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Olney On Halladay, Wagner, Bay

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In his ESPN.com column today, Buster Olney notes that many teams are waiting to get involved in the free agent market, meaning there might not be many moves made in the next couple weeks. Here are a few other highlights from Olney's blog:

  • One executive tells Olney that the Blue Jays' chances of moving Roy Halladay are no better than 50/50. Another source suggests that the Jays could have had three top prospects for Halladay last summer, whereas now they could probably only land one star prospect and a second with some major-league potential.
  • Billy Wagner's Type A status could make him undesirable to clubs not wanting to give up any draft picks to sign him. However, Wagner could make himself more attractive by lowering his contract demands. If a team thought they were getting a potentially elite closer at a discount, they'd be more willing to part with a draft pick.
  • Olney hears from a pair of execs that the Red Sox will continue to take the Jason Bay negotiations slowly, and that the team would ultimately prefer to sign Matt Holliday.
  • The Padres likely won't want to pay Kevin Correia a raise through arbitration. The team will try to work out a "moderate-sized deal" with him, and if they can't do it, the right-hander could be non-tendered.
  • Olney reiterates what he wrote in yesterday's blog: it doesn't seem like Adrian Gonzalez is going anywhere.
  • Randy Wolf has received plenty of interest from teams looking at starting pitching.

Red Sox Express Interest In Scutaro, Escobar, And More

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Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says the Red Sox have kicked the tires on many free agents already, with Marco Scutaro and Kelvim Escobar the newest names.  Others include Rafael Soriano, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, Adrian Beltre, John Lackey, Aroldis Chapman, Billy Wagner, Mike Gonzalez, Alex Gonzalez, and, of course, Jason Bay.  Silverman cautions that not all names connected to the Red Sox have "enduring news value."

Scutaro certainly makes sense for Boston; he's the best available shortstop, considering both the free agent and trade market.  We ranked Scutaro the eighth-best free agent overall, perhaps a reflection of a weaker market this year.  It'd be nice to see Scutaro sign with the Red Sox, as we'd get at least one of our 50 predictions right. 

Aside from committing a multiyear contract to Scutaro, the Sox might have to surrender their #29 pick in the June 2010 draft to the Blue Jays.  Looking at the Elias numbers, it is possible that the Jays get screwed out of a first-rounder again, as they did losing A.J. Burnett last year (of course, the Jays failed to sign James Paxton anyway).  If the Red Sox sign Scutaro and any of Soriano, Gonzalez, Holliday, or Lackey, the Braves, Cardinals, or Angels would get Boston's #29 pick instead and the Jays would get their second-rounder (assuming arbitration is offered to those players).

As Silverman notes, Escobar would fit right in with the John Smoltz/Brad Penny signings of last year.  Those two bombed, but here's the question – what kind of success rate should the Red Sox expect from these one-year pitcher gambles?  It is OK if one out of five works out?

Mets Rumors: Holliday, Bay, Guillen

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Bill Madden of the New York Daily News doesn't expect the New York Mets to make too big a splash in free agency this winter. Madden notes that a left-handed hitter and a couple of starting pitchers are "absolute necessities" for the Mets, but he projects they'll only have about $20MM to spend.

Based on his payroll projections, Madden declares "you can count [the Mets] out right now" on top free agents such as John Lackey, Matt Holliday, and Jason Bay. Instead, he feels the Mets should be, and will be, focusing on second-tier free agents, such as Mark DeRosa, Randy Wolf, Jason Marquis, and Marlon Byrd.

In a separate article, Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News suggests that, if they're unable to sign a big bat like Holliday or Bay, the Mets might be interested in acquiring Jose Guillen from the Kansas City Royals. Rubin says that a potential deal isn't close, and it seems hard to believe that one could happen.

Rubin himself points out multiple roadblocks, including Guillen's lack of fielding ability and the $12MM that the 33-year-old is owed in 2010 (the Mets would want the Royals to take on a huge chunk of that figure). If Madden is right about the Mets' limited spending money, I can't imagine the club investing in a player like Guillen.

Orioles Notes: Beltre, Delgado, Wolf, Blalock

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The Orioles are positioned to be buyers in free agency, according to Jeff Zrebiec and Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun.  GM Andy MacPhail says that the club is looking to spend this offseason, but there remains some skepticism in Baltimore as to whether owner Peter Angelos will be willing to open up his checkbook.  If the O's decide to dole out dollars this winter, here are some of the players they will and won't be targeting:

  • Barring a change in organizational plans, you can cross the Orioles off the list of suitors for outfielders Matt Holliday and Jason Bay.
  • The Orioles have contacted the agents of Chone Figgins and John Lackey, but are hardly alone in that regard.
  • Adrian Beltre and Pedro Feliz top the O's wish list to replace Melvin Mora at third base. 
  • At first base, Nick Johnson, Hank Blalock, and Carlos Delgado are options.  We know that Baltimore is not the only club keeping tabs on Delgado, as his last employer is said to be keeping an eye on him as well.  The 37-year-old slugger ranked #43 on Tim's Top 50 Free Agents list, where it is predicted that he will sign with the Orioles.
  • Andy MacPhail & Co. are considering Dodgers pitchers Randy Wolf and Jon Garland, as well as Braden Looper.  MacPhail noted that the club is not afraid to take a chance on a hurler with a history of injuries and high upside.  Former Oriole Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, and Rich Harden all fit the bill.
  • The O's would gladly add an established closer at the right price.  Billy Wagner, Fernando Rodney, and Mike Gonzalez are mentioned as members of a deep crop of available relievers.
  • It shouldn't be long before the Orioles agree to terms with pitcher Mark Hendrickson as both sides want to get a deal done.  The 6'9 lefty spent time with four different organizations before coming to Baltimore – eight if you count NBA teams.

