NL Notes: Camp Delays, Dodgers, Cardinals, Gallegos, Health Updates, Senzel, Hamels
Expect delayed arrivals to camp to become somewhat of a recurring story early in training camp as players attempt to clear the many hurdles to return to play. The Dodgers, for instance, will be missing a few players at the start of camp, though manager Dave Roberts wasn’t able to name specific players, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Likewise, the Cardinals will be missing reliever Giovanny Gallegos, who is delayed in his return from Mexico, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. The Cardinals have not given a specific reason for his delay, per The Athletic’s Mark Saxon. Rather than speculate on reasons for the holdup, let’s check in on some health updates from around the league…
- Nick Senzel‘s had a banged-up rookie season, appearing in 104 games with a .256/.315/.427 slash – but he’s ready to go for his sophomore campaign. His first season ended early when a torn labrum required Senzel to get shoulder surgery. That injury is fully recovered now, but only just now, as Senzel reported having throwing pain as recently as a month ago, per Bobby Nightengale of The Enquirer. Senzel may not have a steady defensive home when play begins, but he figures to be an everyday presence in the Reds’ lineup regardless, especially with the DH now in play.
- Cole Hamels was never going to get a full Spring Training, not once a shoulder injury took him out of commission for a few months. The 36-year-old knows that the four-week leadup to the newly-rebooted 2020 season isn’t exactly the same, not at his age, but he plans to be ready to contribute, per Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Said Hamels: “It’s not as if I’m going to go out there expecting to pitch seven to nine innings. There’s going to be a gradual buildup process, and there’s going to be guys who will be able to piggyback on you, like in a high school or a college season. All that really matters is putting up zeroes. If you can put up two or put up five zeroes, that’s really helping the team, more so than (other pitchers) having to pick up and try to eat a lot of innings.”
Jordan Hicks To Begin Season On Injured List
Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks will open the 2020 season on the injured list, manager Mike Shildt told reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). The flamethrowing 23-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery last June and is still in the final stages of his rehab process.
Back in May, Hicks had progressed to the point where he was able to throw multiple 20-pitch bullpen sessions. About six weeks have elapsed since that time, but it doesn’t seem that Hicks is yet at the point where he can immediately contribute. The club does expect him to factor into the bullpen before too long, though no clear timetable was provided.
Hicks turned in a sharp rookie season back in 2018, tossing 77 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball — albeit with a more troubling 5.2 BB/9 mark and 13.3 percent overall walk rate. He looked to be taking his game to another level in 2019, though. Prior to going on the injured list, Hicks pitched 28 2/3 frames with across-the-board improvements in ERA (3.59 to 3.14), FIP (3.74 to 3.21), K/9 (8.1 to 9.7), K% (20.6 percent to 28.2 percent), BB% (13.3 percent to 10.0 percent) and ground-ball rate (60.7 percent to 67.2 percent). Those results and a fastball that averaged 101.6 mph in his brief career to date certainly paint the picture of a potentially dominant reliever.
With Hicks on the shelf to begin the year, the Cards should have plenty of alternatives — headlined by 2019 breakout setup man Giovanny Gallegos and veteran southpaw Andrew Miller. Gallegos, acquired in the 2018 Luke Voit trade with the Yankees, has helped to balance the scales on what initially looked like an inordinately lopsided deal. But while Voit came roaring out of the gates in the Bronx, Gallegos slowly and steadily increased his role in the St. Louis bullpen and wound up with downright dominant results in 2019: 74 innings, 2.31 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 11.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, one save, 19 holds. He’s controlled for another five seasons, so it seems the Cards may have unearthed a key long-term bullpen piece.
As for the 35-year-old Miller, the 2019 season wasn’t his strongest. Like many pitchers, Miller saw his home-run rates skyrocket last year as hitters piled up big flies at record rates amid revelations about alterations to the ball’s composition. Miller’s 4.45 ERA and 5.19 FIP were his highest marks since breaking out as a high-end reliever, but he still averaged 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
The Luke Voit Trade Doesn’t Look So Lopsided Anymore
The Luke Voit trade (as it’s now known) barely drew any headlines when it was struck last July between the Cardinals and Yankees. Chasen Shreve was the best-known player in a deal that was viewed largely as two clubs dealing from positions of organizational depth.
