Astros Discussing Jose Contreras
First off, my apologies for the confusion in my last post. Let’s set the record straight about this Astros/White Sox thing.
My source wasn’t referring to the Astros’ interest in Miguel Tejada, but rather Jose Contreras. Baltimore likes the righthander, but Houston covets him as well. The Sox are talking to the Astros currently, but have no interest in Brad Lidge. Their reasoning: they believe in the young, cheap Bobby Jenks. The Sox also have concerns about Lidge’s future health after piling on the innings as well as his impending large salary. That all makes sense; the Sox have no reason to acquire another closer.
Another clarification: the player the Sox are considering for Contreras is Willy Taveras. The additional prospects are unknown. Given the massive salary gap between Jose Contreras and Taveras, this deal would free up cash to be used for reinforcements at the trading deadline. As mentioned before, the White Sox are willing to go up to a $105MM payroll.
Some more quality tidbits on the White Sox’s interest in Miguel Tejada:
Chicago’s offers are non-negotiable. If Tejada is traded, the deal will be completed within the next two weeks. Other interested clubs are still submitting and refining their proposals.
Miguel Tejada Trade: Update
Some more quality details on the possible Miguel Tejada trade:
First issue: White Sox payroll. My source is saying that adding Tejada would not be a problem – the team’s board of directors are willing to take the payroll up to $105 million. Should the Orioles accept one of their offers, they’ll still have flexibility for more additions at the July trading deadline as needed.
UPDATE: There was a miscommunication between my source and I about this deal. He was not telling me that the Astros were in on Tejada, but rather Jose Contreras. I’ll go into more detail on this in a separate post. Sorry for the confusion.
White Sox Make Offers For Tejada
A source close to a major sports representation firm has tipped me off to two offers the White Sox currently have on the table for shortstop Miguel Tejada.
Two formal proposals have been given to the Orioles by Sox GM Kenny Williams. Williams set a drop dead date of December 31st given other clubs’ outstanding offers for Tejada.
Option 1: Jose Contreras, Juan Uribe, and one minor league prospect for Tejada.
Option 2: Brandon McCarthy, Juan Uribe, 20 year-old southpaw Alex Woodson, and another minor leaguer for Tejada. In this scenario, the White Sox would get cash back from the Orioles in the third and fourth years of Tejada’s contract.
According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense into a number of wins above a replacement player, Tejada was worth 3.1 more wins than Uribe in 2005. Contreras was valued at 5.9 wins for ’05. However, the White Sox can’t start both McCarthy and Contreras, so it’s really not a loss in pitching value for 2006. Seems to me that the Sox would much prefer Option 1 if the O’s will consider it.
U.S. Cellular inflates right-handed hitters’ home runs by about 30%. Tejada would stand to tack on about four home runs due to park effects. A loss of both Juan Uribe and Aaron Rowand would weaken one of the White Sox’s two major strengths from their Championship season: their defense. Rowand and Uribe were two of baseball’s best defenders at their positions in ’05, and Brian Anderson and Tejada would definitely be a downgrade. Still, Williams’s offseason moves and the proposed Tejada trades certainly strengthen the club overall for ’06, at least on paper.
Buzz Around The Game
Let’s take a look at what some other sources are reporting today on the rumor front.
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post mentions that Marquis Grissom’s agent said he will sign with the Cubs. When you look at Grissom’s 2005, there’s not much to like. He doesn’t get on base and he’s pushing 40. On the flip side, Grissom mashed lefties to the tune of .315/.356/.577 in 2004 and he’d make a great platoon partner for Jacque Jones.
UPDATE: You probably assumed this, but I’ve verified with a reliable source that the Grissom deal is for one year and will be incentive-based. Nothing unexpected, but worth a mention.
The Mets are apparently finalizing a deal for Danys Baez where they’d give up either Jae Seo or Aaron Heilman plus prospects. In my opinion, this trade is going to weaken the Mets in 2006. I’ve projected Baez to post an ERA near 4. Click here to read MetsBlog’s take.
From my inbox today: "You would be crediable if your rumors actually came true." Why do some people spend so much time writing long, incoherent emails about how they don’t like my site? Just stop reading it if you don’t like it.
Dave Kaplan of WGN Radio Chicago has reported that the Cubs are in discussions for Barry Zito. Wouldn’t be bad to see a durable pitcher on the North Side of Chicago to complement Zambrano.
As you’ve certainly read, Miguel Tejada still wants out. More on details on teams in play later today.
