Rowand for Garland Rumor
A lot of folks are wondering if there’s anything to the rumored swap of Jon Garland for Aaron Rowand. Todd Zolecki from the Philadelphia Inquirer said it best:
1. Garland has a 6.04 ERA.
2. He just signed a three-year, $29 million contract in December. He makes $10 million in 2007 and $12 million in 2008. Phillies GM Pat Gillick has talked often about payroll flexibility. It’s doubtful he would take on such a contract, especially for a pitcher who is slumping. Garland’s contract also includes a no-trade clause.
3. Perhaps most important, the Phils love Rowand.
Everything Zolecki says here is spot on. The proposed deal here would be a huge win for the White Sox but the Phils could do better if they wanted to unload Rowand and replace him with Shane Victorino.
Garland succeeded last year because he sliced his walk and home run rates from previous levels. His sharp control and low strikeout rate has been on par with the rest of the White Sox pitching staff, but he’s got the worst home runs allowed rate in all of baseball (over 2 per nine innings). Also not helping is a hit rate over 11, third worst in baseball. Can’t blame it on BABIP, which sits at a reasonable .310.
One would expect Garland to keep his ERA under 5 for the life of his contract, but he doesn’t figure to be worth more than three wins a year from here on out.
Aaron Rowand figures to be a bit more valuable, maybe 3.5 wins per season for a while. His current .301/.345/.509 line resembles his breakthrough 2004. Rowand also has highly-rated defense, but that depends on which metric you use.
If the White Sox are looking to bring in a center fielder, names like Eric Byrnes, Kenny Lofton, Ken Griffey Jr., Ryan Freel,Torii Hunter, Matt Lawton, Joey Gathright, and Juan Pierre might be available. Pierre and Griffey are players to which the Sox have been linked in the past. Another option would be to shift Scott Podsednik to center and bring in a left fielder like Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, Luis Gonzalez, Jose Cruz Jr., Cliff Floyd, or Shannon Stewart.
Clemens Signs, Nevin to Cubs
The long expected Roger Clemens signing with Houston has finally been made official. One less distraction; the sideshow is finally over. Until Clemens decides there’s a slight chance he pitches in 2007. The Astros are 6.5 games back and Clemens should provide a several-win boost over the likes of Fernando Nieve.
The Cubs are 11 games under .500, 12.5 out of first, but they’re not giving up. Jim Hendry just swapped Jerry Hairston for Phil Nevin, a clear win now type move for a team with little chance of winning now. Cubs fans shouldn’t mind the deal, given that the Rangers should take on most of Nevin’s salary. Would’ve been nice if Hendry could’ve pulled this off a month ago though.
Finally, Pat Burrell was curiously absent from the Philadelphia lineup given all the trade rumors swirling about. Burrell makes plenty of sense for the Yanks if they can get him, but they can’t afford to give up any decent starting pitching.
Oliver Perez Available?
Here’s a new one for ya, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll yesterday:
"One rumor from the last few days is that Oliver Perez and Ryan Doumit are being dangled to the Phillies."
Would this deal make a good fit? It seems a foregone conclusion that Mike Lieberthal is spending his last year as a Phillie, so the team does need to begin thinking long-term about its backstop. Doumit would be a decent option. Ronny Paulino has impressed the Pirates so far, and just a few weeks ago Jim Tracy indicated that Humberto Cota would start more often than Doumit for defensive purposes.
While I don’t doubt Doumit’s availability, the Phils would be well served to give Carlos Ruiz a crack at the job in 2007. Granted he’s not a super prospect at age 27, but an impressive 2005 at Triple A coupled with his current .386/.448/.663 line warrants a look.
Obviously, the Phillies need pitching. Their 4.99 team ERA is better than only the Giants. Their starters have been pretty much toasted outside of Brett Myers (though he has allowed more than 1.5 baserunners per inning so far). The hit rates on these guys are out of this world. If you subscribe to the idea that hit rate is largely influenced by defense and luck, you may expect these guys to turn it around.
