Prior For Abreu: Forget It
One of the hot rumors at the moment is that the Cubs "didn’t say no" when the Phillies asked for Mark Prior in return for Bobby Abreu. This Philadelphia Daily News article only fueled the fire.
Hopefully putting the rumor to bed, Bruce Levine quoted Jim Hendry recently on ESPN Radio 1000 as saying Prior for Abreu is not an option. According to Levine, Carlos Zambrano is off the table as well.
While the Cubs need a shakeup and Abreu is a star, dealing one of their young, cheap ace pitchers isn’t the solution. Prior had home run and walk problems in 2005. Add in some injury concerns, and his value may be at an all-time low. Given his career 10.5 K/9 mark over 613 innings, Prior still has the chance to take back his spot as one of the best pitchers in the league.
Zambrano actually is one of the best pitchers in the NL. The 24 year old has a 3.26 career ERA and has pitched 200 innings in each of his three full seasons. Here’s how his overall ranking in the NL for each of the last three seasons, according to Baseball Prospectus’s VORP statistic.
2003 – 11th
2004 – 4th
2005 – 10th
While Abreu should certainly bring a young pitcher in return, Hendry would be overpaying to include Prior or Zambrano. Given Abreu’s salary and age, Erik Bedard seems like a more appropriate bounty.
Phillies Sign Tom Gordon
Ken Rosenthal deserves some sort of award for his offseason so far. He’s scooped pretty much every major trade or signing. Given that it’s entirely free and has better writers, I’m starting to gravitate towards Fox Sports more and more.
Anyway, the Phillies signed Tom Gordon for three years and $18-21MM. It ain’t pretty, but they did what they had to do (a.k.a., Plan C). I’m sure Beer Leaguer will weigh in and let us know how Phillies fans are feeling.
Me, I’m a bit taken aback by a team giving three years to a man who just turned 38. Save the $20MM, pour it into a superstar. A guy who plays 160 games and can impact your team by eight wins. Not 80 innings of an aging closer.
Of course, Flash Gordon is a top-notch reliever. The Phillies snagged the best one left on the market; why wouldn’t they? Everyone expected this. I can’t find anything worrisome in his stats besides his age. Current Mets hitters have hit .096 off Gordon in 52 at-bats. For the most part, he’ll be new to the National League hitters he’ll face regularly. I just can’t get past the three-year commitment, especially knowing the Phillies’ history with overpaid relievers.
Is Bobby Abreu Clutch?
I noticed some people saying that Bobby Abreu isn’t clutch. I figured it would make sense to put some numbers behind it to see if it’s just a perception that caught on or if it’s true.
Reader Bill already weighed in with Abreu’s September batting averages in a different post, so I’ll begin by expanding on that to include Abreu’s full AVG/OBP/SLG lines in recent Septembers.
First, his career line: .303/.411/.512. Can’t complain about that.
September 2005: .250/.395/.396
September 2004: .326/.483/.500
September 2003: .308/.432/.407
September 2002: .366/.455/.591
OK, it looks like his power numbers were way down this season and in ’03 in September. But when you’re looking at a sample of 100 at-bats each year, and he has alternated between an excellent and subpar SLG, is it really statistically significant? I don’t think so. Plus, with OBPs like that, it’s not as if he tanked.
How about everyone’s favorite Close and Late stats? Close and Late refers to when the game is in the 7th inning or later and is a one run affair or tied.
Close and Late ’05: .298/.422/.571
Close and Late ’04: .255/.445/.412
Close and Late ’03: .318/.423/.420
Close and Late ’02: .303/.444/.495
First off, no one can complain that Abreu wasn’t clutch in 2005 overall. He had a two-year run where his power numbers were down in late game situations, but does that really make him "unclutch?" Maybe Abreu focused on drawing a walk or hitting a single instead of going for the fences. His OBPs were all above his career average.
Finally, let’s see where Abreu stands with runners in scoring position.
RISP 2005: .303/.444/.500
RISP 2004: .322/.432/.624
RISP 2003: .361/.473/.574
RISP 2002: .313/.441/.556
He’s consistently destroyed pitchers in every way with runners in scoring position.
Some analysts don’t believe clutch hitting even exists, and the inconsistencies in this one sample seem to support that. Regardless, there’s no clear conclusion that Bobby Abreu is "not clutch."
Further Thoughts On Bobby Abreu
Amid the Bobby Abreu for Erik Bedard and Jay Gibbons trade rumor yesterday, I made a comment that Abreu was "strangely unpopular in Philadelphia." While I’ve read this in the papers and seen it on message boards, my comment doesn’t really do justice to Phillies fans. So I emailed Jason Weitzel of the Beer Leaguer Phillies Blog to get further insight on Abreu. Below are some excerpts.
Beer Leaguer visitors on Abreu:
Among Internet users who read my site and others, opinion is largely favorable. Most readers who check out blogs are familiar with the innovative ways teams are valuing talent, and few players in baseball are more deeply defined by numbers than Abreu. He’s the complete offensive package. He is easy to justify quantitatively.
Other Phillies fans on Abreu:
Among blue-collar fans that value hard work, grit and shining in big moments, Abreu stumbles. I’ve watched plenty of Abreu over the years and I don’t disagree with this take either. He disappeared in September, while others like J-Roll, Howard and Lofton stepped up and carried the club on their backs. I blame part of that on fatigue, which had reportedly caught up to him, but it’s not unusual for Abreu to disappear in September, or disappear in these types of games.
