Quick Hits: Millwood, Bautista, Hawkins
Here are some items of note for Feb. 3, 2011, the day on which former AL Rookie of the Year and MVP Fred Lynn turned 59.
- The Indians are interested in free-agent righty Kevin Millwood, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer, but not at the current asking price of one year, $4-5MM. Cleveland is among the handful of potential Millwood suitors enumerated by Ben Nicholson-Smith earlier on Thursday. The Yankees are part of the group, too, and it stands to reason that Andy Pettitte's retirement might strengthen their interest, writes Chris Bahr of the Sporting News.
- The Red Sox's interest in trading for Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista is telling because it indicates there is a belief among baseball executives and talent evaluators that Bautista's monstrous 54-homer campaign in 2010 was not a fluke, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com. The Red Sox eventually got their man when they signed free-agent outfielder Carl Crawford, so Bautista-to-Boston is obviously off, notes Morosi, but it bodes well for Bautista in his final season before hitting free agency.
- Brewers reliever LaTroy Hawkins said that his surgically repaired shoulder feels good and that he'll compete for a spot in Milwaukee's bullpen, tweets Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Hawkins signed a two-year, $7.5MM deal with Milwaukee prior to last season but pitched in just 18 games before being lost to an injured labrum and rotator cuff. Hawkins has a guaranteed contract, so the Brewers will surely want him to be at full strength and pitching well, but it bears watching how they handle him if he struggles with injury and/or ineffectiveness.
Possible Suitors For Kevin Millwood
Kevin Millwood is looking for a $4-5MM payday, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). That's significantly more than some teams are willing to consider, though Millwood does have a number of potential suitors. Here's a quick recap of clubs with potential interest:
- Even after signing Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia, the Yankees remain in contact with Millwood. Now that Andy Pettitte is set to retire, the Yankees could pursue him.
- The Indians, who could use rotation depth, inquired about Millwood. The Tribe is working to sign Jeremy Bonderman and might not have room in the budget for both players. Cleveland had interest in Millwood as recently as this past weekend, so it's too early to rule out a reunion.
- Millwood is open to re-signing with the Orioles, who just added Justin Duchscherer and won't have much room in their rotation if their new acquisition is healthy.
- The Royals are a possibility for Millwood. They have added Jeff Francis and re-signed Bruce Chen since trading Zack Greinke, but could still use rotation depth.
- The Rockies had interest in Millwood earlier in November. Even then, he was one of the team's secondary targets.
- Though the Mariners have Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Luke French, Erik Bedard and Michael Pineda, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them add an innings eater for the right price.
There should be interest in Millwood, who has averaged 31 starts per season since joining the Braves' rotation in 1998. As he works to secure his client a Major League deal worth a few million dollars, agent Scott Boras will likely remind teams of Millwood's durability and point out that the right-hander spent last season in the tough AL East.
On the surface, Millwood's 2010 looked a lot like Rodrigo Lopez's and Atlanta recently signed Lopez to a minor league deal. Lopez, 35, is just a year younger than Millwood and the pitchers posted similar numbers last year. Millwood's ERA was slightly higher than Lopez's (5.10 vs. 5.00) and Lopez walked fewer batters (3.1 BB/9 vs. 2.5 BB/9). Millwood posted a career-low ground ball rate and a career-high fly ball rate in hitter-friendly Camden Yards and allowed 30 homers, while Lopez surrendered a league-leading 37 homers.
Boras has found a number of surprising contracts for his clients this offseason, so there's no reason to assume he can't find $4-5MM for Millwood. I'm guessing Boras' pitch will revolve around dependability, since that stands out more than Millwood's other stats.
Yankees Remain In Contact With Kevin Millwood
The Yankees have added Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in the last week, but the team is still in contact with Kevin Millwood, reports Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman (Twitter link). It could be that the Yankees just want to give themselves as many veteran starting options as they can, or, as Heyman opines, "they're growing more worried" that Andy Pettitte will retire. Pettitte's retirement would leave the Bombers with two open rotation spots that would be contested between Colon, Garcia, Sergio Mitre, Andrew Brackman, Ivan Nova and potentially Millwood.
