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Johan Santana

Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Wheeler, Izzy

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Ken Rosenthal posted a new column last night, and has updated it very recently.  I’ve already spoken about the Teixeira stuff, but there’s other good material in there too.

  • Some of the wilder speculation out there has been that the Twins might trade Torii Hunter or Johan Santana if they decide they’re out of it.  Various Baseball Prospectus reports put the Twins’ playoff chances between 5-10%.  Rosenthal debunks the idea that Minnesota would shop Hunter without first making him an offer, and keeping Santana for at least 2008 makes sense.  Plus, Santana has a no-trade clause. 
  • Rosenthal does have some Twins for us who might be traded: Luis Castillo and Carlos Silva.  Castillo has already been connected to the Mets in rumors, though Silva is a new one.  One could definitely envision Silva’s style working in the National League (I know, I say that a lot).  There was a recent Silva to Atlanta rumor, though Silva’s agent seems to have debunked it.
  • Rosenthal says Dontrelle Willis is not available.  Perhaps he and Tim Brown will engage in fisticuffs over this disagreement. 
  • The Diamondbacks have kicked the tires on Adam Dunn.  He might make sense as a rental – the D’Backs playoff changes sit between 16-27%, worth fighting for.  No doubt they’ve got a stable of young players to offer.
  • Rosenthal says the Astros have yet to receive interest on the Lidge/Wheeler/Qualls troika, while Jayson Stark said yesterday that the Astros hadn’t opened shop on them.  Thunderdome match #2, Rosenthal vs. Stark.  Assuming Ken survives Tim Brown.  Anyway, word is that the Rockies have their eye on Wheeler. 
  • Parties interested in Zack Greinke: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs.  This gels with Dan Graziano’s findings.  Of course, trading a player like Greinke requires an equally talented youngster in return.
  • The Royals may not be able to do better than Cleveland’s Ben Francisco as a bounty for Octavio Dotel.  More on him in a separate post.
  • Trades of Joe Blanton and Huston Street are "highly unlikely."  So you’re saying there’s a chance?
  • The chances of the Cardinals trading Jason Isringhausen are described as "remote."  The Cards would have a hard time replacing him next year; he’s got a reasonable $8MM option.  He also has no-trade protection, so he’d probably want a better extension if he was to accept a trade.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Santana, Glaus

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up, dealing more in speculation that actual rumors.  Nothing wrong with that.

  • Rosenthal as well as Barry Bonds’s agent believe the Giants will retain him for the 2008 season.  However, Brian Sabean could begin to rebuild nonetheless.  The patchwork aging veteran approach of 2007 need not be repeated.
  • It would be interesting to see what Terry Ryan could get if he made an uncharacteristically bold move by trading Johan Santana this summer.  He would be able to get one or two of the very best young players in the game.  Keep in mind, though, that Santana has a full no-trade clause this year.  He gets the same for ’08 with a top three Cy Young finish this year.  Santana wants to stay in Minnesota, and would offer a hometown discount.
  • Rosenthal speculates that if J.P. Ricciardi would deal within the division, maybe the Yankees could get Troy Glaus as A-Rod insurance.  Glaus could play first base for the remainder of this season.  Ricciardi isn’t shopping Glaus though; he said he’d need to be knocked over to break up the core lineup.  That would mean one of the Yankees’ much-hyped pitching prospects (not Hughes, but something good). 

Santana Wants 8 Years?

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I am not sure about this rumor, but thought I’d put it out here for debate.

Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune writes:

"Before contract talks broke off between Johan Santana and the Twins, baseball’s best pitcher is believed to have had put the team on notice that he wants a contract at least as long as Barry Zito’s eight-year deal with San Francisco."

Rogers does not specifically name a source on that statement, and follows it with Santana’s recent quote about hoping to remain a Twin for life.  I don’t know if the Zito reference is Rogers’ interpretation of Santana’s Minneapolis Tribune quote, or a new piece of information.  I have a feeling Santana might be amenable to a six or seven year contract from the Twins.

As far as the idea of trading Torii Hunter or Santana before they reach free agency, no-trade clauses could complicate matters.  Santana has a full no-trade if he places top three in this year’s Cy Young voting, which seems likely based on the past three seasons.  Hunter can block deals to the Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, Devil Rays, and Blue Jays this year.  Boston is the one team I could see having a spot for him this summer out of that group.   

Twins Make Weak Offer To Santana

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According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the Twins recently offered Johan Santana a two-year extension for $36MM plus a club option for 2011.  I know you have to start somewhere with negotiations, but the Twins could essentially double their offer and it would still be well below market value. 

Heyman mentions that Santana has informed the Twins that he won’t negotiate again until he hits the open market after the 2008 season.  Maybe Santana made that assertion because he felt insulted by the team’s lowball offer.

If the Twins are that far apart from an extension with Santana, they might want to consider trading him sometime between now and July 31st, 2008.  Don’t forget, however, that Santana has a full no-trade clause this year and a good shot at one for ’08.

