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Guardians Re-Sign Austin Hedges To One-Year Deal

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The Guardians announced that they have re-signed catcher Austin Hedges to a one-year deal. The Boras Corporation client gets the same $4MM salary that he had last year.

Hedges, 32, has carved out a decade-long career in a unique way as he’s one of the worst performers at the plate but one of the best behind it. In 2,359 career plate appearances, Hedges has hit .186/.243/.315. That production translates to a wRC+ of 50, meaning he’s been 50% worse than league average as a hitter in his career.

But he has also produced 91 Defensive Runs Saved over the past decade, the top mark of any backstop in the league for that time frame. Roberto Pérez and Buster Posey are the next two names on that list, though Posey retired years ago and Pérez hasn’t contributed in a while due to injuries. No other catcher has even 50 DRS in that time. For that same frame, Hedges is second to only Yasmani Grandal in terms of the FanGraphs framing metric. Outlets like Statcast and Baseball Prospectus also give him glowing grades for his glovework.

Teams have generally tolerated the poor offense in order to get at that strong work behind the plate. He has maybe been pushing the limits of their patience, as his offense has declined even relative to his own low standards recently. He hit .184/.234/.227 last year for a wRC+ of 23 and then .152/.203/.220 for a wRC+ of 20 this year. The latter line was with the Guardians after they signed him to a one-year, $4MM deal. Since they are bringing him back, it seems they have no buyer’s remorse and are happy to sign up for another year of poor hitting but strong work otherwise.

Hedges got essentially half as much playing time as Bo Naylor in 2024, getting 146 plate appearances over 66 games while Naylor got 389 trips to the plate in 123 games. Presumably, a similar timeshare will be the plan for 2025. Naylor also had strong defensive grades this year, although with a better performance with the bat.

The Guardians put together a successful campaign with this duo behind the plate this year, winning the American League Central and progressing as far as the American League Championship Series. The rotation was a bit of a struggle but much of the club’s success was due to having the best bullpen in the league.

Cleveland relievers had a 2.57 ERA in 2024, easily the best in the majors with only four clubs within a run of that. The Brewers were second at 3.11, then Atlanta at 3.32, the Dodgers at 3.53 and Tigers at 3.55. The pitchers are obviously a big part of that but having capable receivers undoubtedly helps.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Guardians and Hedges had agreed to a one-year deal. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported the $4MM salary.

Spenser Watkins Signs With CPBL’s TSG Hawks

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Right-hander Spenser Watkins has signed a one-year deal with the TSG Hawks of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today on X. The righty is a client of Gaeta Sports Management.

Watkins, 32, has appeared in 40 major league games, suiting up for the Orioles and Athletics over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He tossed 164 1/3 innings over those appearances, allowing 5.97 earned runs per nine. He struck out 13.9% of batters faced, walked 6.9% of opponents and got grounders on 38.4% of balls in play.

He signed a minor league deal with the Nationals going into 2024 but never got the call to the big leagues. He tossed 118 1/3 Triple-A innings on the year with a 4.56 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 45.8% ground ball rate.

If he had stayed in North America, he likely would have been looking at another minor league deal and more riding the bus while hoping to get the big league call. By heading to join the Hawks, he’ll get to explore new horizons while also likely collecting a larger paycheck than he would on the farm.

Mariners Prioritizing Infield Bats

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The Mariners are once again looking to upgrade their offense this winter after 2024’s underwhelming results at the plate squandered a terrific season from their pitching staff. Unsurprisingly, general manager Justin Hollander tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the M’s view second base as a priority this offseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that the M’s would also like to add at first base. Ideally, Seattle would add one bat to help out at second or third base — with Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore a potential platoon at the other spot — and another at first base. Hollander downplayed the idea of adding to the outfield, telling FanSided’s Robert Murray that between Randy Arozarena in left, Julio Rodriguez in center, Victor Robles in right and Luke Raley as a corner outfield/first base/DH option, the Mariners feel they have potential for a “pretty high-end outfield.”

With the offseason just days old, there are of course virtually limitless options to explore via free agency and trade. Morosi reports that Seattle is among the teams to have evaluated Hyeseong Kim, the star second baseman of the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes. Kim, 25, is scheduled to be posted for MLB clubs to bid on this winter. Rosenthal lists a reunion with Justin Turner as something Seattle could pursue. He cautions against the likelihood of the Mariners spending to the levels necessary to add longtime division rival Alex Bregman or (to a lesser extent) first baseman Christian Walker.

