Ricciardi Willing To Listen On Burnett
UPDATE, 11-7-07: This isn’t really an update. Ricciardi kind of clarified his comments, saying that the Jays aren’t shopping Burnett. But he never said they were in the first place. He originally said if he was blown away, he’d trade Burnett. The only people confused were those who didn’t closely read his original comments.
FROM 11-6-07: Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi has said something interesting things to the media in recent times, from lying to the public about B.J. Ryan‘s injury to questioning A.J. Burnett’s manliness. It’s not that his actions and opinions are astounding; it’s just odd to see a GM so publicly frank about things.
Today, Ricciardi was upfront with ESPN about the possibility of trading Burnett. If he’s blown away by an offer, he’ll trade him. It’s not really a groundbreaking assertion. I imagine most GMs feel that way about most players.
In Burnett, another high impact arm enters the trade market. His opt-out clause after the 2008 season effectively makes his contract worse than a one-year deal, as we discussed here. Jerry Crasnick says the Cardinals, Phillies, and even Orioles are possible fits. I could imagine the Braves, Mets, Astros, and Diamondbacks expressing interest as well. Burnett has no-trade protection against 15 teams, so that might require compensation. He’ll earn a reasonable $12MM in 2008.
Should Cards Pursue A.J. Burnett?
Viva El Birdos has a well thought-out discussion of the prospect of the Cardinals trading Chris Duncan for A.J. Burnett. I have a few thoughts to add.
In my opinion Burnett effectively has a one-year deal, only worse. That’s because he has the ability to opt out after the 2008 season. So one of two things will happen:
1. Burnett is healthy enough to pitch 170+ innings, opts out, and secures a four-year deal somewhere.
2. Burnett is not healthy enough to pitch 150 innings and chooses to accept the $24MM owed to him over the 2009-10 time period (I consider 150-170 innings a gray area). If a team trades for Burnett, endures an injury-plagued ’08, and is then saddled with further burden, that’s worse than a straight-up one-year commitment like Jon Garland‘s.
My other thought is that Duncan is not a fit for the Jays. They’re locked in with Lyle Overbay at first and Frank Thomas at DH. Between Adam Lind, Travis Snider, and Alex Rios, the outfield corners are covered. The Jays’ biggest need is a shortstop, also a need of the Cardinals. I suppose Duncan could be part of a three-way deal.
A takeaway, as noted at VEB, is that Burnett may well be the one available pitcher with #1 potential not named Johan Santana. Another good point of theirs – he’s probably worth $12 mil as a 165 inning pitcher.
Odds and Ends: Abreu, Beckett, Helton, Schilling
Friday afternoon rumor tidbits…
- The Indians will probably let Kenny Lofton leave while exercising Joe Borowski’s $4MM option. No big surprise there.
- Nor is it a surprise that the Yankees are heavily leaning towards exercising Bobby Abreu‘s $16MM option.
- From the what might’ve been department: Red Sox owner John Henry was in favor of signing A.J. Burnett instead of trading for Josh Beckett. One could make a solid argument that the Red Sox would be better off if Henry had gotten his wish. Beckett and Julio Lugo combined for 8.6 wins at $14MM this year while Burnett and Hanley Ramirez combined for 14.8 wins at $12.4MM (according to WARP).
- From that same department – Tom Gage notes that the Tigers once nearly acquired Todd Helton for Tony Clark. There were many Clark rumors from 1999-2001 before the Red Sox claimed him off waivers. I heard Buck and McCarver talking recently about how Helton is not a product of his home park. For the record Helton has hit .368/.474/.668 at home in his career and .304/.409/.515 on the road. He probably belongs in the Hall but it would be a lot tighter if his career OPS was .924 instead of 1.014.
- Nick Cafardo makes his case for the Red Sox to re-sign Curt Schilling.
- A scouting look at Hiroki Kuroda, plus other Japanese pitchers who may come over (hat tip to MetsBlog). Jason Churchill estimates a three-year deal for Kuroda at $9-11MM per.
- How would you like to face a 125 mph fastball?
Ricciardi Criticizes Burnett
Why would a general manager publicly criticize one of his own players? Perhaps to fire him up, though that strategy is questionable at best. Most likely such public criticism is simply frustration boiling over into the media, frustration better kept private.
Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi took a few shots at pitcher A.J. Burnett today, essentially saying he regrets the signing and questioning Burnett’s willingness to pitch through pain. How is that strategically a good move for the baseball team? It’s not. It’s emotion spilling over.
The comments seem even more foolish when you consider that the Jays might want to trade Burnett. Burnett didn’t get along with Florida’s front office, and now he’s going to have problems with Ricciardi and company. It’s no way to build up trade value. Why doesn’t Ricciardi point the finger at himself? Burnett was a known health risk at the time of the signing.
In the long run, Ricciardi will prove a worse investment for the Blue Jay franchise. I don’t have a bone to pick with him; I just think he’s done a poor job since his hiring in 2001.
Could Jays Shop Burnett?
A.J. Burnett timed his contract year perfectly, reaching career highs with 32 starts and 209 innings in 2005 for the Marlins. He even would’ve made another start that year, but he ripped the team publicly in September and the Marlins asked him to leave.
The outburst didn’t diminish interest in Burnett during the 2005-06 offseason; reportedly 22 teams expressed interest. The Cardinals and Nationals submitted offers, but Toronto won with five years and $55MM. The deal was panned at the time, but the money looks reasonable now that the pitching market has shifted upward.
Burnett’s stay in Toronto over the past 1.5 years has been laden with DL trips. This time he got a cortisone shot in his sore shoulder and hopes to return shortly before the July 31st trade deadline. Jeff Blair of The Globe and Mail believes J.P. Ricciardi might try to cut ties with Burnett this month, if he can convince some team to gamble on his nasty stuff.
Here’s the contract situation. He has about $6MM left this year, and $12MM in ’08. At that point, Burnett can opt out of the contract. Prior to 2009 season, Burnett must decide whether he can top a two-year, $24MM deal on the open market. That will depend mainly on his health in 2008.
Could Ricciardi really convince a GM to gamble on Burnett’s health and also bear the risk of being stuck with him through 2010? Not likely. Not even if Burnett comes back and tosses a no-hitter on July 30th. The money would be tricky – perhaps Ricciardi would agree to shoulder some of the load if Burnett chooses to honor his contract for 2009-10 (for that would imply that he’s not really worth $24MM over that span).
Billy Beane is definitely Ricciardi’s favorite trading partner, but Beane has his own Burnett to deal with in Rich Harden.
Jays Want Craig Wilson, Burnett To Miss A Month?
Columnist Marty York is "one of Canada’s most popular sports columnists with a track record for breaking big stories." Works for me. In yesterday’s column, he tells us that the Blue Jays would like to acquire Craig Wilson by Opening Day.
York mostly disses the team’s interest in Wilson, comparing him to other "slow, white guys who can hit relatively well but who cannot run much and who are so subpar defensively that they have to be hidden at positions where they’re least likely to cause problems." He ignores Wilson’s .363 career OBP in his comparison. That’s the difference, Marty.
He mentions that the Braves, Padres, Mariners, and Indians are also interested in Wilson.
York goes on to report that A.J. Burnett will miss at least the first month of the 2006 season. That’d be a pretty big hit to their staff. This is definitely news to me, as I’d read that the injury was "not serious" and that he’d only miss a week or two.
A.J. Burnett/Curt Schilling Projections
The latest from RotoAuthority: my Curt Schilling projection. Also on the site is my A.J. Burnett projection from a couple of days ago. Be sure to drop by and let me know what you think.
Also, I’ll be on WGN Radio 720 tonight at 7:30pm central time. It’ll be cool to chat baseball with David Kaplan on Sports Central. Be sure to tune in!
RotoWorld On Burnett: “Very Good Signing”
Whoever writes the blurbs for RotoWorld provided a breath of fresh air with their little editorial on the A.J. Burnett signing:
"Since no one else is saying it, we will: this is a very good signing for the Blue Jays. Burnett is risky, but he’s the one pitcher out there capable of being a dominant force for the next several years. If you’re going to take a chance, it’s much better to spend $11 million per year on Burnett than $7 million-$8 million on Paul Byrd or Matt Morris. And, frankly, everyone on TV and the papers expressing shock and disbelief at this deal just hasn’t been paying attention. This doesn’t raise the market for everyone else. Every team in MLB knew that Burnett could and likely would get this type of contract as a free agent. Deal with it. The money is out there, and it’s going to get spent."
