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Alex Rodriguez

Sizing Up A-Rod Options

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Alex Rodriguez is going to dominate the hot stove headlines for the next several months.  But I’ll be sure to give fair time to all the other interesting stories going on.  Anyway, a score of articles came out yesterday regarding Rodriguez’s possible suitors.  Let’s discuss.

  • Giants: The storyline being promoted by the media is that the Giants need a superstar to replace Barry Bonds, and keeping the career home run record in house is especially appealing.  Plus, they are able to work with Scott Boras (hopefully there are no hard feelings over Barry Zito).  Ann Killion doesn’t like the idea, equating A-Rod to Barry Bonds in some ways.
  • Tigers: One would guess that Edgar Renteria was their big offseason splash, but they also work well with Boras.  And Rodriguez could replace Brandon Inge at third base, adding 6-7 wins for the Tigers in the process.  However Lynn Henning does not see a match given the salary and also the home run-limiting ballpark. 
  • Mariners: The Ms are being mentioned as a possibility if they can somehow unload Richie Sexson’s contract and trade Adrian Beltre.  This doesn’t seem realistic, though U.S.S. Mariner questions the perception of A-Rod in Seattle.
  • Angels: This is my pick for Rodriguez.  However Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden have sources indicating that owner Arte Moreno has already informed Bud Selig he won’t be involved.  Moreno has also said publicly he doesn’t want to pay anyone $20MM+.  But Bill Shaikin has a source indicating that the Halos have indeed discussed A-Rod internally.  Doug Padilla is confident Rodriguez lands with the Angels or Dodgers.  Padilla spoke to a former NL GM still involved in baseball operations who noted a Rodriguez home purchase in the OC.  The Angels seem to be the favorite of oddsmakers, and GM Tony Reagins did not rule it out.
  • Dodgers: Feinsand and Madden say the Joe Torre signing would be a deterrent for A-Rod.  I’m against spending that $7MM per year on any manager.  Manny Acta makes half a million bucks, he’s just as good.
  • Cubs: Here we have the Lou Piniella connection and a shortstop opening.  We also have an unsettled ownership situation likely to get in the way.  Paul Sullivan doesn’t get the vibe that Jim Hendry will go after Rodriguez.  Piniella says the team hasn’t discussed it, and he "doesn’t think there’s anything there."   
  • White Sox: Kenny Williams pretty much said "forget it."  That doesn’t mean there’s zero chance, but it’s always been highly unlikely that the Sox would change course and break the bank for a Boras client. 
  • Phillies: Pat Gillick said the Phils were out of the A-Rod Sweepstakes a while ago.  He was at the helm when Rodriguez left the Ms.
  • Red Sox: Epstein has already spoken about bringing Mike Lowell back as a top priority, though the team is flush wish cash and Rodriguez could play short for a few years.
  • Mets: Mark Hale thinks it will at least be discussed at organizational meetings, even if it’s a long shot.  Bob Klapisch discusses the situation in greater detail here.  As you know, David Wright has said he’d move to second base for A-Rod.  Fantasy geeks would rejoice.   
  • Marlins: Some have thrown them into this as a team with a low payroll and A-Rod’s hometown.  This just doesn’t seem likely at all.
  • Rangers: Evan Grant thinks that even an unlikely second tour with Texas will be discussed internally.
  • Blue Jays: They’re officially out per J.P. Ricciardi.  He expects a quiet offseason.
  • Nate Silver does a nice job of summing up all the teams’ chances over at BP.

A-Rod Aftermath

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Lost in the shuffle of Alex Rodriguez’s opt-out media frenzy – the Yankees should be able to snag some nice draft picks for him.  They’ll undoubtedly offer him arbitration, and he’ll decline that offer.  If that does happen and he’s signed by the Cubs, Tigers, Mets, Angels, or Red Sox, the Yankees will get that team’s first-round pick.  The Giants and Dodgers’ first round picks are protected however.

Joel Sherman names the Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, and Tigers as teams to watch in this bidding war.  Kat O’Brien adds the White Sox to the mix, while Peter Abraham adds the Giants.  My best guess is the Halos.  Another thought – does it have to be Lowell or A-Rod for Boston?  Couldn’t it be both if they believe Rodriguez can play a capable shortstop?

