With the first game of the 2026 season already in the rearview mirror, the offseason is now complete for MLB’s 30 teams. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we have been conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. The Blue Jays came out on top in the AL East, and the Tigers did the same in our poll on the AL Central, and the Mariners were predicted to win the AL West. In the NL West, the Dodgers predictably came out on top, while the the Cubs won a plurality (42%) of the votes in the NL Central. Today, we’ll round out this series of polls with a look at the NL East. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Philadelphia Phillies (96-66)
The Phillies won the NL East in dominant fashion last year, but repeating that feat figures to be a much taller order in 2026. That’s because Philadelphia’s biggest offseason moves were focused on the same core that they’ve used for the last several years. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto re-signed. Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo signed extensions. But none of that meaningfully pushes the ball forward relative to 2025. There were some external additions of note, like Adolis Garcia and Brad Keller, but the Phillies seem very comfortable banking on youngsters like Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter to pick up the slack left by departing All-Stars Ranger Suarez and Nick Castellanos. Will that be enough to keep them at the top of the NL East?
New York Mets (83-79)
The Mets completely overhauled their entire organization this offseason after missing the playoffs by a hair in 2025. Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and Jeff McNeil (among others) are gone. Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Bo Bichette, Devin Williams and Luis Robert Jr. (among others) have arrived to replace them. The result is a completely overhauled lineup that offers the potential for a very impressive offense on paper but comes with real defensive questions as Bichette and Polanco are set to be tasked with learning new positions. With that said, the team’s biggest addition of the winter is surely Freddy Peralta, who will lead a rotation that also stands to get a full season from Nolan McLean this year. It was an unorthodox retool of the roster in Queens this offseason, but this year’s team built around Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor certainly has a chance to be a lot stronger than the one they leaned on last season.
Miami Marlins (79-83)
The Marlins surprised baseball fans in 2025 by nearly making it all the way back to .500, but that wasn’t enough to convince president of baseball operations Peter Bendix to call off the rebuild early. Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers were shipped out the door, while the team’s additions were fairly modest. Owen Caissie joined the team as part of the Cabrera trade return and could be a 30-homer bat in right field, mirroring 2025 All-Star Kyle Stowers in left once the latter is healthy, but a team relying on Christopher Morel at first base and Chris Paddack to be your big free agent additions to the lineup and rotation doesn’t offer much reason for optimism about the club’s division chances. Pete Fairbanks was a strong addition to the bullpen, but Miami will need a big rebound from Sandy Alcantara plus significant steps forward from youngsters like Connor Norby, Max Meyer, and Agustin Ramirez if they’re going to compete for the East.
Atlanta Braves (76-86)
No team in baseball had a more disappointing season last year than the Braves. Virtually everything went wrong in Atlanta last season, as the entire roster struggled with injuries and under-performance outside of a few bright spots like Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson. The good news for Atlanta is, they still have a very talented core on paper. Ronald Acuna Jr. is a superstar with an MVP award on his mantle. Chris Sale is a future Hall of Famer. Spencer Strider and Austin Riley are certainly capable of bouncing back. Additions like Robert Suarez and Mike Yastrzemski should be helpful, though Ha-Seong Kim is starting the season on the injured list after signing on to be their starting shortstop. The bones of a great team are certainly present, but it’s anyone’s guess whether Atlanta can perform up to that level this year.
Washington Nationals (66-96)
The Nationals enter 2026 with little reason for hope in the short-term. James Wood looks like a budding superstar, but MacKenzie Gore has been traded and CJ Abrams could follow suit later this year. Offseason additions like Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas in the rotation should help to eat innings but neither offers substantial upside. Fans in D.C. could hope for big years from players like Wood, Abrams, Cade Cavalli and Brady House, but even with those things going right, the best case scenario would be convincing newly-minted president of baseball operations Paul Toboni to try and make a more substantial effort to compete next year. It would take a minor miracle to get the Nationals into the postseason for 2026, much less as the champions of the NL East.
How do MLBTR readers think the NL East will play out this year? Will the Phillies hang on to win it again despite running it back? Will the Mets’ massive retool work out? Or will a team like the Marlins or Braves surprise and take the crown for themselves? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the NL East in 2026?
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Philadelphia Phillies 40% (2,316)
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New York Mets 33% (1,894)
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Atlanta Braves 21% (1,198)
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Washington Nationals 4% (212)
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Miami Marlins 3% (152)
Total votes: 5,772
Go Phillies!
