Mariners Searching For Starters
John Hickey has an update on the Mariners’ starting pitching targets. The options look grim.
As far as trade targets, there’s always Johan Santana and Dontrelle Willis. The Mariners have long had their eye on Dontrelle, so maybe they’d offer a Wladimir Balentien/Jeff Clement package.
Carlos Silva might be on the radar, but Hickey says the vibe is that he could get north of $12MM per season. A better deal might be Hiroki Kuroda, who is estimated to earn $7-9MM annually by Hickey. The Mariners may have the edge on Kuroda because of their location and Japanese catcher. I keep reading that Kuroda throws in the mid-90s…forgive me if I’m skeptical.
Hickey notes that Bartolo Colon might also be on the radar, and implies that they could pick up Carl Pavano on a whim if he’s released.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Cabrera, Haren, Barrett
Rumor guru Ken Rosenthal checks in with a new column this afternoon.
- The White Sox are legitimately in the mix for Miguel Cabrera, but many stars would have to align for it to get done. Suitors with better prospects would have to balk, and the Sox would have to part with Josh Fields and Gio Gonzalez. Kenny Williams might even have to cash Jon Garland in and turn around and flip that prospect in a Cabrera deal. Regardless, it’s clear that Williams is once again thinking big.
- Let’s face it: the Twins aren’t retaining free agents Torii Hunter or Carlos Silva. You gotta know when to fold ’em – maybe it’s best to punt 2008 and trade both Johan Santana and Joe Nathan now. Rosenthal says that philosophy is gaining some steam in the organization. Both Santana and Nathan are only under contract for one year, but both are signed well below market prices. That means that any mildly competitive team could entertain the notion of acquiring one of them for a big boost. Baseball Prospectus values Santana at $25MM and 8.1 wins next year (he earns $13.25MM). They put Nathan at $15MM and 6 wins (he earns $6MM).
- The A’s are another team that could take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Billy Beane has Joe Blanton and Dan Haren, two solid young pitchers each under team control for three seasons. That’s a big advantage over the other frontline names who might be available. Santana and A.J. Burnett have one year. Jake Peavy and Erik Bedard have two. Haren for three years is huge. Blanton is under team control but Haren is actually under contract.
- The Rays have gotten in touch with Michael Barrett‘s people. Will Barrett’s Type A status become an issue? Only if the Padres dare offer him arbitration. If I had to guess I’d say they won’t offer, but it’s a close call. Troy E. Renck recently mentioned Barrett has drawn interest from six clubs, perhaps including the Rockies and Marlins. I’m sure the Rockies would not give up their #25 overall pick to the Padres just to sign Barrett. The Marlins’ sixth overall pick next year is protected.
Yankees May Require Cano For Santana
How about Ken Davidoff this winter? The Newsday reporter has been digging up some great hot stove rumors so far. Today, he has some new info about Johan Santana.
While Santana isn’t up for bidding quite yet, he should be soon after the Twins make their token offer. The Yankees will certainly be in on him. Davidoff says a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and a prospect wouldn’t cut it, even though those players are very valuable. The Twins are one of few teams that actually feel good about their pitching, so the focus is on acquiring a star position player. With that in mind, they’d demand Robinson Cano from the Yankees. Cano is more expensive than a Hughes or Cabrera, but the Twins would free up $13MM by dealing Santana. Plus you have to think Cano would be better for public relations/damage control.
Random speculation on players the Twins might covet for Santana: Josh Hamilton, Chris Young of Arizona, Jacoby Ellsbury, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, or Garrett Atkins.
In contrast to all of this, Ken Rosenthal speculates that the Twins would want "elite pitching" in return for Santana.
Twins Willing To Trade Garza
Terry Ryan hung on to his fine corral of young pitchers, and it’s hard to find fault with that. However, new GM Bill Smith is open to dealing one of them for a high impact young hitter.
Specifically, Joe Christensen says the Twins are willing to move 24 year-old Matt Garza, who posted a 3.69 ERA this year. The price would be huge – the names the Twins have in mind are Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, and Carlos Gomez. Upton, a favorite of theirs, seems like the least available of the three. Marc Topkin agrees that a Young-Garza rumor has been floating around.
If the Twins want to make a lesser deal, teams have also been asking about Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker. But those two aren’t chopped liver, and Rocco Baldelli doesn’t seem like enough. The Padres want in on the young pitchers, but aren’t willing to give up third baseman Chase Headley.
There’s also word in Christensen’s article that the Twins haven’t heard back from Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva regarding their weak offers. A more legitimate effort will be made to re-sign Johan Santana.
Rays’ Kazmir May Be Available
The week in hot stove kicks off with a bang: Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a source saying the Devil Rays might listen to offers for ace lefty Scott Kazmir. Kazmir turns 24 in January and carries a 3.64 career ERA despite pitching in the AL East. He’s been particularly tough on the Red Sox (2.66 ERA in 101 innings). You have to think that if the Yankees are entertaining making an offer for Johan Santana, they’d consider Kazmir as well if the Rays would deal within the division.