Kim, 26 in January, hit .326/.383/.458 with 11 home runs, 30 steals, an 8.3% walk rate and just a 10.9% strikeout rate for the Heroes this past season. He’s been a plus hitter three straight seasons in the KBO but is more of a contact-, speed- and defense-oriented player, as he’s not considered to have much home run pop. This past season’s 11 round-trippers were a career-high. Turner, of course, finished out the 2024 season in Seattle after coming over from the Blue Jays in a trade. He batted .264/.363/.403 in 190 plate appearances as a Mariner. His overall .259/.354/.383 slash is a ways from peak levels, and Turner will turn 40 later this month. That said, he was still a productive big league hitter this past season.

The Mariners’ expected focus on infield bats — and their flexibility to look at multiple positions — was laid out in our Mariners Offseason Outlook. As noted in that piece a few weeks back, Kim and Gleyber Torres are two particularly interesting options at second base, and both are likely to be relatively affordable. Former Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim could technically be a fit at second or third base, but he’s likely to miss the beginning of the season following his recent shoulder surgery and derives a good bit of his value from his plus glovework. He’d be a less-than-ideal fit if the goal is to bolster the offense from day one.

Meanwhile, signing Bregman or Willy Adames (perhaps with eye toward moving him to third base) would represent a major philosophical departure from the Mariners’ past mode of operation. The M’s have only given out one multi-year deal to a free agent position player under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto — that being last winter’s two-year, $24MM pact to Mitch Garver. Rosenthal suggests that signing a $100MM+ deal could be outside the team’s budget, but even beyond that, it’s simply not how Dipoto has historically operated.

The trade market could present various alternatives. The Rays will likely listen to offers on Yandy Diaz, making him one speculative fit at first base. He’d align well with Seattle’s desire to reduce their MLB-worst strikeout rate and is slated to earn $10MM next year with a $12MM club option for 2026. Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe, owed $10.5MM with an $11.5MM club option for 2026, is another on-paper fit. He wouldn’t reduce the team’s strikeout rate, but he’s a potential impact bat with multiple years of club control. Cleveland could listen to offers on slugging first baseman Josh Naylor.

However things play out, the M’s will be looking to once again redraw an offense that has struggled to make contact at one of the most glaring rates in the league. In addition to tying the Rockies with an MLB-high 26.8% strikeout rate, Mariners hitters had the league’s third-lowest overall contact rate (74%) and were tied for MLB’s second-worst contact rate on swings at pitches within the strike zone (82.9%). The Seattle lineup actually chased pitches off the plate at the fourth-lowest rate in MLB … but their contact rate on those swings was still the third-worst.

Willy Adames Reportedly Willing To Move Off Shortstop

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The best available free agent shortstop is Willy Adames but he could also expand his market by playing elsewhere. Per Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic, Adames wants to stay at short but would be willing to move to other positions for the right offer from a competitive club. On the Baseball Tonight podcast, Jorge Castillo of ESPN says the Mets have considered signing Adames and moving him to third while others have also considered second base (39:05 mark of this link at Apple Podcasts link).

Adames probably doesn’t need to make the shift based on his abilities, though he is coming off a bit of a down year in terms of his glovework. He was credited with 10 fielding errors in 2024, more than the seven he had in the previous two seasons combined. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a dismal grade of -16 for the year while Outs Above Average merely had him at par. However, DRS gave him a positive grade in each of the previous five seasons while Adames had a big +16 grade from OAA in 2023 and +10 the year prior.

Clubs could view that more as an outlier season, as opposed to Adames suddenly falling off a cliff defensively at the age of 28. Still, there’s logic to him being open to a position change. Any free agent is helped by having more suitors, as a more fervent bidding war can drive up prices, as opposed to a stagnant market that sees the player linger in free agency. Adames has no third base experience in the big leagues and only a small amount at second, but most shortstops are able to pivot elsewhere on the diamond without much issue. He has a .248/.322/.444 career batting line and hit .251/.331/.462 for a 119 wRC+ in 2024, offense that would play at any position.

