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Sunday A-Rod Recap

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I hate to post about the same guy twice in a row, but there’s been a flurry of Alex Rodriguez speculation on this fine October Sunday.  To break it down, here’s a brief recap:

  • The New York Post reports the Yankees are expected to make an offer to prevent A-Rod from free agency.  However, the offer will approach neither $300MM nor 12 years.  I think this is both expected and a smart move by the Yanks because…
  • Nick Cafardo likens Scott Boras’ approach toward marketing A-Rod’s "Iconic Value" to the exaggeratory strategy he took with Daisuke Matsuzaka.  And Johnny Damon, for that matter.
  • Bob Klapisch reports that in Torre’s wake, there will be much posturing from Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Alex Rodriguez who we can expect to wait as long as possible to make any decision(s).  And this is because…
  • The New York Daily News’ Mark Feinsand notes that "it is unlikely that the Yanks will have all of their issues resolved" before the tenth day following the World Series, when A-Rod will decide whether or not to opt out.  Mike Lupica meanwhile points out that the unrest in the Yankee system is a golden opportunity for A-Rod to indeed opt out with a plausible excuse.  Or as Scott Boras so eloquently put it to CNN.com, the "state of flux is a grand issue."  And further leverage for the player and his agent.

Posted by Nat Boyle

Yanks To Pursue Rowand?

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A source of mine with Yankee connections had some good info for me today.  Much was discussed yesterday in Tampa.

For starters, the Yanks are expected to make "eye-popping" offers to retain Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera before the World Series ends.  The team does not want the pair to file for free agency.

Additionally, the Yankees may make a big play for Aaron Rowand.  They believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana.  That’s a huge price, but doesn’t seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.

My source didn’t have anything about Andy Pettitte, who hated seeing Joe Torre go and will take a month to decide if he’s even going to play next year.

Odds and Ends: A-Rod, Posada, Cardinals

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A few articles that caught my eye this morning…

  • Scott Boras seemingly scoffs at the idea of Alex Rodriguez being forced by the Yankees to sign in November.  Reggie Jackson, a special adviser to the Yankees, thinks Rodriguez will top $300MM if he leaves.  Jackson takes a subtle shot at A-Rod for his lack of postseason heroics.  Rodriguez’s .279/.361/.483 career postseason line pales in comparison to Reggie’s .278/.354/.527.  Wait, no it doesn’t.
  • Barry Rozner thinks Jerry Reinsdorf could arrange for two blockbusters for his teams, netting Alex Rodriguez for the White Sox and Kobe Bryant for the Bulls.  Rozner thinks the $300 mil would come back five-fold.  Rozner manages to work in a shot at Aramis Ramirez, his second in two weeks.  What did Aramis do to Barry?  Anyway…I don’t consider the White Sox serious contenders for A-Rod. 
  • George King says Joe Torre’s departure is more likely to drive Jorge Posada away than Mariano Rivera. 
  • Bernie Miklasz talks about the Cardinals opening their wallet so far this offseason.  Is there a chance payroll could go past $115MM?

Cashman Takes Firm Stance On A-Rod

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When we last heard from him eight days ago, Brian Cashman left himself some wiggle room to negotiate with Alex Rodriguez even if he opts out in November and the Yankees lose the Texas money.  The implication then was that higher-ranking club officials could overrule Cashman’s recommendation.

Yesterday, after the Yankees’ meeting of the minds in Tampa, Cashman took a firmer stance:

If Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract then we will not participate in free agency.  That is accurate and that is definitive.

Why this is being aired out in public I’m not sure, but at this point the Yankees will seem kind of stupid if they do negotiate with Rodriguez after he opts out.  It really seems that they’re not kidding about not wanting to lose the Texas money or enter a bidding war.  Meanwhile Scott Boras just spent three full days convincing A-Rod to opt out.  However, Ken Davidoff believes that rather than opt out, A-Rod will sign an extension amounting to $297MM over nine seasons.

