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Phils Unlikely To Pursue Aramis Ramirez

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So, who’s to fill the Phillies’ glaring vacancy at the hot corner?  According to this report by Randy Miller, it won’t be possible free agent Aramis Ramirez.  If you scroll down a bit, Miller mentions that Ramirez "won’t be pursued."  It’s not a direct quote from Pat Gillick, though you get the impression Miller spoke to Gillick to write the article.  All the quotes from Gillick tipped me off on this.  (Link found via Beerleaguer.)

The free agent market is barren, although Rich Aurilia might work.  If Gillick wants to make a deal, he could go after Joe Crede, Mike Lowell, Morgan Ensberg, or Adrian Beltre.

 

2007 Philadelphia Phillies

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People seem to be enjoying these 2007 outlooks I’ve been doing by team, so I’ll keep ’em coming.  Check out the new 2007 Team Outlooks link to see all of the past ones. 

Here are the current contract obligations for the Phillies.  I should also add that I utilized the terrific Beerleaguer Phillies Blog as a resource to learn some details about the team’s plans.

C – Carlos Ruiz – $0.33MM
C – Chris Coste – $0.33MM
1B – Ryan Howard – $0.355MM
2B – Chase Utley – $0.5MM
SS – Jimmy Rollins – $7MM
3B –
1B/OF – Jeff Conine – $2MM mutual option
IF – Abraham Nunez – $2.1MM
LF – Pat Burrell – $13MM
CF – Aaron Rowand – $3.25MM player or $5MM club option
RF – Shane Victorino – $0.33MM

SP – Brett Myers – $3.3MM
SP – Cole Hamels – $0.33MM
SP – Jamie Moyer – $6MM
SP – Jon Lieber – $7.5MM
SP –

RP – Tom Gordon – $7MM
RP – Ryan Madson – $0.4MM
RP – Geoff Geary – $0.35MM
RP – Fabio Castro – $0.327MM
RP – Clay Condrey – $0.33MM
RP – Matt Smith – $0.33MM
RP – Eude Brito – $0.33MM

Current obligations, once raises come in, look to be a touch over $60MM.  The Phils began last season with an $88MM payroll, so there should be money to spend this winter.

Mike Lieberthal’s finally off the books, and it does not seem like the Phils will bring him back in a part-time role.  Pat Gillick hasn’t fully committed to it, but he is open to the idea of going with the low-cost Ruiz/Coste tandem.  Ruiz will be 28 next season, and he hit a robust .307/.389/.505 at Triple A this year.  He’s gotten only 59 big league ABs to prove himself this year.  Coste is a minor league lifer who bombed in a Triple A stint this year but had a great July and August for the Phillies.

The Phils have a great infield core, but have lacked a league average third baseman since David Bell’s 2004.  They’ll probably look to the free agent market for their next 3B.  Options include Pedro Feliz, Aubrey Huff, Joe Randa, Nomar Garciaparra, Shea Hillenbrand, and perhaps Aramis Ramirez.  Not all of those guys can post an .820 OPS (league average) as well as handle third base regularly.  Gillick will just have to do the best he can; I can see him ending up with Hillenbrand.  If Ramirez hits the market, it will be tough to outbid the Angels and Dodgers.  The longshot solution: trade for Alex Rodriguez.

Pat the Bat has an untradeable contract and a no-trade clause, so the Phillies will have to be happy with Burrell in left.  Maybe Gillick can get creative and make something work, but the odds are against it.  Though Burrell’s 2006 may seem disappointing, it’s been very similar to his ’05.  He’s still hitting better than the average NL LF.

Some Phils fans envision Victorino in center and Rowand moving to right, but the above arrangement seems most likely.  Gillick will have to choose between using Victorino as a subpar offensive RF or a very good fourth outfielder.  In a perfect world, he’d sign a better RF and choose the latter option.  The market does contain some useful right fielders like Jose Guillen or Gary Sheffield.  This could be a creative way to compensate for the weak 3B market.

