Players To Watch Between Now And The Deadline
Once the draft ends tomorrow, we'll turn our attention to the trade market and many GMs will be doing the same. We'll monitor dozens of names throughout the next couple months, but here are seven to watch especially closely as the July 31st trading deadline inches closer. First, three players whose teams have to falter before they become trade bait:
- Matt Holliday has been on a tear since May 5th, walking more than he's striking out with an OPS of .989. The A's have heated up, too. Their seven game win streak ended last night, but they're only 6.5 games out, so they'll have to fall off if Holliday's going to hit the market.
- Mark DeRosa's Indians are seven games out of first place, and they aren't selling now, but the versatile 34-year-old could be appealing to teams like the Cardinals and Mets if the Indians struggle.
- Erik Bedard is pitching well, but the Mariners, now five games back, aren't out of it yet.
These three players aren't on contenders, so they could be moved earlier:
- Holliday's former teammate, Brad Hawpe, is hitting .335 with power. His OPS is just shy of 1.000 and he's striking out less than ever. The Rockies aren't going anywhere, but they're on a six game win streak of their own, and Dan O'Dowd is not in a hurry to deal.
- Aubrey Huff will be a free agent after the season and though he's not matching last year's numbers, he's a solid bat.
- Another lefthanded hitter, Nick Johnson, could be a nice addition, though teams might be wary of his past injuries.
And finally, a player who's seemingly been on the trading block forever:
- Jake Peavy's already vetoed one trade and would likely use his no-trade clause to keep himself in the National League. Not many teams can afford to take on his salary, but the Padres would like to move him and he's the best pitcher available.
Cardinals Chairman “Open” To Deals
According to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said the Cardinals are "open" to making trades, but won't deal just for the sake of making a change. Since many teams are still trying to contend, some big names are not yet available.
Olney On Economy, Penny, Strasburg
Buster Olney said on ESPN Radio that the struggling economy could limit the number of trades we see this summer as fewer clubs are willing to take on contracts. Here are the details:
- Since a limited number of teams can add salary, Olney suspects "very cheap players" could be the ones to move.
- Teams are willing to give up less impressive prospects for expensive players, so the A's could be limited if they decide to deal Matt Holliday. However, they don't have to deal, so they can stand pat and collect picks after the season.
- Olney says there's a good chance Brad Penny's moved within the next couple weeks. It won't be this week unless Penny gives his permission, since he can't be dealt before June 15th.
- The Indians are starting to ask themselves who they'll be dealing with if they decide to shop Mark DeRosa and others.
- Olney wonders if the Nats will offer Stephen Strasburg a record deal- say $18-20MM- immediately and stick with that offer until the August 15th signing deadline.
Olney fleshes his ideas out in today's column, saying that teams like the Mariners and Padres may see less impressive bids for Erik Bedard and Jake Peavy as the perceived value of cheap, young players continues rising. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox want to keep their young talent, so they don't drive up the prices for players who could be moved. The Padres could simply keep Peavy instead of accepting a second-rate return for him.
A’s Don’t Have To Make Trades
The A's are in last place, 7.5 games behind the Rangers and they've already been involved in their share of trade rumors, but as Scott Ostler of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, they don't have to shed payroll. Now riding a six-game win streak, the A's can hold onto players like Matt Holliday and Orlando Cabrera if they continue to win.
Olney on Reyes, McLouth, Holliday
ESPN.com's Buster Olney wonders if the currently injured Jose Reyes has already peaked, quoting a scout who says "I don't see a lot of evolution there … Jimmy Rollins struggled early in his career, but then he just kept getting better and better, and I'm not really seeing that in Reyes." Olney likens the situation to Mark Prior's, who seemingly held the Cubs hostage with his potential. Reyes will turn just 26 next week, but Olney says that going forward "the Mets should not assume that Reyes is going to be an unmovable foundation piece," however he is not advocating a trade just yet.
Here's the rest of Olney's rumors:
- Olney heard that the Pirates were concerned about Nate McLouth's defensive abilities, so they moved him now before his trade value diminished.
- Billy Beane will soon have to make a decision about whether or not he should trade Matt Holliday, because other teams will start inquiring soon.
- Olney speculates that the Cardinals could be interested in Holliday, which would satisfy Tony LaRussa's desire for a big bat. He also says that Cards' prospect Brett Wallace would be a good fit for Oakland, but that seems like a hefty price for just three or four months of Holliday.
Heyman On Contenders’ Needs
Jon Heyman of SI.com reports that the Dodgers would have to overpay for Jake Peavy, the Red Sox are going after bats and the Giants are "dangling" Jonathan Sanchez. Here are the details:
- It's unlikely the White Sox could pry Cliff Lee away from the Indians.
- The Brewers aren't sure whether they'll go after a hitter or a pitcher.
- Heyman cites a source who says the Dodgers believe they'd have to pay "insanely" more than anyone else if they want to acquire Peavy. That's not much of a problem for the Dodgers, who are looking strong as-is.
- The Red Sox are "aggressively seeking help," according to their competitors.
- The best player they have a realistic shot at is Victor Martinez. If the Red Sox are going to deal for V-Mart, they'll likely have to part with young pitching.
- Along with Nick Johnson and Aubrey Huff, Heyman says Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham are "possibilities" for the Red Sox.
- Not surprisingly, the Mets would not deal Fernando Martinez for Matt Holliday.
- The Giants are "dangling" Jonathan Sanchez.