There are plenty of clubs that already have shortstops but could perhaps use help at second or third, with the Mets being one of them. They have one of the best shortstops in the league in Francisco Lindor, who is under contract through 2031 and just wrapped up a strong season that might see him finish second to Shohei Ohtani in National League Most Valuable Player voting.

But second and third base are a bit more open. Jeff McNeil is arguably the best option for the keystone but his performance has wobbled in recent years and he’s also capable of playing other spots. At third, Mark Vientos just had a breakout season at the plate but with poor defense and it’s been suggested the club could look to move him to first base as a replacement for free agent Pete Alonso.

The Mets could take that approach with an existing third baseman like Alex Bregman, as he is a better hitter than Adames and already established at the position. But Adames is a couple of years younger and could secure a lesser contract just based on his track record. MLBTR recently projected Bregman for $182MM over seven years and Adames for $160MM over six seasons in our annual Top 50 Free Agents post.

For Adames, having a club like the Mets at the table can only help. They are one of the top spending clubs in the league but there would be no point in them getting involved if Adames was firmly committed to staying at short, so it’s sensible for him to express openness to moving. Clubs like the Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Royals could also be classified as having greater needs at infield positions other than shortstop, so getting them to the table as well could further expand his market.

One of the more straightforward fits would be the Giants, with president of baseball operations Buster Posey frankly admitting yesterday that the club is on the lookout for shortstops. However, Adames has received a qualifying offer from the Brewers that he’s sure to reject, thus tying him to the associated penalties.

Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might try to avoid signing players that rejected qualifying offers so early in his tenure. The Giants just had a hamstrung draft a few months ago, as they gave up their second- and third-round picks to sign Blake Snell and Matt Chapman last offseason, both of whom had rejected qualifying offers. The Giants went on to pay the competitive balance tax in 2024, meaning that signing any QO’d players this time around would result in forfeiting their second- and fifth-best picks of the upcoming draft as well as $1MM of international bonus space.

The Giants are one of the most sensible on-paper fits for Adames as a club with a strong record of spending and a clear need at shortstop. If they were to pivot to the trade market or signing a player without a qualifying offer like Ha-Seong Kim, that would only further the importance of Adames staying open to other positions.

As for a return to Milwaukee, that never seemed especially likely since the Brewers almost never give out massive contracts like the one Adames will surely require. Looking at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the Christian Yelich extension is the only time the club has surpassed $105MM on any deal. As if precedent wasn’t enough, owner Mark Attanasio basically confirmed it recently. “He’s going to get an enormous free-agent contract and I’m very happy for him and his family, and we’ll give it our best shot,” Attanasio said of Adames. “But there’s a lot deeper pockets out there. That’s just the reality.”

Adames recently reflected on those comments, per another column from Sammon and Woo. He seemingly left the door open for a hometown discount, though perhaps only slightly. “I’m willing to stay here for less money, let’s say, but I just want to be fair for what I deserve in my career and whatever I’ve done,” Adames said. “We just have to wait and see where we’re at. You never know what’s going to happen and you never know who is going to be willing to make that commitment with me for a long time.”

MLB Mailbag: Yankees, Soto, Cole, Santander, Dodgers, Mets

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With MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list hitting your screens Monday evening, the MLB Mailbag is back.  This week's mailbag gets into Plan B for the Yankees if they lose Juan Soto, the Gerrit Cole contract situation, the Reds and Nick Martinez, the Cubs' response to Cody Bellinger staying, the Dodgers' approach to free agent pitching, fits for Anthony Santander, the Mets' payroll, and much more.

Mike asks:

So two of the MLBTR writers pick Soto to leave the Yankees and sign with the Mets. Certainly could happen. What struck me though is I didn't see the writers compensating that loss with heavier spending on other free agents by the Yankees. Seems unlikely. Let's assume Soto leaves. What would be a credible backup plan to cover 1B, an open OF spot and either 3B or 2B as Chisholm could cover one or the other?

A different Mike asks:

What do you think the Yankees pivot to when the Dodgers sign Soto?

Frankly, I find Soto slightly more likely to sign with the Mets than the Yankees, but I picked the Yankees because I had nitpicks about most of the major alternate free agents I could put on the Yankees to compensate.  Ah, the annual struggle of making 50 team picks that all make sense.  Beyond the Yankees and Mets, I certainly won't rule out the Dodgers or "the field" on Soto.  But the question of the Yankees' Plan B came up often in our free agent deliberations.

