Cubs Info From Bruce Levine
Bruce Levine of ESPN 1000 has some new Cubs info for us. He reports that the Cubs have asked the Indians about a possible deal involving Cliff Lee or Jake Westbrook in exchange for relief pitching.
In addition, the Cubs may consider Ray Durham as a source of power for second base.
Available Starting Pitchers: The Horses
One very important aspect in a starting pitcher is the ability to go deep into games. Teams can avoid resorting to inferior middle relievers if the starter can consistently pitch seven innings.
Only two starters this year – Brandon Webb and Roy Halladay – are averaging seven innings per start. Neither of those guys will be available this winter. Let’s take a look at some starters who are available and can save bullpens.
Jason Schmidt, in addition to being one of the NL’s best this year, has averaged 6.83 innings per start. The 33 year-old is destined for one of the offseason’s biggest contracts; perhaps similar to the deal Pedro Martinez signed.
Roy Oswalt‘s name has been popping up in trade rumors. Oswalt has averaged 6.78 innings per start this year; he’ll turn 29 soon. Oswalt has been worked hard, throwing almost 270 innings last year and 256 the year before. We see how that type of workload has affected Mark Buehrle. Oswalt’s strikeout rate has slipped to a career low 6.2 per nine innings in 2006.
Dontrelle Willis could be made available by Florida. He’s 15th in baseball with 6.61 innings per start. The 24 year-old has been abused by Joe Girardi; he leads baseball in starts with 110-121 pitches (14). In case you’re curious, Carlos Zambrano leads in starts with 122-132 pitches (5).
Groundball specialist Jake Westbrook has also been mentioned in trade rumors, with the Diamondbacks surfacing as a possible suitor. Westbrook turns 29 in September and has increased his innings per start to 6.55 this season. Westbrook is underrated; he’ll make just $5.6MM next year and is a model of consistency and durability.
Diamondbacks Trade Rumor: Jake Westbrook
According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Diamondbacks are interested in acquiring Jake Westbrook. The 28 year-old righty is 5th in baseball with a 2.93 groundball/flyball ratio.
The leader, of course, is Brandon Webb at 3.15. Miguel Batista is also in the top 20. Perhaps Josh Byrnes plans on assembling a groundball-heavy pitching staff to match up with Orlando Hudson and the rest of his defensively sound infield.
If so, Byrnes could also target Cory Lidle now or in the offseason. Their reported interest in Dontrelle Willis fits into this agenda as well. I would guess that a deal for Willis or even Westbrook would require the inclusion of one of their top ten prospects. Westbrook was last seen in a trade rumor from January, when the Reds expressed interest.
Possible Kearns/Westbrook Swap
Reds interim GM Brad Kullman certainly seems more open-minded than his predecessor, Dan O’Brien. But one of O’Brien’s final non-moves may have been one of his few wise ones. Sheldon Ocker’s Beacon Journal article today reports that O’Brien turned down an Austin Kearns for Jake Westbrook all-Ohio trade prior to his firing.
Such a one for one trade would lean heavily towards the Indians, in my opinion. Here’s my reasoning.
The 25 year-old Kearns has yet to reach his potential, while Westbrook has topped out at age 28. Let’s look at 2005. In just 387 at-bats, Kearns was worth 3.6 wins. Westbrook was worth 3.8, but that was in a full season. Kullman has said that Kearns stands to get 550 ABs in 2006. If Kearns could maintain his .240/.333/.452 line and his defense over that many at-bats, he’d be a 5.1 win right fielder. That kind of production could make him the 8th best RF in the game, and I’m assuming no improvement.
However, it stands to reason that Kearns will indeed improve given the full-time job in ’06. My projection has him hitting .257 with 22 HR and 83 RBI in 486 at-bats this season. PECOTA sees an even bigger jump, to .275/.367/.510 in 459 plate appearances (21 HR). Bill James weighs in with .270/.363/.497 in 392 ABs, and ZiPS went with .258/.349/.480 in 431 ABs. PECOTA lists Pat Burrell and Dale Murphy among his comps. This is a player on the rise, and he makes $1.85MM.
Westbrook’s ability lies somewhere between his 3.38 ERA in 2004 and his 4.49 ERA last year. He’s a solid 210 inning guy, and an extreme groundball pitcher. Projections:
RotoAuthority: 3.98 ERA in 213 IP
PECOTA: 3.97 ERA in 199 IP
James: 3.91 ERA in 211 IP
ZiPS: 4.02 ERA in 195 IP
Wow. That’s as close to a consensus as four projection systems can get. But here’s the rub. In 2005, the Indians had the 3rd best defense in baseball. The Reds had the 3rd worst. Kullman might think he needs groundball pitchers to succeed in a park that inflates HRs by 16%, but that won’t work with a crappy defense. Westbrook does keep the ball in the park, but that’s only half the battle. The Reds need a guy who also misses bats. Westbrook’s $4.25MM salary for 2006 and $5.6MM option for ’07 are quite reasonable, however.
Some fine alternatives for the Reds would’ve been Josh Beckett and Esteban Loaiza. While neither would’ve come cheaply, both are built to succeed in Great American Ballpark. Out of possible remaining trade candidates, I think Matt Clement and Brad Penny could prosper as Reds. If the Dodgers were to send Jayson Werth elsewhere, it could open up some room for Kearns. The Red Sox would do well to groom a replacement for Trot Nixon.
Should the Indians add Kearns and Marte for Westbrook and Crisp this offseason, they’ll have improved their team while also making it younger and cheaper, a rare feat. What’s more, a Millwood-esque signing of Jeff Weaver could keep the starting rotation five-deep with 200 inning guys, a model perfected by the White Sox.