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The Opener: Marlins, Angels, Top 50 Chat

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With the first position player and starting pitcher deals of this year’s free agency now in the books, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Marlins managerial search nearing conclusion?

After the White Sox recently hired Will Venable to take over the club’s managerial gig, that left just one club without a skipper set to helm the dugout in 2025: the Marlins, whose new hire will have their work cut out for them after the club decided against bringing back the entire 2024 coaching staff. Fans in Miami have been in suspense about the club’s next manager for quite some time, and there’s some reason to believe the search is coming to an end. Jon Morosi of MLB Network said yesterday that Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix told him that he was “nearing” a decision on the club’s new manager. Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough and Tigers bench coach George Lombard are among the rumored names not yet known to be out of the running.

2. Angels 40-man move incoming:

The Angels made their first free agent signing of the offseason yesterday when they agreed to a one-year deal with longtime Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks, 35 in December, is coming off the worst season of his career in 2024 but was once among the most effective starters in the league in terms of run prevention and put up solid mid-rotation results (114 ERA+) as recently as 2023. He’ll slot into a rotation that currently includes little certainty outside of veteran Tyler Anderson and young righty José Soriano. Hendricks joins trade acquisition Jorge Soler as the key pieces Anaheim has already added in a busy start to the offseason.

Before Hendricks’ deal with the Halos can become official, however, the club will need to make room for him on the 40-man roster. That will likely require the club to designate a player for assignment, but it’s possible the club could try to work out a trade to clear a spot on the 40-man as well.

3. MLBTR Top 50 Chat today:

Earlier this week, we here at MLBTR posted our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, complete with contract and team predictions. It’s our biggest post of the year, jam-packed with information and analysis. If you have any questions about the list and our predictions, you’re in luck, as Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald will be hosting a joint live chat at 9am CT today! You can click here to submit a question in advance, participate live when the chat begins, and read the transcript after it concludes.

Cards Moving Willson Contreras To First Base; Contreras Unlikely To Waive No-Trade Clause

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As he heads into the third season of his five-year, $87.5MM contract, Willson Contreras is headed for a position change. The Cardinals plan to move Contreras from catcher to first base next season, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters at the GM Meetings today that the move to a first base/designated hitter role was made with Contreras’ long-term health and longevity in mind, adding that he’s “unlikely” to catch much at all in 2025 (X link via Katie Woo of The Athletic).

Mozeliak added that Contreras was quite clear about his desire to remain in St. Louis even as the team embarks on something of a reset (via Woo). That makes it unlikely he’d be willing to waive his full no-trade clause this offseason. It’s a similar story with right-hander Sonny Gray, it seems. Mozeliak didn’t directly state as much, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Gray has also expressed a preference to remain with the Cardinals. Like Contreras, Gray has full no-trade protection.

The move to first base for Contreras opens the path for Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages to split time behind the plate. It’s perhaps possible that an injury to one or both players could result in Contreras suiting up and crouching behind home plate once again, but it seems the organization’s preference is a shift away from that role. It’s the latest in a winding saga with the Cardinals’ seeming distaste for Contreras’ defense — one that began just weeks into his first season with the club.

The Cardinals announced early in the 2023 season that Contreras would be moving off catcher for at least a few weeks. At the time, Mozeliak stressed that Contreras hadn’t caught his last game for the club but added that the team had grown accustomed to Yadier Molina’s glovework behind the dish, adding that “this is going to take a little time to get him to where we feel he understands the expectations of what this role is for us.” It was a stunning announcement less than two months into a five-year contract, and one that generated even more confusion when Contreras returned to catching just one week later.

With the contract now 40% complete, Contreras appears ticketed for a more permanent move off the position. The 32-year-old has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher, but the ongoing questions about the Cardinals’ satisfaction with his defense (or lack thereof) has at multiple points prompted questions about why the team signed him to a five-year deal in the first place. Those questions will only grow louder now. Statcast has generally given Contreras plus grades for his throwing and rated him as a solid blocker, though his framing skills have been panned. He’s lived up to his end of the deal at the plate, however, hitting a combined .263/.367/.468 in 853 plate appearances. A broken forearm and finger, among other smaller injuries, have limited his time on the field, but Contreras has generally been one of the Cardinals’ best hitters when healthy.

