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MetsBlog: Lo Duca The Best Choice

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Matthew Cerrone at MetsBlog takes on the question facing the Mets since mid-day yesterday: Who starts at catcher next year?

Ramon Hernandez, who was offered a contract by the Mets two years ago when he was a free agent, is said to be Omar Minaya’s top choice. However, this presents a problem. Hernandez won’t come cheap, and the Mets would need to retain their best trading chips if they want to acquire a front-line starter. This would seemingly rule Hernandez out, since "word from Baltimore had been that Hernandez would cost a high-end prospect."

A cheaper trade option would be Miguel Olivo, though it’s likely he will be non-tendered by the Marlins, who probably don’t want to give him a raise over his $2 million 2007 salary. Gerald Laird is another option, as the Rangers have Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, and Max Ramirez in tow. The Mets might be able to acquire him without giving up a piece of the puzzle to acquire an ace.

Olivo and Laird would be more likely to platoon in some capacity with Ramon Castro, while Hernandez would be more likely take on a starting role.

Cerrone says the Mets prefer to sign a catcher. He mentions Michael Barrett, but notes his Type A status, which may be a deterrent for many teams. Maybe he’d make sense for a bottom-15 team, since Barrett would then cost a second rounder. Jason Kendall is also mentioned, though his horrid 2007 is giving pause to potential suitors.

So, in the end, Paul Lo Duca appears the best choice. He costs neither draft picks nor prospects. True, he might not be able to hold up over an entire season, but that’s why the Mets signed a capable backup in Castro.

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Bonds, Broussard, Hunter, Rowand, More

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We missed an installment from good ol’ Kenny Rosenthal yesterday. He’s back today in full force (unlike another great rumor source, Buster Olney, who posted nothing really new in his blog today).

  • The A’s, once considered the best bet for Barry Bonds, are no longer interested in the indicted slugger. Rosenthal thinks it’s likely that Bond’s trial will start after Opening Day, causing him to miss time regardless of the verdict. And then there’s the whole prison issue.
  • The Rangers spoke to the Mariners at the GM meetings regarding the availability of Ben Broussard. Talks didn’t really go anywhere, since Broussard is a non-tender candidate. The Mariners might not be too keen on offering Broussard a raise over the $3.55 million he made last year, in which he managed just 264 plate appearances.
  • Teams, including the Dodgers, might be more interested in Aaron Rowand over Torii Hunter because of one year and $30 million. Rowand is seeking five years, $60 million, while Hunter wants six and $90 mil. Hunter is far more proven a commodity, though, and is more athletic than Rowand. The negative in Hunter’s corner is that he’s two years older than Rowand.
  • He mentions that the Cubs are interested in Luis Castillo and Kaz Matsui, both switch hitters, to play second base next year. The Astros and Mets are also in on Castillo, while the Rockies would like to re-sign Kaz — though they have a number of internal candidates, including Ian Stewart.
  • The Padres are considering offering arbitration to Mike Cameron and Mike Barrett. Barrett seems like a no-brainer. He’s a Type A free agent, and would probably be worth a one-year deal. He could be pricey, though, as Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada are making $13 million or more. Cameron also makes sense. The Padres still need a center fielder for 2008, and they’d do well to sign Cam to a one-year deal should he accept arbitration. Otherwise, the supplemental pick would be nice.
  • Reggie Sanders will consider retirement if he can’t land a deal with the Dodgers, Giants, or Padres. Sanders missed most of the 2007 season with hamstring problems.

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

Rumor Roundup: Colon, Barrett, Clement, Monroe

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Rounding up some of today’s rumors…

Marlins Interested In Torrealba, Barrett, Maroth

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Joe Capozzi checks in with a look at the Marlins’ approach toward free agency this winter.

It sounds like the Fish are willing to spend a few bucks to upgrade on Miguel Olivo in the catcher spot.  Do they go for the defensive-minded Yorvit Torrealba, or the typically offensive-minded Michael Barrett?  So far the Marlins are leaning toward Torrealba, but would have to beat the Rockies’ two-year, $6MM offer.  And the Mets’ level of interest probably just increased with Jorge Posada staying with the Yankees. 

Barrett has a Jeffrey Loria connection, but might seek a two-year deal for $8MM or so.  The Padres might roll the dice and offer him arbitration.  If they do he declines then the price for another team to sign him increases signficantly – a first or second round draft pick.  The Marlins #6 overall pick is protected, as is the Devil Rays’ #1 overall pick.  In contrast, teams like the Brewers, Blue Jays, Mets, and Rockies risk losing first round picks if they sign Type A free agents who declined arbitration.  Another way to lose those picks would be to sign Type A guys before December 2nd.

Capozzi says the Fish could also look at Paul Lo Duca, Damian Miller, or Rod Barajas if the first two choices fall through. 

