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Burrell Continues To Sit

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As a friend mentioned to me, Pat Burrell is one expensive bench player at $9.5 mil.  Burrell is out of the lineup tonight for the fourth time in five games.  Definitely seems like the Phils are attempting to showcase David Dellucci, who has a .976 OPS in 128 ABs this season (not including the 0-fer tonight).  Dellucci, a left-handed hitter, had an .879 OPS in 435 ABs last year with the Rangers.  As crazy as it sounds, Dellucci might be every bit as productive as Carlos Lee for the remainder of the season. 

Pat Burrell is doing his thing, with an OBP near .380 and a SLG around .500.  He’s suffered a power outage in July, however, perhaps because of the sporadic PT.  Burrell is one of the few legitimate above average hitters on the market; a team like the Yankees is in perfect position to acquire him without giving up much besides cash.  He’ll make $27MM for 2007-08.  Baseball Prospectus figures him to be worth just $8.5MM during that span.  With the Thome deal as a standard, some team may be able to convince Pat Gillick to take on $10MM of the remaining contract.   

Trade Rumor Roundup: 7 Days Left

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Here’s the latest from around baseball…

Dejan Kovacevic mentions that the A’s are considering Sean Casey.  Casey’s doing his usual good batting average/low slugging thing and he’s getting $8.5MM for it.  The combined efforts of Dan Johnson and Nick Swisher have been inadequate at first, but would Casey really help?  Johnson is hitting .485/.575/.848 in 33 Triple A at-bats; maybe he deserves another look.  The Athletics, who are dead last in the AL in slugging, wouldn’t be helped by adding the powerless Casey.  They need Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Pat Burrell, or even Raul Ibanez to make a difference. 

The Yankees have decided to hold on to Philip Hughes, and the Phils aren’t biting on whatever else they offered.  According to George King, the Yanks think assuming Abreu’s contract and exercising his option should be enough.  Still, it would be cool to see a nasty young Phillies rotation in 2008 with Hughes, Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, and Scott Mathieson.

Also, I’m hearing that WPEN in Philadelphia has mentioned a trade rumor: Tom Gordon for Trot Nixon.  Nixon is a good hitter (.400 OBP), though he’s 32 with declining power numbers.  Given that Flash would be hands down the best reliever on the market, I’d expect the Phils to get more.   

Kenny Williams didn’t deny the recent Soriano rumor, so now you know it’s legit.  Kenny has been pretty shrewd with the media, so this is probably all part of his plan.  Despite word of a possible contract extension with Washington, Buster Olney all but assured us of a Soriano trade in today’s blog.

Also, Olney nixed the A-Rod to the Cubs idea, explaining that Rodriguez is a bargain in the Yankees’ world.  This column is kind of weird to me.  Phil Rogers almost seems like he’s just cooked up a brilliant scenario or something, with Aramis Ramirez and Jacque Jones being swapped for A-Rod.  Thing is, Bleed Cubbie Blue broke out this exact trade rumor three weeks ago.

RotoAuthority has a look at which pitchers have been abused this season.

Trade Rumor Roundup: 10 Days Left

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Couple of fresh rumors surrounding the Padres’ third base vacancy, and I’m proud to say that MLBTradeRumors was able to deduce these in advance.  A week ago I compiled a spreadsheet of Kevin Towers’ trading history since 2001, nerd that I am.  From that we learned that Towers loves working with the Red Sox and also Bill Bavasi.  That he would consider Adrian Beltre and Mike Lowell for his vacancy followed logically.  Today, the Beltre rumor comes courtesy of Ken Rosenthal and Buster Olney threw down the Lowell rumor.  If those two big dogs fall through, Towers could pursue previous acquisitions Joe Randa or Rich Aurilia.

Plenty of speculation, newspaper articles, and quotes involving Julio Lugo heading to Toronto.  Not that this would be a bad move, but this club has a clear need for pitching.  Ricciardi only has so many bullets to fire as far as prospects and dollars.