Only reason to pick a different team for this division is fandom
Phillies are the favorite, but all the teams have their own warts. I think if Crawford is a stud and Wheeler returns somewhere close to his normal self, they’ll win it.
Eh, they didn’t really get better. Still almost basically the same team minus Suarez and Strahm. I think Adolis is just about as cooked as Castellanos was too.
Yeah good point on Adolis. I forgot to mention Painter too though. He’ll be a big factor.
Offensively, perhaps. Defensively Adolis is an exponential improvement over Castellanos.
None of the teams really got any better imo. The Mets changed things up yes but improved? Certainly not 13 wins worth imo. Phillies have been the best team in the division for years with mostly the same roster. They will miss Suarez but Painter needed to play sooner or later. Agree Garcia and Casty is basically a push. Crawford> Rojas though yeah? Full season of Duran closing out games too
Have to remember just about everyone on the Phillies roster is at least 30+. Realmuto is 36(!) and they re-signed him to ostensibly be their starting catcher again. Harper and Schwarber will still be good but I don’t expect them to maintain MVP candidacy as they get older. Nola is becoming an albatross, and it’s hard to say if Wheeler will ever be the same after thoracic outlet surgery.
More like the reason to pick ANY team here is fandom
It’s crazy to say considering the payrolls, but it’s a list of not great options. There is a lot of variance in potential outcomes for every team but the Nationals.
Go Phillies!😎
Some in the “fandom” picks the Phillies like me.
Well I’d say Philly, but as long as they have the kiss of death (Mattingly) the can’t win.
Atlanta has too many injuries, the nats
Don Mattingly was the best pick best pick up by any team all off-season. 😀
The Marlins and Nats aren’t good enough, and Atlanta and Philly have some question marks, more so the former. Sadly I think it’s the Mets.
The Mets have as many questions as the Braves and Phillies, maybe more.
Phillies are smart bet but Mets’ lineup could be a meat grinder and spell DOOM for opponents.
The thing with the Mets is going to be how bad will the defense be, especially on the corners with both Bichette and Polanco playing out of position. Offensively, if they stay healthy and the position changes don’t effect Bichette and Polanco offensively they will be tough, but i do think they will miss the power Alonso brought to the lineup
I see the Mets and I think how does a team with all those big name players still end up a hot mess?
Oh yeah they are the Mets
I think the Mets will be good, especially if McLean continues to improve, but playing Bo at 3rd is a bad mistake. I understand—since they have Semien at 2b—why they’re doing it, bit it’s a mistake they should have considered before making the Marcus trade—and I like Semien!
A huge part of Bo’s defensive woes at SS came from a slight lack of range and athleticism. An acrobat he is not. At 3B he should be a bit better since he won’t have to run all over the place as much. The arm is still questionable but if he’s around average overall I’d consider that a huge win for the Mets. I believe in it even though they’re not my team. If nothing else, he’s a great hitter which is a big upgrade over what they have had no matter what.
Using “slight lack of range” in describing Bichette is like calling a hurricane a “little bit of wind”. His range was the worst in MLB for a SS. His range is about that of a typical 1B. His arm was 36th percentile, so slightly better but no where close to average. He is a great hitter and that is why he is on the team.
If Bo ends up being that bad, they’ll DH him more and have Baty at 3B. But I personally think Bo can be solid after a month of consistent reps at a new position.
No problem with Bichette you are clicking him down the defensive spectrum. The same with Polanco. Neither was great defensively at harder position.so you lessen the liability.
The Yankees had the worse defensive shortstop in history and he won 5 gold gloves. So anything is possible.
Gold Glove equals popularity contest. Look at the history of the award and see how many either played only a few dozen games at the position or were statistically the worst in MLB at that position.
That isn’t how it works. Short stop, is a more difficult position, but the natural move is to second base, a middle infield position that’s less demanding. Playing third base is a different mentality, and is an unnatural transition for Bichette to attempt.
Hmmm. Arod moved to 3B. Ripken moved to 3B. Yount moved to 3B. Sheffield moved to 3B. Bregman moved to 3B. Geno Suarez moved to 3B. Machado moved to 3B. Doesn’t seem that the natural move is to 2B.
Tall short stops transition much better to third base. Yount, moved to cf. Sheffield,Bregman and Suarez never played ss, in the major leagues!! A “normal size”, or shorter ss, transitions much better to second base, where agility is a major asset. Second base also doesn’t require quite as strong of a throwing arm, as third base does.