Wild Rumor From Gotham Baseball
Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has heard a massive trade rumor from "multiple independent baseball sources." Of course, it’s subject to change, isn’t close, and all the usual disclaimers. Here’s the Cliff Notes version of it:
"Mets would send Heilman and Matsui (and $5 million) to Tampa Bay for Lugo. Then New York would send Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister and Victor Diaz to Baltimore for Tejada, and then send Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez."
Let’s stop right there. My opinion on each step of this possible deal:
Aaron Heilman for Julio Lugo sounds like fair value to me. Gotham’s sources have the Mets eating $5MM of the $8MM owed to Kaz Matsui in 2006. That part gels with the information I’ve heard from my Mets source that New York would have to pay at least half of Matsui’s salary to unload him. I’m not sure how the Devil Rays would structure their infield, with Jorge Cantu entrenched at second base and B.J. Upton ready to take over at short. I had thought the D-Rays would hold out for more than this for Lugo – a good reliever plus someone else’s baggage. I still feel that they’ll want more.
So then the Orioles are giving up their superstar shortstop, possibly one of the five best players in baseball, for Julio Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister, and Victor Diaz. This is where the plausibility of the rumor breaks down for me. The Orioles have given every indication that they need a star player back for Tejada – they’re not even sold on Mark Prior. Lugo’s a good player for $5MM, but he hits free agency after that. Benson is a fourth starter who figures to post an ERA around 4 over the next two seasons while being paid more than $15MM. That doesn’t add much value for the O’s. Bannister is a smart young pitcher with a good minor league track record, but Baseball America has said he’s "not overpowering" and "doesn’t have a high ceiling." Diaz is still a valuable prospect, but could easily turn out to be a career reserve.
To sum it up, the Orioles are giving up Tejada to get a pretty good SS in his contract year, an overpaid fourth starter, a B-level pitching prospect, and a solid outfield prospect. That’s quantity over quality, and I don’t see it happening.
To finish it off, the Mets ship Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny, effectively giving up nothing impressive for the superstar outfielder, considering the players sent to Baltimore. Not entirely sold on that step, and I’d heard the Orioles did not want Tejada to play for a division rival.
UPDATE: Just asked my Mets source whether the above scenario could happen. He said there’s no way: "Orioles get screwed, the Red Sox get screwed, and the Mets have everything go their way."
Healey’s article also mentions these comments from a baseball official:
"If Barry Zito doesn’t get dealt before opening day, the A’s are screwed. No one is willing to pay Beane’s price after what the Braves paid for Hudson [Namely, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas]."
I don’t agree with the baseball official, for what it’s worth. The A’s hold all the cards with Zito. They have absolutely no need to unload him, and will boast a deep rotation if they keep Zito until July. I find it odd that the official cites the Hudson trade as hurting Beane’s ability to make major trades. The Tim Hudson deal is one where the Braves can be labeled a clear winner. The highly touted Meyer quickly got hurt and is a question mark, Cruz wasn’t deemed Major League ready by Oakland, and Charles Thomas has completely crapped out. Perhaps the official meant to refer to the Mark Mulder trade.
Cubs Tejada Trade On The Table
An emailer reports that the Cubs are awaiting word from the Orioles on this offer:
Cubs get:
Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard
Orioles get:
Mark Prior, Rich Hill, Corey Patterson
This proposal is on the table. The report comes from Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000.
The pros and cons of this deal have been debated endlessly on this site. To restate my opinion: this move works as a "win now" move. The Cubs would add something like seven wins, so they’d need some additional upgrades or players outplaying projections to be favored as the division winner. A couple of options I like:
Platoon Jacque Jones with Matt Murton and acquire a slugging left fielder. Cliff Floyd would only become available if the Mets acquire Manny Ramirez. While the Cubs aren’t thrilled with Luis Gonzalez, he’s still a top ten LF and could push them over the top.
Trade for Jeff Kent. He’s one of the five best second basemen, and I’m firmly in the camp that Ronny Cedeno will not be a Major League success. Kent’s obviously a force in the Dodgers’ lineup, but the Cubs could come on strong and top the Mets’ weak offer. The Dodgers may want to get some young players in return before Kent’s contract is up. Just a thought.
Update: Prior-Tejada Trade
A couple of emailers have informed me of a radio report by Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000. Levine was the first to report the Juan Pierre trade earlier this month.
According to the emailers, the Cubs are waiting to hear back from the Orioles (Angelos will be involved) on this offer:
Cubs receive Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard for Mark Prior, Rich Hill, and Corey Patterson.
Essentially, Patterson is a non-factor in discussing 2006 value. Hill would also not be likely to add much value to a Major League rotation next year. As I mentioned yesterday, this trade nets the Cubs seven wins if everyone plays at their 2005 level.