Pitching staff: the current version of Jon Lieber isn’t a great way to spend $7.5MM, but it’s been an inflated pitching market for years.  You could do worse for your fourth starter.  A front two of Myers and Hamels is impressive.  When he traded for Moyer, Gillick worked out a mutual option for 2007 with him.  I guessed around $6MM.  Right now it’s just a possibility that Moyer returns.  Given the short-term commitment and Moyer’s success, the Phils really need him to stay.

If Moyer stays, the Phillies can get by trying Brito, Gavin Floyd, or a retread in the fifth starter slot.  Carlos Silva’s name has also been mentioned.  If Moyer leaves, they need to hit the market and spend some money.  The market offers options aplenty, depending on what Gillick wants to spend.  Big names, medium names, former Phillies, it’s all there.  The club could opt to retain Randy Wolf, but I don’t see it.   

The bullpen looks fine to me.  Gordon, the emergence of Geary, the re-establishment of Madson – they should be OK.  Maybe one low-level signing.

   

Phillies Acquire Jamie Moyer

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Found via RotoWorld, FSN West is reporting that the Phillies have traded for 43 year-old southpaw Jamie Moyer.

In 25 starts this year, Moyer’s been just about league average.  He makes about $6.5MM this year and has been a Mariner since 1996.  Last year, Moyer used his no-trade rights to block trades to Houston and Atlanta at the trading deadline.

The changeup artist has remained effective into his early 40s.  Here and there, he’s been stricken by home run problems.  He’s given up a lot this year while playing half his games in a ballpark that’s neutral for home runs.  Safeco does deflate right-handed homers by 12%, though, and Moyer is a southpaw.  Citizens Bank Park inflates home runs by 21% overall, 20% for righthanders.

The Phillies are fourth in the wild card standings, 2.5 games behind the Reds.

Waiver Trade Candidate: Randy Wolf

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Phillies’ southpaw starter Randy Wolf makes $9MM this year in the last of a four-year deal.  This makes him an ideal candidate for a waiver trade before August 31st.

Wolf turns 30 this month.  He made his first start since June 12, 2005 last Sunday due to Tommy John surgery.  His return was also delayed a bit because of a broken hand bone from a line drive.  As you would expect with a recent Tommy John guy, Wolf’s control was lacking in his ’06 debut.  He probably won’t get his walks down to below 3 per nine innings until 2007.  For what it’s worth, Wolf says his arm feels "incredible" now.  His velocity still hasn’t fully returned despite 25 rehab innings.

Still, like Kip Wells, Wolf could be a helpful addition as a fifth starter for a contender.  His next few starts (against the Mets and Braves) will be crucial in building up some trade value.  Teams like the Red Sox, A’s, Braves, and Reds could have interest in Wolf assuming they are still in contention in a few weeks.

Lieber Rocked In Philly

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In case you forgot, there is an actual baseball game going on today.  Jon Lieber has been taken out of today’s game after just four and two-thirds innings, but not because of an impending deal.  He was yanked because the Marlins destroyed him with eleven hits and nine earned runs.  Looks like Lieber’s staying put.

At this point, if David Dellucci or Pat Burrell is pulled from the game, it may just be to rest them because it’s become a blowout.  With Burrell, I think there’s little sense of urgency because his contract would probably pass through waivers.

UPDATE: My knowledgable colleague Matthew Pouliot of RotoWorld reminds me that Burrell has a no-trade clause, so he has the option of rejecting any waiver claim made on him.  Todd Zolecki of the Philadelphia Inquirer recently discussed this very topic in regards to Burrell and Mike Lieberthal.

Reds Acquire Lohse, Cormier

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Wayne Krivsky did some tinkering this morning, picking up Kyle Lohse and Rheal Cormier in separate trades.

Lohse, 27, was demoted on May 17th.  After four solid efforts in Rochester, he was recalled and used in middle relief.  Maybe, just maybe, he can get by as a fifth starter in the NL. 

The aggregate line of all the hitters Lohse has faced this year is .269/.334/.426 (.760 OPS).  In comparison, Bronson Arroyo’s batters faced have managed an aggregate .756 OPS and Aaron Harang’s competition is at .754.  So it’s not like the NL Central is that much easier than the AL Central based on quality of batters faced.