Odds & Ends: Chapman, Cubs, Holliday, Damon

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Links for Saturday afternoon …

  • Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News spoke with a baseball executive who believes the Yankees will wind up with Aroldis Chapman.  "My bet is that it'll come down to the Yankees and Red Sox, like it always does…" said the executive. "And I think the Yankees will get him.  They can give him a big-league contract over five years for $20 million and they don't even feel that."
  • The NY Post's Bart Hubbuch reports that the rumored three-way deal involving Milton Bradley, Kevin Millwood and Luis Castillo "isn't happening because the Rangers aren't interested in giving up Millwood so easily." He also mentions that the Mets aren't expected to make any majors moves until the Winter Meetings in two weeks.
  • Paul Sullivan at The Chicago Tribune rounds up some Cubs' rumors all in one convenient spot, just like our Cubs archive.
  • Meanwhile, Phil Rogers of The Chicago Tribune posted his projections on where some notable free agents will land. He sees Matt Holliday signing with Boston, while both Jason Bay and John Lackey land with the Angels.
  • Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post Dispatch notes that the market for Holliday is diminished because officials from the Angels and Giants said they "would not be vying" for his services. 
  • The Yankees' biggest focus right now is finding a "common ground" with Johnny Damon, according to Newsday's Ken Davidoff. Hideki Matsui seems to be less of a priority. 
  • Larry LaRue of The News Tribune says that the Josh Johnson situation in Florida represents the worst-case scenario for the Mariners and Felix Hernandez.
  • Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker passes along a report that says Yusei Kikuchi has inked his first pro contract with the Seibu Lions. Kikuchi will not be eligible for international free agency for at least nine years, though Seibu could make him available through the posting process before that.

Red Sox Looking At Alternatives To Bay?

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Jason Bay rejected Boston's contract offer of four years and close to $60MM two days ago, and now it seems the Red Sox maybe be looking to alternatives. SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that even though the team plans to keep in touch with Bay, "competing execs believe they're looking at hard at alternatives now."

Yesterday we learned that Boston expressed interest in four Scott Boras clients, one of whom was Matt Holliday, and he can certainly be classified as an alternative to Bay. However, outside of Holliday no one on the free agent market can replicate Bay's offensive production, so an alternative would certainly be a downgrade.

Red Sox Express Interest In Four Boras Clients

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The Red Sox have expressed interest in four players – all Scott Boras clients – early in the hot stove season, according to Mike Silverman of The Boston Herald. Those four players would be Matt Holliday, Adrian Beltre, Mike Gonzalez, and Rick Ankiel.

Silverman notes that the Sox consider Holliday and alternative to Jason Bay, should they fail to re-sign him. Gonzalez could replace Billy Wagner, although Ankiel is somewhat redundant after the team acquired Jeremy Hermida earlier this month. Beltre could replace Mike Lowell at third, who Silverman says may "wind up being traded if the Red Sox go out and find a big-slugging first baseman," mentioning Adrian Gonzalez.

Odds & Ends: Atkins, Twins, Carlyle

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Links for Friday, as the free agent market officially opens…

Heyman On Gonzalez, Wellemeyer, Rivera

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SI's Jon Heyman kicks off his newest column with thoughts on his top 50 free agents.  A few highlights from the list and elsewhere in the column…

  • Via Twitter Heyman says Mets GM Omar Minaya likes Luis Castillo more than any of the 29 other teams do.
  • Heyman groups the Cubs in as a possible Matt Holliday suitor, which does not seem feasible given the team's payroll situation. 
  • Lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez has "drawn interest from as many as 15 teams."
  • A new name on the Brewers' radar as a "No. 5-type guy": Todd Wellemeyer.
  • Heyman speaks of "indications the Angels might be willing to trade outfielder Juan Rivera."  One such indication popped up earlier this month when Ken Davidoff said the Angels and Tigers discussed a Curtis Granderson deal.  Rivera had a solid year – .287/.332/.478 – and has $9.5MM remaining over two years.

Giants Unlikely To Pursue Holliday, Bay

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The San Francisco Giants don't expect to pursue free agent outfielders Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Giants GM Brian Sabean tells Schulman that he hasn't been in touch with the agents for Holliday or Bay, and that he doesn't plan to contact them. Sabean indicated that he doesn't want the Giants used to give leverage to a player hoping to pry more money from the Yankees, Red Sox, or other big-market teams. The team is only interested in free agents who have a "genuine interest" in playing for San Francisco.

Sabean suggests to Schulman that the Giants are more likely to look into signing "second-tier" free agents.

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