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Johan Santana

Hunter Would Take 5/75 From Twins

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Out on the open market, center fielder Torii Hunter might fish for more than a five-year, $75MM contract.  He could probably get six years, or $16-17MM annually.  However, 5/75 would be sufficient from the Twins, as Hunter hopes to remain in Minnesota.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman (linked above) says re-signing Hunter at that price and trading Johan Santana would probably leave the Twins with the payroll flexibility to acquire a third baseman and a DH.  Hunter’s departure could seemingly impact ticket sales in Minnesota more than Santana’s.

Santana is on the hook for $13.25MM in 2008.  Swapping him for two 0-3 players while backloading Hunter’s deal and letting Carlos Silva walk could free up $15MM net this winter.  That could mean Barry Bonds and Mike Lamb, Cliff Floyd and Mike Lowell, or a million other combinations.

Gammons: Yanks Inquired On Santana

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Peter Gammons reported back on Tuesday that the Yankees have already made a Johan Santana inquiry.  The tidbit mentioned a cellphone conversation where apparently a Yankee exec asked who the team would need to part with aside from Chien-Ming Wang to acquire the Twins’ ace.

Makes sense that the Yanks would place a call on this; Santana’s the best pitcher in baseball and they’re the Yankees.  And the general vibe seems to be that the Twins are at least listening on Santana.  Wang or Cano plus another premium prospect seems a reasonable bounty.  The acquiring team may require a negotiating window.  And technically, Santana could have the Yankees on his 12-team no trade list. 

Heyman’s Latest

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman has a new column up, with some minor info.

  • Heyman’s sources describe a Jose Reyes for Johan Santana rumor as "pure fantasy."  Well…who said it was ever anything more?  Buster Olney was clearly just playing Let’s Make A Deal when he devised it.  Things get twisted around easily.
  • Most of us already figured this, but Heyman says the White Sox will go after either Aaron Rowand or Torii Hunter this winter. 
  • Heyman puts the Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, Mets, and Phillies into the A-Rod derby if the Yanks don’t keep him.
  • No offense to Jon but this column really lacked any kind of new info.

Santana Would Consider Waiving No-Trade Rights

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Johan Santana gets a full no-trade clause for 2008 if he finishes top three in the Cy Young voting this year.  In 2007 Santana was fifth in VORP and doesn’t even crack the top ten in ESPN’s Cy Predictor.  Though I have to question the validity of any tool that puts Joe Borowski ninth.

Anyway, mostly because of the Twins missing the playoffs, it’s safe to say that Santana will not finish in the top three.  Instead, he gets to choose 12 teams he cannot be traded to.  As Nat Boyle recently noted, Santana could theoretically strategically select the 12 teams most likely to trade for him if he really wanted to stay in Minnesota for one more season.

That doesn’t seem likely, however.  Based on this article from La Velle E. Neal III, Santana would likely give up his no-trade protection if A) the acquiring team was a contender and B) he was compensated $1-2MM to give up his rights.

All we’ve really seen so far is a questionable Matt Kemp/Clayton Kershaw rumor that doesn’t make it past my reality checker.  We’ve also got Charley Walters saying there’s "little doubt" the Mets will pursue Santana, for what that’s worth.  Buster Olney tosses out a Jose Reyes/Carlos Gomez/Mike Pelfrey for Santana and Jason Bartlett proposal.  It doesn’t sound like any true trade discussions have leaked to the press yet.  I wouldn’t expect things to get going until the Winter Meetings December 3-6 in Nashville. 

Sunday Morning Santana

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the names being thrown around for Johan Santana.  As well as the Kemp/Kershaw for Santana, Cafardo quotes an AL Executive:

One AL executive theorized, "There are a few teams who could match up with the Twins. Would the Yankees deal Melky Cabrera and an Ian Kennedy for Santana? How about Boston? Would they send a Clay Buchholz and a Jacoby Ellsbury for him? The Mets? There are few teams who could handle the paycheck you’d have to give Santana and also be able to part with key prospects."

If that logic is correct, it narrows the list of suitors considerably.

MLBTR readers made the astute point in the Kemp/Kershaw comments that if a team is going to give up two Major League-ready prospects, the deal would be contingent on a re-signing of Santana.  A one year rental is most likely not going to appeal to any GM handing over otherwise untouchable commodities such as a Buchholz/Ellsbury or a Kennedy/Cabrera or a Kemp/Kershaw.

Which teams, therefore, can afford the likes of baseball’s best starting pitcher?

Here’s an intriguing twist.  As most already know, it’s safe to assume Santana will not finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this year and therefore will not be gaining his no-trade clause for 2008.  However, he still gets to choose up to 12 teams to which he can’t be traded.  If for some reason he didn’t want to leave the Twins next season, could he strategically choose every team capable of dealing for him? 

Despite not having a no-trade clause, it’s safe to note Santana will have considerable say in any deal.