The Marlins will surf the bargain bin for one veteran starter, and they’re currently targeting Mike Maroth.  I like it.  He’s an Orlando native who could bounce back and win ten games in ’08.  Capozzi also says the Marlins are in touch with Aaron Boone’s agent, but will have competition from the Nationals.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Cabrera, Haren, Barrett

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Rumor guru Ken Rosenthal checks in with a new column this afternoon.

  • The White Sox are legitimately in the mix for Miguel Cabrera, but many stars would have to align for it to get done.  Suitors with better prospects would have to balk, and the Sox would have to part with Josh Fields and Gio Gonzalez.  Kenny Williams might even have to cash Jon Garland in and turn around and flip that prospect in a Cabrera deal.  Regardless, it’s clear that Williams is once again thinking big.
  • Let’s face it: the Twins aren’t retaining free agents Torii Hunter or Carlos Silva.  You gotta know when to fold ’em – maybe it’s best to punt 2008 and trade both Johan Santana and Joe Nathan now.  Rosenthal says that philosophy is gaining some steam in the organization.  Both Santana and Nathan are only under contract for one year, but both are signed well below market prices.  That means that any mildly competitive team could entertain the notion of acquiring one of them for a big boost.  Baseball Prospectus values Santana at $25MM and 8.1 wins next year (he earns $13.25MM).  They put Nathan at $15MM and 6 wins (he earns $6MM).
  • The A’s are another team that could take one step back in order to take two steps forward.  Billy Beane has Joe Blanton and Dan Haren, two solid young pitchers each under team control for three seasons.  That’s a big advantage over the other frontline names who might be available.  Santana and A.J. Burnett have one year.  Jake Peavy and Erik Bedard have two.  Haren for three years is huge.  Blanton is under team control but Haren is actually under contract.
  • The Rays have gotten in touch with Michael Barrett’s people.  Will Barrett’s Type A status become an issue?  Only if the Padres dare offer him arbitration.  If I had to guess I’d say they won’t offer, but it’s a close call.  Troy E. Renck recently mentioned Barrett has drawn interest from six clubs, perhaps including the Rockies and Marlins.  I’m sure the Rockies would not give up their #25 overall pick to the Padres just to sign Barrett.  The Marlins’ sixth overall pick next year is protected. 

Rockies Rumors: Helton, Holliday, Matsui

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Troy E. Renck is at it again, with another column updating us on the Rockies’ hot stove situation.

  • Todd Helton isn’t going anywhere, for multiple reasons.  His current $16.6MM salary is less frightening due to playoff revenue, and he’d be unlikely to approve a trade since his current team is already a winner.
  • As Renck reported earlier this week, the Rox will offer Matt Holliday a four-year, $60MM deal to buy out two years of free agency.  Holliday, a Scott Boras client, seems unlikely to accept anything like that.
  • Why would the Cubs be willing to overpay for Kaz Matsui with a three-year deal?  Surely the Cubs know Matsui has hit .256/.305/.370 away from Coors since joining the Rockies?  I don’t buy the speed angle – promote Eric Patterson, then.  I don’t buy the "make Fukudome comfortable angle" – sign a Japanese reliever, then.  The Rockies are fine moving on from Matsui and Yorvit Torrealba if their offers are beat.
  • Renck says Michael Barrett has drawn interest from six clubs so far, the Rockies one of them perhaps.  The Marlins could be another.
  • The Phillies won’t be going after Brian Fuentes now that they have Brad Lidge, but they weren’t pursuing him before Lidge anyway.  After the dust settles on Francisco Cordero and Mariano Rivera, the Tigers, Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees are expected to look at Fuentes.  The Rockies’ demand is aggressive for one year of the closer – a #3 starter and a decent reliever.
  • Matt Herges will look for a two-year deal; otherwise he’ll accept the Rockies one-year offer.
  • Javy Lopez is attempting a comeback!

Rockies Rumors: Atkins, Barrett, Fukumori

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What are the Rockies up to as they plot to defend their NL pennant?  Tracy Ringolsby and Troy E. Renck have the latest.

