With the first game of the 2026 season already in the rearview mirror, the offseason is now complete for MLB’s 30 teams. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we have been conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. The Blue Jays came out on top in the AL East, and the Tigers did the same in our poll on the AL Central, and the Mariners were predicted to win the AL West. In the NL West, the Dodgers predictably came out on top, while the the Cubs won a plurality (42%) of the votes in the NL Central. Today, we’ll round out this series of polls with a look at the NL East. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Philadelphia Phillies (96-66)
The Phillies won the NL East in dominant fashion last year, but repeating that feat figures to be a much taller order in 2026. That’s because Philadelphia’s biggest offseason moves were focused on the same core that they’ve used for the last several years. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto re-signed. Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo signed extensions. But none of that meaningfully pushes the ball forward relative to 2025. There were some external additions of note, like Adolis Garcia and Brad Keller, but the Phillies seem very comfortable banking on youngsters like Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter to pick up the slack left by departing All-Stars Ranger Suarez and Nick Castellanos. Will that be enough to keep them at the top of the NL East?
New York Mets (83-79)
The Mets completely overhauled their entire organization this offseason after missing the playoffs by a hair in 2025. Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and Jeff McNeil (among others) are gone. Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Bo Bichette, Devin Williams and Luis Robert Jr. (among others) have arrived to replace them. The result is a completely overhauled lineup that offers the potential for a very impressive offense on paper but comes with real defensive questions as Bichette and Polanco are set to be tasked with learning new positions. With that said, the team’s biggest addition of the winter is surely Freddy Peralta, who will lead a rotation that also stands to get a full season from Nolan McLean this year. It was an unorthodox retool of the roster in Queens this offseason, but this year’s team built around Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor certainly has a chance to be a lot stronger than the one they leaned on last season.
Miami Marlins (79-83)
The Marlins surprised baseball fans in 2025 by nearly making it all the way back to .500, but that wasn’t enough to convince president of baseball operations Peter Bendix to call off the rebuild early. Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers were shipped out the door, while the team’s additions were fairly modest. Owen Caissie joined the team as part of the Cabrera trade return and could be a 30-homer bat in right field, mirroring 2025 All-Star Kyle Stowers in left once the latter is healthy, but a team relying on Christopher Morel at first base and Chris Paddack to be your big free agent additions to the lineup and rotation doesn’t offer much reason for optimism about the club’s division chances. Pete Fairbanks was a strong addition to the bullpen, but Miami will need a big rebound from Sandy Alcantara plus significant steps forward from youngsters like Connor Norby, Max Meyer, and Agustin Ramirez if they’re going to compete for the East.
Atlanta Braves (76-86)
No team in baseball had a more disappointing season last year than the Braves. Virtually everything went wrong in Atlanta last season, as the entire roster struggled with injuries and under-performance outside of a few bright spots like Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson. The good news for Atlanta is, they still have a very talented core on paper. Ronald Acuna Jr. is a superstar with an MVP award on his mantle. Chris Sale is a future Hall of Famer. Spencer Strider and Austin Riley are certainly capable of bouncing back. Additions like Robert Suarez and Mike Yastrzemski should be helpful, though Ha-Seong Kim is starting the season on the injured list after signing on to be their starting shortstop. The bones of a great team are certainly present, but it’s anyone’s guess whether Atlanta can perform up to that level this year.
Washington Nationals (66-96)
The Nationals enter 2026 with little reason for hope in the short-term. James Wood looks like a budding superstar, but MacKenzie Gore has been traded and CJ Abrams could follow suit later this year. Offseason additions like Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas in the rotation should help to eat innings but neither offers substantial upside. Fans in D.C. could hope for big years from players like Wood, Abrams, Cade Cavalli and Brady House, but even with those things going right, the best case scenario would be convincing newly-minted president of baseball operations Paul Toboni to try and make a more substantial effort to compete next year. It would take a minor miracle to get the Nationals into the postseason for 2026, much less as the champions of the NL East.
How do MLBTR readers think the NL East will play out this year? Will the Phillies hang on to win it again despite running it back? Will the Mets’ massive retool work out? Or will a team like the Marlins or Braves surprise and take the crown for themselves? Have your say in the poll below:
Go Phillies!
Only reason to pick a different team for this division is fandom
Phillies are the favorite, but all the teams have their own warts. I think if Crawford is a stud and Wheeler returns somewhere close to his normal self, they’ll win it.
Eh, they didn’t really get better. Still almost basically the same team minus Suarez and Strahm. I think Adolis is just about as cooked as Castellanos was too.
Yeah good point on Adolis. I forgot to mention Painter too though. He’ll be a big factor.
Offensively, perhaps. Defensively Adolis is an exponential improvement over Castellanos.
More like the reason to pick ANY team here is fandom
It’s crazy to say considering the payrolls, but it’s a list of not great options. There is a lot of variance in potential outcomes for every team but the Nationals.
Well I’d say Philly, but as long as they have the kiss of death (Mattingly) the can’t win.
Atlanta has too many injuries, the nats
Don Mattingly was the best pick best pick up by any team all off-season. 😀
The Marlins and Nats aren’t good enough, and Atlanta and Philly have some question marks, more so the former. Sadly I think it’s the Mets.
The Mets have as many questions as the Braves and Phillies, maybe more.
Phillies are smart bet but Mets’ lineup could be a meat grinder and spell DOOM for opponents.
The thing with the Mets is going to be how bad will the defense be, especially on the corners with both Bichette and Polanco playing out of position. Offensively, if they stay healthy and the position changes don’t effect Bichette and Polanco offensively they will be tough, but i do think they will miss the power Alonso brought to the lineup
I see the Mets and I think how does a team with all those big name players still end up a hot mess?
Oh yeah they are the Mets
Nice to know people have more faith in the Nats than the Marlins.
The Marlins are either going to be a surprise dark horse or more of the same. There is very little in between for them
So, what you’re saying is by the all-star break Rob Thomson will be asking, “Will no one rid me of this turbulent bench coach?”.
It’s the Phillies division to lose. The Mets will likely Mets and if they are lucky finish 2nd. The best the Braves can hope for is probably 3rd. The Marlins are either going to be a dark horse Wild Card team or a 4th place team at best. The only way the Nationals don’t finish last is if something goes very wrong in Miami/Atlanta
Mets! Metsies! Metropolitans! NottheYankees!
Let’s go!
It looks like a two team race, but we never know.
How can the Metropolitan’s NOT win? Oh yea, they’re the Mets. 🤣
I think the lineup and defense will be fine and it will all come down to the starting pitching. If we see a repeat with the injuries and they don’t get enough innings from their starters, an overused and abused bullpen will be their downfall again.
ring that bell
Mets are the only team in the division that improved over the winter. We’ll see how the defense turns out but the hitting should be much better.
Phillies 93–69
Mets 90–72
Braves 88–74
Marlins 85–77
Nationals 2–160 lol
Have to go Phillies here. Just a well put together team.
Inter division games should be fun, though. Outside of the Nats, anyway.
Phillips = Old players
Braves = injured all the time
Mets = Even Mets’ fans hate the Mets
Nats = Rebuild started (again)
The Marlins are one above-average 1B and another lights out bullpen arm to seize the NL East.
Mets have won the division only three times since 1988. This year will not make four. Zero chemistry for a team made out of random, individual parts.
It would be hilarious if Miami won the East this year.