Heyman On Santana
SI.com’s Jon Heyman has the latest on the Johan Santana trade talks.
- The Twins want Melky Cabrera plus one of Chamberlain/Hughes/Kennedy from the Yankees. If the Yanks can surrender Kennedy rather than Hughes or Joba, they’ve done a nice job. Sounds like they would consider giving up Hughes though.
- The Twins want one of Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester plus Jacoby Ellsbury. Lester seems to be the only one of the three the Red Sox would part with, while they’d also be fine with sending Coco Crisp over.
- Heyman names the Mets, Dodgers, Angels, and Mariners as interested parties. First I’ve heard of the Ms or Halos being in the mix. Regarding the Dodgers, check out an interview with Ned Colletti. For what it’s worth, he doesn’t seem anxious to deal 3-5 kids for a guy like Santana or Miguel Cabrera.
Graziano On Yankees’ Center Field
I recently asked Yankees Rumor Royalty winner Dan Graziano for his thoughts on some hot stove queries.
MLBTR: If Melky Cabrera is dealt, do you see the Yanks going after a free agent center fielder? If so, who do you think would be first on their list?
Dan Graziano: If the Yankees were planning to deal Cabrera, I’m sure they would have been involved in the Torii Hunter sweepstakes. Because they weren’t a factor there, I’m thinking right now that they don’t intend to trade Cabrera.
Of course, if the right opportunity (such as the one detailed previously) presented itself, they could deal him. If that happened, I’m sure they’d express interest in Andruw Jones and Aaron Rowand. There are people in the Yankees’ organization who think Rowand’s hard-nosed, blue-collar style would be a nice addition to a team full of superstars. As of now, though, they don’t have any place to play him. If that changed, they’d be involved. And of course, if they couldn’t get Jones or Rowand, they could always move Johnny Damon back to center until they found a better solution.
Morning Yankees Rumors
Just a few things I found scouring the Internets this morning.
- The team has finalized their marketing deal with Alex Rodriguez regarding his breaking of home run milestones. He’ll receive $6 million for reaching the home run totals of Willy Mays, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, and Barry Bonds. And then he’ll get another $6 million for homer No. 763. Yes, that’s $12 million for two homers. The deal has been approved by MLBPA and the Commissioner’s office.
- Peter Gammons, via Buster Olney, reports that the Twins will be seeking three players in any trade to the Yankees of Johan Santana: Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Austin Jackson. Olney thinks that when combined with the $150 million financial commitment that will come along with the deal, the Yankees will not do it. I’d personally not like to give up Jackson, a highly regarded prospect when drafted who just had a breakout season in 2007.
- Steve Serby of the New York Post has a Q & A with Hank Steinbrenner. If you liked Hank before, you’ll like this. If you think he’s a braying ass, you’ll continue thinking the same.
- Ian O’Connor thinks that Omar Minaya needs to steal the Yankees thunder and beat them to the punch for Johan Santana. Personally, I think that’s the worst reason to do anything.
Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.
Graziano On A Yankees/Santana Trade
Recently I asked the Newark Star-Ledger’s Dan Graziano about a realistic scenario under which the Yankees could acquire Johan Santana. His take was a bit different than the standard packages we’ve been hearing. The Yankees have already had talks with the Twins and are expected to make a strong offer.
MLBTR: Give us your take on a reasonable trade package for Johan Santana that the Yankees would consider offering and the Twins would consider accepting.
Dan Graziano: The Twins will need at least one good, proven, major-league player and a couple of prospects in exchange if they decide to deal Santana. Many people have suggested that the Yankees would need to include Robinson Cano in a deal, and that’s certainly possible. But the Twins have a
young player (Alexi Casilla) they believe can play second base, and their greater need may be in the outfield, especially with Torii Hunter now gone off to Anaheim.
To that end, Melky Cabrera might be more appealing to the Twins than Cano. Let’s assume the Yankees don’t want to include Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes in the deal (though Santana might be the only player for whom they’d consider dealing one of those guys), and that Brian Cashman also wants to hold onto Ian Kennedy. The next best pitcher in the Yankees’ system is probably Alan Horne. I’m thinking the Yankees could offer a package of Cabrera, Horne and outfield prospect Jose Tabata for Santana. That could be appealing to the Twins, though they might ask for a better pitcher than Horne (or another, such as Marquez, in addition to him), though it would depend on the packages being offered by other interested teams such as the Mets and Red Sox.
The thing to remember in dealing with the Twins, however, is that they might not always be after the prospects everybody knows about. The Twins pride themselves on being able to identify and acquire big-time prospects at the Class A level. Players who have come to the Twins’ system at the A-ball level over the years include Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford and Joe Mays, as well as Johan Santana himself and a skinny little hitter whose name at the time was David Arias but later changed his last name to Ortiz and went on to achieve some measure of fame with the Boston Red Sox.
Earlier this year, when the Mets and Twins were talking trade for Luis Castillo, we were trying to figure out who the Mets might have to give up. We were thinking of usual suspects like Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber, but the Twins ended up dealing Castillo for AA catcher Drew Butera and Class A outfielder Dustin Martin. These were guys I didn’t know much about, but I’m not going to be surprised if Dustin Martin ends up being a good big-leaguer someday. The Twins’ scouts can spot talent when it’s very young. So there may be some players in the Yankees’ system (and in those of other interested teams) that the Twins would like and we don’t even know about yet.