That’ll presumably continue as he moves into a new role on the field. Contreras’ position shift seems likely to close the door on a potential reunion with free agent Paul Goldschmidt, who’ll now look to rebound elsewhere after a disappointing finish to his St. Louis tenure. It’ll also finally give the 24-year-old Herrera a crack at the starting catcher role for which he’s appeared ready for several years.

Herrera was thought to be a potential heir to Molina behind the plate, but any such hopes were dashed when the Cards originally signed Contreras. He’s a .289/.365/.398 hitter in 325 major league plate appearances (117 wRC+) and carries a stout .281/.414/.453 slash in 176 Triple-A contests. Pages, 26, hit .238/.281/.376 in 218 big league plate appearances in 2024. The righty hitter did post solid offensive numbers as a 24-year-old in Double-A in 2023, but scouting reports on him have questioned his hit tool while characterizing him as a likelier platoon option or backup.

Turning to Gray, his apparent desire to remain in St. Louis makes him a less obvious trade candidate than he was entering the winter. The Cards were reported to be open to offers on Gray even before they publicly revealed their plan for a step-back to focus on player development. Gray’s no-trade clause and heavily backloaded contract were always significant roadblocks in a potential trade, but ones that potentially seemed surmountable. He was quite selective about his destination in free agency, preferring to be relatively close to his Nashville home. Still, there was some thought that a trade to a geographically close club might hold appeal.

Working out such a swap would’ve been complicated. Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract paid him just $10MM in year one. He’s owed $65MM over the course of the next two seasons. That’s a huge number for an acquiring club to take on, particularly if said club has luxury-tax concerns (e.g. the Braves). A team acquiring a contract is taxed on the remainder of the deal rather than the original AAV, meaning a new club would be on the hook for a $32.5MM luxury hit in acquiring Gray. Those hurdles are all rendered moot, however, if Gray prefers to remain in St. Louis and see how things play out in the short-term.

Mozeliak told reporters today that he spoke to all of his players with no-trade clauses. That means he’s at least broached the possibility with third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s not yet clear, however, whether Arenado is as convicted in his desire to remain on board through the team’s reset. Certainly, the lack of comments or concrete reporting on the matter doesn’t mean Arenado is requesting or even open to a trade, but the lack of information on him will fuel natural speculation. Arenado’s trade from Colorado to St. Louis, after all, was prompted by his frustration over the Rockies’ inability to field a competitive roster. Playing for a contending club was a priority for him — so much so that he passed on an opt-out opportunity in his contract to remain in St. Louis due in large part to their status as perennial contenders.

Arenado now has three years and $74MM remaining on his contract. The Rockies are on the hook for $5MM of that sum. He’s had two straight pedestrian seasons at the plate, batting .269/.320/.426 since 2023. That’s still slightly better than league-average production by measure of wRC+ but is a far cry from his MVP-caliber 2022 showing when he hit .293/.358/.553. Whether he can bounce back as he heads into his age-34 campaign is an open question, but Arenado remains an elite defender with rare durability. He’s missed 28 games over the past two seasons but has played in 94.6% of his teams’ games dating back to the 2015 season.

Giants, Sergio Alcantara Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Giants are in agreement with infielder Sergio Alcántara on a minor league deal, reports Francys Romero (X link). The Quality Control Sports client gets an invitation to big league camp.

Alcántara has appeared with four teams at the major league level. He hasn’t played in the big leagues since 2022. The switch-hitting infielder split the ’24 campaign between the Triple-A affiliates of the Pirates and Diamondbacks. His .271/.388/.416 slash is solid on the surface, though that was mostly concentrated in a hitter’s paradise in Reno. Alcántara has played the role of light-hitting utilityman in his MLB career. He’s a .209/.281/.343 hitter over 502 big league plate appearances.

