Santana Has Full No-Trade Clause
The fine Cot’s Baseball Contracts site indicates that Johan Santana only received full no-trade protection for 2008 if he finished top three in the Cy Young voting. However, I do not believe that is accurate.
There are multiple reports from good reporters with solid sourcing indicating that Santana has a full no-trade clause. There’s Kat O’Brien, Buster Olney, Michael Silverman, and Joe Christensen all saying it’s full. It’s safe to assume that Santana controls his own fate and can kill any deal. Perhaps he’d just want compensation to waive the clause, or perhaps he’d demand a record contract extension worth over $20MM per year.
Graziano On A Yankees/Santana Trade
Recently I asked the Newark Star-Ledger’s Dan Graziano about a realistic scenario under which the Yankees could acquire Johan Santana. His take was a bit different than the standard packages we’ve been hearing. The Yankees have already had talks with the Twins and are expected to make a strong offer.
MLBTR: Give us your take on a reasonable trade package for Johan Santana that the Yankees would consider offering and the Twins would consider accepting.
Dan Graziano: The Twins will need at least one good, proven, major-league player and a couple of prospects in exchange if they decide to deal Santana. Many people have suggested that the Yankees would need to include Robinson Cano in a deal, and that’s certainly possible. But the Twins have a
young player (Alexi Casilla) they believe can play second base, and their greater need may be in the outfield, especially with Torii Hunter now gone off to Anaheim.
To that end, Melky Cabrera might be more appealing to the Twins than Cano. Let’s assume the Yankees don’t want to include Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes in the deal (though Santana might be the only player for whom they’d consider dealing one of those guys), and that Brian Cashman also wants to hold onto Ian Kennedy. The next best pitcher in the Yankees’ system is probably Alan Horne. I’m thinking the Yankees could offer a package of Cabrera, Horne and outfield prospect Jose Tabata for Santana. That could be appealing to the Twins, though they might ask for a better pitcher than Horne (or another, such as Marquez, in addition to him), though it would depend on the packages being offered by other interested teams such as the Mets and Red Sox.
The thing to remember in dealing with the Twins, however, is that they might not always be after the prospects everybody knows about. The Twins pride themselves on being able to identify and acquire big-time prospects at the Class A level. Players who have come to the Twins’ system at the A-ball level over the years include Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford and Joe Mays, as well as Johan Santana himself and a skinny little hitter whose name at the time was David Arias but later changed his last name to Ortiz and went on to achieve some measure of fame with the Boston Red Sox.
Earlier this year, when the Mets and Twins were talking trade for Luis Castillo, we were trying to figure out who the Mets might have to give up. We were thinking of usual suspects like Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber, but the Twins ended up dealing Castillo for AA catcher Drew Butera and Class A outfielder Dustin Martin. These were guys I didn’t know much about, but I’m not going to be surprised if Dustin Martin ends up being a good big-leaguer someday. The Twins’ scouts can spot talent when it’s very young. So there may be some players in the Yankees’ system (and in those of other interested teams) that the Twins would like and we don’t even know about yet.
Heyman: Twins Only Offered Santana Four Years
Update: Joe Christensen clears things up. The original report of five years, $93 million was essentially a four year extension at $20 million per. The extra year and $13 million will be what Santana makes in 2008.
Contrary to what’s been reported, John Heyman of SI reports that the Twins offered Johan Santana just four years, not the previously reported five. The offer was reportedly worth $80 million, which puts it short of the five years and $93 million we’d been hearing since last weekend. It would exceed that offer, though, in terms of average annual value.
Heyman speculates that the Twins and Santana could be $50 million or more apart, increasing the likelihood that the left-handed ace will be dealt, possibly as soon as the Winter Meetings, which begin December 3rd. Just judging from past Winter Meetings, I’d find it surprising if a team was able to broker such a deal that week. If we’re going to see Santana traded, it might take some more time.
From there, Heyman lists the teams we’ve all heard a thousand times as suitors for Santana: Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers. And he also lists their trade chips, which we’ve also heard plenty of times before.
My take is that the Twins won’t accept anything less than two elite prospects and another one or two slightly lesser, but still high-profile talents. The teams with the best hitters might win out, since the Twins are stocked with pitching.
