Mariners Watching Starters
UPDATE: Hickey writes that the Mariners have also scouted Kyle Lohse, Matt Morris, Jason Johnson (thought he went to Japan), and Octavio Dotel. However, a deal seems unlikely because none of those players are worth top Mariner prospects.
According to Jim Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Mariners have been scouting all kinds of available and not-so-available starters lately.
- The Mariners have been scouting the White Sox "religiously" lately. If they saw Javier Vazquez beat the Tigers on Tuesday, they came away impressed. (However, Vazquez can and probably would veto a trade to the AL or NL West). They were on hand to watch Jose Contreras tonight; the Tigers had batting practice with him and his ERA is up to 6.22. Did you hear that? That was the sound of Contreras’ remaining ounce of trade value evaporating.
- As you know, the Ms watched Dontrelle Willis on Monday. Compared to Contreras, Willis pitched well – four earned runs, nearly seven innings.
- The Ms also had a scout on hand to see Livan Hernandez twirl a gem over the Marlins on Tuesday. Hey, at least he takes the ball every fifth day. That has to be worth something.
- Hickey says Seattle has also been monitoring the Astros, perhaps in hope of acquiring Dan Wheeler or Chad Qualls. He speculates that Wandy Rodriguez would be a coup for the Mariners. Wand-Rod has thrown up stinkers in his last two outings but tossed a complete game shutout over the Mets in the game prior. He’s inconsistent like that. The Astros’ #2 starter for 2008 wouldn’t come cheap.
Tim Brown’s Latest: Willis, Hillenbrand
Yahoo’s Tim Brown has some new material up:
- So is Dontrelle Willis available or isn’t he? Brown says Marlins GM Larry Beinfest is privately talking about him with other clubs. Brown rattles off the Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Indians as interested parties. Nonetheless, I think the time has passed for the Marlins to get a truly impressive bounty for their ace.
- Shea Hillenbrand will sign with either the Padres or one other unknown NL team. Maybe to the Nationals as Dmitri Young‘s replacement?
- Yes, Bobby Kielty has been DFA’d and the Red Sox are considering him. Typically, the 31 year-old switch-hitter is able to draw a few walks and hit lefties. He can handle the corner outfield positions but hasn’t played center with any regularity since 2002.
Unfounded Rumors
Would you think less of me if I busted out the old Unfounded Rumors category? I know the #1 request at MLBTR is More Rumors. So why not toss a few unfounded ones out there? These are 100% unconfirmed, shaky rumors that have crossed my inbox. Believe them at your own risk.
But since 99% of deadline rumors don’t happen anyway, why not put ’em out there for discussion?
- Word is that FedEx was at Reggie Sanders‘ house today, packing up his stuff. Not sure where he’s headed. This one will have more substance if Sanders is nowhere to be found for tonight’s game against the Yankees.
- If the Cubs somehow traded for Adam Dunn, where would they put him? Hard to imagine.
- Some folks have suggested that the Cubs will acquire Xavier Nady, but Bucco Blog shoots it down.
- Dontrelle Willis has been awful this month; there are whispers that he may need Tommy John surgery. Willis did experience forearm tightness in June, which is often a precursor to or euphemism for elbow problems. Despite his performance and the proclamations that he’s not available, a Mariners’ scout watched him on Monday.
- One rumor that is picking up a lot of steam is that I will be joining MetsBlog Radio tonight at 6pm CST to talk rumors for a half hour.
Dontrelle Willis Staying Put
According to Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Dontrelle Willis is not available right now. The Marlins aren’t having discussions about him, and scouts are not watching him pitch.
I believe Juan, so keep this article in mind when things heat up around Tuesday’s deadline. Rumors will fly fast and furious and I’m sure a few will erroneously involve Willis.
Even if he were available, I probably wouldn’t name Willis the best available starter. As I’ve said, that’s probably Joe Blanton. Knowing Billy Beane, he would at least field offers. Well, I don’t know Billy personally but that’s my guess. If you wanted a poor man’s Blanton, you might be able to pry Noah Lowry away from the Giants for some very good position player prospects. We also have Jon Garland from the White Sox, a third solid starter who does not miss bats. If you want strikeout stuff you’d have to chase Javier Vazquez, whose availability seems very limited.
Rosenthal’s Latest Video: A-Rod, Willis
There’s a new video up with Ken Rosenthal contributing. Let’s see what the man had to say this time:
- According to Rosenthal, Alex Rodriguez will opt out, and he will get $30MM a year. The coverage of this story is just beginning, unfortunately.
- The Marlins have been telling teams they won’t move Dontrelle Willis; they think they’re still in contention. The Fish are 7.5 out in the NL East and 8 out for the Wild Card. The simulations I’ve seen give the Marlins a 1-3% chance at making the playoffs. Would Willis command a stronger package of prospects if dealt now or during the offseason? Dave George thinks his stock will continue to fall, and he needs a change of scenery (Willis heard boos at home for maybe the first time last night). However, Rosenthal’s contention is supported by Juan C. Rodriguez – apparently, only one scout was at Willis’s start last night (a Royals guy who lives in Florida anyway).
Mariners After Dontrelle Willis?
