State Of The Astros
Astros GM Tim Purpura has finally admitted that the Astros should not be making player acquisitions with this year in mind. A huge veteran firesale makes perfect sense right now.
As far as the huge blockbuster names – Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, and Roy Oswalt – Purpura specifically says they will not be traded. I have avoided wasting ink on the Oswalt rumors that have bounced around over the past few weeks, because I just didn’t believe them. Oswalt’s 2008-11 total salary – $58MM – is about the same as Mark Buehrle‘s and an equal-sized bargain.
Oswalt mentioned his willingness to waive his no-trade clause if a deal would help the Astros, which I imagine would require the $16MM option for 2012 to be exercised. Regardless, trading Oswalt would be silly. A pitcher of his stature at a reasonable contract is a rarity.
Fortunately for a website that specializes in trade rumors, Purpura still has plenty of parts to sell off. I outlined all the trade candidates in this post.
Brad Lidge seems to be healthy now, and spending all of next week in the Majors closing games for the Astros would go a long way toward his trade value. But maybe a nice run would convince Purpura to keep him. We’ve heard conflicting messages on whether the Astros are willing to trade Lidge. Today, Richard Justice mentions the Indians, Red Sox, and Tigers as "hot for" Lidge.
Right behind Lidge in trade value is Jason Jennings. Jennings, who typically acts as a bullpen-saver, is on the road to re-establishing his health after missing most of April and May with elbow problems. He had a decent June, making six starts and going seven innings in three of them. Since the injury risk and impending free agency may keep his price down, Jennings might be the best realistic trade target among starters.
Last Year’s Oswalt Trade Details Surface
Mark Hale of the New York Post was able to dig up some new details on the machinations that almost left Roy Oswalt a Met. He’d certainly look good with this group.
The Mets were dying to get him last July, but didn’t have the goods to make a direct swap with Houston. The Astros wanted a hitter, perhaps Hank Blalock from the Rangers or Miguel Tejada from the Orioles. Morgan Ensberg, Brad Lidge, John Danks, Thomas Diamond, Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Heilman, and Brian Bannister were all names that surfaced in connection to a possible trade.
Oswalt Cashes In
Given the possibility of Roy Oswalt leaving the Astros after the 2007 season, the club decided to lock him up for a very long time. Oswalt’s five-year, $73MM deal averages $14.6MM annually with a complete no-trade clause.
It’s backloaded, of course, with salaries of $15MM in 2010 and $16MM in 2011. The concern with Oswalt is his size and workload. Last year he threw 269 innings, and it was 256 in ’04. At least this year Houston should miss the playoffs and give him a bit of a break.
Baseball Prospectus says Oswalt should be worth about $11.3MM in ’07, and then it’s a downward spiral to $6MM in 2010. This deal will likely prove to be quite the financial burden near the end; the Astros apparently did not learn their lesson after the Jeff Bagwell contract.
Then again, Oswalt could certainly defy the projections. The key to survival for him into his late 20s and early 30s will be the continued transition away from power pitching. He’s got a career low strikeout rate this year, but you wouldn’t know it from his 3.25 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Available Starting Pitchers: The Horses
One very important aspect in a starting pitcher is the ability to go deep into games. Teams can avoid resorting to inferior middle relievers if the starter can consistently pitch seven innings.
Only two starters this year – Brandon Webb and Roy Halladay – are averaging seven innings per start. Neither of those guys will be available this winter. Let’s take a look at some starters who are available and can save bullpens.
Jason Schmidt, in addition to being one of the NL’s best this year, has averaged 6.83 innings per start. The 33 year-old is destined for one of the offseason’s biggest contracts; perhaps similar to the deal Pedro Martinez signed.
Roy Oswalt‘s name has been popping up in trade rumors. Oswalt has averaged 6.78 innings per start this year; he’ll turn 29 soon. Oswalt has been worked hard, throwing almost 270 innings last year and 256 the year before. We see how that type of workload has affected Mark Buehrle. Oswalt’s strikeout rate has slipped to a career low 6.2 per nine innings in 2006.
Dontrelle Willis could be made available by Florida. He’s 15th in baseball with 6.61 innings per start. The 24 year-old has been abused by Joe Girardi; he leads baseball in starts with 110-121 pitches (14). In case you’re curious, Carlos Zambrano leads in starts with 122-132 pitches (5).
Groundball specialist Jake Westbrook has also been mentioned in trade rumors, with the Diamondbacks surfacing as a possible suitor. Westbrook turns 29 in September and has increased his innings per start to 6.55 this season. Westbrook is underrated; he’ll make just $5.6MM next year and is a model of consistency and durability.
Mets Trade Rumor: Milledge For Oswalt Or Schmidt
Jon Heyman busts out a big one early Monday morning: the Mets are in "serious talks" for Jason Schmidt or Roy Oswalt. The key to any deal would be Lastings Milledge.
Heyman mentions that Brian Bannister would be needed to pry Oswalt away but not Schmidt. He also says Aaron Heilman could be used to "enhance" a deal.
It seems now that Oswalt really is in play, which is strange given the Astros’ lack of depth behind Roger Clemens. Speaking of which, why not put the Rocket on the block instead?
Roy Oswalt’s Name Enters The Fray
Here’s a new one: could Roy Oswalt be traded in the next 18 hours?
According to the Baltimore Sun:
"Several industry sources confirmed the Orioles and Astros are negotiating dealing Tejada for third baseman Morgan Ensberg, shortstop Adam Everett and Oswalt, 28, who has already won 91 major-league games."
The O’s have said they are looking for established Major Leaguers in return for their superstar shortstop, and Oswalt fits the bill. Baltimore would have to have competitive designs for the 2007 season, as Oswalt is a free agent after that.
According to Value Over Replacement Player, Oswalt has been the fourth best pitcher in the league this season. Last year he ranked fifth in VORP. It’s tough to see how the Astros would win this year with no dependable starters behind Roger Clemens. Perhaps a Rodrigo Lopez type pitcher would come to Houston in the unlikely event Oswalt is dealt.