Some have suggested that Santana will become baseball’s first $200MM pitcher; clearly a deal won’t get done with less than $100MM being committed.  People keep reporting that Santana will become a free agent at age 29, which is technically true, but he will be 30 on Opening Day 2009.

UPDATE: Not so fast, said Santana today.  He says he hasn’t received an offer from the Twins, but the sooner the better if the Twins want to break their "no negotiations in-season policy."  A report four days ago indicated the Twins will ignore that policy for Santana.

Twins Will Negotiate In-Season

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La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune quotes a high-ranking Twins official in saying that the club will ignore their own policy and negotiate contracts during the season.  In particular, they’ll continue to try to extend Joe Nathan and Johan Santana.  Neal also cites precedents where the Twins bent policies, whether regarding contracts or beards.

We last heard about Nathan a few days ago, when Charley Walters reported "positive discussions" on a deal that could run through 2011.  A week prior to that Nathan said he didn’t think a deal would get done this year.

Santana wants to stay, and was quoted saying "the sooner the better."  It’s just a matter of how much of a discount he’ll concede to the Twins.

Mets And Johan Santana?

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press throws it down:

"Don’t be surprised if the New York Mets, and not the Yankees, end up with Johan Santana for $20 million a year after the Twins’ Cy Young Award winner becomes a free agent after the 2008 season."

Who knows what Santana could do pitching half his games in Shea Stadium (one season there, at least).  I think it’s impossibly early to call any kind of Santana derby, but maybe Walters just wants to send half of New York into a frenzy.  If Santana does reach free agency, I’m sure all the major big-budget teams will have interest.  He’s only the best pitcher in baseball.

Just for fun: PECOTA says Santana will be worth $21,800,000 for the 2009 season.

Of course, this story from January 29th should not be ignored.  The Twins will approach Santana about a contract extension, and Santana is willing to work something out.

Mets And Johan Santana?

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press throws it down:

"Don’t be surprised if the New York Mets, and not the Yankees, end up with Johan Santana for $20 million a year after the Twins’ Cy Young Award winner becomes a free agent after the 2008 season."

Who knows what Santana could do pitching half his games in Shea Stadium (one season there, at least).  I think it’s impossibly early to call any kind of Santana derby, but maybe Walters just wants to send half of New York into a frenzy.  If Santana does reach free agency, I’m sure all the major big-budget teams will have interest.  He’s only the best pitcher in baseball.

Just for fun: PECOTA says Santana will be worth $21,800,000 for the 2009 season.

Of course, this story from January 29th should not be ignored.  The Twins will approach Santana about a contract extension, and Santana is willing to work something out.

Johan Santana Has Full NTC For ’07

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes that Johan Santana’s 2006 Cy Young triggered a full no-trade clause in his contract for 2007.  The clause will stick for 2008 if he finishes in the top three of the voting for that award.  Otherwise, he can choose 12 teams he can’t be traded to in ’08.

There’s a lot of speculation going around concerning Santana.  Patrick Reusse opined that Santana will become baseball’s first $200MM starter and the Twins have no chance.  Furthermore, a lot of folks are trying to fit him for Yankee pinstripes already. 

Before the 2005 season, the Twins locked Santana in at four years and $40MM.  That he was willing to let the Twins buy out a few years of free agency may indicate that Santana will take a discount to remain in Minnesota.  Not a ridiculous discount, but still.  $20 million a year would be a bargain for Santana – I’m sure he could top that in free agency.

I imagine there’s a good chance that even if they don’t intend to re-sign him, the Twins will just hold on to Santana until his contract runs out.  The NTC is a big obstacle and it may prevent some team from offering three top-flight prospects.  That’s probably what it would take.  The Yankees may not have three guys that would get this deal done.  The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins, or Devil Rays might be able to pull it off if they were so inclined.

2009 MLB Free Agents: Johan Santana

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Is it too early to be talking about this?  Apparently not.  Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press throws it out there: what’s going to happen when Johan Santana hits free agency after the 2008 season?  Walters says Santana will still be just 29.  In reality, 2009 will be his age 30 season.

Let’s use Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projection system to forecast how much money Santana might receive on the open market.  Let’s start with Roy Oswalt, who will receive $14.6MM annually in his new five-year deal.  PECOTA says his forecasted performance is worth about $40MM for 2007-11 as opposed to the $73MM he will receive.  That’s more than an 80% premium for an ace starter.

Peter Greenberg currently represents Johan Santana.  Other Greenberg clients include Bobby Abreu, Kelvim Escobar, Freddy Garcia, and Jose Reyes.  It seems that if Greenberg plans to maximize Santana’s payday, he could ask for $120MM over six years.  Who knows?  Santana might be able to get $150MM over seven seasons.  He’s been the best pitcher in baseball for three years running and has shown no signs of slowing down.

By my calculations, Jeremy Bonderman, Mark Prior, Brad Penny, Jake Peavy, and Ben Sheets will also be in the free agent class of 2009.  ’09 will be Bonderman’s age 26 season and Peavy’s age 28 year.  If all of these guys actually hit the market the spending should get insane.

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