I don’t know who the author of this blurb was, but I have a hunch it was executive editor Matthew Pouliot. I find myself agreeing with his thoughts – with the marginal difference in salary between Matt Morris and A.J. Burnett so small, why not pay Burnett $11MM and see if he becomes an ace? We already know what Byrd and Morris are going to do next year.
Jocketty Faces Burnett Aftermath
A.J. Burnett slipped out of the Cardinals’ grasp because of The Fifth Year, and Lboros over at Viva El Birdos thinks the team was being cheap. He mentions their new stadium, radio and TV deal revenue, and two postseasons in a row. Given that A.J. Burnett was the only free agent pitcher out there who could be a difference-maker, what are Cards fans to do?
Well, they shouldn’t count Walt Jocketty out just yet. While perhaps not the best trade in his history, Jocketty did make a move on one of last Javieyear’s hot commodities, Mark Mulder. He’s fully capable of doing the same thing for Javier Vazquez. The Indians appear to be the front-runner for Vazquez’s services, but the Cards might be able to pull something off.
After a perusal of the Cardinals’ Baseball America Top Ten Prospects, only Anthony Reyes is Major-League ready among a thin crop. It seems that Reyes, and only Reyes, could bring Vazquez, or any other name starting pitcher, to St. Louis. It wouldn’t be the first time Jocketty dealt a near-ready righthanded starter for a proven veteran version. However, should the Snakes insist on a position player (they wanted Coco Crisp), Vazquez won’t be joining the Cardinals. If Jocketty can’t come up with his #2 starter, expect Jason Marquis to remain with the club.
Burnett, Hoffman, Manny, And More
Latest hot stove from around baseball:
Jayson Stark and Jerry Crasnick are reporting from Dallas that the Blue Jays are close to signing A.J. Burnett to a five year, $55MM deal. Seems Burnett’s agent is going back to Walt Jocketty one last time before finalizing the deal in an attempt to squeeze that fifth year out of him. We’ll know soon enough if Jocketty caved in.
According to Hot Stove All-Star Ken Rosenthal, the Indians are nearing a deal with Trevor Hoffman for $21-24MM over three years. For a team that got a solid year out of the decaying corpse of Bob Wickman, this seems a little unnecessary. Especially since Casey Blake and Aaron Boone are currently penciled in as two automatic outs.
Just noticed today that for some reason, Omar Minaya has yet to do an interview with Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog. C’mon Omar, show some respect to baseball bloggers. Cerrone would conduct a better interview than most newspaper writers for sure. Matthew has also dug around in the whole Gaby Hernandez mess, and concluded that yes, the Marlins did indeed acquire him in the LoDuca trade.
On that topic, my Mets source tells me that the Marlins initially insisted on a Major League-ready player for LoDuca. After the Mets declined that request, they asked for Gaby Hernandez. The agents for Ramon Hernandez and Bengie Molina weren’t responding to Omar Minaya’s offers, so he agreed to the LoDuca deal.
The Red Sox wouldn’t mind hanging on to Manny, and my sources say that there’s a good chance a deal does not get done. Only if a team coughs up true star power like, say, a Carlos Beltran, will the Sox send him packing.
Kris Benson should be shipped out of town pretty quickly. Mets’ management doesn’t think Benson will ever be a consistent pitcher, and their distaste for him has nothing to do with his annoying wife.
The possibility of the Mets acquiring Barry Zito is remote at best. Billy Beane is demanding Lastings Milledge, and Zito’s agent is not guaranteeing a 72 hour window for a contract extension. It is more likely that Minaya simply waits a year and signs Zito as a free agent. Javier Vazquez is still very much on the radar, and his past failure under the New York spotlight does not faze the Mets.
Peter Gammons and others are saying the Mets’ signing of Mark Grudzielanek will be made official Thursday.
Mets management is content to go into spring training with Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz duking it out for the right field spot. Let’s just hope Tike Redman doesn’t get regular playing time.
My earlier Andy Marte to the Twins blurb turned out to be more than idle speculation. A source has confirmed that the Twins have offered Jesse Crain, Kyle Lohse, and unknown prospects for Marte.
Thanks to Brandon, John, and Brian.