Now you are trying to spin it to shorter SS. When you have to spin, your point is BS.
The natural move is to 3B. The unnatural move is to 2B where the throws are all different. Different arm action. Different direction on half.
You obviously don’t understand the position. The only players that move from short to third long-term, are tall players that lose their range as they age. The move to second base, is the natural move that most short stops make. Second base requires much more agility than third base.
I obviously do understand the position. I run a baseball academy and more than a few of my students are playing professional baseball including several that play or played that position. The natural move by the player with the strongest arm and best reaction time in the infield and usually on the field anywhere is to 3B.
Since 1986 in MLB, prior to age 33 and of players that have started more than 81 games professionally in any given season at SS, 8% have moved to 3B as their primary position in the majors, 5% have moved to 2B as their primary position, and 17% have moved to OF, and the balance to utility roles or out of MLB.
Most make the move off SS prior to reaching the major leagues. Not because of an inability to play SS, mostly because they are blocked in the majors.
I can give you the python dataset model I used to get that information from the Lahman database if you would like.
You are entitled to believe whatever makes you happy. My previous comment, about you not understanding the shortstop position, stands!! Everyone that truly understands the transition fron short to either second or third base, also understands that the taller player, transitions more naturally to third, while the average or shorter player, transitions much better, to second base.Taller shortstops, with more weight in general tend to slow down ( losing range), at an earlier age than their shorter, more agile counterparts!!
What I posted was not opinion. It was not what I believe. It was the facts base on the actual data. I even offered to show you how I got the actual facts from the Lahman database at SABR.
That you don’t want to know what the facts are tells me I don’t want to converse with you any longer.
They have an elite middle infield with Semien and Lindor, which should only serve to ease in the new guys at the corners.
C, SS, 2B, CF if you get those 4 positive then you can have average around the edges.
Not to mention the 3B is historically bad offensively right now that Bichettes bat will play.
For sure. Plus it’s not like Bichette and Polanco haven’t put in the work all offseason/spring training to learn their new positions. It’s not like they were sitting on the couch eating junk food and playing video games all winter long while they had their agents negotiate contract terms.
Nice to know people have more faith in the Nats than the Marlins.
The Marlins are either going to be a surprise dark horse or more of the same. There is very little in between for them
I think the Surprise Dark Horse would have to aided by another bad season from Atlanta or a Phillies collapse.
The Marlins will continue to improve but they’re not going to dominate the NL East.
The Marlins took a large step backwards. .500 would be a stretch for them.
If there’s a poll for last place the Nats should win in a landslide.
So, what you’re saying is by the all-star break Rob Thomson will be asking, “Will no one rid me of this turbulent bench coach?”.
It’s the Phillies division to lose. The Mets will likely Mets and if they are lucky finish 2nd. The best the Braves can hope for is probably 3rd. The Marlins are either going to be a dark horse Wild Card team or a 4th place team at best. The only way the Nationals don’t finish last is if something goes very wrong in Miami/Atlanta
I think the Christopher Morel experiment at 1B is doomed to failure, and any team that has Chris Paddack in the rotation is already behind the 8 ball. Bendix will have to do better next winter.
Braves gonna win 100.
Mets! Metsies! Metropolitans! NottheYankees!
Let’s go!
It looks like a two team race, but we never know.
How can the Metropolitan’s NOT win? Oh yea, they’re the Mets. 🤣
I think the lineup and defense will be fine and it will all come down to the starting pitching. If we see a repeat with the injuries and they don’t get enough innings from their starters, an overused and abused bullpen will be their downfall again.
ring that bell
Mets are the only team in the division that improved over the winter. We’ll see how the defense turns out but the hitting should be much better.
The Phillies have the best pitching staff in the National League. The Mets pitching staff is slightly above average. The Phillies should beat the Mets by 10 games or more.
I think you are grossly underestimating the Mets rotation. I think you underestimating the Mets improvements to the offense. I think you are not considering at all the age of the Phillies roster, and its ability to break down toward the end of the season, and in the playoffs.
The Mets rotation should be better than last year, but still not anywhere close to the Phillies. The Mets have both additions and subtractions in their everyday lineup. How that plays out over the season remains to be seen. The subtraction of Diaz ( best closer in National League), could make a big difference.
As far as the Phillies age, J T Reaumuto, at 35, is the only player of any concern. Harper is 33, and Turner and Schwarber at both 32. They are all either still in their prime, or at least borderline prime. Age could be a factor in 2028, but this year is of no consequence whatsoever.
baseball history:
The Phillies *used to have* a top rotation. That was when they were going to battle with a healthy Zack Wheeler, the version of Aaron Nola that they gave all that money to and a very underrated Ranger Suarez.
