The Phillies’ Fifth Starter Possibilities
The Phillies had a bit of shuffling in the middle of their rotation this offseason. Each of Zach Eflin, Noah Syndergaard and Kyle Gibson went elsewhere in free agency. Philadelphia partially backfilled the starting staff by bringing Taijuan Walker aboard, but they focused the rest of their offseason attention on installing Trea Turner atop the lineup and stockpiling bullpen help.
Philadelphia has one of baseball’s best one-two punch atop the rotation in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Walker steps into the third or fourth role, pairing with southpaw Ranger Suárez in the middle. Losing Eflin and Gibson thins out the depth at the back end, leaving the Phils to rely on someone without much starting experience at the big league level in the #5 role.
Turning to those possibilities:
Some MLB Rotation Work
Falter, a 25-year-old lefty, made 16 starts out of 20 outings for the Phils last year. That came on the heels of a rookie campaign in which he was used almost exclusively out of the bullpen and posted a 5.61 ERA. Falter had a better run prevention mark last season, allowing just 3.86 earned runs per nine innings. Falter struck out a roughly average 21.2% of opponents and kept his walks to a sparkling 4.9% clip last season. His ground-ball percentage dropped from 36.1% as a rookie to 31.7%, though, and he surrendered home runs at a higher than average rate (1.71 per nine innings).
The former fifth-round pick has shown excellent control throughout his time in the minor leagues. He missed bats on a decent 11% of his MLB offerings last season. His strikeout and walk profile fits fine at the back of a contending rotation, though his fly-ball oriented approach could give him trouble in a very hitter-friendly home park. Falter doesn’t throw hard and gives up a fair amount of hard contact. That’s been a particular issue with right-handed hitters, who have a .266/.313/.486 line against him in his MLB career.
Sánchez, 26, only has four big league starts to his name. He’s come out of the bullpen 18 times at the MLB level and has logged 52 2/3 innings over the last two seasons. He owns a 5.47 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk marks (20.3% and 10.2%, respectively). On the plus side, he’s racked up grounders on a massive 56.4% of batted balls.
The 6’1″ hurler has spent the bulk of the last two years starting games for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He struggled with walks en route to a 4.68 ERA there in 2021 but had a much more productive showing last season. Over 57 1/3 innings spanning 15 appearances, the Dominican-born southpaw posted a 3.14 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout percentage, 8.4% walk rate and eye-opening 62% grounder percentage. While Sánchez hasn’t had much MLB success to date, he’s in the back of the rotation and/or long relief mix thanks to his quality Triple-A showing.
Top Prospects
Arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, Painter ranks among the sport’s top 15 minor league talents at Baseball America, ESPN and The Athletic. Armed with an upper-90s fastball, the 6’7″ righty also draws praise from evaluators for a pair of impressive breaking pitches in his slider and curveball. His changeup is viewed as a little behind the rest of his power arsenal but a promising fourth pitch in its own right.
The 13th overall pick in the 2021 draft out of a Florida high school, he traversed three minor league levels last season. In a year split between Low-A, High-A and Double-A, he threw 103 2/3 innings of 1.56 ERA ball, striking out a laughable 38.7% of opponents with just a 6.2% walk rate.
It’s hard to draw up a better first full pro season. Still, Painter won’t turn 20 until April, and he has just five late-season starts in Double-A and zero experience at the top minor league level. Carrying him on the MLB roster from day one would be a risk, though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said on a few occasions this offseason that it’s not out of the question (link via Andy Jasner of Sports Illustrated).
Abel was Philadelphia’s first-round selection the year before Painter. Also a high school righty, he’s likewise developed into one of the sport’s more talented young arms. Abel split last season between High-A and Double-A, also making just five starts at the latter level. He combined for a 3.90 ERA across 108 1/3 frames with a 27.6% strikeout rate but a 10.6% walk percentage. He’s a consensus top-100 talent but below Painter in the prospect hierarchy, with a little less velocity and a greater need to refine his control. Abel’s a very good prospect and could potentially put himself in the MLB mix midseason, but right now it doesn’t seem like he’ll get immediate consideration for an Opening Day rotation role. Of course, a standout spring performance could potentially change that.
McGarry, a Virginia product, was a fifth-round draftee in 2021. As a college player, he’s older than Painter and Abel. He spent most of the 2022 season as a starter at High-A and Double-A as well but got eight late-season relief outings at Lehigh Valley. McGarry combined for 87 1/3 innings of 3.71 ERA ball in his first full professional season. He punched out an enormous 35.7% of opponents but walked batters at a 14.6% clip. McGarry has had high-octane stuff but inconsistent control dating back to his time in college. He’s a well-regarded prospect in his own right and looks like a great find for the Phils in the fifth round, though he’d need a dramatic improvement in his strike-throwing to factor into the MLB rotation this year. A midseason bullpen debut might be more likely.
Minor League Depth
Acquired in a minor league trade that sent catcher Austin Wynns to the Giants last summer, Plassmeyer cracked the 40-man roster in August. He’d been hit hard in Triple-A with San Francisco but seemed to turn the corner in the Philadelphia organization. Over 16 starts for Lehigh Valley, the former fourth-round draftee posted a 2.41 ERA across 82 innings. He had some strand rate and BABIP help but also struck out 24.8% of opponents against a 7% walk rate. That’s enough to get Plassmeyer on the MLB radar, but he’d struggled significantly with walks and home runs on the road to a 7.38 ERA over 11 appearances with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate prior to the trade.