While Alcántara doesn’t provide much at the plate, he has bounced around on the strength of his glove. He has more than 6000 innings of shortstop experience in the minors. Alcátara has upwards of 1000 professional frames at both second and third base. The Giants are likely to add a starting shortstop this winter to push Tyler Fitzgerald to second base. Most of San Francisco’s utility players are stretched at shortstop, so Alcántara is a sensible depth target who’ll likely open the season in Triple-A.

Mets, Rico Garcia Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mets are in agreement with free agent reliever Rico Garcia on a minor league contract, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (X link). The Gaeta Sports Management client gets an invite to big league Spring Training on a deal that would pay him a $900K base salary if he makes the big league roster.

Garcia is trying to work back to the big leagues after spending this year in Triple-A. The righty had a nice year for Washington’s top affiliate. Garcia saved 20 games and turned in a 3.94 ERA through 61 2/3 innings. He struck out a massive 34.1% of opposing hitters. That came with a fair number of free passes, as an 11.5% walk rate is perhaps the biggest reason he didn’t get an MLB look.

The 30-year-old Garcia has pitched in parts of four big league campaigns between five teams. He has struggled to a 7.32 earned run average over 35 2/3 innings. His most recent MLB action came with 10 appearances between the Athletics and Nationals in 2023. Garcia hasn’t carried over much bat-missing ability to the highest level. His 12.4% career strikeout rate is well below average.

New York has made a couple bullpen depth additions since the offseason began. They gave Dylan Covey a major league contract last week. The 40-man spot gives Covey a leg up on Garcia and whichever other relievers the Mets add as non-roster invitees, but there’s likely to be a fair amount of competition for middle relief roles in camp.

Giants, Blue Jays Showing Interest In Ha-Seong Kim

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Ha-Seong Kim is finding interest in free agency’s opening days. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that the Giants have identified him as an early target. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays are also showing interest as they evaluate infield possibilities.

While this is the first substantive tie between Kim and the Giants, that fit had been speculated long before he hit free agency. Giants skipper Bob Melvin managed the infielder for two seasons with the Padres. President of baseball operations Buster Posey has called shortstop a target area. Improving defensively seems like a particular priority, as landing a shortstop could allow San Francisco to slide Tyler Fitzgerald to second base.

Willy Adames is the top free agent shortstop. He could land a six- or seven-year contract. Kim seemed to be on track for four or five years as recently as a few months ago. A season-ending shoulder injury and postseason labrum surgery make it likelier he’ll take a short-term deal. The Padres opted not to issue a qualifying offer, which Kim would almost certainly have declined if he were healthy. San Diego president of baseball ops A.J. Preller has floated a nebulous timeline for the 29-year-old’s return, suggesting he could be out between May and July. Kim’s agent Scott Boras has indicated he could be available earlier in the season, potentially before the end of April.

Kim’s value is driven largely by his glove. He has proven to be a plus defender throughout the infield, at least when he’s at full strength. While some teams could be concerned about his arm in the immediate aftermath of a significant shoulder procedure, Kim had shown a sufficient arm before the surgery to play on the left side of the infield. He’s a roughly league average hitter, compensating for middling power with good contact skills and strong walk rates. Kim hit .233/.330/.370 with 11 homers and 22 stolen bases during his platform year.

He’s also a plus defender at second base, where the Jays would ostensibly target him. Nicholson-Smith reported last night that Toronto had also checked in on Gleyber Torres. Toronto has Bo Bichette returning at shortstop. Between second and third base, they have a handful of internal options who are light on MLB experience (e.g. Will Wagner, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Ernie Clement). Toronto also used Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sporadically at the hot corner.

MLBTR predicted Kim for a one-year pillow contract valued around $12MM. His camp could try to secure a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out after next season, though it’s not clear if teams are willing to take that risk coming off the injury. The Padres have expressed interest in bringing him back, while the Braves and Mariners are speculative possibilities to pursue middle infield help.

Rays Among Teams To Have Reached Out To Soto

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The Rays are among the teams that have reached out to Juan Soto’s camp since the opening of free agency last week, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman lists a much less surprising additional six teams that have shown interest: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox.

