Dontrelle Willis To Stay?
Take this for what it’s worth. Dontrelle Willis‘ agent, Matt Sosnick, ran into former Marlins GM Larry Beinfest in the supermarket recently. Beinfest basically said that the Marlins plan on Willis remaining with the team, so the two sides should plan to discuss a contract as usual. For Sosnick that means late November talks.
Willis will earn more than $7MM next year, which will probably comprise a fifth or so of the team’s payroll. Most likely new Marlins GM Michael Hill will listen to offers on both Willis and Cabrera and trade one of them.
State Of The Marlins
The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson has all sorts of info concerning the state of the Florida Marlins.
- We’ve heard this before – the Fish can’t afford to keep both Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Do you trade the cheaper guy, or the more valuable one? As Jackson says, it really just depends on the offers. It wouldn’t be a complete shock to see both traded if the Marlins received separate knockout offers on each.
- The Marlins are likely to non-tender Miguel Olivo, with an eye on bringing Paul Lo Duca back to Florida to provide veteran leadership for the young pitching staff. Other free agents on the radar: Yorvit Torrealba, Michael Barrett, Jason Kendall, and former Marlin Ramon Castro. Several of these are $5MM players, so the team’s owner would have to sign off.
- Some kind of MLB-ready starting pitching is likely to come back in a Willis or Cabrera deal. But otherwise the Fish will try an injury-discounted guy like Kris Benson. The market has no shortage of these types – Matt Clement, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings, Jon Lieber, and Jaret Wright all fit the mold.
- The Marlins will listen on Scott Olsen, but aren’t opposed to keeping him.
- For now, Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera are staying put on the left side of the infield. Good luck improving the defense.
- The Marlins would like to bring Aaron Boone back for ’08.
Phillies Have $20MM To Burn
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Todd Zolecki tallied up the Phillies’ commitments and determined that they have roughly $20MM free to spend on pitching, third base, and perhaps Aaron Rowand. Zolecki feels that the Phils would choose to let Rowand walk if they couldn’t fit it all in the budget.
Zolecki mentions Mike Lowell as a possibility for the hot corner; that’d run $8-12MM for ’08 depending on how you backload it. Lowell seems in line for at least two years, $22MM. Gordon Edes has speculated that it could require a three or four year commitment. The Phillies at least fall under the teams on Lowell’s list, it appears.
The other $10MM or so might all have to go toward a starting pitcher. The Phillies have Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, Cole Hamels, and Kyle Kendrick locked in. If the Phils don’t like the free agent market (they had interest in reacquiring Carlos Silva this summer), they could pursue Jon Garland or Dontrelle Willis via trade. The Phils have also scouted Anthony Reyes.
That doesn’t leave any money for Andruw Jones, despite recent speculation.
Marlins To Focus On Rotation, Defense
Marlins starters posted a 5.58 ERA this year, worst in the National League. The five with the most starts were Dontrelle Willis, Scott Olsen, Sergio Mitre, Byung-Hyun Kim, and Rick VandenHurk. Only Mitre was able to avoid posting an ERA above 5.00. Marlins president Larry Beinfest has labeled the rotation the team’s #1 area of need this winter.
Olsen and Mitre are cheap, and you can find positives with both. VandenHurk whiffed a batter per inning, and deserves a look in the #5 slot. Kim will depart via free agency. Josh Johnson will miss all of 2008 with Tommy John surgery. Anibal Sanchez hopes to be ready for Spring Training, but he’s a question mark coming off labrum surgery. Ricky Nolasco is also an unknown after a season lost to elbow problems.
What to do with Willis? Juan C. Rodriguez of the Florida Sun-Sentinel notes that he’s likely to earn around $8.25MM in 2008. That’s an added $2MM, plus another $4MM for Miguel Cabrera. If the payroll is to stay at $32MM, one of them has to go. Rodriguez argues that Willis is worth his salary even with reduced expectations. Plus, trading him now would be selling as low as possible.
The pitching staff would receive a huge boost by better defense, and that’s a close second on Beinfest’s list. The Marlins led the league in errors and were last in defensive efficiency. That last part will definitely inflate your pitchers’ ERAs.
It’s probably best not to trade Cabrera, but rather whip him into shape. If the Fish can’t get him to play a credible third base they should move him to first. Hanley could be a consideration for center field, and then Cabrera could be paired with perhaps a Cesar Izturis or Omar Vizquel on a cheap deal.
How would you fix the Marlins, given these two areas of need?
Rumors and Questions
If Cubs make the playoffs, they will be glad not to see the Marlins in the postseason. After last night’s defeat, the Cubs haven’t beaten the Fish since April… of 2006.
Lots of buzz today, so here are some Rumors and Questions on the day:
- Florida Marlins Fans, it may be disheartening for you, both of you, to know that David Hyde (with some help from Bill Murray) believes as though either Miguel Cabrera or Dontrelle Willis will indeed be dealt this offseason. Tim crunched the numbers and thinks they should shed Willis’ contract. If I had to choose, I’d agree with Mr. Hyde (not Dr. Jekyll) and wave goodbye to Miggy before the D-Train rolls out. Cabrera is indisputably elite and could net a Hanley Ramirez or two. Meanwhile, Dontrelle’s value is at an all time low. Who would you deal?
