This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' strong start, the Mets' terrible offense, what a Mets, Red Sox, or Phillies sell-off might look like, Casey Mize's contract year, and more.
Andrew asks:
I came into the year with low expectations for the Cardinals, but we still have a decent record. How long would the Cardinals need to maintain a winning record before I get any hopes up about making the playoffs?
FanGraphs is much more optimistic than PECOTA on this team, so we'll go with their 13.5% playoff odds. The Cardinals have played .552 ball through 17.9% of their season, but FG calls for .462 from here on out. If the Cards instead play .500 ball for their final 129, they'll win 82-83 games, which might put them firmly in the mix for a wild card spot until the end.
At 4.83 runs scored per game, the Cardinals' offense ranks sixth in the NL. If they actually get into the neighborhood of 800 runs, it'd be impressive for any team, not just one that entered the season with low expectations.
Nine Cardinals players have 60+ PA and account for 85% of the team's total:
- Ivan Herrera - 138 wRC+. The Statcast metrics are strong, and even if Herrera can't maintain a 17% walk rate, his .278 xBA and .471 xSLG suggest this is mostly real. If so, the Cardinals have a lineup cornerstone at DH/catcher through 2029.
- JJ Wetherholt - 132 wRC+. The highly-regarded rookie is getting on base and exceeding expectations. He'll slump at some point, but with a 70 hit grade and 55 power, one can make the case for strong production to continue even if it looks different (such as a higher batting average).
- Alec Burleson - 115 wRC+. He has a track record at this level, so this is reasonable.
- Jordan Walker - 153 wRC+. If this holds up, Walker is a top ten hitter in baseball. Maybe that's optimistic, but the breakout is backed by Statcast.
- Nolan Gorman - 81 wRC+. He hasn't really hit since 2023, though he's OK against righties and looks fine at third base this year. If the Astros fall further, could the Cardinals make a trade for Isaac Paredes?
- Masyn Winn - 103 wRC+. He's hitting to expectations.
- Victor Scott II - 39 wRC+. Scott isn't in there for his bat, but seems best-suited for a fourth outfielder role.
- Nathan Church - 106 wRC+. The speedy 25-year-old came into the year as just a 40-grade prospect and may also lack the bat to be a starter, but he hit well in the upper minors. I'm not sure I'd want Scott and Church in the same lineup, but they are a strong defensive pair. Thomas Saggese is in this mix, and prospect Joshua Baez could join it if he cuts down on strikeouts.
- Pedro Pages - 106 wRC+. Pages does have a little bit of pop, but he probably can't keep this up.
Lars Nootbaar underwent surgery in October to address deformities in his heels, and could be a great June addition capable of a 115-120 wRC+. If Nootbaar has a setback, a trade for the aforementioned Duran or Marsh could be interesting. You can't help but wonder how good this offense would look had the Cardinals retained Contreras and Brendan Donovan, though.
Bottom line, though: there's something here with this offense, especially if Nootbaar can provide a boost. And this also seems to be one of the better defenses in the NL. What about the pitching side?
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
The Cardinals are not going to make the playoffs and thats fine. That is the plan. A lot of fans are delusional to what is going on with the team but we dont need to give them a voice. This is a rebuild. There are good young players ready to play at AAA who are going to step in mid season when the rentals are traded.
I would say the most promising thing about this season is the guys who came into the year with 4 years of team control like Herrera, Walker, Liberatore and Winn have all looked good to some extent. That means the rebuild isnt going to last a long time. But 2026 is not the year. Guys like May, Urias, Romero and Nootbaar are most likely going to be traded and the young guys will keep getting opportunities.
Agreed. While the position players may be good enough for a playoff team, the pitching definitely is not.
The starting rotation is actually exceeding expectations so far, but they’re still pretty inconsistent at times, especially Leahy. Plus, Dobbins is the only real depth behind them, and May is especially injury-prone.
The bullpen is in even worse shape. While half of it is quite good (O’Brien, Romero, Graceffo, and Fernandez), the other half is absolutely awful and with no better options at AAA. We’ll see how Pushard does when he returns from the IL, but this is easily the weakest part of the team and the one most likely to sink them below .500 eventually.
As a Yankee fan I want Spencer Jones to work out as much as anybody, but anything more than a cursory look at his numbers will show you that he isn’t (and may never be) a productive major league hitter.
“Richard Fitts is in AAA as depth”
Fitts is out for the year with an injury.