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Kris Benson

Orioles Sign Steve Trachsel

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UPDATE: The O’s wasted no time replacing Benson, signing Steve Trachsel to a one-year $3.1MM deal with a $4.75MM club option for ’08.  PECOTA says the Orioles overpaid by $625,000.  Assuming he can hold together for 180 innings, Trax should be a tolerable replacement.

The big news today courtesy of Ken Rosenthal is that Orioles starter Kris Benson is out for the season because of a rotator cuff tear.  It’s a bummer for Benson, as it may result in his $7.5MM option for ’08 being declined.

The injury leaves the Orioles scrambling to find a starter who can provide 180 innings of 4.90 ball in the AL East.  Rodrigo Lopez might’ve been that guy; Hayden Penn probably isn’t ready to do that yet.  The team will probably bring in a veteran replacement.  Rosenthal mentions Steve Trachsel as the most likely, as well as Mark Redman and Ron Villone.  Villone last started in 2004.

Additionally, there are plenty of trade options, as discussed yesterday.  Mike Maroth would be a nice pickup. 

Benson Dealt To Orioles; Zito Implications?

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Many of you have already noticed by now that Newsday is reporting that the Mets traded Kris Benson to the Orioles for Jorge Julio and John Maine.  A tip of the cap to Orioles Hangout; I’m pretty sure they confirmation first.

The question on most people’s minds is this: is the Benson swap the initial movement indicating a trade of Barry Zito to the Mets?  If you recall, my Mets source indicated yesterday that Benson would be traded to Baltimore to acquire a prospect to Billy Beane’s liking.  I’ve got word out to a couple of sources to see if anything has changed.  In the meantime, let’s see what we can deduce.

First off, would the A’s have use for John Maine?  The 24 year-old righty starter was ranked 6th in the Orioles’ organization by Baseball America entering the 2005 season.  According to BA back then, Maine needed to refine his command and had a ceiling as a #3 starter.  They also mentioned that he was "probably a #4 or 5 guy on a first-division club."  Maine pitched kind of like a #4 starter in 128 innings at Triple A Ottawa in ’05.  He posted a 4.56 ERA with improved control while maintaining a solid K rate.

I haven’t projected Maine myself yet, but ZiPS thought he’d throw 153 innings of 4.41 ball in his first extended trial with the Orioles.  I think that’s great value for the price.  For basis of comparison, Maine’s 2005 doesn’t look terribly different from Danny Haren’s 2004.  Haren was certainly better, but it’s a fair comparison.  Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus lists these comparables for Maine: Joel Pineiro (2002), A.J. Burnett (2001), Juan Marichal (1961), Bob Gibson (1960), and strangely, Jorge Julio (2003).  I know the A’s already have a stable of starters, but Maine probably needs a little more time and a team can never have too much starting pitching depth.

I would speculate that the Mets would hang onto Jorge Julio to serve as Aaron Heilman’s replacement.  While most analysis today indicates that the Benson trade simply means Heilman starts for the Mets, I am skeptical.  According to MetsBlog earlier this month:

"The problem is that the only person who seems to see Heilman as a starter is Heilman.  Nearly all scouts and experts that I talked with all explained the same thing: Heilman’s repertoire is too hittable during his second time through a lineup."

Should Minaya package up Victor Diaz with someone to acquire a top flight prospect suitable to the A’s, I could really see this Zito deal coming to fruition.   

New Possible Zito Scenario

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Just got a note from my Mets source on a possible Barry Zito trade scenario.  Here’s how this could play out:

The Orioles still have some interest in Kris Benson; VP Jim Duquette likes him.  Benson would be dealt to the O’s for young players of Billy Beane’s choice.

Victor Diaz would be shipped off by the Mets as well, but again for prospects coveted by Oakland.  The A’s don’t have room for Diaz given their glut of 1B/DH/OF types.  The prospects from both deals would then be packaged with Aaron Heilman and the Mets would receive Zito.

The Mets would likely sign Jeff DaVanon to platoon in right field with Xavier Nady to complement this trade.  The switch-hitting DaVanon didn’t do much with righties this year, but posted an .824 OPS against them in 2004.  Nady has a career line of .323/.400/.452 in 124 at-bats versus southpaws.   So keep an eye out for a DaVanon signing and Benson trade, because that could spell a Zito deal.

Wild Rumor From Gotham Baseball

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Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has heard a massive trade rumor from "multiple independent baseball sources."  Of course, it’s subject to change, isn’t close, and all the usual disclaimers.  Here’s the Cliff Notes version of it:

"Mets would send Heilman and Matsui (and $5 million) to Tampa Bay for Lugo. Then New York would send Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister and Victor Diaz to Baltimore for Tejada, and then send Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez."