On Abreu trade rumors:
Word is the Phils have been shopping both Abreu and Burrell as a way to shake some of the longterm commitments. With Thome gone, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pat Gillick backed off. They need starting pitching and relief pitching badly, but dealing Abreu is not how they’re going to get it, at least not in this offseason. Burrell, Rowand and Abreu give them a powerhouse outfield, probably the best in the division, if not the entire NL.
Bobby Abreu For Erik Bedard And Jay Gibbons
So the John Mabry rumor didn’t carry enough heft for you? Looking for something juicer? How about this from a source in the Philadelphia area:
The Phillies are apparently talking to the Orioles about sending them Bobby Abreu for Erik Bedard and Jay Gibbons.
Abreu was the third-best hitting right fielder in the game in 2005, and the second-best in ’04. He’ll make $13MM in 2006 and is strangely unpopular in Philadelphia. Abreu is also on the hook for $15MM in 2007 with a $16MM club option for 2008. The ’08 option has a $2MM buyout attached. Abreu will be 32 when the ’06 season begins and may be ticketed for the Hall of Fame.
Lefty Erik Bedard has been plagued by injuries, undergoing Tommy John surgery and a sprained knee ligament. He’s still only 26 and is many years away from free agency. Bedard improved upon his control somewhat in 2005, and had a nice showing in 24 starts. He flashed his ace potential before the All-Star break, going 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA. Interestingly, Bedard has Bob Gibson (circa 1962) buried among his otherwise pedestrian comparables.
Jay Gibbons is a young, powerful right fielder who would be an adequate replacement for Abreu. He’ll be 29 when the ’06 season starts and made a little less than $3MM last year. Gibbons slugged .516 in 2005, second only to Vladimir Guerrero among regular right fielders. While comparable to Abreu in power, Gibbons has far less plate discipline and a worse health record.
Thanks to Jonathan O.
Don’t Overlook Haigwood In Thome Deal
At this point, the Jim Thome for Aaron Rowand trade is old news (at least with the speed news travels around the Internet). ESPN is reporting that Buster Olney broke the trade, although I think Bruce Levine may have had it first.
One part of the deal that’s getting zero publicity so far is the White Sox’s inclusion of 22 year-old lefty starter Daniel Haigwood. Once you add it all up, receiving Jim Thome and $22MM for Aaron Rowand, Haigwood, and a third player is nowhere near a good deal for the Sox. For this article, I want to focus on the potential of the known minor leaguer.
Without further ado, let’s take a closer look at Haigwood. He missed 2003 after tearing the ACL in his left knee, and his control was shaky in his first season after the surgery in A ball. Despite the questionable performance in ’04, Haigwood was still ranked the 19th best prospect in his organization by Baseball America.
In July of this year, Haigwood was promoted to Double A Birmingham. He was absolutely phenomenal in eleven starts there, going 6-1 with a 1.74 ERA. He was unhittable, surrendering no home runs in 67 innings. His strikeout rate continued to climb past ten per nine innings.
The knock on Haigwood is his control – he still walks four men per nine innings. He’s got an excellent curve ball, a decent two-seamer, and a developing change-up. Did I mention he’s left-handed?
If Haigwood refines his control a bit, it’s reasonable to project him as a 3rd starter in the big leagues in 2007. Remember the name, because the Phillies acquired more than a run-of-the-mill throw-in in the Thome deal.
Jim Thome To The White Sox
Word from ESPN Radio 1000 in Chicago is that the White Sox are talking to the Phillies about Jim Thome. Apparently the Sox would acquire Thome for some combination of Aaron Rowand, Jose Contreras, and Brandon McCarthy. The Phillies would pay the "majority" of Thome’s contract.
MLBTradeRumors.com is skeptical to say the least. We haven’t received confirmation yet on which ESPN reporter floated this rumor, but the memory of Bruce Levine announcing an imminent Juan Pierre deal is all too fresh. As proposed, this is simply way too much value for the White Sox to give up for Thome.
It makes sense for Rowand to be involved – he’s at the peak of his perceived value and the Phillies need a centerfielder. Scott Podsednik could easily slide over to take Rowand’s place. However, a healthy Thome as DH vs. Rowand in center field could easily be equal in value in 2006. We’re talking 5-6 wins from each player.
While it’s true the White Sox potentially have six starting pitchers, the club would be advised not to depend on anything from Orlando Hernandez. Shipping off Jose Contreras after his dominant second half (2.91 ERA) probably isn’t going to happen. Trading a young player with the promise and affordability of Brandon McCarthy seems equally unlikely. On the other hand, Kenny Williams did deal top prospect Jeremy Reed to Seattle to acquire Freddy Garcia.
Does the money make sense? The ESPN report claims that the Phillies would be paying the majority of Thome’s contract. Thome is due $12.5MM in 2006 and $14MM in 2007, $14MM in 2008, and a $3MM buyout in 2009. (Wow, now that’s a bad contract). Would the Phillies really pick up the tab on most of $43.5MM? I presume we’re talking somewhere around $30MM.
If so, three years of Thome for $4.5MM annually is a solid gamble for the White Sox. Considering the way U.S. Cellular inflates home run totals for left-handed hitters, 40 HR could turn into 46 pretty easily. Rowand has yet to reach free agency and is due $3.25MM in ’06 with a $5MM club option for ’07.
A trade of Thome and $30MM for Rowand is feasible for the Sox, assuming Thome is healthy. If the Sox made the ill-advised move to include a starting pitcher, Phillies management could justify the deal.
We’ll keep you posted as details surface about these trade talks.
Thanks to Alex.