Cormier has posted a 1.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season in 34 innings for the Phils.  I’m surprised Krivsky didn’t give up Homer Bailey to get him.  One note about Cormier is that he has not been used in high leverage situations this year.  Baseball Prospectus ranks him fifth in leverage on his own team.  Among pitchers who haven’t started or closed this year, Scott Linebrink leads in leverage.  He’s followed by Scot Shields, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Wise, Duaner Sanchez, and Roberto Hernandez. 

Abreu Traded To Yankees

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As many are aware at this point, Bobby Abreu has been pulled from Philadelphia’s lineup today against Anibal Sanchez in favor of Shane Victorino.  It appears that a trade is imminent.

UPDATE: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports the deal is tenatively done – Abreu and Lidle to the Yankees.  Jayson Stark is now indicating that 27 year-old lefty reliever Matt Smith may be part of the deal along with C.J. Henry.  Smith has a 2.08 ERA in 26 Triple A innings this season.

Bobby Abreu Update

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About 29 hours remain for GMs to get their deals done.  Plenty of new stuff popped up this morning, as many sportswriters were saving good stuff for the Sunday edition.

Let’s start off with the Bobby Abreu saga. Late last night, we went to bed with Jayson Stark’s update as the last word.  Seemed like talks between the Yankees and Phillies were in advanced stages, and that it would be Abreu, Cory Lidle, and all their salary for a couple of lower-grade prospects. 

The latest from Ken Rosenthal is that the Red Sox are getting into the game, trying to mess with the Yankees’ stuff. 

Indeed, Abreu’s agent has indicated that he will accept a trade to the Red Sox, Yankees, or Mets.  A deal to these teams would not require Abreu’s 2008 option picked up.  Sam Borden’s article goes back to Jon Lieber and Scott Proctor as part of this deal.  I think I read somewhere that the Phillies could consider Proctor as a starter next year.

Stark: Yanks Close To Abreu Trade

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No, those weren’t Jayson Stark’s exact words.  But he does have a late night trade update indicating that the Yankees and Phillies are hammering out a deal for Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle.

Apparently the two clubs are negotiating which prospects will head to Philly.  The Phillies are said to be targeting shortstop C.J. Henry and starter Steven White.  For some reason Stark says C.J. Wilson in his update, but I believe he meant to say Henry.

C.J. Henry was the Yanks’ first round draft pick in ’05.  He’s the best athlete in the system according to Baseball America.  The 20 year-old has a ways to go with the bat; he’s hitting .237/.326/.350 for low Class A Charleston.

White is a 25 year-old starter who throws in the low 90s.  He’s battled injury issues but conquered Double A this year after his second try.  He’s stumbled a bit in Triple A.

The Yankees are expected to assume Abreu’s entire contract.  I have a feeling that in three years no one will remember which prospects the Phillies got for him, similar to the Mark McGwire trade in 1997.

According to an excellent piece by Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver, the Yankees stand to gain about 1.5 wins by acquiring Abreu.  Such an acquisition should increase their chance of making the playoffs by 14%.  And replacing Sidney Ponson with Lidle is definitely a plus.

Stark: Phils To Package Abreu and Lieber?

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ESPN’s Jayson Stark has a new lead on the Bobby Abreu discussions: the Phils have begun pitching Abreu and Jon Lieber as a package deal.  Stark says that only the Yankees could consider it, and that the price would actually lessen in this scenario because of all the salary.

Check out the Phils’ salary page at Cot’s Baseball Contracts; they’ve got a host of ugly commitments handcuffing Pat Gillick.  Beyond Abreu and Lieber, there are contracts for Pat Burrell, Randy Wolf, Mike Lieberthal, Arthur Rhodes, and Tom Gordon.  In my opinion, if you’re going to blow it up, don’t half-ass it – gut this team Marlins-style.  Well, not to that extent, but Jimmy Rollins probably is the only high-salary player that should be retained.  And only then because the market for shortstops is weak.   

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