Let’s stop right there.  My opinion on each step of this possible deal:

Aaron Heilman for Julio Lugo sounds like fair value to me.  Gotham’s sources have the Mets eating $5MM of the $8MM owed to Kaz Matsui in 2006.  That part gels with the information I’ve heard from my Mets source that New York would have to pay at least half of Matsui’s salary to unload him. I’m not sure how the Devil Rays would structure their infield, with Jorge Cantu entrenched at second base and B.J. Upton ready to take over at short.  I had thought the D-Rays would hold out for more than this for Lugo – a good reliever plus someone else’s baggage.  I still feel that they’ll want more.

So then the Orioles are giving up their superstar shortstop, possibly one of the five best players in baseball, for Julio Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister, and Victor Diaz.  This is where the plausibility of the rumor breaks down for me.  The Orioles have given every indication that they need a star player back for Tejada – they’re not even sold on Mark Prior.  Lugo’s a good player for $5MM, but he hits free agency after that.  Benson is a fourth starter who figures to post an ERA around 4 over the next two seasons while being paid more than $15MM.  That doesn’t add much value for the O’s.  Bannister is a smart young pitcher with a good minor league track record, but Baseball America has said he’s "not overpowering" and "doesn’t have a high ceiling."  Diaz is still a valuable prospect, but could easily turn out to be a career reserve.

To sum it up, the Orioles are giving up Tejada to get a pretty good SS in his contract year, an overpaid fourth starter, a B-level pitching prospect, and a solid outfield prospect.  That’s quantity over quality, and I don’t see it happening.

To finish it off, the Mets ship Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny, effectively giving up nothing impressive for the superstar outfielder, considering the players sent to Baltimore.  Not entirely sold on that step, and I’d heard the Orioles did not want Tejada to play for a division rival.

UPDATE:  Just asked my Mets source whether the above scenario could happen.  He said there’s no way: "Orioles get screwed, the Red Sox get screwed, and the Mets have everything go their way." 

Healey’s article also mentions these comments from a baseball official:

"If Barry Zito doesn’t get dealt before opening day, the A’s are screwed.  No one is willing to pay Beane’s price after what the Braves paid for Hudson [Namely, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas]."

I don’t agree with the baseball official, for what it’s worth.  The A’s hold all the cards with Zito.  They have absolutely no need to unload him, and will boast a deep rotation if they keep Zito until July.  I find it odd that the official cites the Hudson trade as hurting Beane’s ability to make major trades.  The Tim Hudson deal is one where the Braves can be labeled a clear winner.  The highly touted Meyer quickly got hurt and is a question mark, Cruz wasn’t deemed Major League ready by Oakland, and Charles Thomas has completely crapped out.  Perhaps the official meant to refer to the Mark Mulder trade.

Mets Scoop: Tavarez, Zito, Benson, Baez

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A slew of information coming from my Mets source today.  Let’s see what we’ve got.

My source believes the Mets will give Julian Tavarez the four-year deal he’s looking for.  The market explosion has necessitated this length, and Omar Minaya will go to great lengths to avoid a subpar bullpen like last year’s.

The Mets are the current frontrunners for Barry Zito, and Lastings Milledge is still a requirement.  As reported earlier, the Mets plan to request a 72 hour contract extension window upon trading for Zito, but would make the trade with just a verbal agreement from the pitcher.  Zito’s best years came under Rick Peterson’s guidance, so it’d be a good fit.

The Mets don’t have the upper hand in any possible Kris Benson trade, so teams are backing off and offering less value.  The feeling is that Anna Benson’s media tirades are precluding small market teams from acquiring her husband.  Anna has definitely decreased Kris’s value around baseball.  She knows that her career will stall if they end up in a place like Kansas City, so she’ll do anything she can to stay in New York.

If the Mets can’t get fair value for Benson, Steve Trachsel and/or Victor Zambrano may be dealt for prospects.  The Mets hope to acquire players that would appeal to the A’s as part of a Zito deal.

The Aaron Heilman for Danys Baez rumors that have been floating around are false.

Not surprisingly, there’s no market for Kaz Matsui, even at a 50% off discount.  While they’d prefer Mark Grudzielanek, the Mets are OK with their depth at second base.

Barry Zito To The Mets

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Just heard from my Mets source, who’s out at Shea (not in Dallas).  The Mets are apparently very interested in Barry Zito.  Here are the details.

The Barry Zito deal is contingent on the Mets shedding Kris Benson first.  The Mets want Mike MacDougal and a prospect for Benson, while the Royals only want to give Jeremy Affeldt.  It’s not likely the Mets acquire both relievers.

The Mets have talked to the A’s about Zito, and Lastings Milledge will be included in any deal.  Aaron Heilman is a possibility.  My source is saying that the Mets will make the trade without an extension done, as long as there’s an understanding that it will happen.  This gels with what Matthew Cerrone mentioned at MetsBlog today, that Zito would consider signing an extension.  My source expects Zito to be moved by the weekend, assuming Benson gets done quickly. 

