Thoughts On Hanley’s Deal
Tim here. I thought I’d weigh in on Hanley Ramirez‘s six-year, $70MM contract. I’ve seen the $11.66MM average annual value tossed around, but I don’t think that figure helps us evaluate it. It’s not as if this is a free agent contract.
As far as I can tell, Ramirez’s contract starts with the 2009 season. That would mean it buys out all three arbitration years plus another three free agent years. What did Hanley stand to make in his arb years? Miguel Cabrera will have been paid $33.7MM for that chunk of his career. Given that Ryan Howard received 35% more than Cabrera did for his first arb year, it’s possible that Hanley would’ve earned $45MM for his three arb years.
Under that assumption, there’s only $25MM left to cover the three free agency years. That’s just $8.3MM a year for 2012-14! Ramirez figures to be worth at least three times that salary, regardless of his defense or position. Aside from his superstar performance, Ramirez has been very durable and has shown no ill effects from October shoulder surgery. As if this deal wasn’t team friendly enough, it appears to lack any no-trade provisions. This contract seems so favorable to the Marlins that they would’ve had to sign it regardless of their stadium situation. Of course, nothing has been officially announced yet.
Hanley Ramirez To Sign Long Term
It looks like the Marlins will be locking up their best player for the next six years. Recent reports indicate that Hanley Ramirez will sign a six-year, $70MM deal within the next few days. There is no word on whether all six years are guaranteed, or if there will be any options involved. A six-year deal buys out Ramirez’s first two years of free agency.
As we learned back in March, the Marlins haven’t signed a player to a multi-year deal since Carlos Delgado in January of 2005. Florida finished third in the NL East that year, and began their infamous fire sale that off-season. This off-season, they traded Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, their two highest paid players. They currently reside atop the NL East at 21-14.
Ramirez finished 10th in the NL MVP voting last year, though he probably should have finished higher. He posted by far the highest OPS for a shortstop in the majors, beating MVP Jimmy Rollins‘s mark by nearly .075. He’s said to be a butcher in the field, though, which could force a defensive move in the future. Still, a .948 OPS is a .948 OPS.
In the early goings this season, he’s hitting .336/.421/.569 with eight homers. He makes $439,000 this season.
Posted by Joe Pawlikowski, who writes for River Ave. Blues, a Yankees blog.
Odds And Ends: Crede, Marlins, Canó, Bonds
Some interesting tidbits this afternoon before I check out:
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that one of Brian Sabean’s top advisors, Ted Uhlaender, was present to witness Joe Crede’s homer off of Arizona’s Max Scherzer on Saturday. Seems more and more likely, as Crede proves his back is fine, that he will be moved to the Giants. Will the White Sox get Kevin Correia in exchange for Crede? The White Sox need a back-of-the-rotation guy, and Kenny Williams and company think they can win this year. So prospects probably won’t get it done. While the Giants could conceivably use Rich Aurilia or Kevin Frandsen at third, Sabean will most likely be unable to resist Crede’s 2006.
- Juan Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel digs up this little tidbit: The Florida Marlins haven’t signed a player to a multi-year contract since December 2005, when they signed Carlos Delgado to a four-year, $55MM contract, and Paul Lo Duca to a three-year, $18MM deal. One would hope that this trend will end soon enough, and that owner Jeff Loria will open the purse strings for Hanley Ramirez when the time is right.
- Tyler Kepner of The New York Times explores the relative surprise that Robinson Canó has been considering his draft position and reputation as a prospect, and details how frequently the Yankees almost dealt him before he made the big club. Canó was nearly dealt for Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltrán, and Randy Johnson in different instances.
- AP Sports Writer Bob Baum explains that Bud Selig isn’t trying to keep Barry Bonds from being signed. Selig stressed that each club is free to deal with whomever they please.
Odds and Ends: Crede, Rodriguez, Marlins
Just a couple items worth mentioning:
- Matt Hurst notes Elasticman Scot Shields says "(Heck) yeah" to whether or not the Angels should dish out the big bucks for Francisco Rodriguez, this despite incentives in Shields contract that would kick in should he be transitioned into the closer role.
- Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times touches in on Joe Crede‘s fate after notching his first homerun of the spring, easing concerns for his surgically repaired back. Says Cowley, "Crede’s agent, Scott Boras, already has told general manager Ken Williams that they want to explore the market. With Josh Fields waiting in the wings, the Sox are dealing from a position of strength. The Giants are a top suitor." Scouts were present for Crede’s homerun.
- Marlins Owner Jeff Loria says payroll is "all going to be a function of the revenues we generate. If we have a bigger base than we anticipate, that will go back to the payroll." This from Tom D’Angelo of the Palm Beach Post who add, "When asked if the team could lock up young stars like shortstop Hanley Ramirez for the long term, Loria said: ‘We’re going to look at that going forward. But we are challenged until we get into that new stadium." The Marlins payroll this year is just under $20MM.