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Alex Bregman Has Bone Chip Removed From Elbow

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Agent Scott Boras spoke to the media at the general managers meetings in San Antonio today. He discussed the situations with many of his clients, noting that infielder Alex Bregman underwent a procedure to remove a bone chip from his right elbow. Per Boras, Bregman will resume swinging in a few weeks and should be fine for spring training. Chandler Rome of The Athletic was among those to relay the news on X.

The news doesn’t come out of nowhere, as Bregman dealt with some elbow soreness in August. He didn’t go on the injured list but did miss about a week and then served as the designated hitter for a few games once he returned to the lineup. He was back at third base at the end of August and through September but clearly the issue lingered enough that it needed offseason attention.

Assuming the timeline provided by Boras is accurate, it shouldn’t be a big deal for Bregman, as he will seemingly have plenty of opportunity to heal up. But it will nonetheless be something for clubs to monitor before making a sizable investment in Bregman.

He recently ranked third on MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents with a prediction that he could secure a guarantee of $182MM over a seven-year deal. As clubs like the Astros, Mariners, Blue Jays, Mets, Yankees, Tigers and others consider forking over that kind of cash, any kind of health situation will be something to watch closely. The free agent market doesn’t really have another viable everyday third baseman but the trade market could feature guys like Nolan Arenado or Eugenio Suárez.

Durability has generally been a strong suit in Bregman’s career. He missed a small amount of time in 2020 due to a right hamstring discomfort then in 2021 due to a left quad strain, but he appeared in at least 155 games from 2017 to 2019, then again in 2022 and 2023 before getting into 145 this past season. He’s hit .272/.366/.483 in his career with above-average defense at third base, allowing him to produce 39.7 wins above replacement so far, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Padres Announce Contract Extension With Manager Mike Shildt

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November 6: The Padres made it official today, announcing that they have agreed to a two-year extension with Shildt to keep him through 2027.

November 5: The Padres are finalizing an extension with manager Mike Shildt that’ll keep him in San Diego through 2027, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller told reporters last month that the team would look to work out a new deal with their skipper, who signed a two-year contract when he was hired over the 2023-24 offseason.

San Diego tasked Shildt with stabilizing the clubhouse after Bob Melvin’s departure. Tension between Melvin and Preller reportedly played a role in the former’s decision to leave the Padres and take the managerial role in San Francisco. The Padres considered a few external candidates but opted to turn the reins to Shildt, who had been in the player development department for the preceding two seasons.

That came on a relatively short two-year commitment. Shildt oversaw an excellent rebound year after the Friars had underperformed during Melvin’s final season. The Padres went 93-69 to secure the top Wild Card spot in the National League. They won 11 more games than they had in ’23 despite trading Juan Soto and losing Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez in free agency.

It’s certainly not all a testament to the managerial change. The front office hit on the Soto return that landed Michael King and indirectly enabled them to acquire Dylan Cease. The Jurickson Profar signing was probably the best value pickup of the offseason. Jackson Merrill had a fantastic rookie year. The Padres also simply played better in one-run and extra-inning contests after faring terribly in those regards during the previous season.

All that said, it’s not hard to see why the Padres are making a longer commitment to Shildt after that season. San Diego played fantastic ball down the stretch and proved the Dodgers’ biggest challenge on their championship run. The Padres pushed L.A. to the brink of elimination in the Division Series after sweeping the Braves in the Wild Card round. Their season ended on a sour note, as Dodger pitching shut them out in consecutive games to win the series, but that was by far the closest anyone came to threatening Los Angeles. Seeing the Dodgers fairly easily knock off the Mets and Yankees to win the World Series hammers home how close the Padres were to fielding a championship-caliber roster in their own right.

Before landing in San Diego, Shildt spent three-plus seasons managing the Cardinals. He led St. Louis to a pair of 90-win campaigns and three straight playoff appearances between 2019-21. The Cards surprisingly moved on from him after the ’21 season, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak citing philosophical differences between Shildt and the front office. The 56-year-old has been fortunate to work with talented rosters, but his teams have posted excellent results at both stops. Shildt carries a career 345-268 managerial record, resulting in a .563 win percentage that translates to a roughly 91-win pace over a full season.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Giants, Logan Porter Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Giants and catcher Logan Porter have agreed to a minor league deal with an invite to major league spring training, according to Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 on X. The backstop is represented by Gaeta Sports Management.