The mere mention of the Rays as a possible Soto suitor is going to be met with plenty of skepticism. It’d be a shock if they made a legitimate push for the market’s top free agent. The Rays have tried to land an elite free agent at least once before, as they reportedly made an offer in the $150MM range to Freddie Freeman before he signed with the Dodgers. That wasn’t too far off the price Freeman ultimately landed, but any offers to Soto would be in a different stratosphere. He should handily top $500MM and could secure a contract between $600MM and $700MM.

While it’s fair to assume the Rays themselves aren’t optimistic about their chances, this is illustrative that they have some money to at least dabble in the middle of free agency. The Rays opened this past season with a payroll around $98MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve got a little less than $40MM in guaranteed commitments for next year (assuming Wander Franco remains on the restricted list and is not paid). Their arbitration class is projected around $25MM, though they could knock that to the $15MM range with a few non-tenders. Trades of Brandon Lowe or Yandy Díaz would subtract another $10.5MM or $10MM, respectively.

None of that is to say they should be perceived as a realistic threat to the big-market teams on Soto. They’ll probably be more active in free agency than many fans might expect given their general spending habits, though. Another mid-tier strike akin to the $40MM Zach Eflin deal from two offseasons ago could be on the table. Any free agent pursuits are complicated by their uncertain stadium situation after Tropicana Field was severely damaged by Hurricane Milton.

The other teams known to have some interest in Soto are all expected. The Yankees and Mets are widely perceived as the favorites. The Dodgers are at least tied to virtually every free agent of note. The news that Mookie Betts is likely moving back to the middle infield is going to fuel speculation about L.A. making a run at Soto. Giants baseball operations president Buster Posey has spoken about wanting to land a star. The Blue Jays were in the running for Shohei Ohtani last winter. The Red Sox have indicated they could be more active in free agency than they’ve been over the past few winters, although a splash in the rotation market seems much likelier than them landing Soto.

The New York Post reported last week that 11 teams had been in contact with Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation on the first day of the offseason. That leaves at least four unknown clubs, though Heyman casts some doubt on the Nationals and Cubs as possibilities. Heyman suggests that Washington is unlikely to spend at the level necessary to bring Soto back. He writes that Chicago’s offseason plans are more geared towards pitching at the moment.

Soto’s free agency should carry for multiple weeks. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this afternoon that the four-time All-Star plans to have an in-person meeting with the ownership group of each team making a serious pursuit.

Astros Have Internally Discussed Ryan Pressly Trade

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The Astros have had internal conversations about the possibility of trading Ryan Pressly, reports Chandler Rome of the Athletic. While that’d be a logical way to clear payroll space, a deal is complicated by the reliever’s full no-trade rights.

Pressly has a decade of MLB service and has spent five-plus seasons in Houston. Players who meet that criteria have full no-trade protection under the collective bargaining agreement. Pressly could quickly halt trade consideration if he has no desire to leave. (Rome notes that the pitcher’s wife Kat is a Houston native.)

If Pressly is amenable to moving, that would go a long way to opening spending room for the team. The Astros are trying to re-sign Alex Bregman. They could look for help at first base and in the outfield. RosterResource already projects next season’s luxury tax number around $234MM. That’s $7MM shy of the lowest threshold. They’d need to go well into tax territory to retain Bregman. Even if they let the star third baseman walk, they’re likely to push above the tax line for what’d be a second straight year. They’d be subject to higher penalties for exceeding the threshold in back-to-back seasons.

General manager Dana Brown admitted last month that the situation could require the Astros to be “creative” with their payroll. The most straightforward solution — subject to the no-trade complications — is a Pressly deal. The righty triggered a $14MM vesting option for his age-36 season. That’s a pricey sum for a pitcher who lost his spot in the ninth inning when the Astros signed Josh Hader last winter. Pressly featured prominently on MLBTR’s list of the top offseason trade candidates as a result.