Besides the Yankees, the Orioles, Royals and Indians have also been recently connected to Millwood. Like Baltimore, New York wouldn't be able to guarantee Millwood a rotation spot, but it's possible Millwood would take the risk for a chance to pitch for a contending team.
Orioles Notes: Guthrie, Millwood, Scott
Some news items out of the Orioles' FanFest event this weekend…
- The Orioles have discussed a multiyear contract with Jeremy Guthrie, the right-hander tells MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski. "I love pitching here and anytime you can provide your family with security, it's a great option," Guthrie said. "I'm very happy to also play it out year-by-year and have the motivation to go out and do the best that I can. Whatever happens, I'll be a good spot." Guthrie is going through the arbitration process for the second time in his career; MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith recently analyzed Guthrie's case.
- Kevin Millwood is still an option for the O's, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Andy MacPhail told the FanFest crowd that the idea of re-signing Millwood "hasn't been ruled out 'by any stretch,' " but the Orioles can't guarantee a rotation spot to Millwood or any free agent starter. We've heard that Millwood is interested in returning to Baltimore, but without the promise of a regular starting gig, he could turn to other suitors like the Indians or Yankees.
- Luke Scott has told Buck Showalter that not only is he willing to move to left field if Baltimore signs Vladimir Guerrero, but Scott "wants to play defense," Showalter tells Steve Melewski. Scott played 106 games in left in 2008 and had a very solid +5.8 UZR/150 rating, but he has made just 40 outfield starts over the last two seasons.
Indians Interested In Kevin Millwood
The Indians are interested in signing free-agent starter Kevin Millwood, tweets Jon Heyman of SI.com, but the sides are far apart on a price.
The Royals are in interested in Millwood, as well, and the Yankees may be in play, too, depending on what happens with Andy Pettitte, according to Heyman.
Heyman On Pettitte, Millwood, Molina, Wandy
Yankees people seem a bit more optimistic about the potential return of Andy Pettitte, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. They’ll consider alternatives such as Kevin Millwood, but only after hearing from Pettitte. Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors:
- The Indians and Royals remain possibilities for Millwood.
- One rival executive doesn’t think the Bartolo Colon signing means much for the Yankees. "There is no real risk. But there is no real reward, either," the executive said.
- Bengie Molina might consider returning for “special opportunities,” Heyman writes.
- The Rangers and GM Jon Daniels have started discussing a contract extension and Rangers people expect a new deal for Daniels, whose current contract expires after the 2011 season.
- One competing executive believes the Astros overpaid for Wandy Rodriguez. I don’t mind this deal for the Astros, since solid left-handed starters aren’t cheap or easy to find and Rodriguez was about to hit free agency.
Poll: Best Remaining Free Agent Starting Pitcher
Pitchers and catchers are due to report in about three weeks, and by now all of the high-end free agents have come off the board. Heck, even second tier options have signed by now. That leaves just reclamation-type projects and players with considerable flaws, especially when it comes to pitching.
As MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker shows, starters like Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Bonderman, Freddy Garcia, Doug Davis, Rodrigo Lopez, Todd Wellemeyer and Brian Moehler remain unsigned. Andy Pettitte is clearly the best of the unsigned bunch, but it's the Yankees or retirement for him, and right now it looks like the latter is winning out. Neither Pedro Martinez, Braden Looper, or Jarrod Washburn have appeared in a big league game in over a year. John Maine, Justin Duchscherer and Jamie Moyer are coming off injuries, Tommy John surgery in Moyer's case.
There are still a number of teams looking for rotation help, including the Yankees, Orioles, Nationals, Pirates and Indians. Which of those unsigned starters represents the best option?
Who is the best unsigned starting pitcher?