ESPN’s Stark Market tells us that the Mets may have soured a bit on Lastings Milledge and could consider shipping him to Philadelphia for Bobby Abreu.  Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus’s Jay Jaffe reminds us that Milledge’s most comparable player is Ruben Mateo, and recommends the deal for New York.

Wacky rumor involving A-Rod to the Phils made the message board rounds yesterday afternoon, but I think it’s safe to say there’s nothing to this one.  Mark Healey agrees.  The best part is that this one actually got all the way to A-Rod himself, who said he’d veto a deal to Philly.  Check out that Gotham Baseball column from Healey for some fresh rumorage.      

I was just checking my referrers, seeing where people are coming from when they land here at MLBTradeRumors.com.  A lot of the traffic comes from search engine queries.  Turns out someone recently found this site by Googling: "what does dayn perry have against royce clayton."  Now that’s a damn good question.

Rumor Roundup

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Another day, another rumor roundup.  Let’s throw everything fresh into the mill.

The Orioles are thinking about taking on one of Philly’s huge outfielder contracts, for some reason.  I guess this could help next year’s push for third place.  Baltimore is one of baseball’s most baffling teams to me.  Abreu rumors have been floating around the Orioles since at least November.

The Cubs and Yankees may have something cooking, with Scott Williamson the likely candidate to be dealt.  If the reliever market is really so inflated, why don’t the Cubs trade Howry and Eyre?

The Pirates are offering up all sorts of non-difference makers, but Mike Gonzalez could actually get them something decent.  The 28 year-old southpaw has a 2.27 ERA in 39 innings this season.  Fantay leaguers should start thinking about Matt Capps as his successor.

Trade rumor All-Star Ken Rosenthal is getting into the game more lately, with a full plate of whisperings posted an hour ago.  Jose Vidro could become a Giant, and the D’Backs would love to trade Shawn Green (of course).

Unfounded rumors: Billy Beane may be shopping Mark Ellis and Jason Windsor, with possible interest in Brian Roberts…the Angels could be after David Dellucci…teams are calling the Mets about Alay Soler…Dallas McPherson is definitely on the block…there’s a decent chance Jon Lieber ends up a Yankee…the Mets and Nats are still talking about Livan Hernandez.

Rumor Roundup

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Here are some trade rumors from the last day or so that we haven’t covered.  All come from various newspapers or other published reports.

Yesterday ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported some Bobby Abreu interest coming from the Brewers.  It was a longshot from the start given Abreu’s contract.  Today it’s been revealed that Doug Melvin hasn’t even spoken to Pat Gillick on the topic, and the rumor was placed by a rival GM.  Any guesses who?

Something seems to be brewing between the Yankees and Royals, and Reggie Sanders is the name that makes sense. The Royals would do well to unload the 38 year-old right fielder’s $5MM commitment for ’07.  A deal could also include reliever Elmer Dessens, who’s signed through next season.  For the second trading deadline in a row, Brian Cashman seems to be taking a more level-headed approach.

Another option for the Yanks is Kevin Mench of the Rangers.  Mench has been jerked around a bit this year by Buck Showalter and could come at a reduced price.  I recently outlined a couple of possible career paths for Mench over at RotoAuthority.  His career may be at a fork in the road; he should take it.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners have become a major player for Alfonso Soriano.  Bill Bavasi has stumbled with some questionable signings, but Seattle remains just four games out in a weak division.  Don’t forget that Bavasi loves to deal with Kevin Towers more than any GM, so he may try to match up with the Padres somehow.

St. Paul Pioneer Press: Tigers Close To Abreu Deal

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I can’t determine who actually wrote this, but it is a published report in the St. Paul Pioneer Press.  It’s called Don’t Print That and has a smattering of rumors from various sports.

The baseball notes:

"A little birdie says the first-place Detroit Tigers are close to a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for right fielder Bobby Abreu.  The Indians, in town to play the Twins, are talking about trading Aaron Boone to the Los Angeles Dodgers."

