Bannister for Burgos: done
ESPN is reporting that the Mets are sending Brian Bannister to Kansas City for Ambiorix Burgos. Neither pitcher is a difference-maker, but I’m a bit surprised the Mets are giving up a solid rotation option (albeit a back-of-the-rotation option) for a short reliever.
Burgos has upside, but this says to me that Omar Minaya is very confident of landing at least one more starter this offseason. The Mets rotation could be spectacular once everyone is healthy, but there are a heck of a lot of question marks for Minaya to be trading away his insurance. On the flip side, this seems like a solid deal for the Royals: they need somebody to eat a bunch of innings, and Bannister comes a whole lot cheaper than the Mark Redmans, Tomo Ohkas, and Miguel Batistas of the world.
By Jeff Sackmann, Brew Crew Ball
Gotham: Reds Still After Bonderman
According to Gotham Baseball, reporting from the Winter Meetings, the Reds are still trying to trade for Jeremy Bonderman. Unfortunately, the Tigers probably will not trade him. Wayne Krivsky is chasing a lesser option in Brian Bannister of the Mets. Last week, we reported that the Rockies and Mariners have interest in Bannister.
Of course, plenty of teams are still trying to trade for Jason Jennings. Those include the Mets, D’Backs, Astros, and Cards according to Gotham. Previously, the Rockies had received inquiries from the Cubs and Twins.
Brian Bannister Available?
Word from my Mets source is that the team is in a holding pattern until Tom Glavine makes his decision. He feels that the club will end up with either Glavine or Barry Zito and fill the other spots internally.
There is a chance Brian Bannister is traded for a solid reliever to replace Chad Bradford. Interested parties include the Rockies and Mariners. He mentioned the D’Backs as well, but their interest may have waned now that Doug Davis has been acquired.
Mets Trade Rumor: Milledge For Oswalt Or Schmidt
Jon Heyman busts out a big one early Monday morning: the Mets are in "serious talks" for Jason Schmidt or Roy Oswalt. The key to any deal would be Lastings Milledge.
Heyman mentions that Brian Bannister would be needed to pry Oswalt away but not Schmidt. He also says Aaron Heilman could be used to "enhance" a deal.
It seems now that Oswalt really is in play, which is strange given the Astros’ lack of depth behind Roger Clemens. Speaking of which, why not put the Rocket on the block instead?
Gotham Baseball’s Zito Rumor
Gotham Baseball’s Executive Editor, Mark Healey, had some informed speculation on Monday about a possible trade of Barry Zito to the Mets for Lastings Milledge and Brian Bannister. I figured I’d pass it along, as these guys seem to have some good front office type sources.
Here are some highlights quoted from Healey from the thread:
"Call me nuts…but I still think something is happening here and will in the next couple of days…
Mike and I talk to scouts, front office people every week, sometimes daily….mostly to check on things, etc…
Before and after our respective trips to ST…we both did pre-work and post-work…
When people start getting tight-lipped, and strange things like Milledge and Bannister staying in Major League camp longer than they were supposed to be — my antenna goes up.
However, be that as it may, this thread was specualtion…if I had any corroboration, it’d be in the Rumor Mill.
[posted today] About five minutes after I posted the above I got a phone call from my West Coast guy saying that My speculation "might not be far off the mark" but wouldn’t elaborate…saying to check on what Oakland GM Billy Beane has been up to…
Hmmm…seems Billy traded the immortal Juan Cruz to the D’Backs for Brad Halsey (a 25 year old left-hander)…
Another starter, one less reliever for the Oaks?
The plot thickens…"
New Manny Scenario Discussed?
A source close to the Mets organization has supplied me with a possible trade scenario that is being discussed. It’s complicated, but I thought I’d put it out there.
Mets trade: Aaron Heilman, Cliff Floyd, Victor Diaz, Brian Bannister
Mets get: Manny Ramirez
TB trades: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright
TB receives: Aaron Heilman, Victor Diaz, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox trade: Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox receive: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright, Cliff Floyd, Brian Bannister
Wow. I’m not sure if this is any more plausible than the other complicated possibilities floating around, but this is a solid source. Let’s see if it passes the reality test.
The Mets give up Heilman, Floyd, Diaz, and Bannister for Manny. That’s a huge bounty, but the only real gem there is Heilman. Plus, Manny is still a superstar. Diaz is a good outfield prospect, and Bannister is a B level starter with a low ceiling. Floyd is a year away from free agency and expendable if Manny is acquired. The Mets could always try to get Manny and keep Floyd, but Floyd hasn’t played RF since 2002. I would say this portion is not too far-fetched.
How about Tampa Bay’s side of things? First off, my guess is that upper management would be reluctant to package Lugo and Gathright together. As with the Huff/Baez rumors, why not just trade them separately and maximize the return? The demand is certainly there. Lugo is a hot commodity right now, and the Rays have been asking for a lot of Gathright (Scott Olsen?). Arroyo would make a great #2 for TB; I’ve projected him to lead the Red Sox in wins in 2006. The team doesn’t have a need for Diaz in a stacked outfield. Then again, he’d be a decent fit at first base. They’d probably love to have Heilman in the rotation or closing games. Overall, I’d label this part of the trade as somewhat questionable.