While the Astros may not be keen on a $14MM salary, another team could assume that to plug Pressly into the ninth inning. He closed in Houston between 2020-23, locking down 30+ saves in each of the latter two seasons. Pressly hasn’t posted a season with an ERA above 4.00 during his six-plus years with the Astros, though his results have trended slightly downward over the last two seasons.

After turning in consecutive sub-3.00 showings in 2021-22, Pressly has allowed an ERA around 3.50 for the past couple years. He allowed 3.49 earned runs per nine over 56 2/3 innings this past season. His 23.3% strikeout percentage and 48.8% grounder rate, while solid, were each below typical levels. Pressly’s strikeout and whiff rates have dropped in consecutive years. His 93.8 MPH average fastball velocity was down a tick compared to last season.

Pressly appears to be on a slight decline, though he remains a quality late-game arm. A $14MM salary is about the range he’d expect as a free agent. The Orioles committed $13MM to Craig Kimbrel last winter, while the Pirates signed Aroldis Chapman for $10.5MM. The Rangers added David Robertson on a deferred $11.5MM deal. Pressly falls into that bucket of one-time star closers who are still effective but not as dominant as they were at their peak. The Astros could probably find a taker for the majority or all of the money, but teams aren’t going to part with significant prospect capital to acquire what is essentially a market value contract.

Hader will be back in the ninth inning. Bryan Abreu remains an excellent setup option. A Pressly trade would put more pressure on the likes of Tayler Scott and potentially Bryan King to prove themselves capable of pitching meaningful innings.

Mookie Betts Likely Moving Back To Infield

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Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes spoke to members of the media at the general manager meetings, including Joel Sherman of The New York Post (X link) and Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link). Gomes relayed that the Dodgers are probably going to have Mookie Betts move back to the infield, either at shortstop or second base.

In the first half of 2024, Betts playing the infield was an incredible storyline, as he moved to the dirt after years of being established as a right fielder. He had been a second baseman as a prospect with the Red Sox but had moved to the grass in deference to Dustin Pedroia. He eventually won multiple Gold Gloves and other fielding awards for his work in right field but amazingly started switching back more recently.

The Dodgers gave Betts brief looks at second base in each season from 2020 to 2022 but then ramped it up, putting him there for 485 innings in 2023. They also started dabbling with Betts as a shortstop that year, with 98 innings at that spot.

The club was evidently pleased with the experiment, as manager Dave Roberts announced in December that Betts would be the club’s primary second baseman in 2024, with Gavin Lux planned as the regular shortstop. But when Lux struggled with his throws during spring training, the Dodgers decided to flip them.

That suddenly left Betts looking to essentially learn one of the most demanding positions on the fly, but it seemed to be working well enough for a time. He got a -4 grade from Outs Above Average at shortstop this year but +3 Defensive Runs Saved. He did that while producing a massive .304/.405/.488 batting line and 153 wRC+ through the middle of June, seemingly putting himself in the Most Valuable Player conversation.

Unfortunately, it was at that time that he suffered a hand fracture after being hit by a pitch and then missed about two months. While he was on the shelf, the Dodgers decided that he would be moved back to his familiar right field position once he healed up.

Now it seems that Betts will get another shot on the infield, which will immediately lead to speculation about the club’s offseason pursuits. The top free agent this winter is corner outfielder Juan Soto, though he is not the only intriguing guy in that category. The Dodgers could consider bringing back Teoscar Hernández or pursuing guys like Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill or Michael Conforto.

The infield market, meanwhile, isn’t as deep. Gleyber Torres is arguably the top option at second base despite a mediocre season. He has generally hit well in his career but was barely league average in 2024. Since he’s not considered a strong defender, that dip at the plate was concerning. At shortstop, there is a strong option in Willy Adames, who has interested the Dodgers before. But apart from him, the top option is Ha-Seong Kim, who might miss the first half of the upcoming season due to shoulder surgery.

Given the disparity between those markets, having Betts on the infield perhaps gives the Dodgers the best opportunity to take advantage of the offseason conditions. Depending on how things play out, it could also give them some trading options. Between Betts, Lux, Tommy Edman, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor, they could perhaps make someone in that group available. On the other hand, Edman and Taylor are super utility guys who can also play the outfield, meaning they could be valuable in providing support on the grass.