According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, Dontrelle Willis-to-Seattle buzz is starting to heat up. Willis could slide right in with Felix Hernandez to form a solid 1-2 punch atop the Mariners’ rotation.
Baker pretty much covers all the analysis angles and scenarios in his blog posting. The Mariners have plenty of players who could interest the Marlins: Jeremy Reed, Jeff Clement, and/or Wladimir Balentien. Baker does not think Adam Jones would be necessary to get a deal done, and the Mariners wouldn’t part with him anyway. (By the way, click here to see my fantasy analysis of Jones).
It’s an odd time to trade Dontrelle, as his value is pretty low with his performance and forearm issues. Willis just feels like a better pitcher than he actually is, doesn’t he? As Baker says, the Ms would be gambling on Willis returning to form. Better to gamble a few unproven prospects than seven years and $126MM.
It seems that former Willis contenders like the Mets and perhaps Braves might be out of the running. Kevin Kernan of the New York Times says the Marlins won’t trade Willis within the NL East, and most likely he’ll head west.
But before purchasing your custom-made Willis Mariners jersey, consider that the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks have all expressed interest in him before. And those teams are kind of west of some stuff.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Willis, Dunn, Griffey
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up today. Not too much brand new material but worth discussing nonetheless.
- Rosenthal opines that Dontrelle Willis is currently at his peak value. Mark Buehrle is off the market. Dontrelle is seemingly healthy and under control through 2009. There was a scare, though, when Willis had a sore forearm in June. Rosenthal points out that despite mediocre stats the past couple of seasons, Willis still has an ace aura about him. That’s probably because of his near-Cy Young in ’05 and the way he took the league by storm in ’03. The Mets, Mariners, Dodgers, Red Sox, Rockies, and Diamondbacks could all be interested in the Marlins start shopping Willis. Larry Beinfest seems to be leaning against it though.
- The Padres may still consider trading for Adam Dunn, but will see how Milton Bradley plays over the next few weeks first. The Reds and Padres aren’t a great match, as the Padres don’t have many big-name prospects. Maybe something like Clay Hensley plus Chase Headley (those names are oddly similar), if the Reds are sour on Edwin Encarnacion?
- Many members of the Mariners’ front office would like to bring Ken Griffey Jr. back, but CEO Howard Lincoln "harbors resentment over Griffey’s departure in 2000." That makes it sound like Griffey left via free agency, but of course he was actually traded to the Reds. I did a little digging on that situation, and found that the Mariners offered Griffey an eight-year, $140MM contract in September of 1999. Junior turned that down and requested a trade in November, citing a desire to play closer to his Orlando home. Death threats also turned him off from Seattle. At that time he named the Reds, Braves, Astros, Indians, and Mets as teams he’d like to play for. By December Griffey decided he’d only accept a trade to Cincinnati – he even vetoed a trade to the Mets.
- If healthy, David Wells plans to pitch again in ’08. The Padres probably wouldn’t mind having him back.
Mets After Jose Contreras
The Mets have kicked the tires on Mark Buehrle, but Jose Contreras may be a more likely acquisition according to the Newark Star-Ledger. The Mets would prefer not to trade younger players for a rental, and may turn to Contreras because he’s signed through 2009. I’m sure Kenny Williams would have no problem with that. I think Contreras would handle a return to New York well. Lastings Milledge would be more than enough for Contreras, in my mind.
Dan Graziano’s article also confirms that the Braves and Red Sox have been pushing hard for Buehrle. He says there was "no indication last night that the Yankees were interested in Buehrle." Of course, Boston’s interest could change that.
The Phillies, meanwhile, have inquired on both Dontrelle Willis and Buehrle and found the price unreasonable. They’re going to need to acquire a starter one way or another.
Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. A summary appears below.
- Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options. That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
- The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle. Strictly a rental. That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
- The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira. Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
- Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks. They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day. The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters. If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump. Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
- Barry Bonds‘s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening. Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate. Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
- Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley.
- Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him. Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
- Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
- The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth. Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned. The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons.
Stark’s Latest
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has his latest Rumblings and Grumblings column up, and it’s chock full o’ rumors.
- Stark speaks to one NL exec who thinks any Barry Bonds trade rumor is hogwash. That source believes that there would be no market for him. Personally, I don’t buy it. There would only be $8MM or so left on the deal, and as a two-month DH Bonds could make a huge impact on a contender. And he did indicate he’d waive his no-trade clause.
- Word is that the Mets wouldn’t trade Lastings Milledge for an impending free agent – Mark Buehrle included. Milledge could go in a Dontrelle Willis deal though.
- The Braves are seen as a more likely suitor for Buehrle, once he’s truly made available in a week or two. Atlanta won’t settle for a Mike Maroth type. What would the Braves give up for Buehrle? Kenny Williams should pry away Jarrod Saltalamacchia if he can. Otherwise a package involving Brent Lillibridge or Brandon Jones would make sense.
- Meanwhile, the market on Jermaine Dye seems tepid. It would help if he was healthy and hitting. Ah, alliteration.
- Stark debunks the popular Ken Griffey Jr. to Atlanta rumor. He says the Braves aren’t looking for big contract commitments and are more focused on pitching than offense. Rightfully so.
- The Yankees have added Scott Hatteberg to their list of first base targets. As if they needed more OBP.