- The Cubs remain the favorites for Peavy, though they haven't called the Padres about him recently.
- The Yankees, Angels and Rangers are looking for relief help.
- One AL exec believes Erik Bedard would not adjust well to the attention if he's dealt to the Phillies.
- And could George W. Bush team up with Nolan Ryan to re-purchase the Rangers?
Matt Holliday Uncensored
A's outfielder Matt Holliday appeared on SIRIUS XM Radio's MLB Home Plate Channel Tuesday afternoon and let loose about his expectations for the July 31 trade deadline (Quotes courtesy of MLB.com's Mychael Urban).
"They have not approached me or my representation at all," Holliday replied. "I would assume that being a smaller-market team that is into developing young players currently, that they will probably either trade me at some point or take their [compensatory] draft picks [for losing a Type A free agent] at the end of the year.
"It's sort of the understanding that I have. So we'll just kind of see what happens. I'm taking it day-by-day and just trying to go out there and play the best that I can to help our team win, and then move on to the next day.
Asked if he'd rather be traded or spend the rest of the season in Oakland, Holliday offered a lengthy response:
"That's an interesting question. I'd like for this to work out. I've had a great time with my teammates and have really appreciated the way this organization has treated me in this first couple of months. The guys have been great, and I see a lot of potential in this team, but we obviously aren't playing very well.
"We got off to a rough start and we've had some injuries and find ourselves 10 or 11 games back in the race. So I would say if it looks like we're not going to be able to get back into the race or get healthy, I think every player wants a chance to win, and I'm no exception. I'd love to play in the postseason again. That was the time of my life in baseball … getting a chance to play in the postseason in 2007.
Here's where it gets interesting…
"So if it looks like we're not going to be able to make it to the postseason and they can get some good players for me, I'd be OK with getting a chance to go try to make it to the postseason and play in October."
Taking Stock Of Matt Holliday
At the start of the year, we expected Matt Holliday to establish himself as the top free agent player heading into the offseason. After two months in Oakland, there's no question his value has sunk. Buster Olney says Holliday will be in position to command three-year offers worth just $30-35MM. There's still a lot of baseball left, but let's take a look at some of the reasons his value is so low:
- Holliday's hitting just .275/.368/.440
- His slugging percentage this year is 200 points lower than his career mark at Coors Field.
- He's attempted just five steals after stealing 28 bases last year.
But he still has a lot going for him:
- He has Scott Boras for an agent.
- He's hitting .330/.459/.534 since May 4th, with five homers and all four of his steals.
- If he's dealt to a contender and makes the playoffs he could boost his value by playing well in October.
Olney On This Year’s Free Agents
ESPN.com's Buster Olney writes that there's a chance no player will sign a contract longer than four years during the coming offseason. Here's a handful of the many predictions he makes about baseball's next class of free agent talent.
- Matt Holliday, whose power numbers are pedestrian so far, is in position for a deal worth three years and $30-35MM. Not much when you consider many expected him to sign for over $100MM, but he and Scott Boras still have four months to change the perception that Holliday needs Coors Field.
- Since Aubrey Huff's hitting cleanup in a good lineup, his numbers figure to be strong enough for him to command a two-year deal (maybe even three).
- Orlando Hudson's hot bat and spectacular glove make him a candidate for a three or four-year deal if he can continue producing at a similar rate.
- Johnny Damon could ride "Coors Field East" to a decent contract, but at 36, he's unlikely to see offers longer than two years.
- John Lackey's "likely to get the biggest deal of any free agent this winter" and could be the only player to sign for more than $50MM. Jason Bay would likely command over $50MM, I would think.
- Olney says it's unknown whether the Red Sox will bid three or four years on him and adds that the Yankees may not bid aggressively on Bay since they need room for Derek Jeter.
Odds & Ends: DeRosa, Bruney, Cooper
Let's kick it off today with some odds and ends.
- RotoAuthority discusses responding to lame trade offers in your fantasy league.
- Reliever Mike MacDougal will join the Nationals tomorrow, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Who knows, he could be closing for them by next week.
- Talking to Fred Mitchell of the Chicago Tribune, Cubs GM Jim Hendry defended the Mark DeRosa trade. Here is my problem with it: it was a financially-motivated deal made by a big-market team, and did not bring back players who could help in 2009.
- According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the White Sox acquired journeyman minor league infielder Anderson Machado from the Pirates for a player to be named later.
- Padres exec Paul DePodesta explains the Jody Gerut for Tony Gwynn Jr. swap. DePodesta's third bullet point, money, had to be the overriding factor given Gwynn's negligible value around the league.
- Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle sees Bobby Crosby as perhaps a more pressing trade situation for the A's than Matt Holliday.
- Dr. James Andrews found no structural damage in Brian Bruney's elbow, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Given the uncertainty, though, a bullpen acquisition would still make sense.
- It looks like the writing is on the wall for Astros manager Cecil Cooper. Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle lists his offenses.
- Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is skeptical the Cardinals will make a big move.
- Kiley McDaniel of Baseball Prospectus agrees that the Pirates are the favorite for Dominican talent Miguel Angel Sano, and says the Rays, Cubs, A's, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins are also after him. It's speculated by McDaniel and elsewhere that the Pirates could budget less toward their fourth overall pick in June to compensate for Sano. John Perrotto of Inside Pittsburgh Sports says they like Kyle Gibson, Aaron Crow, Bobby Borchering, and Wil Myers. Tanner Scheppers did not give the Bucs permission to redraft him.