- Speaking of former Marlins, Buster Olney thinks the Tigers will re-sign Todd Jones. When asked who will close for the Tigers next year, Manager Jim Leyland responded with a definitive "don’t know". Well, maybe he’s getting forgetful in his old age, but we all know who: Joel Zumaya. But is he ready? Chris McKosky of the Detroit News isn’t sure. What do you think? If only he could lay off that Guitar Hero…
- The Rangers and the Twins have each expressed interest in both Torii Hunter and, who else, Barry Bonds. Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire weighs in positively on Bonds, while Joe Christensen says chances are slim but don’t rule it out. Shooter Charley Walters says the Twins will try to re-sign Hunter. But Hunter is from outside Arlington, Texas and when asked if he’s thought a little about going home, he told reporters "I haven’t thought about it a little bit. I’ve thought about it a lot a bit." Meanwhile, the Rangers players say "Thumbs up!" to Bonds. I think the Rangers are a natural fit for both of these vets.
- Also, Ken Rosenthal’s latest video on Foxsports.com breaks down the fates of Managers-Across-The-League. Interestingly, he begins by praising Joe Torre for doing maybe his best job ever, and then notes how if the Yankees stumble in the postseason he might not be back…
Posted by: Nat Boyle
Willis Wouldn’t Mind Playing In Philly
Not exactly a rumor, but worth a mention. This type of thing is common when teams meet up for a series. We saw it with Aaron Rowand when the White Sox played the Phillies this year.
Though the Phillies tattooed Dontrelle Willis Sunday night, Willis’s friend Jimmy Rollins and teammate Brett Myers were discussing how they’d love to see him in a Phillies uniform. Rollins suggested that Willis may be unmotivated in Florida. He also added that he’s asked Dontrelle and confirmed that the pitcher would not mind playing for Philadelphia. Of course, Willis doesn’t have any say in it.
I’ve heard estimates anywhere from $7-9MM for Willis’s arbitration reward this winter. He made $6.45MM in ’07. The Fish had a $30MM payroll on Opening Day of this year, and will owe Miguel Cabrera several million more in 2008. So Willis should account for 20-25% of the payroll.
Will the Marlins pay up for one more year and hope Willis rebuilds his value? Or will they opt to save the money now and trade him this winter? The latter scenario seems more likely. Even with his value at an all-time low it seems the Marlins could get one solid young player for Willis. I speculated recently that there was a tiny chance the Marlins simply non-tender him…but even my assigned 1 in 100 odds on that seem high.
Marlins GM Larry Beinfest can get one guy. Michael Bourn would be a fine target. Jim Salisbury suggests that the Marlins are fond of Shane Victorino. The Phillies are trying to settle their outfield situation for 2008; as you know, Aaron Rowand is a free agent this winter. Salisbury notes that the Phils might be gunshy about acquiring Willis given the whispers of possible health issues. They can’t have another Freddy Garcia trade.
Rosenthal’s Latest Videos: Hunter, Piazza
A couple of Ken Rosenthal new videos – Inside Pitch and Full Count – are up at FOXSports.com. Here’s a summary of the rumor-related stuff.
- Rosenthal says Torii Hunter rejected a four-year, $56MM offer from the Twins. However, Hunter said today that he received no such offer. The Twins approached him about a contract extension, but he’ll wait until the winter to negotiate. At any rate, Rosenthal believes Hunter will end up in the $18MM per year territory occupied by comparables Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells.
- Mike Piazza could be an option for the Tigers if Gary Sheffield’s shoulder problems linger. Currently Sheff is looking to return in early September. Piazza has cleared waivers, so he can be traded to any team. He hasn’t been hitting this month (.654 OPS).
- The Orioles have a couple of valuable trading chips in Kevin Millar and Steve Trachsel. Trax has cleared waivers; Millar is an unknown. Trachsel is back on the radar with a 2.53 August ERA (though he’s whiffed only five in 32 innings).
- Rosenthal says the Marlins will almost certainly explore Dontrelle Willis trades this winter.
Long Shot: Willis Back To Cubs?
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has an interesting note in today’s Rumor Mill:
"The Cubs also still covet Dontrelle Willis as "the one that got away" and–despite his not being on the market–Willis is one player the Cubs could get if Larry Beinfest suddenly changes his mind about that. Adding Felix Pie to Jacque Jones and Donald Veal would get it done, while not adding to the Cubs payroll."
Jim Hendry already tried to patch up one of the all-time classic Cub mistakes by signing Greg Maddux before the 2004 season. At least that departure didn’t happen under Hendry’s watch.
Back in March of 2002, Hendry traded Ryan Jorgensen, Jose Cueto, Julian Tavarez, and Willis to the Marlins for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca. Where are they now?
- Jorgensen, a catcher, had a four-game cup of coffee for the Fish in ’05, and now toils for the Reds’ Triple A team.
