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In Defense Of The Jack Wilson Signing

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Yesterday I noticed that the contract extension given by the Pirates to Jack Wilson was universally panned throughout the Internet.  Maybe someone somewhere liked the deal, but I haven’t seen it in print yet.

While I won’t go as far as to say I liked this extension, I will say that I don’t mind it.  Faint praise, yeah, but let’s not tear the Bucs a new one over this just yet.

I have to admit that the Pirates didn’t do a good job exploiting Wilson’s lousy year with the bat.  He hit .257/.299/.363 in his age 27 season last year, right at career levels.  You’d think they could’ve gotten him for 3/15 because of this.  It’s not as if he was coming off his 2004 Silver Slugger season.  But his agent snagged three years and $20.2MM with an $8.4MM option for 2010 and most folks chalked this one up as a typical Pirate mistake.

Let’s turn to my favorite new toy, Baseball Prospectus’s Marginal Value Over Replacement Player.  That metric says he’ll be worth $15,650,000 over the next three seasons.  BP has him as on average a 3.6 win player over the next three seasons.  Wilson was worth 6.9 wins in 2004 and 4.6 last year, so he can easily beat that projection.  He only needs to beat their projection by four and a half million bucks worth of value spread out over the next three seasons. 

Topping 2005 offensively shouldn’t be too tough for Wilson.  He added 20 pounds this offseason, typically a good thing for hitters. I will admit, this could have an effect on his range in the field.  Keep in mind that Wilson’s ’05 season was definitely affected by a December 2004 emergency appendectomy.  He lost fifteen pounds during that surgery.

There are a million defensive stats out there; just take my word for it that Wilson is a defensive whiz.  His glove probably comprises 90% of his value, so any offensive value is gravy.  It’s not like there’s anything in the Pirates’ farm system that could possibly replace Wilson, even in year three of the deal.  And it’s not like the market is bursting with 4.6 win shortstops; only eleven shortstops were better in 2005.

You want to pan a long-term contract?  Start with Paul Konerko, Kevin Millwood, A.J. Burnett, and Johnny Damon.  There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell their teams break even on those deals.  Of course, breaking even overall matters a lot more to the Pirates than it does to the Yankees.

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Pirates Interested In Sosa

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Emailer Joe tipped me off to a blog referencing an article from a Dominican news service. The article discusses Pittsburgh’s interest in Sammy Sosa.

Despite my pathetic grasp on the Spanish language, here’s what I’ve pieced together from Rob Rossi’s article.

With Joe Randa in tow as the Pirates’ third baseman, they’d like to make one more free agent acquisition this winter.  Now that first choice Eric Byrnes has a tentative agreement with the Diamondbacks, Sammy Sosa is the primary target for right field.  Apparently several teams desire Sosa’s services (I must’ve translated that part wrong.)

The Pirates plan to bat Randa sixth, and they’d like Sosa to hit fourth or fifth in the lineup.  Pirates’ management has the money available to sign Sosa.  As far as I can tell, Rossi thinks the Pirates will be an improved team under the management of Jim Tracy.  The reunion of Sean Casey and Joe Randa and improved defense are key components.

If there are any Spanish-speaking readers who’d like to offer corrections to my translation, I welcome it.

In case the Pirates missed it, Sosa hit a woeful .221/.295/.376 in 380 at-bats for the Orioles in 2005.  It was his worst year since 1991, when he had a wispy mustache and hit .203/.240/.335 in 316 at-bats for the White Sox.  Since I like to point out the hidden positives occasionally, Sosa did manage a .288/.370/.471 line in 104 at-bats against lefties in ’05.  Honestly I think he would’ve made an entertaining platoonmate for Jacque Jones.  Now that would’ve been humbling. 

Anyway, signing Sosa would seem to make Craig Wilson the odd man out in Pittsburgh.  The 29 year-old doesn’t deserve this fate, as he boasts a career line of .268/.363/.488 in 1593 at-bats and can play catcher, first base, left field, and right field.  Expect some team far more intelligent than the Cubs or Pirates to make a deal for Wilson this winter. 

Damaso Marte Dealt For Rob Mackowiak

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Two emailers just told me that Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000 is reporting that the White Sox have dealt lefty reliever Damaso Marte for super-utility man Rob Mackowiak.

For his career, the 30 year-old Marte is 14-14 with a 3.21 ERA in 303 innings.  He’s been tough to hit and strikes out many, but walks have always been a problem.  In 2005, Marte walked a ridiculous 6.55 batters per nine innings.  This will be a return to Pittsburgh for the southpaw.  He was dealt for Matt Guerrier back in 2002.

Mackowiak, a native of Oak Lawn, IL, can handle most of the infield positions and anywhere in the outfield.  His career numbers are .258/.328/.414.  He’s a useful part if kept in a utility role.

Soriano, Benson, Casey Deals Close

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Wow, I stepped out for a couple of hours and a billion trades/rumors occurred.  Here’s three, with more in-depth analysis to come tomorrow.

Peter Gammons is saying the Dodgers are close to acquiring Alfonso Soriano for Jonathan Broxton.  I suppose Soriano could take over at third base; he’s yet to play a Major League game in the outfield.  Broxton would fit well in either the starting rotation or the ’pen.  The hefty right-hander split time between the roles at Double A Jacksonville in 2005.  One of Broxton’s specialties (besides the palmball) is limiting the home run, a trait that will come in handy in a ballpark that inflates homers by 19%.

The Mets dumped Kris Benson and his salary on the Royals, acquiring southpaw reliever Jeremy Affeldt and perhaps Mike MacDougal.  Affeldt has pretty lousy control and just an OK strikeout rate for a reliever; I’m not sure why everyone’s saying that he’ll shore up the Mets’ middle relief.  MacDougal at leasts boasts a career 8.5 K/9.  As for Benson, Kauffman Stadium isn’t much worse of a place to pitch than Shea.  But with the Royals’ defense behind him, he’ll still see his ERA go up at least half a run. 

The Reds unloaded Sean Casey’s salary on the Pirates.  Hopefully Casey will just be a stopgap until Brad Eldred learns to take a walk.  Dave Williams gives up plenty of homers and allows plenty of baserunners, so his transition to Great American Ballpark will be anything but great.  The move probably takes Austin Kearns off the market, as the outfielder logjam is solved now that Adam Dunn will play first. 

What’s Jason Michaels Worth?

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Jason Michaels just can’t get a break.  He was kicked around the minors long enough to lose the "prospect" label, and then he was branded a part-time player despite out-hitting many regular center fielders.  I touted Michaels in my recent Center Fielders With Potential article, noting his .380 OBP in 808 Major League at-bats.

After Kenny Lofton’s contract expired, Michaels finally figured to be pressed into full-time duty.  Of course, the Phillies decided to import Aaron Rowand instead.  Not a bad trade for the Phils, but now they have a clear surplus of center fielders.  It remains to be seen what kind of bounty Michaels will bring.

Odds are that Pat Gillick waits until most of the other CFs are off the market to make his deal for Michaels.  The Yankees are Pirates are already poking around.  The Cubs could get in on the act if Milton Bradley, Juan Pierre, and Brad Wilkerson fall through the cracks.

The Phillies have asked for Chien-Ming Wang from the Yanks, a very even trade as far as I can tell.  They were rebuffed, and then chuckled when the Pirates offered Mark Redman.  Some pitchers I’d consider comparable to Michaels are Jorge Sosa and Bruce Chen.  While Chen is certainly available, the Phillies don’t want him back for a second tour of duty.

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