I do know that Jon Lieber is better than his 6.87 ERA by a long shot. But Ryan Madson has failed in every aspect of pitching so far: hit, home run, and walk prevention, strikeout rate, you name it. I did not see that coming at all, especially after his sparkling spring. With Madson and Gavin Floyd getting smacked around consistently, the Phillies desperately need a reliable veteran to step in if they are to close the five game gap with the Mets. They also need to support their pitchers with better defense – they’re second from the bottom in defensive efficiency this year.
I don’t think Oliver Perez is the answer. Dejan Kovacevic’s April 3rd piece shows how the Pirates are playing it cool, but internally they have to be concerned about his lack of velocity. As the article says, heat was a main ingredient of Perez’s 2004 breakout. The Bucs can afford to sit around for at least a few more months to see if it comes back, but a contender like Philadelphia cannot.
The Phils are stacked with young pitchers like Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, and Scott Mathieson, so I can’t see where an Oliver Perez project fits in. A Hamels callup, possibly this month, may be the shot in the arm the team needs. On the other hand, Perez is a Scott Boras client, and it’s not like Littlefield hasn’t given away star players in the past…
Cubs Shopping Maddux?
A good one from the rumor mill over at Gotham Baseball. Unfortunately their page is not working right now so here’s a link to MetsBlog’s take on Gotham’s report. According to Gotham, Greg Maddux is being shopped. Interested parties: Mets, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Cardinals.
The Cubs would essentially be reducing their rotation to "Carlos Zambrano and pray for a tornado," but Maddux is an impending free agent. My opinion from a couple of weeks ago: he’s the same old Mad Dog, just with a well-timed hot streak. Still, dealing him now would be a very early white flag for a Cubs team with a $94MM payroll. Doesn’t seem to compute. And the obligatory intradivision thing must be cited for the Brewers and Cards. I am surprised no West Coast teams have been mentioned.
Mora Interested In Phillies
The match makes so much sense that it was only a matter of time before the rumors started up. As I mentioned a week ago, Melvin Mora‘s the best available third baseman and the Phillies desperately need one of those.
Now that contract extension talks have broken off between Mora’s agent and the Orioles, the New Jersey Courier-Post reports:
"Mora is believed to be interested in playing with fellow Venezuelan Bobby Abreu. If Mora hopes to be traded this season to Philadelphia, two things might stand in his way. The Phillies currently have three players that can play third base and Abreu would certainly be involved in the trade."
I still don’t know why Mora just didn’t take the money. But as to the quote above, I think two things stand in Mora’s way, and they’re neither of the two listed.
First, the idea that the Phillies have three players that can play third base is technically true, but far from a roadblock. We are talking about David Bell (worst regular in baseball last year), Alex Gonzalez (the 33 year-old with his fifth team in three years), and Abraham Nunez (has topped a .700 OPS once in his career). Not exactly Wright, A-Rod, and Miggy here.
Second, the idea that the Phils could only acquire Mora if they sent Abreu the other way. Huh? Wouldn’t the Orioles prefer someone young and affordable? One of Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd would seem sufficient for an impending free agent.
The first real issue here is money. According to my Phillies source, the team is stretched at their $92MM payroll and even Mora’s $4MM for ’06 would be pushing it. They just added a mil for David Dellucci too. Maybe spending five mil spread among Ryan Franklin, Gonzalez, and Nunez wasn’t such a bright idea?
The other problem with a Mora-to-Philly deal is that third base, no matter how bleak, may not be the team’s most pressing need. Pat Gillick may want to focus on finding a decent backup for Tom Gordon, as the team really doesn’t have one. If Flash and his questionable elbow go down for any length of time, who will the Phillies turn to? Madson? Need him starting. Rhodes? Bombed in the role.