We’ve all heard of the Tigers’ interest in Abreu, so we’ll have to see what comes of that rumor.  As far as Aaron Boone, I can’t fathom why the Dodgers would want to actually give up a player or cash to acquire the worst third baseman in baseball.  I think Bill Mueller on crutches could outhit Boone.

Dellucci To The Cards?

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This one is very much through the grapevine, but I thought I’d pass it along.  You can definitely trust this rumor if it truly comes from the Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss, though right now it’s a message board report.  (Thanks to Viva El Birdos for the tip.)  I’ll post more when I get it.

But this isn’t a crazy one; David Dellucci is just the type of underrated, underpriced pickup that Walt Jocketty should make. We know the Phillies will see fit to send off the impending free agent; the only question is where. 

I’m a huge fan of the 32 year-old outfielder.  He’s typically been used against righties only, and that worked quite well in his last full season with Texas.  In 2005 Dellucci hit .251/.369/.525 against righthanded pitching.  You’ll just have to get past Dellucci’s typically low batting average; he doesn’t make contact frequently.  However, he did show an excellent ability to draw walks when he led off last year.  He walked in almost 15% of his plate appearances, which is Brian Giles territory.

This season he’s drawn just seven walks in 115 plate appearances, but he hasn’t been a regular so I’d like to think he’s retained the ability.  Dellucci would fit nicely in left field with the Cardinals and would add less than $450,000 to the payroll.  Plus, the Cards could acquire him with players other than Reyes and Wainwright.

Phillies Trade Rumors: Cleaning House

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According to Gotham Baseball and other sources, Pat Gillick is ready to cash in on 2006 and free up some payroll.  The Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees should be involved.

Here’s a look at the team’s contract obligations. 

Bobby Abreu makes $15MM next year and then has a $16MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  Maybe he’ll demand that it’s exercised upon a trade.  He’ll still be a 5-7 win player annually for a little while, but that salary is a beast.  The 32 year-old Abreu is willing to waive his no-trade, and my gut tells me that he’d do it for any contender.  Perhaps Gillick mirrors his Thome deal – acquire a solid outfielder and some decent prospects, eat some salary.

Pat Burrell is set to earn $27MM for 2007-08.  The slugger turns 30 in October.  That’s a painful obligation for a player projected to be worth just $8.5MM during that span by Baseball Prospectus.  The Phils might have to swallow half of this contract to move him.  I feel like it would be Burrell or Abreu but not both – that’s a lot of offense to replace next year.

Randy Wolf makes $9MM this season in his walk year.  He’s just finishing up rehab for Tommy John surgery.  He’s a week or two from rejoining the Phils, and a deadline deal seems a long shot.  However, if he returns and stinks maybe Gillick can pass him through waivers and trade him in August.  The southpaw turns 30 next month and will probaby get decent interest as a free agent.

Mike Lieberthal’s lengthy Phillies career should come to an end as this is the last year of his deal.  He makes $7.5 mil, so I’m sure the team would love to move him from a financial point of view.  He should be activated from the DL tonight after a strained hip.  The Rockies could use a backstop if Gillick wants to do yet another salary dump with the fan favorite.

Jon Lieber makes $7.5MM next season in the last year of his deal.  He’s a 36 year-old control artist who probably has a few decent years left.  I think there’s a good chance he’s moved, and the bounty could be decent if he shows well in his next start or two.  Makes sense at the back end of the rotation of various contenders.

Arthur Rhodes makes a whopping $4.8MM this season in his walk year.  However, the A’s and Pirates are paying more than a million of that.  Rhodes turns 37 in October and has pitched poorly this year after dominating last year.  Gillick probably won’t get much for him, though we’ve seen that the reliever market appears inflated this summer.

David Bell, making $4.5MM in the last year of his deal, is one of the worst-hitting third basemen in the game.  He’s a good glove man but wouldn’t make much of a spare part for a contender.

Tom Gordon is the best available reliever this summer.  He gets $7MM in ’07, $5.5MM in ’08, and a $4.5MM option with a $1MM buyout for ’09.  He’s still getting it done at age 38 and could give a nice stretch run/playoff boost to the White Sox or Yankees.