  • Ringolsby says Garrett Atkins is staying put, which should help the third baseman relax a little bit.  This echoes Renck’s sentiments yesterday.  Renck also noted that the Rox won’t be offering Atkins a multiyear deal anytime soon.
  • Yesterday Renck said that after Yorvit Torrealba, the Rockies were considering Jose Molina, Paul Lo Duca, Jason Kendall, and Ramon Castro for catcher.  However Ringolsby says today that Michael Barrett and Kendall are the main targets.  Renck has come on board with that today, noting that Dan O’Dowd has contacted the agents for Barrett, Kendall, and Lo Duca.
  • Ringolsby adds that the Rockies are exploring the Japanese reliever market, namely Hitoki Iwase and Kazuo Fukumori.  Fukumori might appeal as the cheaper of the two.
  • Meanwhile the Indians, Brewers, Phillies, and Mets like Brian Fuentes.  We’ve also read about the Tigers’ interest.  The Rockies’ willingness to trade him may depend on the progress of 2007 top draft pick Casey Weathers.
  • Jason Jennings might be leaning toward signing with the Padres.  This echoes an obscure article we found back in July.
  • Renck says that if the Rockies don’t hear by Tuesday about their offers to Kaz Matsui, Matt Herges, LaTroy Hawkins, and Torrealba, they’ll start looking at other options. 
  • Renck adds that the Rockies have checked in with Ron Mahay’s people.  He’s getting popular.
  • The Rockies are out on Jon Garland – they can’t fit his $12MM salary into the 2008 budget.  Matsui moving on would clear $3MM though.
  • The idea of locking up Troy Tulowitzki long-term is being entertained.  It probably wouldn’t happen until after the 2008 season though.

Padres Rumors: Maddux, Cabrera, Barrett, Bradley

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As usual, Tom Krasovic has the scoop with the Padres.

  • The Padres expect Greg Maddux back, at a salary near the $10MM he earned in ’07.  One way it could happen – Mad Dog declines his $8.75MM player option and the Padres exercise their $11MM club option.  Otherwise they’ll just tear it up and figure something out.
  • The Padres will pass on available third basemen Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera.  It sounds like a Padres team source is indicating the Marlins plan to shop Cabrera aggressively.  As if this offseason wasn’t going to be crazy enough, here’s another marquee player on the market.  The Padres have some depth at third base, so they’ll sit out.
  • Apparently the Elias rankings have leaked out somewhere, though I haven’t seen the list yet.  Michael Barrett and Milton Bradley both earned Type A designation, though it won’t matter if the Padres don’t offer arbitration to either.  With either player there’s a decent chance he would accept the offer.  Barrett maybe not, as he might be able to find a two-year deal elsewhere.  Still, it’d be risky.  Unfortunately Mike Cameron and Doug Brocail got the Type B designation (not that that makes sense).  Cameron will probably get offered arbitration; it would’ve been nice to get the Braves’ 18th overall pick.

Orioles Claim Novoa; More Ex-Cubs To Come?

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As far as historians can tell, the Ex-Cub Factor curse was broken in 2001 by the Diamondbacks.  If you’re not familiar, the Ex-Cub Factor says that a team with three or more ex-Cubs cannot win the World Series.  Regardless, the Indians are in decent shape as they have only two (Joe Borowski and Kenny Lofton).  I think the Rockies only have LaTroy Hawkins.

The Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan recently noted that the Orioles are stocking up on ex-Cubs, the latest being nondescript reliever Roberto Novoa.  Former Cubs president and GM Andy MacPhail has already added three to the four that were previously on the roster.

I mention all of this because of Sullivan’s last line, that MacPhail might take a look at free agents Kerry Wood and Michael Barrett this winter.  Wood I can see – he fits in with most teams at the right price as an intriguing yet high-risk swingman.  As for Barrett – perhaps the O’s would pursue him on a bargain one-year deal if they manage to trade Ramon Hernandez.  Hernandez makes $7.5MM in ’08, $8MM in ’09, and probably a $1MM buyout in ’10.  So, $16.5MM over the next two years.  If the O’s pay $5MM or so, teams like the Mets, Yankees, Rockies, or Marlins could be interested.    

State Of The Marlins

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The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson has all sorts of info concerning the state of the Florida Marlins.

  • We’ve heard this before – the Fish can’t afford to keep both Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera.  Do you trade the cheaper guy, or the more valuable one?  As Jackson says, it really just depends on the offers.  It wouldn’t be a complete shock to see both traded if the Marlins received separate knockout offers on each.
  • The Marlins are likely to non-tender Miguel Olivo, with an eye on bringing Paul Lo Duca back to Florida to provide veteran leadership for the young pitching staff.  Other free agents on the radar: Yorvit Torrealba, Michael Barrett, Jason Kendall, and former Marlin Ramon Castro.  Several of these are $5MM players, so the team’s owner would have to sign off.
  • Some kind of MLB-ready starting pitching is likely to come back in a Willis or Cabrera deal.  But otherwise the Fish will try an injury-discounted guy like Kris Benson.  The market has no shortage of these types – Matt Clement, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings, Jon Lieber, and Jaret Wright all fit the mold. 
  • The Marlins will listen on Scott Olsen, but aren’t opposed to keeping him.
  • For now, Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera are staying put on the left side of the infield.  Good luck improving the defense.
  • The Marlins would like to bring Aaron Boone back for ’08.
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