The Red Sox are basically getting three quality Major Leaguers in return for a superstar and a promising young starter. Given Floyd’s injury record and impending free agency, I can see his inclusion. Gathright hasn’t proven anything at the Major League level yet; only Lugo is a known quantity, and he’s also got free agency looming. So if you look at it that way, things seem fair for the Red Sox. The Mets might even have to throw in some cash to make this work for the Sox.
Wild Rumor From Gotham Baseball
Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has heard a massive trade rumor from "multiple independent baseball sources." Of course, it’s subject to change, isn’t close, and all the usual disclaimers. Here’s the Cliff Notes version of it:
"Mets would send Heilman and Matsui (and $5 million) to Tampa Bay for Lugo. Then New York would send Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister and Victor Diaz to Baltimore for Tejada, and then send Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez."
Let’s stop right there. My opinion on each step of this possible deal:
Aaron Heilman for Julio Lugo sounds like fair value to me. Gotham’s sources have the Mets eating $5MM of the $8MM owed to Kaz Matsui in 2006. That part gels with the information I’ve heard from my Mets source that New York would have to pay at least half of Matsui’s salary to unload him. I’m not sure how the Devil Rays would structure their infield, with Jorge Cantu entrenched at second base and B.J. Upton ready to take over at short. I had thought the D-Rays would hold out for more than this for Lugo – a good reliever plus someone else’s baggage. I still feel that they’ll want more.
So then the Orioles are giving up their superstar shortstop, possibly one of the five best players in baseball, for Julio Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister, and Victor Diaz. This is where the plausibility of the rumor breaks down for me. The Orioles have given every indication that they need a star player back for Tejada – they’re not even sold on Mark Prior. Lugo’s a good player for $5MM, but he hits free agency after that. Benson is a fourth starter who figures to post an ERA around 4 over the next two seasons while being paid more than $15MM. That doesn’t add much value for the O’s. Bannister is a smart young pitcher with a good minor league track record, but Baseball America has said he’s "not overpowering" and "doesn’t have a high ceiling." Diaz is still a valuable prospect, but could easily turn out to be a career reserve.
To sum it up, the Orioles are giving up Tejada to get a pretty good SS in his contract year, an overpaid fourth starter, a B-level pitching prospect, and a solid outfield prospect. That’s quantity over quality, and I don’t see it happening.
To finish it off, the Mets ship Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny, effectively giving up nothing impressive for the superstar outfielder, considering the players sent to Baltimore. Not entirely sold on that step, and I’d heard the Orioles did not want Tejada to play for a division rival.
UPDATE: Just asked my Mets source whether the above scenario could happen. He said there’s no way: "Orioles get screwed, the Red Sox get screwed, and the Mets have everything go their way."
Healey’s article also mentions these comments from a baseball official:
"If Barry Zito doesn’t get dealt before opening day, the A’s are screwed. No one is willing to pay Beane’s price after what the Braves paid for Hudson [Namely, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas]."
I don’t agree with the baseball official, for what it’s worth. The A’s hold all the cards with Zito. They have absolutely no need to unload him, and will boast a deep rotation if they keep Zito until July. I find it odd that the official cites the Hudson trade as hurting Beane’s ability to make major trades. The Tim Hudson deal is one where the Braves can be labeled a clear winner. The highly touted Meyer quickly got hurt and is a question mark, Cruz wasn’t deemed Major League ready by Oakland, and Charles Thomas has completely crapped out. Perhaps the official meant to refer to the Mark Mulder trade.
Mets Considering Javier Vazquez
All sorts of trade rumors coming from my source close to the Mets’ front office. While it is well-known that the Mets are interested in Arizona righthander Javier Vazquez, my source names a pitching prospect contrary to published reports.
According to my source, the Mets are considering dealing Kris Benson and 19 year-old blue chip pitcher Gaby Hernandez for Vazquez. Up to this point, published reports have named the polished 24 year-old Brian Bannister as the prospect in the deal.
While Hernandez has not pitched above A ball, he has a much higher ceiling than Bannister. Bannister did impress in 45 Triple A innings in 2005, however.
Vazquez’s problem lately has been the long ball. His HR/9 rate has hovered above 1.4 while his strikeout and walk rates were superb last season. Unfortunately for the Mets, Vazquez carried his home run woes with him on the road in ’05. It will troublesome if he continues to do so, but there’ s no doubt that Shea Stadium suppresses home runs (by 16%) and Chase Field inflates them (by 13%).
Even if Vazquez continues to surrender home runs, he’s a marked improvement over Kris Benson. Benson managed a 4.13 ERA in 2005 to Vazquez’s 4.45, but consider:
He’s two years older than Vazquez.
He was much worse away from Shea Stadium.
He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2000.
His 2005 strikeout rate was a career low.
Considering that the Mets appear to be entering extreme "win now" mode, the Vazquez trade is a good move even if Gaby Hernandez pans out in 2007.