 

Posted by: Nat Boyle

Kemp/Kershaw for Santana

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Well it’s what I call an "official possibility" now.  In his ESPN.com chat yesterday afternoon, Jonah Keri of Page 2 confirmed the Johan Santana for Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw rumor that’s been generating a lot of buzz here at MLBTR.  Let’s discuss, shall we? 

Kemp and Kershaw both have 6 years before they reach free agency.  Santana has 1.  There’s the obvious red flag right there, Dodgers fans.  But if Los Angeles GM Ned Colletti wants to win now, and he usually does, Santana could be the golden ticket.  I shudder to think of how dominant Santana could be not only in the NL but also in Dodgers Stadium.

If you’re the Twins, and you know you can’t afford Santana, I think this is a no-brainer.   Especially if (big if) you think you have Francisco Liriano returning to form.

The question remains:  Is an ace like Johan what the Dodgers need to win?  I’m not so sure.  They’re rotation has been solidified by the emergence of Chad Billingsley.  With a scrapheap lineup of Gonzo, Nomar, and Pierre, Matt Kemp could become their best hitter as early as… tonight.

 

Posted By: Nat Boyle

Johan Santana To Buy Home Near Minneapolis

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Now that’s a headline for a slow news evening.  I’d say slow news day, but Ed Wade was hired and that was something to talk about.  Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says Johan Santana will soon close on a pricey new home not far from the Twins’ ballpark.  Word is that Santana strongly considered buying an awesome one-bedroom condo in Lombard, IL but ultimately changed his mind.

I had a little bit too much fun with Google Maps today…here’s a look at Johan’s 23 mile commute to work, whether it’s the Metrodome or the new ballpark in 2010.  Does the purchase imply that Santana will take a huge discount to stay with the Twins when his contract expires after the 2008 season?  Not really.  Athlete real estate purchases are overrated; a couple mil to an athlete is nothing.  The house isn’t going to compel Santana to sign a below market deal if he otherwise wouldn’t.

Walters On Morneau, Santana, Nathan

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has some Twins rumors for us today in his Don’t Print That feature.

  • Walters says Justin Morneau would be agreeable to a six-year contract if the Twins are interested.  Walters wrote back in March that the Twins were looking to add a fifth option year to Morneau’s contract at $14MM.  Morneau thought a deal was "pretty close" at that time but of course it hasn’t happened.  By my calculations a six-year contract would buy out three years of free agency.  So it wouldn’t be anything like Joe Mauer’s 4/33 deal.
  • The Twins are expected to make a five-year offer to Johan Santana but they might have to go to six to get something done.  Santana gets a full no-trade clause for 2008 if he finishes top three in the Cy Young voting this year.  Otherwise he can choose 12 teams he can’t be traded to.
  • Walters thinks there’s no chance Joe Nathan stays with the Twins past 2008.  Nathan did have some positive talks with the Twins back in April.

Olney On Johan Santana

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ESPN’s Buster Olney kicks off his blog today with his thoughts on Johan Santana.  Fresh off a team-record 17 strikeout performance, Santana is a hot topic around baseball.  Olney believes Santana trade talk could dominate the offseason.  It might be a hell of a winter if Alex Rodriguez hits the open market (though that seems unlikely). 

Olney feels that the Twins would be best off trading Santana this winter if they don’t sign him.  Studs like Jered Weaver, Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, and Andrew Miller could suddenly lose untouchable status if Santana is in play.  There’s no arguing that an established, MLB-ready young pitcher like the above-mentioned four is worth significantly more than the two draft picks the Twins could receive after ’08 for letting Johan walk.  Terry Ryan would need to acquire a valuable young position player as well, I imagine.

Olney notes that the Twins have made such a deal before with the Chuck Knoblauch trade in February of ’98.  The Twins received Eric Milton, Cristian Guzman, Brian Buchanan, and cash back then.  They’d do significantly better this time.

I know a lot of folks think the Mets can pull this off, but I don’t know that they have the right mix of players.  Here’s my stab at a Santana bounty: Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and Jonathan Meloan.  Reasonable?  Ridiculous?  Leave your most reasonable proposal in the comments, maybe we’ll vote on the best.  And if your favorite team isn’t a great fit, don’t try to force it!   

Does Johan Santana Want Out?

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Johan Santana’s comments yesterday caused a stir.  He was upset that the Twins made no acquisitions, and doesn’t seem to think management is trying to win.  It certainly sounds like he wants out or expects to leave.

Does that mean it’s time to start up the rumor mill for all of the large-market teams looking for pitching this winter?  I don’t think so.  It sounds like Santana would waive his no-trade clause, but would the Twins really trade him?  Trading the best pitcher in baseball is a huge concession no matter what the return, and I can’t see the Twins giving up on 2008.

More likely they’ll make their usual patchwork acquisitions this winter.  Maybe make a lowball contract offer to Santana before the season starts, and then watch him leave for the biggest payday a pitcher has ever seen.

Of course, it’s still fun to speculate.  It would be cool to see a stacked team like the Devil Rays or Diamondbacks to make a run at him this winter instead of the usual Yankees, Red Sox, etc.

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