Without Betts, the outfield mix consists of Andy Pages, Edman, Taylor and James Outman. Catching prospect Dalton Rushing has started getting some outfield reps since he’s fairly blocked behind the plate with the recent Will Smith extension, as well as the presence of fellow catching prospects Diego Cartaya and Hunter Feduccia.

Perhaps this entire roster picture will change as the offseason develops and the Dodgers navigate their options in the coming months. They could add an outfielder or perhaps an infielder, then pivot Betts back to the outfield. The flexibility gives the Dodgers plenty of options for how to proceed and makes for a fascinating career arc for Betts.

Guardians Re-Sign Austin Hedges To One-Year Deal

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The Guardians announced that they have re-signed catcher Austin Hedges to a one-year deal. The Boras Corporation client gets the same $4MM salary that he had last year.

Hedges, 32, has carved out a decade-long career in a unique way as he’s one of the worst performers at the plate but one of the best behind it. In 2,359 career plate appearances, Hedges has hit .186/.243/.315. That production translates to a wRC+ of 50, meaning he’s been 50% worse than league average as a hitter in his career.

But he has also produced 91 Defensive Runs Saved over the past decade, the top mark of any backstop in the league for that time frame. Roberto Pérez and Buster Posey are the next two names on that list, though Posey retired years ago and Pérez hasn’t contributed in a while due to injuries. No other catcher has even 50 DRS in that time. For that same frame, Hedges is second to only Yasmani Grandal in terms of the FanGraphs framing metric. Outlets like Statcast and Baseball Prospectus also give him glowing grades for his glovework.

Teams have generally tolerated the poor offense in order to get at that strong work behind the plate. He has maybe been pushing the limits of their patience, as his offense has declined even relative to his own low standards recently. He hit .184/.234/.227 last year for a wRC+ of 23 and then .152/.203/.220 for a wRC+ of 20 this year. The latter line was with the Guardians after they signed him to a one-year, $4MM deal. Since they are bringing him back, it seems they have no buyer’s remorse and are happy to sign up for another year of poor hitting but strong work otherwise.

Hedges got essentially half as much playing time as Bo Naylor in 2024, getting 146 plate appearances over 66 games while Naylor got 389 trips to the plate in 123 games. Presumably, a similar timeshare will be the plan for 2025. Naylor also had strong defensive grades this year, although with a better performance with the bat.

The Guardians put together a successful campaign with this duo behind the plate this year, winning the American League Central and progressing as far as the American League Championship Series. The rotation was a bit of a struggle but much of the club’s success was due to having the best bullpen in the league.

Cleveland relievers had a 2.57 ERA in 2024, easily the best in the majors with only four clubs within a run of that. The Brewers were second at 3.11, then Atlanta at 3.32, the Dodgers at 3.53 and Tigers at 3.55. The pitchers are obviously a big part of that but having capable receivers undoubtedly helps.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Guardians and Hedges had agreed to a one-year deal. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported the $4MM salary.

Spenser Watkins Signs With CPBL’s TSG Hawks

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Right-hander Spenser Watkins has signed a one-year deal with the TSG Hawks of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today on X. The righty is a client of Gaeta Sports Management.

Watkins, 32, has appeared in 40 major league games, suiting up for the Orioles and Athletics over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He tossed 164 1/3 innings over those appearances, allowing 5.97 earned runs per nine. He struck out 13.9% of batters faced, walked 6.9% of opponents and got grounders on 38.4% of balls in play.

He signed a minor league deal with the Nationals going into 2024 but never got the call to the big leagues. He tossed 118 1/3 Triple-A innings on the year with a 4.56 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 45.8% ground ball rate.

If he had stayed in North America, he likely would have been looking at another minor league deal and more riding the bus while hoping to get the big league call. By heading to join the Hawks, he’ll get to explore new horizons while also likely collecting a larger paycheck than he would on the farm.

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