Porter, 29, was briefly in the Giants’ organization last year. He started 2024 in the Royals organization on a minor league pact but was flipped to the Giants in June for cash considerations. After about a month of struggles, he opted out of that deal. He then briefly landed a spot on the Mets’ 40-man roster but was kept on optional assignment and later outrighted.

He has a sliver of major league experience, hitting .194/.324/.323 in 38 plate appearances for the Royals in 2023. He has produced some interesting minor league numbers, though not consistently. He split 2022 between Double-A and Triple-A, producing a robust combined slash line of .301/.442/.476, leading to a 145 wRC+. In 2023, despite getting called up to the majors, his minor league performance fell. He hit .232/.339/.377 in Triple-A for an 83 wRC+.

His 2024 started out strong, as he had a .319/.428/.575 batting line and 159 wRC+ through his first 138 Triple-A plate appearances. But his bat wilted as soon as he was traded away from the Royals, as he slashed .224/.318/.351 the rest of the way for a 74 wRC+ between the Triple-A affiliates of the Giants and Mets. Baseball Prospectus gives him solid grades for his minor league defense, so he can be a solid contributor at the times when the bat is producing.

The Giants have Patrick Bailey as their primary catcher but the backup spot is more open. They signed Tom Murphy to a two-year deal going into 2024 but a left knee sprain limited him to just 13 games this year. His current status is unclear but he told Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle in August that he was still in pain and seemed uncertain about the path ahead. Blake Sabol is also on the 40-man roster but he was mostly kept in the minors this year despite Murphy’s injury, so perhaps the club views him more as a depth piece.

Perhaps there’s a path there for Porter to get back to the big leagues, depending on how the offseason progresses for the Giants. If he makes it onto the roster, Porter has a full slate of options and just a handful of service days, meaning he can be cheaply retained well into the future.

The Opener: GM Meetings, Shildt, Trade Market

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As the offseason continues to get underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. GM Meetings continue:

The annual GM Meetings are currently underway in San Antonio, Texas, with top decision-makers around the baseball world having gathered to open negotiations as hot stove season gets underway. While these meetings are far less active than the Winter Meetings in December, they nonetheless offer important clues as to the direction each franchise plans to move in for the coming offseason. Today, in particular, figures to be significant as Chandler Rome of The Athletic noted yesterday that agent Scott Boras is set to make his annual address to reporters regarding the state of the game and the coming offseason. One of the most powerful agents in the sport, Boras represents a number of the winter’s top free agents including Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, and Blake Snell.

2. Padres, Shildt nearing deal:

It was reported yesterday evening that the Padres are finalizing an extension for manager Mike Shildt. The possibility of San Diego looking to lock up their manager longer-term has been on the table for some time now, but the sides have clearly made progress on the deal and it could be officially announced in the near future. Shildt spent four years at the helm of the Cardinals and won NL Manager of the Year in 2019. 2024 was his first season with the Padres after Bob Melvin departed to manage in San Francisco, and it hardly could have gone better for the club as he led San Diego to a 93-69 record and a win in the NL Wild Card series over the Braves, though they eventually fell in five games to the Dodgers during the NLDS.

3. Big names coming off the trade market?

As fans around the league begin speculating about their team’s plans for the coming offseason, many focus on the possibility of finding a star on the trade market rather than paying the hefty prices to be seen in free agency. Such a maneuver might be difficult to pull off this winter, however, as even teams that weren’t competitive in 2024 seem reluctant to part ways with their stars. Yesterday saw both the Athletics and Blue Jays throw cold water on the possibility of trading a frequently speculated upon star (Brent Rooker and Bo Bichette, respectively). Those comments from Toronto also notably come after frequent indications in recent months that the club has no interest in dealing away first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. With so many offensive talents thought to be possible trade candidates now seemingly off the board, will other surprise hitters reach the trade market or will teams have to settle for improving on offense through free agency?