George King also revealed that Bobby Abreu’s $16MM option is at the bottom of the queue.  The Yanks will make decisions on Joe Torre, A-Rod, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada first.

Catcher Salaries

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Dan Graziano noted in his column today that Ivan Rodriguez may have set the market for Jorge Posada when his option was exercised.  Posada was the game’s second-highest paid catcher in 2007, with his $12MM salary behind only Jason Kendall’s $13MM.  Posada is coming off a .338/.426/.543 season, so he’s going to break the bank.  Some team is probably going to offer $15MM per year over four years. 

Now that Pudge is locked in at $13MM for ’08, he’s jumped to that top of the list.  Behind him, Jason Varitek makes $9MM and Ramon Hernandez earns $7.5MM next year.  Ramon Castro should prepare for a huge raise – he made $850K in ’07 but could be around $4MM in ’08.

Many catchers will definitely have to take a pay cut.  Kendall won’t get $13MM again, of course.  Paul Lo Duca probably won’t pull $6.25MM.  Jason LaRue will come down from this year’s $5.2MM.  Michael Barrett at $4.6MM?  Probably not.  Brad Ausmus at $3.5MM?  No way.

If you’re interested, Download catcher_salaries.xls.  It’s an Excel spreadsheet with all the 2007 and 2008 catcher salaries.

Posada Leads Free Agent Catcher Class

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If you’re looking for a catcher this winter – and many teams will be – you probably have to put Jorge Posada at the top of the list.  His incredible season couldn’t have come at a better time.  Here’s the list of possible free agent starting catchers, with their 2008 age in parentheses:

Jorge Posada (36)
Ivan Rodriguez (36) – $13MM club option for ’08
Paul Lo Duca (36)
Michael Barrett (31)
Jason Kendall (34)

When we last checked in on Pudge’s option, Ken Rosenthal said the Tigers were "almost certain" to exercise it.  For the sake of argument, let’s say Kendall’s recent resurgence is for real and allows teams to consider him as a starter.  That means four available catchers: Posada, Lo Duca, Barrett, and Kendall.

Barrett is the youngster of the group, and before this season began I would’ve ranked him first.  But even a biased Barrett fan such as myself must admit that his stock is falling rapidly with the altercations, mental gaffes, and subpar offensive performance.      

Despite the power outage, Lo Duca should be a respectable choice for some team not planning to spend $10MM+ a year on a backstop.  Posada, though, is where it’s at.  He’s showing no signs of age and is the type of player GMs love.  And a catcher who can easily post an OPS over .800 is a major asset.

Contract talks with the Yankees from last spring have been tabled as Posada prefers to focus on playing.  It seems like both sides want him to finish his career as a Yankee, though there is some uncertainty in Posada’s comments.  He’s keeping his options open.  I think it will require four years and maybe $48MM. 

Plenty of teams would line up for Posada – the Angels, Mets, Phillies, and Astros come to mind.

Posada Not Concerned

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Jorge Posada won’t be bothered by his impending free agency as he enters his age 36 season.  Last year’s resurgence was surprising given his age and position. 

It’s hard to picture the longtime Yankee backstop with any other team.  If PECOTA were to re-sign Posada for 2007-09, it would offer $25 million or so.  Apparently Posada’s skills will age pretty well.  I think the Yankees will get something done for three years and $30 million.

If the Yankees decide to go another route, free agent catchers may include Michael Barrett, Paul LoDuca, and Ivan Rodriguez.   

Posada Not Concerned

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Jorge Posada won’t be bothered by his impending free agency as he enters his age 36 season.  Last year’s resurgence was surprising given his age and position. 

It’s hard to picture the longtime Yankee backstop with any other team.  If PECOTA were to re-sign Posada for 2007-09, it would offer $25 million or so.  Apparently Posada’s skills will age pretty well.  I think the Yankees will get something done for three years and $30 million.

If the Yankees decide to go another route, free agent catchers may include Michael Barrett, Paul LoDuca, and Ivan Rodriguez.   

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