I suppose if you want to get really crazy, you could cook up a scenario in which the Phils send Abreu and cash to Baltimore (thus freeing up payroll) and receive Mora and a decent reliever in return. I’d say LaTroy Hawkins, but something tells me he wouldn’t thrive in Philly if forced to close games. And would Mora still embrace a trade if he didn’t get to play alongside Abreu?
Phillies Buzz Abounds
I’m still trying to piece together the latest Phillies buzz. Phils fans and stadium employees have been emailing me the last couple of days, telling me that the local word is that the David Dellucci trade is a precursor to something bigger. I haven’t been able to verify with any of my sources that anything is afoot.
One scenario is that Dellucci was acquired only because Phils GM Pat Gillick has concerns about Pat Burrell‘s health. Said Will Carroll today:
"Pat Burrell is worrying the Phillies. His left foot problem is starting to cascade, leading to a left calf problem that some scouts think might be a knee injury. Given the David Dellucci trade, the Phillies now have a solid backup.
Some are speculating that this is prelude to some kind of Bobby Abreu trade, but looking back at some of Pat Gillick’s moves, you can see that he likes to hedge his bets with injuries and team depth. While my best Phillies source tells me that Burrell’s leg problems aren’t major, Gillick’s move should keep everyone on alert and watching closely."
Buster Olney, on the other hand, speculated yesterday that the Dellucci trade is part of a complicated series of moves:
"Phillies GM Pat Gillick knows Dellucci from his days as GM of the Orioles, and I don’t think he’d be picking him up knowing that David would only be pinch-hitter type. There’s more mad scientist in Gillick than any general manager I’ve covered; he always thinking two or three moves ahead, and he won’t always tell you what he’s doing. You have to think, on the face of it, that the acquisition of Dellucci is merely the first domino to fall."
Maybe you’d prefer to just listen to Gillick himself, who said today that the deal doesn’t have any mysterious implications of future moves. I don’t know. But I see a team that could catapult to the front of the NL East with one above average starter in place of Gavin Floyd/Ryan Franklin. My best guess is that the Phils stand pat until both of those guys prove they can’t provide league average innings. We already know Franklin can’t, so the decision will rest on Floyd. Randy Wolf has said he wants to make ten starts this year, so maybe he’s that guy.
Who Could Use Melvin Mora?
Melvin Mora is still a pretty good third baseman, tied for tenth best in baseball in 2005 according to WARP. He enters his age 34 season with free agency looming. Mora set a deadline for today for the Orioles to work out a contract extension with him, but Orioles VP Jim Duquette is pretty much ignoring that. Reports say Mora wants $10MM annually, but there is no indication on a number of years.
Mora will make just $4MM in 2006, and he should be worth about twice that. He can only hope he ages like Jeff Kent, one of his top comparables according to Baseball Prospectus. Kent, so far, has been quite productive during his age 34-37 seasons, hitting .298/.362/.531 over 576 games. That included 115 HRs.
I wouldn’t say the Orioles and Mora’s agent are at an impasse yet, but one can at least envision a scenario in which Mora is placed on the trading block between now and July 31st. If the Orioles don’t want to hang on to him, they’d be wise to try to get some value before he leaves.
Here’s a rundown of teams that have questions at third base and could be looking reinforcements at some point. While it’s true that Mora is capable of playing outfield, we’ll stick to the hot corner.
Red Sox: They have the depth to cover a complete Mike Lowell collapse. But if the team wants to upgrade from Youkilis/Choi at the corners, Mora would add dependability. Of course, we all know that deals between division rivals are rare.
Twins: Michael Cuddyer still might be ready for Opening Day despite a strained oblique. He’s the fallback option for Tony Batista, assuming Jason Kubel and/or Lew Ford can handle right field. Batista isn’t off to a great start this year and he’s anything but a lock. Mora’s affordable salary would be attractive to Terry Ryan, though he’d have to part with some young pitching to him.
Braves: Moving Chipper Jones to first and acquiring Mora for third base would be a huge net gain for the Braves’ offense and defense. It would also help keep Chipper healthy. I don’t see it happening, but it’s worth noting.