Cubs Expected To Pursue Help Near Top Of Rotation, Back Of Bullpen

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The Cubs are expected to be aggressive in their search for upgrades near the top of the rotation and in their late-inning relief corps, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Chicago was already expected to be in the market for catching upgrades this winter.

Improvements on the pitching staff have long stood as a fairly logical pursuit for the Chicago front office. The lineup was largely set even before Cody Bellinger passed on his opt-out opportunity. The Cubs have Michael Busch at first base, Nico Hoerner at second, Dansby Swanson at short and Isaac Paredes at the hot corner. The outfield/DH mix contains Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and now Bellinger. Each of Happ, Suzuki and Swanson have no-trade provisions.

Hoerner was speculated by many — MLBTR included — to be a possible trade candidate as a result of this inflexibility on the trade front, but his recent forearm surgery makes a deal quite unlikely. The Cubs aren’t likely to add a long-term replacement.  Mooney suggests that top prospect Matt Shaw or an in-house alternative like James Triantos could bridge that gap. Hoyer told Mooney and others at the ongoing GM Meetings that there’s no timeline for Hoerner’s return just yet, but the team expects a “full recovery.” On paper, there’s a path to moving Bellinger and the remaining two years on his contract, but to this point there’s been no indication the Cubs will consider that this winter.

As such, an upgrade behind the plate seems like the clearest path to bolstering the lineup, while an upgrade on the pitching side of things is the most obvious path to improving the club overall. As it stands, the Cubs could be as much as $50MM shy of their 2024 payroll levels — a number that could push closer to $60MM if they opt to further subtract some arbitration-eligible players via non-tender or trade. Trey Wingenter, Julian Merryweather, Adbert Alzolay, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal are among the options who fit that billing after several arb-eligible Cubs were already cut loose yesterday.

That leaves the Cubs with significant financial firepower at their disposal, assuming ownership authorizes a payroll at least in line with last year’s rough $235MM mark (per RosterResource). President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer (or perhaps owner Tom Ricketts) has typically preferred not to invest money in lengthy deals for relievers. The last multi-year deal for any reliever from the Cubs was in 2019 when they signed Craig Kimbrel to a three-year, $43MM pact. If that trend holds up, it’ll only point all the more significantly toward a potential splash in the deep end of the free agent pool for starting pitchers.

As it stands, the Cubs have Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and likely Javier Assad locked into starting spots. Candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and top prospect Cade Horton. All have minor league options remaining, and any of the bunch could end up a bullpen option. Brown and particularly Wesneski both got looks in relief last year. Assad has had success as a reliever in 2023.

The top end of the free-agent pool includes Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty. All four were predicted for nine-figure guarantees on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent rankings. Of the four, both Burnes and Fried received and will reject a qualifying offer. Ricketts confirmed in October that the Cubs narrowly crossed the luxury tax threshold in 2024, meaning they’d need to surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft as well as $1MM of space from their 2025 international bonus pool in order to sign Burnes, Fried, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino or any of the free agents who received a qualifying offer. (It’d have been “only” their second-highest pick and $500K of pool space had they successfully dipped under the line.) The qualifying offer historically hasn’t been a dealbreaker for the Hoyer-led Cubs. They signed Swanson after he rejected the Braves’ QO in the 2022-23 offseason.

And, to be clear, the mere fact that the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever under Hoyer doesn’t mean that they won’t consider doing so this winter. Prior to last offseason, the Cubs had typically spent $5MM or less on free-agent relief pitchers. They nearly doubled that sum when signing Hector Neris. The deal didn’t work out, of course, but Hoyer has already begun to deviate a bit from the bargain-bin approach to building out a bullpen. That’s a far cry from declaring they’re in in top relievers like Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez and others, but a step up in their aggression toward pursuing relief help shouldn’t be ruled out.

If the Cubs are indeed intent on sticking to the one-year bucket in free agency, there’s no shortage of older but still high-quality leverage options from which to choose. Each of Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen and old friend David Robertson is a free agent this winter. They’ll all pitch next year at 37 or older, making them likely one-year deal candidates. Any of the bunch could (and likely will) command an eight-figure salary, but the Cubs already came close to that level in signing Neris and could be further emboldened to pursue a solidified ninth-inning option after last year’s bullpen again proved shaky, tying for eighth in the majors with 26 blown saves.

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