander Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove.  It doesn’t seem like any of these particular options are close, however, as Davidi notes that “the cost in both dollars and prospect capital remains too high” for Price, Bradley, and Happ.  The Jays and Pirates have been speculatively linked as trade partners since Ben Cherington recently went from Toronto’s front office to the GM chair in Pittsburgh, though this familiarity may not necessarily be a plus.  As Davidi puts it, Cherington “may think too similarly to his former colleagues for a deal to be struck.”
  • As the Pirates weigh a lot of interest in Adam Frazier, the Athletics are involved but perhaps no better than Pittsburgh’s third option as a trade partner, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports (Twitter link).  The left-handed hitting Frazier would be an ideal fit to help balance out Oakland’s heavily right-handed lineup, and would provide some experience to a young collection of second base candidates.  Frazier isn’t old himself (he is a few days away from his 28th birthday) and is still controllable through three years of arbitration eligibility.
  • While the Cubs are reportedly working hard towards swinging some (potentially major) trades, the possibility exists that the 2020 roster will look a lot like last year’s edition, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and other media.  “The makings of a very good team is currently under control on our roster, with a chance to win a division.  And do that, and you have a chance to have a great October,” Epstein said, though “status quo is not a bad option, but we’re obviously out there looking to make changes and change the dynamic and improve.”  It could be that the Cubs won’t become big players in the trade market until most or all of the top free agents have selected their new teams.  In the case of Kris Bryant, for example, “officials from two teams aggressively trying to fill third-base needs…said the Cubs were asking too much for Bryant to seriously consider him while other options remained available,” Wittenmyer writes.
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