Ryan Howard Fallout
Ryan Howard winning a $10MM salary yesterday was kind of a big deal. Let’s examine this first-year arbitration record.
- A source of Jayson Stark’s thinks the Phillies would’ve won had they submitted above Miguel Cabrera’s $7.4MM. Seems that even slightly above would’ve done it, because then Howard losing would’ve still set a record.
- Tom Haudricourt talks about how Prince Fielder is now in line for the same $10MM for his ’09 salary. And he doesn’t see Scott Boras relenting and doing a multiyear deal. Stark adds Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, and Hanley Ramirez as other young stars who will be affected. Zimmerman, arbitration-eligible after ’08, will be renewed for ’07.
- It doesn’t sound like the Phillies will sign Howard long-term, in part because there is no precedent. There is talk of $200MM, something no one expects of the Phils. On the plus side, Howard is theirs for the 2008-11 seasons. They may have to keep giving him record-breaking salaries though. A trade is a strong option before he hits free agency, but that’s a ways off.
- Jim Salisbury thinks Howard’s win might result in another monster year. He expects the Phils to eventually at least talk about a multiyear deal with Howard (maybe once the sting wears off).
What Might’ve Been: Beckett And Lowell For Blalock And Danks
At the suggestion of several readers, I’m starting up a new feature here at MLBTR called What Might’ve Been. Basically we’ll look back at rumors and near-deals that did not end up happening, and consider how things would be if they had occurred.
Today’s near-rumor is from November 19th, 2005. That day, the Marlins nearly traded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Danks.
Let’s start with the Fish. They would never have received Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and others from Boston. Instead they would’ve gotten Blalock in ’06 and Blalock plus Danks in ’07. Some rough math using Baseball Prospectus’ WARP stat leads us to believe the Marlins would’ve had 11 fewer wins in ’06 and four fewer in ’07 if they made the Texas deal. Take those 11 wins in ’06 and spread them around the NL, maybe the Astros or even Reds win the Central instead of the Cards. Another consequence: Blalock at third might’ve meant Miguel Cabrera remained in left field. Maybe then Josh Willingham ends up catching, doesn’t get his opportunity, or gets traded.
Moving on to the Rangers. Swapping Blalock for Beckett and Lowell might’ve meant an extra eight wins in ’06 (again, rough math for the sake of the exercise). Eight more wins still probably doesn’t put the ’06 Rangers in the playoffs. Eleven marginal wins in ’07 with Beckett fronting their rotation and Lowell at third still wouldn’t have meant a playoff berth, even with an additional boost for not trading Mark Teixeira. In real life, Beckett signed a three-year extension in July of ’06. Maybe he wouldn’t have signed or been offered this by Jon Daniels. Under that scenario Beckett would’ve been a free agent this winter, snagging a massive 5-7 year deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or some other club. And would the Red Sox have been more active on Alex Rodriguez this winter if they’d never had Lowell? Moreso if they were not the ’07 World Champs?
Speaking of the Red Sox: say they just hung on to Ramirez and Sanchez, for simplicity’s sake. The Sox still would’ve traded Edgar Renteria and signed Alex Gonzalez before the ’06 season, but maybe Ramirez beats him out for the shortstop job. Best case scenario, Ramirez over Gonzalez in ’06 nets the Sox six wins. That’s at least negated by using Sanchez instead of Beckett and whoever instead of Lowell. The Sox still would’ve missed the playoffs in ’06 – even if they’d signed Roger Clemens or A.J. Burnett after failing to acquire Beckett.
The Beckett-less ’07 Red Sox would’ve probably reached the playoffs, given the huge boost in having Hanley instead of Julio Lugo. The Lugo signing never would’ve happened; maybe he ends up with the Cubs or Mets, who made offers in real life. Instead, the Red Sox might’ve tried to lure Aramis Ramirez or settled for Mark DeRosa as their ’07 third baseman. Do the Red Sox make it past the Indians in the ALCS without Beckett? Perhaps, if they had signed Burnett in the 2005-06 offseason and a decent third baseman in 2006-07.
By the way, the White Sox would not have been able to get Danks from the Marlins for Brandon McCarthy. Who knows what Kenny Williams does with McCarthy in this alternate reality.
I’m dizzy. Thoughts on the new feature, and any corrections on my speculation? Any juicy consequences I missed?
Odds and Ends: Reyes vs. Ramirez, Blanton, Colon
Let’s round up some random links for today…
- This is one of the more impressive rants I’ve heard. Seems that he lost his cool or something.
- Fantasy baseball shortstop smackdown: Jose Reyes vs. Hanley Ramirez.
- Ken Rosenthal says the Mariners inquired on Joe Blanton, but weren’t willing to trade Adam Jones within the division.
- Bartolo Colon is back in action for two more starts.