- Cueto, a pitcher, never made it past Double A and finished off his career back in the Cubs’ system in ’04.
- Tavarez started 27 games for the 2002 Marlins, but his performance was worth only 0.4 wins. He left via free agency after the season to sign with the Pirates. Now he’s with Boston, of course.
- Clement provided a ton of value to the Cubs during 2002-04; he was worth about 17 wins over those three years according to Baseball Prospectus. He was worth 4.8 wins in 2003, but Willis was worth 5.8 in fewer innings. Getting Clement made this a respectable deal for Hendry, though in hindsight he would’ve rather just kept Willis. Clement signed a three-year deal with B Boston and succumbed to shoulder woes in Year 2 of the pact. He hopes to help Boston as a reliever in September, which should be interesting.
- Alfonseca was OK as the Cubs’ closer in ’02, saving 19 games. He was not helpful in ’03, and the Cubs let him go. Now he’s in the Phillies’ pen.
Back to the present day rumor. Jones, while hitting better of late, probably would not be missed by the Cubs. He’s still only slugging .382 in July. Veal was the Cubs’ best pitching prospect heading into the season but has taken a step backward in Double A. Veal has been control problems, though his arm has been described as "electric." Lefty starters who can touch 95 can be hard to find.
Pie, though, would be the gem of the deal and the player with the best shot at stardom. Literally – BP gives him a 30-40% chance at becoming a star player. He struggled mightily in his first 139 ABs with the Cubs, but he now owns Triple A pitching. He should be the Cubs’ starting center fielder for the next six years at least. Trading him for the declining Willis would create another "one that got away" situation, which seems perfectly Cub-like. Most likely nothing happens in the next two days, but we might revisit this rumor this winter.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Wheeler, Izzy
Ken Rosenthal posted a new column last night, and has updated it very recently. I’ve already spoken about the Teixeira stuff, but there’s other good material in there too.
- Some of the wilder speculation out there has been that the Twins might trade Torii Hunter or Johan Santana if they decide they’re out of it. Various Baseball Prospectus reports put the Twins’ playoff chances between 5-10%. Rosenthal debunks the idea that Minnesota would shop Hunter without first making him an offer, and keeping Santana for at least 2008 makes sense. Plus, Santana has a no-trade clause.
- Rosenthal does have some Twins for us who might be traded: Luis Castillo and Carlos Silva. Castillo has already been connected to the Mets in rumors, though Silva is a new one. One could definitely envision Silva’s style working in the National League (I know, I say that a lot). There was a recent Silva to Atlanta rumor, though Silva’s agent seems to have debunked it.
- Rosenthal says Dontrelle Willis is not available. Perhaps he and Tim Brown will engage in fisticuffs over this disagreement.
- The Diamondbacks have kicked the tires on Adam Dunn. He might make sense as a rental – the D’Backs playoff changes sit between 16-27%, worth fighting for. No doubt they’ve got a stable of young players to offer.
- Rosenthal says the Astros have yet to receive interest on the Lidge/Wheeler/Qualls troika, while Jayson Stark said yesterday that the Astros hadn’t opened shop on them. Thunderdome match #2, Rosenthal vs. Stark. Assuming Ken survives Tim Brown. Anyway, word is that the Rockies have their eye on Wheeler.
- Parties interested in Zack Greinke: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs. This gels with Dan Graziano’s findings. Of course, trading a player like Greinke requires an equally talented youngster in return.
- The Royals may not be able to do better than Cleveland’s Ben Francisco as a bounty for Octavio Dotel. More on him in a separate post.
- Trades of Joe Blanton and Huston Street are "highly unlikely." So you’re saying there’s a chance?
- The chances of the Cardinals trading Jason Isringhausen are described as "remote." The Cards would have a hard time replacing him next year; he’s got a reasonable $8MM option. He also has no-trade protection, so he’d probably want a better extension if he was to accept a trade.
Molony’s Latest: Willis, Encarnacion, Sowers
MLB.com’s Jim Molony has his daily rumor summary up; check it out. New rumors:
- Molony’s sources say the Marlins are now listening to offers for Dontrelle Willis. Might as well – what if the Mariners decide to offer Adam Jones? Many folks remain enamored of Willis’s talent, if not his recent numbers.
- The Cardinals could shop Russ Springer or Juan Encarnacion. Springer is unlikely to be traded, however, because he has his son going to a specific school in St. Louis and the Cardinals respect that. Encarnacion is hitting decently at .293/.329/.471; it might be high time to unload the $6.5MM he’s owed next year.
- Something seems to be going on in Cleveland; GM Mark Shapiro has been in Buffalo watching Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey. Laffey was nearly called up recently. Not much talk about trading Sowers previously, but he might be an interesting chip. He’s similar to Kevin Slowey. They might find success in the NL.
- The Tigers sent scouts to watch Joe Koshansky and Ian Stewart of the Rockies (rumor originated in the Denver Post). Not sure how those two teams match up, but a cheap Koshansky might be worth a look for Detroit at first base next year. Unless Carlos Guillen moves over.