None of the above is reality anymore.
So while they’re still very good at the top with Sanchez and Luzardo, the current iteration of the Philly staff is severely lacking in quality depth. Painter should help replace some of what was lost. But nobody is afraid of the back of that rotation.
And remember, even with that top notch staff and making two straight NLCS appearances… they’ve still won nothing.
Wheeler will be back in the rotation, sometime in April. The only “weak link” starting the season, is Walker. Wheeler has looked surprisingly good so far. Nola looks as good as he was in 2024. He is healthy this year. Painter will be in the running for rookie of the year ( with Mc Lean). The only argument of who has the best starting rotation in the National League, is between the Phillies and Dodgers ( Braves are too beat up).
I do think the Mets improved, but only because pitching matters most. Adding Peralta and having McLean for a full season should help. But, I’m not buying that the offense is better. Alonso is better than Bichette, maybe not skills wise, but as far as actual run production in a lineup is concerned. Nimmo is better than any of Robert, Semien, or Polanco. Heck, McNeil is just average, but can’t you say the same about those 3? Am I the only one not buying this “offensive upgrade”?
Don’t get me wrong, the Mets closed the gap, but it’s mainly because the Phillies lost Ranger and the Mets gained Peralta. They didn’t gain 13 games, imo.
Alonso – 141 wRC+ (with MLB worst defense)
Baty – 111 wRC+
Nimmo – 114 wRC+
McNeil – 111 wRC+
vs
Bichette – 134 wRC+
Polanco – 132 wRC+
Robert – 84 wRC+
Baty – 111 wRC+
Bichette + Polanco is better than Alonso + Baty et al
Soto, Robert, Benge et al is better overall than Soto, Nimmo, Taylor et al
Semien is better overall than Nimmo
McNeil was traded because he was a cancer. A perpetual whiner and someone who didn’t finish plays. No place for that kind of player even if they were an average hitter.
The Mets didn’t get 13 games better, but they improved. The Phillies have lost a step, but not much. Going to be a fun race in the NL East between the Phillies, Mets and Braves. Pitching is going to be the difference.
I’m not sure if the Mets are quite a top seed team, not while the Dodgers and Cubs/Brewers are also doing well, but I could see them winning something between 87-90 games and taking the East by a skosh. It’s a hyper competitive division still, but the Phillies are getting old and they don’t quite have the farm system depth to swing good trades, and I do not like their outfield. Mets have a pretty deep farm system they can leverage for midseason trades to augment the roster down the stretch, which is a notable strength of David Stearns as he helped build the Brewers from the ground up in the late 2010s.
The Mets lost Alonzo, Nimo, and Mc Neil. They added Siemian, Polanco, Bichette and Robert. The hitting could be better, but also could be worse than last year. Alonzo, has “big shoes to fill”!! Both Polanco and Bichette are playing “out of position”, at first and third respectively. Oh, by the way, Diaz is now closing games in L A.
Phillies 93–69
Mets 90–72
Braves 88–74
Marlins 85–77
Nationals 2–160 lol
That’s probably about right.
Change that to Marlins 73-89 and I think you are really close.
I think too many people are assuming Schwellenbach and Waldrep will be out all year. They didn’t have Tommy John. They had loose bodies removed. Both of them could be back by June. The Braves bullpen will be light years better than last year and the offense should be better, especially if Riley and Harris can continue being as good at the plate as they were this spring. Harris actually took some walks. If the Braves are still within striking distance at the break, I wouldn’t count them out. I think having them 3rd right now is fair, but if they can survive the 1st 10-12 weeks and get Waldrep and Schwellenbach back, then get Smith-Shawver back in late August or September, they could all of a sudden become a dangerous team in October.
I’m not counting them out. I just don’t think right now. They’re as good as the Mets or the Phillies but of course when they get those two guys back, it could change things. But keep in mind a month from now. The Phillies should get Zach Wheeler back, which could change things. And then, of course, the trade deadline. Well, any of these teams be willing to do what it takes at the deadline
For sure. Wheeler is awesome. But I’d say returning from having loose bodies removed is different than having a rib removed and thoracic outlet surgery because of a blood clot. I don’t want to see anybody get hurt. Wheeler pitching great is good for the game. But I’d argue that his production once he returns is still a bit of a question mark
Of course it’s a ?. But so far he is way ahead of expectations. He’s already passed all the tests and tomorrow is going to pitch three innings in a rehab assignment. Barring any setbacks be back with the Phillies probably April 20. That would be huge, but I’m being cautious in my mind.