Should an acceptable offer not emerge, the Twins could head into the season with a rotation of Santana, Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, and Kevin Slowey. Glenn Perkins is another option, should one of the bottom two prove ineffective or become injured. That rotation would be among the tops in the AL, and would probably help the Twins contend in 2008. However, they’re certainly going to need another bat or two. We’ve seen reports that Garza could be shopped with those intentions.
Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.
Santana Counters Twins’ Offer
Sid Hartman was correct – Joe Christensen confirms today that the Twins did offer Johan Santana a five-year, $93MM deal (18.6MM annually). The pact was designed to top Carlos Zambrano‘s by $1.5MM. Problem is that Santana isn’t 1.6% better than Zambrano. He’s a lot better than Z.
Santana countered by asking for $126MM, according to Christensen. His article implies that Santana asked for seven years in the counterproposal, since Santana’s agent cited Barry Zito‘s deal and the dollar amount is the same. The Twins balked at the counteroffer and expect to trade Santana. This doesn’t compute, because the sides seem close. I wonder – maybe Santana actually asked for $126MM over five years? Santana could be a $25MM man on the open market, and maybe he’s not offering a hometown discount. If Christensen’s source told him the number of years, he would’ve put that in the article.
Michael Silverman notes that the Red Sox will certainly be involved if the Twins start entertaining offers. An offer of Coco Crisp, Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester, and a third solid prospect might be their proposal. Seems that the Yanks might offer Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes, while the Mets would start with Carlos Gomez.
Christensen’s article also adds that the Twins recently swapped contract proposals with closer Joe Nathan. Even at a discount Nathan would have to ask for four years, $40MM.
Stark’s Latest: Santana, Hamilton, Snell
Ah, a new Rumblings and Grumblings from Jayson Stark. Let’s dig in.
- It sounds like the Yankees would discuss Phil Hughes and the Red Sox might part with one of Ellsbury/Lester/Buchholz to acquire Johan Santana. The acquiring team would need an extension window though. The Mets are in on Santana big-time and would have to give up Carlos Gomez and then some. If the Twins do trade Santana, they would probably hang onto Matt Garza. But otherwise Garza could be traded for a young hitter, as we’ve been hearing.
- The Fish want four 0-3 players for Miguel Cabrera, pretty much the names we’ve been tossing around here at MLBTR for a while.
- The Marlins would ask for two 0-3 guys for Dontrelle Willis, but aren’t inclined to trade him unless they’re blown away. Stark names the Mets, Mariners, and D’Backs as suitors. So think Gomez, Adam Jones, or Carlos Gonzalez.
- The Orioles and Cardinals don’t want to eat any money on Miguel Tejada and Scott Rolen, respectively. The Cards were asking for too much from the Yanks for Rolen – one of their top three young pitchers (you know the trio).
- The Reds are willing to trade Ryan Freel or Josh Hamilton to clear space for Jay Bruce.
- Ian Snell could be available. It’s not the first time his name has appeared in the rumor mill. Hell, Snell for Hamilton kind of makes sense.
Lowell Signs With Red Sox
UPDATE: ESPN reports that the deal is for $37.5MM, so $12.5MM per year. Lowell took more than $10MM less to stay with Boston.
UPDATE: Rob Bradford says the Red Sox and Lowell have agreed to the parameters of a three-year deal worth between $12-13MM annually. The Sox had set a deadline today for Lowell to decide on their offer, and he took them up on it.
Buster Olney is reporting in his blog this morning that Mike Lowell is close to a three-year deal with the Red Sox. That has to mean he’s leaving a significant amount of money on the table to re-sign. Can’t see the Sox going past 3/45 on him. There is a conflicting report on this – Rob Bradford doesn’t think a deal is close, noting a "healthy divide" between the sides.
Olney adds that aside from the near-obligatory Coco Crisp trade, the Red Sox will look into Johan Santana if he becomes available. Santana would obviously be a luxury. Since the Red Sox are officially a superpower, they’d have to check in on him. Also keep in mind that Crisp and Santana trades could be related, as the Twins would likely demand Jacoby Ellsbury in any deal. So if Crisp is dealt, Santana becomes a bit less likely. Of course Theo could always surprise us and convince Andruw Jones to sign a one-year deal.