Sherman notes that Kazmir is under contract for three years as opposed to just one for Santana, which could equate the two pitchers in the marketplace. Erik Bedard, under control for two years, has to be in that group of elite, possibly available southpaws as well. Sherman believes the Rays would seek "multiple high-end pitchers" for Kazmir, who is entering arbitration for the first time this winter. The Yankees could offer a package starting with Phil Hughes, but the Mets don’t seem to have the goods. It would take a pitcher of that nature – Hughes, Yovani Gallardo, Clay Buchholz. Otherwise, why would the Rays consider it?
Sherman also echoes the surprising notion that Tim Lincecum could be had for the right bat. He speculates that the Giants could pursue Carl Crawford or Delmon Young as the return. Hey, our Delmon speculation is catching on!
Sherman indicates that the Twins may be compelled to hold onto Santana, afraid of fan backlash if they also lose Torii Hunter. Meanwhile, another Santana, Ervin, might be had for a bat if the Angels can’t sign Alex Rodriguez. Sherman’s sources say any club in the A-Rod sweepstakes will move slowly in the market because his contract would dictate the team’s available budget.
Also notable from Sherman’s rumor-packed column: teams may wait for the Mitchell Report to come out before engaging in serious talks for Miguel Tejada. I’ve read speculation that MLB could release this report soon as a way of limiting free agent spending. Also, isn’t it about time for Jose Canseco’s next book, which supposedly has "other stuff" on Alex Rodriguez?
Twins Rumors: Hunter, Silva, Slowey
A couple of Minnesota writers offered speculation today on the Twins’ plans. Let’s discuss.
- La Velle E. Neal III expects Torii Hunter to file for free agency today. Meanwhile Ed Thoma sees the White Sox, Rangers, and Cubs as the top contenders.
- Neal likes the idea of trading for Coco Crisp to play center for the Twins. Personally I would search for a more offensive-minded guy, but as Neal says Crisp could work if big improvements are made at 3B and DH. Thoma expects the Twins to fill this void by trading Boof Bonser or Kevin Slowey, with the Mets, Rays, Reds, and D’Backs as possibilities. That seems to imply a deal for Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, Rocco Baldelli, Ken Griffey Jr., or Carlos Gonzalez. Actually Griffey seems unlikely…Ryan Freel maybe? You tell me.
- Thoma also predicts that the Twins extend Johan Santana for 5/100.
Odds and Ends
How about some Odds and Ends to kick off Hump Day?
- Peter Abraham doesn’t think it would make sense for the Twins to acquire Chien-Ming Wang (presumably in a Johan Santana trade). His reasoning: Wang’s sinker would suffer on turf, and his salary is due to climb via arbitration.
- The Indians have decisions due on Kenny Lofton, Trot Nixon, Paul Byrd, Joe Borowski, and Aaron Fultz. The first two will probably be gone.
- My projection for Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 is up over at RotoAuthority.
- Say Anything’s new album came out yesterday. Highly recommended.
- We sold our condo! Literally in less than one week after hiring a real estate agent, we had a contract. Maybe they’re not so bad after all.
Santana for Melky, Hughes, and Prospect?
Tim recently posted about the Yanks inquiries into the Twins organization for Johan Santana. Peter Abraham shares what he’s heard of the rumors for the lefty ace.
Melky Cabrera would give Minnesota a center fielder to replace Torii Hunter if he bolts. The Yankees could then offer the Twins Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy along with a second prospect.
If Melky and Kennedy plus a prospect can land Santana, I can’t see why the Yankees wouldn’t do that, even if only for the opportunity to get a leg up on signing baseball’s best pitcher to a long term deal. But I would assume it would take a lot more. Lots of names are being tossed around along with Philip Hughes, particularly Robinson Cano, names that are most likely the premium the Twins would demand and perhaps a deal-breaker for the Yankees.
Posted by Nat Boyle
Yanks To Pursue Rowand?
A source of mine with Yankee connections had some good info for me today. Much was discussed yesterday in Tampa.
For starters, the Yanks are expected to make "eye-popping" offers to retain Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera before the World Series ends. The team does not want the pair to file for free agency.
Additionally, the Yankees may make a big play for Aaron Rowand. They believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana. That’s a huge price, but doesn’t seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.
My source didn’t have anything about Andy Pettitte, who hated seeing Joe Torre go and will take a month to decide if he’s even going to play next year.
More Mariners Info
I just learned that Larry LaRue of the Tacoma News Tribune has his own blog. Here’s some recent info from him to complement our Mariners Needs and Luxuries post.
- Regarding that starter they need to add this winter…how about Johan Santana? LaRue had a post a couple of weeks ago indicating the Twins have scouted the Mariners and would start the discussion with Adam Jones. With a negotiating window, it’s something the Ms would have to consider. Santana and Felix Hernandez fronting the rotation would get all of Venezuela tuning in for 40% of Mariners games.
- LaRue seemingly takes a shot at Jayson Stark, saying that Stark’s note about a team claiming Richie Sexson and the Mariners pulling him back was false. LaRue probably did not realize the rumor started with a respected baseball writer.