Voit got a quick look with the Yankees before being optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, then returned in late August when the Yankees needed an extra bat after Didi Gregorius landed on the shelf due to a heel injury. His first two appearances in his second Yankees stint were of the pinch-hit variety, but he drew a start at first base on Aug. 24 and, in belting a pair of home runs that day, began a rapid ascension. Those two long ball were the first of seven in a 12-game span. By the end of the year, Voit had exploded with a .333/.405/.689 batting line and 14 home runs in just 148 plate appearances as a Yankee.
A huge showing in Spring Training and yet another Greg Bird injury locked Voit into a spot on the Yankees’ Opening Day roster. Meanwhile, Shreve was designated for assignment by the Cardinals late in camp and went unclaimed on waivers. The trade looked like an all-out heist for the Yankees.
Enter Giovanny Gallegos.
The least-known player involved in that July 28 swap, Gallegos didn’t distinguish himself much early in his Cardinals tenure. It’s true that he dominated in 16 2/3 innings with the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate following the trade in 2018, but he made just two big league appearances in St. Louis (1 1/3 innings pitched) last season and didn’t even break camp with the Cards in 2019. When he did arrive in the Majors on April 11, Gallegos limped out to a slow start. He allowed three home runs and pitched to a 4.80 ERA through his first 15 innings this season. While the 25-to-5 K/BB ratio he posted in that time looked encouraging, Voit was at that point sitting on a .282/.382/.575 batting line and 24 home runs in 319 total plate appearances as a Yankee. The Cardinals drew plenty of criticism for the trade (including from myself).
That May 12 cutoff, admittedly, is rather arbitrary. But since that point, Gallegos has been one of the most effective relief pitchers on the planet. Over his past 46 2/3 innings of work, the right-hander has pitched to a pristine 1.35 ERA with a 56-to-7 K/BB ratio. He’s allowed only three home runs in that span — the same number he yielded in his first 15 innings — and held opponents to a .150/.194/.250 batting line (.193 wOBA) through 170 plate appearances.
Since that time, there’s not a single pitcher in baseball (min. 40 IP) who has been tougher to hit than Gallegos. That .190 wOBA is more than 30 points lower than the second-best pitcher in that same span (Boston’s Brandon Workman). He’s surely benefited from some good fortune (.206 BABIP, 90 percent strand rate), but Gallegos is also 11th in the big leagues with a 28.8 K-BB% in that time. He’s whiffed 32.9 percent of the batters he’s faced since that point and walked just 4.1 percent of them.
On the season as a whole, Gallegos is now boasting a 2.19 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 0.88 HR/9. A 2.58 FIP and 2.70 SIERA support his emergence as a top-tier reliever. His 16.7 percent swinging-strike rate puts him on par with Max Scherzer and places him 11th among MLB pitchers with at least 50 innings thrown in 2019. Statcast indicates that Gallegos is in the 87th percentile of MLB hurlers in terms of fastball spin rate. He’s also in the 87th percentile in expected slugging percentage and the 97th percentile in both expected batting average-against and expected wOBA-against. While some higher-profile relievers have posted similar ERAs with the benefit of some smoke and mirrors, Gallegos’ success doesn’t look to be a fluke.
All of that is particularly good news for the Cardinals, because they can control the late-blooming 28-year-old all the way through the 2024 season. Gallegos won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 campaign; he’ll earn scarcely more than the league minimum in both the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. There’s no more volatile asset in Major League Baseball than relief pitchers, but for the time being, Gallegos has dominated enough to flip the narrative on last year’s trade. One can certainly still argue that the Cards would’ve been better off keeping Voit, but St. Louis was by no means left empty-handed and may even have come away from the exchange with a dominant bullpen anchor for years to come.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.