Unconfirmed: Twins Made Offer To Santana
Sid Hartman has a tidbit towards the end of his column today: The Twins have made a five-year, $93 million offer for Johan Santana. The source of this is not the Twins, but rather Hartman hearing "word in baseball circles." The $18.6 million average annual value would surpass that of Barry Zito, though Zito’s deal was for seven years.
Santana is entering his age 29 season in 2008, so this contract would keep him locked up through age 35.
While Johan could probably do better on the open market, if he really wants to stay in Minnesota, he should consider this offer — that is, if this offer actually exists. As a free agent, he could likely command seven years and north of $20 million annually.
Please note that the following is just me throwing numbers out there, and that I don’t necessarily think that Santana is in some kind of decline. But his batting average, OBP, and SLG against have risen from year to year since 2004. He also gave us a career-high 33 homers in 2007 in 219 innings, his lowest total since he was split between the rotation and bullpen in 2003. His WHIP also broke 1.00 for the first time since 2003 (oh, heavens no, not above 1.00!).
The Red Sox, Dodgers, and Yankees have been the most actively linked to Santana, but every team likely has some level of interest in trading for the two-time Cy Young winner.
Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.
Odds and Ends: Kuroda, Hunter, Crede
What’d I miss recently? Here are some odds and ends.
- The Tigers have expressed interest in Hiroki Kuroda. They join the Phillies, Mariners, Dodgers, Royals, Rangers, Cubs, and Mets in that pursuit.
- 10 teams are interested in Aaron Rowand! That’s almost 1/3 of all baseball teams!
- Torii Hunter is after a seven-year deal. Most feel he’s saying that because he wants six. Clever!
- The Twins are taking a look at Tony Clark as a cheap DH option. He’s supposedly looking for something like two years, $4MM and more playing time. This would be a very Twins-like signing.
- T.R. Sullivan has a Rangers update. Apparently Jon Daniels is checking in on big names like Johan Santana, Erik Bedard, and Miguel Cabrera. More realistically Daniels may go out to Japan for players such as Kosuke Fukudome and Hiroki Kuroda (we knew that already). We also knew the Rangers had Kerry Wood and Eric Gagne on their radar. Sullivan speculates that Scott Linebrink and LaTroy Hawkins could also be in the mix.
- Barry Rozner expects Joe Crede to be traded. It seems like Crede is a Plan B or C for a lot of teams and Kenny Williams may have to wait til a few dominoes fall first.
Cafardo’s Latest: Crawford, Haren
The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo has a new colum up this morning; let’s check it out.
- The Carl Crawford/Cubs thing won’t die. Cafardo says the Cubs are after him, possibly offering a package starting with Rich Hill and Carlos Marmol. This rumor originated with Bruce Levine a few days ago, though Roger Mooney dismissed it yesterday.
- While the Red Sox have discussed Miguel Cabrera with the Marlins, Cafardo believes they might instead be eyeing a blockbuster for Johan Santana or Dan Haren. As if the Red Sox need more pitching.
Odds and Ends: Clark, Izturis, Clemens
First day for teams to negotiate with free agents, always a good time. Here are today’s odds and ends.
- Jeff Blair notes that one athlete may still be better paid than Alex Rodriguez: Kimi Raikkonen, a Formula One driver, earns $51MM per year. No need to debate on whether race car drivers should be considered athletes, I just thought it was interesting.
- The D’Backs don’t figure to spend much on free agents, because they’re a smart team. Tony Clark wants two years, $4MM, and the team is thinking it over.
- The Bucs will probably hold onto Jack Wilson this winter, as they’re cutting Cesar Izturis loose rather than pay him $5.45MM. The Cardinals have interest in Izturis, by the way.
- Confirming what we already knew: the Yankees will pursue Mike Lowell and Johan Santana.
- Marty York has a source saying the Blue Jays might pursue Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. Say what?
- Doug Melvin isn’t planning on moving Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun from third base unless the Brewers acquire another "legitimate, bona fide third baseman."
- Mark Gonzales notes that the White Sox tried to acquire Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel in 2006, implying that Kenny Williams might go after one of them now. Linebrink is going to be a costly sign, as he’s a Type A and I imagine the Brewers will offer him arbitration.
- Scott Gregor places odds on various center field possibilities for the White Sox. He thinks they have a decent chance of trading for Coco Crisp.