Phillies: The Phils could really, really use a solid third baseman right now. The hot corner is easily the offense’s weak spot. There have been whispers that David Bell is mulling over retirement, according to Will Carroll.
MLB Free Agents 2007: Eric Gagne
Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne. 30 years old. An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings. Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter! Roto Immortality.) Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer. A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007.
With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that ’07 option. Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it. The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers" on the roster. No, Jose Mesa and Braden Looper don’t count. Danys Baez is an excellent backup that will allow the Dodgers to limit Gagne’s innings this season. But should a decent setup man emerge from Yhency Brazoban, Franquelis Osoria, and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers may just send Gagne packing this summer.
So which contending teams have questionable closers?
Red Sox. I have to assume Epstein doesn’t see Papelbon as a long-term reliever/closer candidate. He’ll probably be in the rotation by July, and Keith Foulke may give out by then. The pen has some depth, but lacks a relief ace. Many folks see Craig Hansen closing out games by year’s end, and I don’t disagree. Still, if he stumbles a bit in his first Major League season, the Sox could take a crack at Gagne.
White Sox. Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson are wild cards right now. With only Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte as dependable options, Kenny Williams could go after the cream of the crop in Gagne. His trading chips will probably have to come from his Major League roster this time.
Rangers. Should Francisco Cordero happen to go down this year, I’m not sure if Texas will be content to give the ball to Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, or Frank Francisco in the 9th inning.
Braves. This really wouldn’t be their style, though Gagne would really solidify the relief corps.
Phillies. What’s Plan B if Tom Gordon‘s elbow gives out? The Phils need Ryan Madson in the rotation and probably don’t trust Arthur Rhodes.
This is all just speculation, but watch the rumors fly this summer if Baez and Gagne are both pitching well and an injury to a starter or position player creates a need for the Dodgers.
Thanks to The Closer Watch for the current bullpen depth charts.
Phils Crave 5th OF
Randy Miller wrote an article yesterday quoting Phils GM Pat Gillick’s desire for a lefty outfield bat off the bench. Miller didn’t throw out any names, so I thought I’d dig around a bit to see who might be on the radar. According to my best Phillies source:
On B.J. Surhoff: "I got a lukewarm response from a high ranking club official when i asked about him a week ago. Not saying it won’t happen, but i didn’t like the guy’s body language."
On Bobby Higginson: "I got a thumbs down when I asked about Higgy a month ago."
On Josh Kroeger (already a member of the team): "They could go from within with this Kroeger kid, but I’m sure they will keep looking."
Just throwing out a name here, but how about trading for Jorge Piedra? Young lefty stick with pop who can hit righties and is buried on the Rockies’ depth chart. I have a feeling the Phils wouldn’t be setting their sights that high for a fifth outfielder, however.
Odds And Ends: Abreu, Manny
In very minor news, ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed righthanded pitcher Jason Simontacchi to a minor league deal. He was slightly less than terrible for Triple A Memphis last year and saw 15 ugly innings in the Majors. He’s not young, but did win 11 games for the Cards back in ’02.
Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News acknowledged the Abreu to the White Sox trade rumor, branding it an "Internet rumor." Fair enough; I could’ve sworn Howard Eskin started this one though. Regardless, I think we should start referring to rumors from the Philadelphia Daily News as simply "newspaper rumors." Why try to identify the source? Too much work.
According to Conlin, "officials from both teams deny any such talks." OK. But I promise that the White Sox have interest in Abreu. Whether they have the goods for it, I’m not sure. While Conlin indicates the White Sox would be settling by adding Gavin Floyd to the deal, my sources and most Phillies fans feel that Floyd as a throw-in is overpayment by the Phils.
If this newspaper rumor about Manny Ramirez is to be believed, the Red Sox have no concept of trading players for equal value. They might as well have asked for John Lackey and Vlad while they were at it.