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Justin Duchscherer 34% (6,483)
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Kevin Millwood 20% (3,791)
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Jeremy Bonderman 17% (3,134)
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Freddy Garcia 14% (2,672)
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John Maine 9% (1,684)
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Doug Davis 2% (428)
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Todd Wellemeyer 2% (321)
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Rodrigo Lopez 1% (255)
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Brian Moehler 1% (96)
Total votes: 18,864
Millwood Open To Re-Signing In Baltimore
Kevin Millwood told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com that he can imagine re-signing with the Orioles. And agent Scott Boras says the O's have some interest in bringing Millwood back to Baltimore.
"Scott went over teams that were interested and he mentioned Baltimore, but I'm not sure about the level of interest," Millwood said.
Millwood says he doesn't expect to sign in the immediate future and believes he'll land a major league contract. The 36-year-old posted a 5.10 ERA with 6.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 37.2% ground ball rate in 190 2/3 innings for the Orioles last year.
The Indians and Yankees have expressed interest in Millwood, as have the Rockies and Royals. However, Colorado and Kansas City have since added starting pitchers, so their interest may have diminished. The Orioles are looking to add pitching depth, and they are currently exploring the trade market.
Few Free Agent Groundballers Remain
When MLBTR's Tim Dierkes took stock of the free agent groundballers at the outset of the 2010-11 offseason, the pickings were slim. Fast forward three months and Jake Westbrook, Jorge de la Rosa, Jon Garland, Hiroki Kuroda, Brad Penny and Brandon Webb have all signed.
Carl Pavano, who is reportedly closing in on a deal with the Twins, and Jeff Francis are the only remaining free agent starters (minimum 50 IP) with above-average ground ball rates. Pavano posted a 51.2% ground ball rate last year, while Francis posted a 46.8% ground ball rate.
Though it doesn't seem likely that he'll pitch in 2011, Andy Pettitte posted a respectable 43.9% ground ball rate last year. Jeremy Bonderman, a candidate to replace Pettitte in New York's rotation, also hovered around the league average and posted a 44.7% rate.
Why all the fuss about ground balls? Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has said before that you can't hit a ground ball out of the park. Fly balls are another story, however.
After MacPhail traded for Kevin Millwood last offseason, the veteran posted a career-low ground ball rate and a career-high fly ball rate in hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Otherwise, Millwood's numbers weren't all that different from Jake Westbrook's in 2010. The right-handers, both in their mid-thirties, pitched close to 200 innings apiece with about 6.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 last year.
But Millwood allowed considerably more fly balls than Westbrook, who kept the ball on the ground. The result: 30 home runs allowed by Millwood (Westbrook allowed 20), an ERA nine tenths of a run higher than Westbrook's and, almost certainly, far less guaranteed money in free agency.
Indians Inquired About Chen, Millwood
The Indians have talked to Scott Boras about two of his clients, starters Bruce Chen and Kevin Millwood, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The Tribe are looking for starting pitching help, but as Hoynes notes, the club is hampered by its financial situation.
"It doesn't really matter how much interest the Indians have in a free-agent pitcher…it's all about how much interest the pitcher has in the Indians," Hoynes writes. "As for the second prong, unless ownership is overcome by an unusual circumstance, the interested pitcher would have to sign a minor-league contract."
Chen's solid 2010 season figures to earn him a Major League contract somewhere, but we haven't heard much buzz about the veteran southpaw other than some mutual interest between he and the Royals, though not for anything more than a one-year deal. If Chen opened himself up to the possibility of a minor league contract, you'd think that would notably expand his market, and the Indians would likely get outbid.
Millwood might be the more realistic option for the Indians, though he has been connected with the Royals, Rockies and Yankees this winter. Cleveland and Kansas City would give Millwood the best chance at regular innings and it would be easier for Millwood to rebuild his value for a future contract if he wasn't pitching in hitter-friendly ballparks like Coors Field or Yankee Stadium. Millwood pitched for the Tribe in 2005 and delivered a league-best 2.86 ERA in 192 innings before signing a five-year, $60MM free agent contract with Texas.
As for other free agent starters, Hoynes reports the Tribe's interest in former Indian Bartolo Colon "has cooled considerably." Hoynes also says the Indians were in contact with Brad Penny before the right-hander signed with Detroit.