Orioles Notes: Crisp, Burnett
The always-informed Jeff Zrebiec has a few Orioles tidbits for us.
- The Orioles didn’t engage in conversations with agents for any free agents during the GM meetings – just trade talks with other teams (about 15 total).
- President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said that he’s open to trading with other teams in the AL East. He just wants the best deal.
- With that in mind, two Yankees who interest the Orioles are Melky Cabrera and Kyle Farnsworth. The Yankees could employ Miguel Tejada at third base, if he’s willing.
- The O’s could have some interest in Coco Crisp, though he’s not atop their list. But they do need some kind of center fielder.
- The team’s ears perked up at the availability of A.J. Burnett, even though he makes no sense for them.
Jake Peavy For Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera?
This is barely a rumor, but I have been getting emails about it. Buster Olney said today in his blog that trade talk has run rampant at the GM meetings, even stretching towards deals with little chance of happening.
Olney says the Padres and Yankees briefly discussed a trade that would send Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera to the Padres for ace Jake Peavy. He also said that trade "almost certainly won’t happen." Peavy makes $6MM in 2008 and $8MM in 2009, with another possible $3MM in incentives over those two years. Peavy expects to be traded before reaching free agency – he knows the Padres won’t pony up $18MM a year. You have to figure Kevin Towers will at least listen. Michael Silverman has heard whispers that Peavy might be available.
Even though it’s highly unlikely, would this be a fair trade?
Yankees Could Pursue Miguel Cabrera
Clark Spencer writes of the possibility of the Yankees going after Miguel Cabrera to fill their third base vacancy (assuming M-Cab can hold up at the position for a few more years).
Cabrera’s salary will jump from $7.4MM past $11MM this year through arbitration. A year from now he could be looking at $15-17MM.
Spencer sees a partial match in center fielder Melky Cabrera; the Marlins have had instability at that position since Juan Pierre was dealt. Add Phil Hughes to the package and I think this could get done. The Yankees seem to favor Joba Chamberlain over Hughes (I don’t have any proof for that) and Chien-Ming Wang will be getting pricey. Ian Kennedy is solid but the Marlins are going to want a front-rotation guy like Hughes.
One consideration is that if Cabrera can’t stay at third base, they might have to move him to first and pass on Mark Teixeira next winter. But as I said earlier, maybe the Yanks will take a break from Boras clients anyway. Hank Steinbrenner seems primed to make all sorts of petty/irrational decisions. That should be fun to watch.
Santana for Melky, Hughes, and Prospect?
Tim recently posted about the Yanks inquiries into the Twins organization for Johan Santana. Peter Abraham shares what he’s heard of the rumors for the lefty ace.
Melky Cabrera would give Minnesota a center fielder to replace Torii Hunter if he bolts. The Yankees could then offer the Twins Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy along with a second prospect.
If Melky and Kennedy plus a prospect can land Santana, I can’t see why the Yankees wouldn’t do that, even if only for the opportunity to get a leg up on signing baseball’s best pitcher to a long term deal. But I would assume it would take a lot more. Lots of names are being tossed around along with Philip Hughes, particularly Robinson Cano, names that are most likely the premium the Twins would demand and perhaps a deal-breaker for the Yankees.
Posted by Nat Boyle
Yanks To Pursue Rowand?
A source of mine with Yankee connections had some good info for me today. Much was discussed yesterday in Tampa.
For starters, the Yanks are expected to make "eye-popping" offers to retain Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera before the World Series ends. The team does not want the pair to file for free agency.
Additionally, the Yankees may make a big play for Aaron Rowand. They believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana. That’s a huge price, but doesn’t seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.
My source didn’t have anything about Andy Pettitte, who hated seeing Joe Torre go and will take a month to decide if he’s even going to play next year.
Sunday Morning Santana
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the names being thrown around for Johan Santana. As well as the Kemp/Kershaw for Santana, Cafardo quotes an AL Executive:
One AL executive theorized, "There are a few teams who could match up with the Twins. Would the Yankees deal Melky Cabrera and an Ian Kennedy for Santana? How about Boston? Would they send a Clay Buchholz and a Jacoby Ellsbury for him? The Mets? There are few teams who could handle the paycheck you’d have to give Santana and also be able to part with key prospects."
If that logic is correct, it narrows the list of suitors considerably.
MLBTR readers made the astute point in the Kemp/Kershaw comments that if a team is going to give up two Major League-ready prospects, the deal would be contingent on a re-signing of Santana. A one year rental is most likely not going to appeal to any GM handing over otherwise untouchable commodities such as a Buchholz/Ellsbury or a Kennedy/Cabrera or a Kemp/Kershaw.
Which teams, therefore, can afford the likes of baseball’s best starting pitcher?
Here’s an intriguing twist. As most already know, it’s safe to assume Santana will not finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this year and therefore will not be gaining his no-trade clause for 2008. However, he still gets to choose up to 12 teams to which he can’t be traded. If for some reason he didn’t want to leave the Twins next season, could he strategically choose every team capable of dealing for him?
Despite not having a no-trade clause, it’s safe to note Santana will have considerable say in any deal.
Posted by: Nat Boyle