Cory Lidle makes $3.3MM this year and has a solid 2.4 K/BB ratio.  The 34 year-old is far from impressive, but he still adds a couple of wins compared to replacement level crap.  The Phils should definitely trade Lidle.

Brett Myers is a few years removed from free agency, but the team has that whole domestic abuse issue sitting there.  It’s a tough situation because the team needs Myers to front their rotation for the next few years.  But if you’re gonna rebuild, why hold back?  Myers won’t bring a Josh Beckett-sized bounty, but even with the baggage you’d think the Phils could get one good prospect in return.

Aaron Rowand, a fan favorite, really ought to stay put.  Bit players like David Dellucci and a host of relievers certainly could be traded as well.  I have a feeling this will be a very, very different club in 2007.         

Relievers On The Market

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Sometimes trade deadlines come and go without any phenomenal blockbuster; such was the case last year when July’s biggest deal may have been the Randy Winn trade.  However, one type of player is sure to change hands – contenders will add relievers this month.  Let’s break down the best available.

The reliever who could make the biggest difference this year is probably Tom Gordon.  Trading him now could free the Phillies from the worrisome agreement to pay him $5-7 mil per season as he nears 40 years old.  Gordon has been excellent this year.  A return to the Yankees has been mentioned, and the Brewers or Dodgers could certainly use him.

Joe Borowski has been quite solid in Florida, and he makes less than $400,000.  JoBo’s actually been a lot better than his 3.71 ERA indicates.  He seems a lock to be dealt this month.

Adding a Salomon Torres or Roberto Hernandez from the Pirates doesn’t seem like it could possibly improve a team’s playoff chances significantly.  Still, there’s no reason for Dave Littlefield to keep these guys around given their salaries.

Bob Wickman, an impending free agent, has been connected to the Dodgers in rumors.  LaTroy Hawkins seems like a good candidate to move.  Other possibilities include Brian Meadows, Scott Williamson, Guillermo Mota, Arthur Rhodes, and Gary Majewski.

Rowand for Garland Rumor

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A lot of folks are wondering if there’s anything to the rumored swap of Jon Garland for Aaron Rowand.  Todd Zolecki from the Philadelphia Inquirer said it best:

1. Garland has a 6.04 ERA.

2. He just signed a three-year, $29 million contract in December. He makes $10 million in 2007 and $12 million in 2008. Phillies GM Pat Gillick has talked often about payroll flexibility. It’s doubtful he would take on such a contract, especially for a pitcher who is slumping. Garland’s contract also includes a no-trade clause.

3. Perhaps most important, the Phils love Rowand.

Everything Zolecki says here is spot on.  The proposed deal here would be a huge win for the White Sox but the Phils could do better if they wanted to unload Rowand and replace him with Shane Victorino.

Garland succeeded last year because he sliced his walk and home run rates from previous levels.  His sharp control and low strikeout rate has been on par with the rest of the White Sox pitching staff, but he’s got the worst home runs allowed rate in all of baseball (over 2 per nine innings).  Also not helping is a hit rate over 11, third worst in baseball.  Can’t blame it on BABIP, which sits at a reasonable .310.

One would expect Garland to keep his ERA under 5 for the life of his contract, but he doesn’t figure to be worth more than three wins a year from here on out. 

Aaron Rowand figures to be a bit more valuable, maybe 3.5 wins per season for a while.  His current .301/.345/.509 line resembles his breakthrough 2004.  Rowand also has highly-rated defense, but that depends on which metric you use.

If the White Sox are looking to bring in a center fielder, names like Eric Byrnes, Kenny Lofton, Ken Griffey Jr.,  Ryan Freel,Torii Hunter, Matt Lawton, Joey Gathright, and Juan Pierre might be available.  Pierre and Griffey are players to which the Sox have been linked in the past.  Another option would be to shift Scott Podsednik to center and bring in a left fielder like Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, Luis Gonzalez, Jose Cruz Jr., Cliff Floyd, or Shannon Stewart.   

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