While beloved by Cubs fans, Prior’s history of elbow problems coupled with two freak injuries have limited his playing time for the team. He’s averaged 166 innings over the last three seasons. Interesting quote in Buster Olney’s blog for ESPN this morning:
"Executives with other teams are assuming, by the way, that Baltimore owner Peter Angelos would likely kill any proposal once club doctors review Prior’s recent medical history."
Bedard is certainly not a pitcher of Prior’s caliber, whether evaluated based on performance or durability. He’s averaged 140 innings over the last two seasons.
Any discussion surrounding Bedard’s potential inevitably references his first half of 2005. He posted a 2.08 ERA in 60 innings before the break. Most encouraging about the successful run was Bedard’s walk rate, which was around 2.1 per nine. He’s walked 4.1 per nine on average in the Major Leagues, and 3.3 per nine in the minors. According to Baseball Prospectus, lefty Bob Ojeda circa 1984 is the closest match to Bedard (although Bedard has better strikeout numbers). Ojeda had a nice decade in the 80s, and reached his peak with 18 wins and a 2.57 ERA for the World Champion 1986 Mets.
Baltimore Sun journalist Jeff Zrebiec’s opinion on all of this?
"The Orioles clearly want to keep the shortstop but seem to be at least willing to deal him if the price is right. However as of now, it appears that Tejada will remain an Oriole at least through Christmas."
Cubs Willing To Trade Prior?
Ken Rosenthal‘s got Chicago buzzing:
"The Cubs, aggressively pursuing a blockbuster trade for Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada, are willing to part with a top starting pitcher, most likely right-hander Mark Prior, sources tell FOXSports.com."
According to Rosenthal, the talks stalled when the Cubs insisted on receiving Erik Bedard and Tejada without surrendering Felix Pie or a top pitching prospect.
A longshot three-way deal involving Manny Ramirez, Tejada, and Prior was also mentioned.
As stated here back in November, Bedard is very much available. Bedard is more than a year older than Prior, and is even more fragile. I’ve projected Bedard at a 3.74 ERA in 170 innings in 2006. I originally had Prior at a 3.37 ERA in 202 innings, although the ERA could be more like 3.53 after I make some more adjustments.
Bedard is a lot further away from free agency than Prior, having only two Major League seasons under his belt. He and Tejada would be a fair return for Prior, even if the Cubs had to include Rich Hill in the deal as the "top pitching prospect." Using 2005 stats and assuming no contribution from any prospects sent by the Cubs, this is a trade that would net the Cubs seven wins in 2006. Is the present team a .500 club? If so, this trade could propel the Cubs to the playoffs.
Still, I can’t help having that ominous feeling that the Cubs could be letting a major talent slip away. At just 25, Prior’s best seasons are probably yet to come (2003 excepted.) Miguel Tejada will turn 30 in May, and you can’t help but worry about his .276/.322/.416 line in 308 post All-Star break at-bats. Sure, people will say he was uninspired and maybe mention the Palmeiro distraction, but the seed of doubt remains.
Mets Not Pursuing Tejada
In Thursday’s Miguel Tejada column, I suggested that the Mets might pursue the shortstop. A few other outlets speculated along similar lines. After speaking with my Mets source today, I’m convinced there’s no chance of the club trading for Tejada.
According to my source, GM Omar Minaya is content to just tinker with his team at this point. Benson and Matsui could go in the right deals, and Minaya will add depth to his bullpen. He’ll also pick up another option for 2B. But Jose Reyes isn’t going anywhere, and Tejada’s not coming to New York.
Cubs Interest In Tejada Confirmed
A couple of different sources are confirming the Cubs’ interest in Miguel Tejada.
According to an emailer, David Kaplan of WGN Radio spoke with two sources close to Miguel Tejada. The sources told Kaplan early Friday that Tejada would love to play for the Cubs and would welcome a trade. The Tribune Company owns both WGN and the Cubs.
Several other emailers mentioned a Bruce Levine report on ESPN Radio 1000. According to Levine, there is major interest in Tejada by the Cubs and Jim Hendry has had talks with the Orioles front office already. John Stockstill is currently the Orioles’ director of pro scouting, and formerly had the same role with the Cubs. Interestingly, that same Baltimore Sun article from December 7th has a headline called "Tejada Energized" and mentions that Tejada is "excited" about the 2006 season.
The two teams worked amicably on a blockbuster trade last winter, when the Cubs sent Sammy Sosa to the Orioles for Jerry Hairston and some prospects. If you’re looking for possible scenarios for a Cubs-Orioles Tejada trade, you can browse some of the 144 comments on the first post on this topic. In my opinion, Felix Pie and Rich Hill would both have to be a component of any deal.