My source’s info does not gel with what Peter Gammons told writer Joel Lipsky this morning at a Dallas gym.  Gammons apparently said that if the A’s are to move Zito, "they must get a number three starter, at least, in return.  Preferably a lefty."  Given that Zito is a number three starter, I don’t see what team is going to meet that request.

UPDATE: My source is now telling me that the Mets weren’t offering enough for Zito.  Omar stood fast, and Beane will continue to wait for that offer he can’t refuse.  Also, look for Kaz Matsui to be dealt within the next couple of days, with the Mets possibly eating half his salary.

Soriano, Benson, Casey Deals Close

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Wow, I stepped out for a couple of hours and a billion trades/rumors occurred.  Here’s three, with more in-depth analysis to come tomorrow.

Peter Gammons is saying the Dodgers are close to acquiring Alfonso Soriano for Jonathan Broxton.  I suppose Soriano could take over at third base; he’s yet to play a Major League game in the outfield.  Broxton would fit well in either the starting rotation or the ’pen.  The hefty right-hander split time between the roles at Double A Jacksonville in 2005.  One of Broxton’s specialties (besides the palmball) is limiting the home run, a trait that will come in handy in a ballpark that inflates homers by 19%.

The Mets dumped Kris Benson and his salary on the Royals, acquiring southpaw reliever Jeremy Affeldt and perhaps Mike MacDougal.  Affeldt has pretty lousy control and just an OK strikeout rate for a reliever; I’m not sure why everyone’s saying that he’ll shore up the Mets’ middle relief.  MacDougal at leasts boasts a career 8.5 K/9.  As for Benson, Kauffman Stadium isn’t much worse of a place to pitch than Shea.  But with the Royals’ defense behind him, he’ll still see his ERA go up at least half a run. 

The Reds unloaded Sean Casey’s salary on the Pirates.  Hopefully Casey will just be a stopgap until Brad Eldred learns to take a walk.  Dave Williams gives up plenty of homers and allows plenty of baserunners, so his transition to Great American Ballpark will be anything but great.  The move probably takes Austin Kearns off the market, as the outfielder logjam is solved now that Adam Dunn will play first. 

Kris Benson Trade: Update

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Wondering what’s up with that seemingly inequitable Kris Benson for Jorge Julio deal that fizzled last night?  My Mets source has the scoop.

"Mets are hanging onto Benson for now. Rumor of the deal being close to completion was leaked to NY Post so that other teams who may have interest in Benson could come back to them with a better offer next week."

This is the same source that gave me the Billy Wagner deal, so I’m confident in his take on Benson. 

Seems the Mets played the Post to test the waters.  Many analysts wrote the inequity of the deal off as a salary dump, but cutting $5MM isn’t really going to change the way the Mets do business.  The club floated the idea of dealing a decent #3 starter for a lousy, overpaid reliever, and it’s likely that a starting pitching-starved team tops Jorge Julio.  The Angels are one team that can be considered to have a surplus of solid bullpen arms and a possible need for a starter like Benson.

Kris Benson For Jorge Julio Possible

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At least three sources are reporting that the Mets have officially dealt Kris Benson for Jorge Julio.  On the other hand, MetsBlog says the above sources jumped the gun.  In case the deal or something like it occurs, here’s a rundown of the pitchers. 

A recap of my synopsis of Benson from a week ago:

He was much worse away from Shea Stadium.
He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2000.
His 2005 strikeout rate was a career low.

Nonetheless, Benson makes a passable #3 starter.  As a flyball pitcher moving from one of the toughest parks in which to homer to a neutral one, Benson figures to see his ERA hit 4.50 or higher in 2006.  The Mets are free of $15MM due to Benson for 2006-07. 

They will have to cover roughly $3MM coming to Jorge Julio.  The right-hander hasn’t been particularly good since 2002, the year he somehow managed to keep the ball in the park.  Since then, his home run rate has been poor and he’s allowed tons of baserunners.

Fallout from the deal:

Some speculate Julio makes Aaron Heilman expendable, but it doesn’t seem likely the Mets would think that way.

The Orioles might pull back in their pursuit of Paul Byrd, or perhaps he’s reached a deal elsewhere.  A Benson addition might indicate an Erik Bedard deal on the horizon, although co-VP Mike Flanagan has said he’s not shopping Bedard.

While it’s being called a salary dump, the Mets only clear $5MM in the deal for ’06.  It’s not as if that $5MM was holding Minaya back from a big deal he wanted to make.  The key to the deal is more that it opens up a rotation spot for a Javier Vazquez-type trade.  While the Mets are quickly being heralded as National League favorites, their starting rotation is not particularly fearsome at present.

Thanks to Steve and Brian

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