Alex Rodriguez Opts Out

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Let the hot stove insanity begin.  Alex Rodriguez has opted out of his contract with the Yankees, according to Scott Boras.  The timing is odd – most folks expected A-Rod to wait until the November 10th deadline.  Boras must be confident that multiple clubs will turn this into a historic bidding war.  The Red Sox will certainly be flush with cash with another World Series win.

The reasoning cited by Boras is suspect – uncertainty over Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte.  Also interesting is that Boras did not communicate the decision to Brian Cashman directly, rather leaving a voicemail for him.

Just yesterday Buster Olney was saying the Yankees were set to offer Rodriguez a five-year, $150MM extension to result in a total of $230MM over eight years.  The sides never met and the offer was never officially made.  As you know, the party line from the Yankees has been that they would not negotiate with Rodriguez if he opted out and they lost the Texas money.  If the Yanks can’t sign Mike Lowell, maybe they’ll attempt to trade for Miguel Cabrera, Garrett Atkins, or Miguel Tejada. 

The Rangers save more than $20MM in payments on the contract, increasing their chances of signing Torii Hunter.

Odds and Ends: Hunter, A-Rod, Bedard

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Sunday morning minor rumor collection…

  • There’s always some skepticism from readers regarding Charley Walters rumors.  Nonetheless I’ll report that he names the Nationals, White Sox, Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers as teams that will bid for Torii Hunter.  I don’t see the Braves getting involved at $15MM per.  And are the Dodgers ready to move Juan Pierre to left field already?  The other clubs named seem reasonable.
  • As expected, the Cardinals interviewed Chris Antonetti for their open GM position.  No doubt it’s an attractive position but you have to wonder what kind of autonomy he’d have with Tony La Russa around.
  • Larry LaRue makes the case for the Mariners tendering a contract to Horacio Ramirez.  He also notes that Jose Guillen is as good as gone and the Ms won’t consider A-Rod.
  • Speaking of that guy, Bill Price suggests the Mets should sign him and move David Wright to first base.  Carlos Delgado I suppose would be a very expensive pinch-hitter in 2008. 
  • Nick Cafardo expects the Orioles to shop Miguel Tejada this winter, which would surprise no one.  But he’s also hearing that Erik Bedard could be available.  Trades of either might be unpopular with the fanbase.  The trade market for starters could be hopping if Johan Santana, Bedard, and C.C. Sabathia are made available.
  • Joel Sherman says Koji Uehara is a free agent, but we have heard differently.  Anyway, the success of Hideki Okajima may create a minor bidding war for Hitoki Iwase.

Yankees to Offer Record Setting Deal to A-Rod

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Buster Olney’s got the scoop on Alex Rodriguez:

"The offer could be for something in the range of five years — beyond the three years Rodriguez is already under contract for, from 2008-10 — and perhaps $30 million a year."

If somehow you’re behind in the A-Rod times, catch up here.  Since that post, the Yankees have requested a meeting with their third baseman sometime before his deadline (10 days after the end of the World Series) to announce whether he will opt out or not.

If the Yankees make this offer, it would be to retain the talent in light of Brian Cashman’s firm stance that if A-Rod opts out then the Yankees will not negotiate.  Also, the offer will prevent $21.3 million still due on A-Rod’s contract in subsidy from the Texas Rangers from slipping away.  Whether or not it signifies that other teams would be able to approach this record offer remains up for speculation.

$150MM extension would net A-Rod a colossal $230MM over the next 8 years.  That’s up from his current $25.2 million to $28.75 million/year, edging out Roger Clemens’ $28 million one-year contract.

Tigers Hot Stove Talk

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Lynn Henning of the Detroit News runs down all of the big names rumored to be possibilities for the Tigers this winter and assesses the likelihood of each.  It’s a well-written article so be sure to read it.  Here are the players, ranked by the percent chance of playing for Detroit next year:

Kenny Rogers – 90%
Todd Jones – 80%
Geoff Jenkins – 75%
Edgar Renteria – 50%
Jack Wilson – 30%
Francisco Cordero – 5%
Alex Rodriguez – 3%
Mariano Rivera – 3%
Raul Ibanez – 0.5%
Torii Hunter – 0%
Andruw Jones – 0%

  • Henning believes Jenkins is quite likely to become a Tiger on a two-year deal.  He only costs money, as the Brewers won’t be offering him arbitration if they decline his option.  The Twins may be in the mix for him as well.
  • Henning notes that new Braves GM Frank Wren and current Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski have a connection and could easily work together on a Renteria trade.  Pitching would be the requirement.  Jeremy Bonderman seems like too much; Nate Robertson perhaps too little.
  • The Tigers badly want to bring Rogers back; that seems very likely.
  • Henning expects Jones back unless he receives an offer from the Braves, located somewhat near his home.  That’s not expected.