McArthur made 13 starts for Double-A Reading last season before suffering a stress reaction in his throwing elbow. He struck out a quarter of opponents at that level but issued walks at a higher than average 10% clip. Over 57 innings, he managed a 5.05 ERA in a hitter-friendly home environment. McArthur’s 26 and has still yet to reach Triple-A. That he’s still holding a 40-man roster spot suggests the Phils still like his upside, though he’d presumably need to earn an MLB look with a strong showing in Lehigh Valley and might fit better in the bullpen regardless.
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The Phillies figure to bring a few more arms to camp as non-roster Spring Training invitees. Philadelphia added Kyle Hart on a minor league deal this afternoon, while Hans Crouse remains in the organization after clearing outright waivers last November. It’s possible the front office looks for another starter with some MLB experience who’s willing to accept an NRI.
Unless the Phils surprisingly add Michael Wacha or pivot to the trade market, however, it’s unlikely anyone they bring in at this point would get an immediate MLB rotation job. The organization looks prepared to put a lot of faith in their highly-touted prospects, especially Painter. Whether that’ll be the case from day one is to be determined, with Falter and Sánchez in position to vie for key roles if the Phils determine more minor league time is necessary for their vaunted young arms.
Phillies Select Darick Hall
2:10pm: Philadelphia officially confirmed Hall’s promotion. Infielder Johan Camargo has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 26, with a right knee strain. To create a 40-man roster spot, the Phils recalled minor league righty James McArthur from Double-A Reading and placed him on the MLB 60-day injured list. McArthur, who’s dealing with a stress reaction in his throwing elbow, will be paid at the prorated amount of the $700K league minimum salary and collect big league service time while on the IL.
10:54am: The Phillies are planning to select the contract of first baseman Darick Hall from Triple-A Lehigh Valley, reports Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. They’ll need to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
It’ll be the big league debut for Hall, a 14th-round selection of the Phillies back in 2016. The 26-year-old has earned his ticket to the big leagues this season, hitting at a .269/.346/.548 clip with 20 home runs, 18 doubles, five steals (in six tries), a 9.5% walk rate and a 20% strikeout rate through his first 315 plate appearances of the season. Hall’s left-handed bat won’t make up for the loss of Harper, of course, but he’ll give interim skipper Rob Thomson another option with some power to mix-and-match while the reigning MVP is sidelined.
With Harper on the shelf, the Phillies are looking at several platoon options around the diamond, but their current slate of left-handed hitters hasn’t performed well — even against righties. Mickey Moniak is hitting .167/.259/.167 in 27 plate appearances, while Odubel Herrera is batting just .218/.248/.412 against right-handers. Hall, meanwhile, has struggled against lefties in Triple-A but absolutely torched right-handed opponents to the tune of a .312/.391/.656 batting line. Seventeen of his 20 long balls have come against righties, as have a dozen of his 18 doubles.
Phillies Claim Kent Emanuel From Astros, Select Three Players
The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve claimed lefty Kent Emanuel off waivers from the Astros and selected the contracts of three minor leaguers: infielder Luis Garcia, outfielder Jhailyn Ortiz and righty James McArthur. The Phils now have 36 players on their 40-man roster, and all of today’s additions are protected from the Rule 5 Draft.
Emanuel, 29, is a 2013 third-rounder who’d pitched to a 2.55 ERA with a 13-to-4K / BB ratio through his first 17 2/3 MLB innings. However, I have underwent a primary repair surgery on his left elbow back in June and missed the remainder of the season. Based on past primary repair cases, Emanuel could be reacy early in the 2022 season. That Emanuel’s debut campaign came at age 28 is in part due to the fact that a previous Tommy John surgery wiped out a good chunk of his 2015-16 campaigns.
Emanuel has also missed time with an 80-game PED suspension, though he’s among the growing number of players to raise issue following a positive test of trace amounts of DHCMT (seven picograms, in his case). The Wall Street Journal’s Jared Diamond explored the issue at length last year, and Emanuel himself posted an 11-minute video on Instagram discussing his bewilderment over the positive test. Many fans will be skeptical of any player claiming innocence following a positive PED test, but it’s certainly worth reading Diamond’s column and watching Emanuel’s video for those who didn’t track the story at the time.
Garcia, 21, ranked on the back end of Baseball America’s Top 100 list in the 2018-19 offseason but saw his stock crater after he posted a .516 OPS in 2019. After a lost minor league season in 2020, the switch-hitter bounced back to some extent in 2021, slashing .243/.353/.414 across two Class-A levels.
Ortiz was a headlining international signing by the Phillies back in 2015, landing a $4MM bonus on the strength of his plus raw power. Now 23 years of age, Ortiz slugged 19 long balls in just 303 plate appearances with Class-A Advanced before scuffling mightily in a tiny sample of 88 Double-A plate appearances. The Phils, not wanting to lose a slugger who’s received 70 grades on his raw power (on the 20-80 scale), will dedicate a 40-man spot to keep him.
McArthur, a 2018 12th-rounder, spent most of the season in Double-A, where he pitched to a 4.48 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 48.3% ground-ball rate. FanGraphs gives him a chance at three above-average pitches but feels there’s a good bit of work left to be done in terms of his command. With 78 innings of respectable Double-A work under his belt, McArthur could be in the mix for a big league look at some point in 2022, should injuries necessitate a dip into the upper levels of the farm system.