Oh yeah, I’m not talking trash. But there’s a difference between being medically cleared and missing bats. I hope he comes back and his normal self. I’m just not sure we can expect him to come back and instantly be the ace he used to be. I hope he does.
If the Braves were healthy, they would be clearly the biggest threat to the Phillies in the N L East. How long the key starters are out, and how good they are when they return, will determine the Braves season.
Yeah, but you can say that about any team. I just don’t make excuses from injuries. Zach Wheeler missed half of last season and probably won’t be back till May. If the Phillies get off to a bad start, they can’t use that as an excuse. Injuries happen.
For sure. But it’s not often the entire opening day starting rotation is all on the 60-day IL at the same time like happened to the Braves last year. And I’m not suggesting that’s an excuse for them missing the playoffs. They were 14-games under .500 in 1-run games. That’s on the whole team. But I think it’s fair to say the Braves have been hit harder by the injury bug than most other teams the last year or 2.
You made the point much better than I did!!
Have to go Phillies here. Just a well put together team.
Inter division games should be fun, though. Outside of the Nats, anyway.
Phillips = Old players
Braves = injured all the time
Mets = Even Mets’ fans hate the Mets
Nats = Rebuild started (again)
The Marlins are one above-average 1B and another lights out bullpen arm to seize the NL East.
I appreciate the attempts at humor. Don’t quit your day job.
+4000 odds if you are a bettor. +10000 to win the Pennant and +20000 to win the WS.
I don’t know that Phillips is that old.
Would that be “Captain Phillips”?
Mets have won the division only three times since 1988. This year will not make four. Zero chemistry for a team made out of random, individual parts.
“Random, individual parts” beautifully encompasses what every baseball team is.
It would be hilarious if Miami won the East this year.
They will be a much better team.
It would be a miracle worth a huge amount to the few bettors than put money down on them. I think there is a better shot at another Florida team winning the AL East.
The Jumbo Shrimp?
Bold of you to assume they won’t just fire sale in July.
I picked my team, the Mets, but the Phils would have to be slight favorites over them. The Nats and Marlins may make it more difficult for the top three teams to get a wild card.
I think the Mets have a good shot to win the division. They seem like the most well balanced team. Unless they go LOL Mets again!
Nationals are going through rebuild 2.0. Marlins are probably a year or two away. The Braves have had everything go wrong already and the season is literally just starting.
The Phillies are the only ones I see that will be toe-to-toe with them. I can see the division being decided by 2 or 3 games between the two.
Its going to come down to pitching. Everything else is very close for the top 3 teams, the Phillies, Mets, and Braves.
Going to be a fun season for fans of those NL East teams.
I’d say the Mets.
I picked the Mets, but the Braves are a shoo-in for Blue Cross team of the year.
While of course it was only game one and the season is a marathon, the Mets:
1) knocked arguably the best pitcher in baseball out in the 1st inning.
2) crushed back-to-back homers by their eight and nine hitters.
3) have three potential gold gloves up the middle.
The Mets should be the favorite to take the NL East crown.
They didn’t really knock him around. 2 bleeders and the worst defensive center fielder in baseball happened
Cruz, in cf, was the only reason that Skenes was pulled in the first inning. The line drive by Baty ( sac fly with every other major league cf), was the only hard hit ball in the inning!!
Just curious is Semien a borderline HOFer? He has 3 more years of contract and is near 50. Even if you only get 3.5 out of those years. Think 60 would be enough?
I think he needs a serious resurgence for the next years left on this contract, and then hang around for a couple more years after as a backup until he’s 40 or so to rack some career milestones to maybe get in on a late ballot. Lots of ifs though and I think he falls just short. Only 1615 career hits, just over 250 career HRs, not even close to 400 doubles, not quite 150 SBs either. Not quite a lot of hardware either, just 2 gold gloves, 2 silver sluggers, only 3 all-star games, and 0 MVPs. He’s had a very good career so far, and has been underrated in some ways. He will get recognition from the teams he’s played with for that, however I doubt he even gets the Jeff Kent treatment. Kent won an MVP, leads all second basemen in career home runs, collected over 2400 hits, and hit 560 doubles.
Look at this internet tough guy yelling at the sky on an 8 day old article.