Sunday A-Rod Recap

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I hate to post about the same guy twice in a row, but there’s been a flurry of Alex Rodriguez speculation on this fine October Sunday.  To break it down, here’s a brief recap:

  • The New York Post reports the Yankees are expected to make an offer to prevent A-Rod from free agency.  However, the offer will approach neither $300MM nor 12 years.  I think this is both expected and a smart move by the Yanks because…
  • Nick Cafardo likens Scott Boras’ approach toward marketing A-Rod’s "Iconic Value" to the exaggeratory strategy he took with Daisuke Matsuzaka.  And Johnny Damon, for that matter.
  • Bob Klapisch reports that in Torre’s wake, there will be much posturing from Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Alex Rodriguez who we can expect to wait as long as possible to make any decision(s).  And this is because…
  • The New York Daily News’ Mark Feinsand notes that "it is unlikely that the Yanks will have all of their issues resolved" before the tenth day following the World Series, when A-Rod will decide whether or not to opt out.  Mike Lupica meanwhile points out that the unrest in the Yankee system is a golden opportunity for A-Rod to indeed opt out with a plausible excuse.  Or as Scott Boras so eloquently put it to CNN.com, the "state of flux is a grand issue."  And further leverage for the player and his agent.

Posted by Nat Boyle

Marlins Would Benefit Most from A-Rod

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Chris Isidore of CNNMoney.com analyzes the viability of a $300MM contract for Alex Rodriguez and the likelihood of him still being in the Bronx.  Isidore writes:

"A-Rod could produce $48 million per year in revenue and asset appreciation for the Yankees, allowing the team to pay him $34 million in salary, along with a 40 percent luxury tax, and still break even."

Isidore dispels the notion that the YES Network is actually doing better with A-Rod in pinstripes by pointing out a significant decline in viewership since his acquisition in ’04, and that YES fetches most of its profits from fees assessed to cable/satellite providers.  In a most probable scenario, if A-Rod signs elsewhere, YES will lose "only about a 3 percent drop in overall revenue for YES," writes Isidore.

While this isn’t what I refer to as a "substantial rumor," Isidore points out how the one team that would see the greatest economic benefit from signing Rodriguez is the team that resides in his hometown of Miami:  The Florida Marlins.  Isidore notes:

"…for deep-pocketed successful teams like the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox or Angels, there’s a marginal economic benefit from bringing him in, even as fabulous a player as he is. But look at the upside for the Marlins, not just in ticket revenue but also the structure of a new stadium deal.’"

Posted By Nat Boyle

Odds and Ends: A-Rod, Posada, Cardinals

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A few articles that caught my eye this morning…

  • Scott Boras seemingly scoffs at the idea of Alex Rodriguez being forced by the Yankees to sign in November.  Reggie Jackson, a special adviser to the Yankees, thinks Rodriguez will top $300MM if he leaves.  Jackson takes a subtle shot at A-Rod for his lack of postseason heroics.  Rodriguez’s .279/.361/.483 career postseason line pales in comparison to Reggie’s .278/.354/.527.  Wait, no it doesn’t.
  • Barry Rozner thinks Jerry Reinsdorf could arrange for two blockbusters for his teams, netting Alex Rodriguez for the White Sox and Kobe Bryant for the Bulls.  Rozner thinks the $300 mil would come back five-fold.  Rozner manages to work in a shot at Aramis Ramirez, his second in two weeks.  What did Aramis do to Barry?  Anyway…I don’t consider the White Sox serious contenders for A-Rod. 
  • George King says Joe Torre’s departure is more likely to drive Jorge Posada away than Mariano Rivera. 
  • Bernie Miklasz talks about the Cardinals opening their wallet so far this offseason.  Is there a chance payroll could go past $115MM?
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