Rosenthal’s Latest: Santana, Glaus
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up, dealing more in speculation that actual rumors. Nothing wrong with that.
- Rosenthal as well as Barry Bonds‘s agent believe the Giants will retain him for the 2008 season. However, Brian Sabean could begin to rebuild nonetheless. The patchwork aging veteran approach of 2007 need not be repeated.
- It would be interesting to see what Terry Ryan could get if he made an uncharacteristically bold move by trading Johan Santana this summer. He would be able to get one or two of the very best young players in the game. Keep in mind, though, that Santana has a full no-trade clause this year. He gets the same for ’08 with a top three Cy Young finish this year. Santana wants to stay in Minnesota, and would offer a hometown discount.
- Rosenthal speculates that if J.P. Ricciardi would deal within the division, maybe the Yankees could get Troy Glaus as A-Rod insurance. Glaus could play first base for the remainder of this season. Ricciardi isn’t shopping Glaus though; he said he’d need to be knocked over to break up the core lineup. That would mean one of the Yankees’ much-hyped pitching prospects (not Hughes, but something good).
Rosenthal’s Latest – Buehrle To Brewers?
Ken Rosenthal has a new article, and as usual he’s broken several brand new trade rumors. A brief summary:
- Here’s a good one: the Brewers have "kicked the tires" on Mark Buehrle. You can never have too much pitching, I guess. It’s a long shot that Doug Melvin could pull it off without involving Yovani Gallardo or Ryan Braun, and he won’t trade those two. Without either player, the Brewers would pretty much be offering quantity over quality in terms of prospects. My own speculation: Corey Hart might intrigue Kenny Williams, but he’d be hard to part with.
- Rosenthal estimates ten teams are looking at Buehrle. He names the Mets, Braves, Mariners, and Cardinals. Add the Brewers and we’re still five short. The five Rosenthal doesn’t mention could include the Red Sox, Yankees, Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, and Phillies. Just guessing on the last five.
- The Blue Jays have changed their tune on Troy Glaus – they’ll now listen to offers for him. It is believed Glaus might waive his no-trade clause to play close to home for the Padres, Angels, or Dodgers. Glaus is owed about $5.9MM more this year and $12.75MM in 2008. He also negotiated an $11.25MM player option for ’09 when he was traded to Toronto. Perhaps to agree to a trade he’d want his deal extended through ’09 for $13MM or so. Rosenthal says the package for Glaus would likely involve a young third baseman, like Chase Headley, Brandon Wood, or Andy LaRoche. Such a deal would be hard to ignore for J.P. Ricciardi. Of the three teams mentioned, Ricciardi has only previously dealt with Bill Stoneman (on the Brad Fullmer trade).
- Rosenthal says the Cubs are not involved in a trade for Ken Griffey Jr. The ownership change will prohibit them from taking on his contract. Rosenthal also mentions that the Cubs are having difficulties finding a taker for Jacque Jones.
- The Angels still like Adam Dunn, though I still don’t see how he fits into their roster.
- The prospect going to the Tigers for Mike Maroth won’t be anything special; the point was to unload his $3MM salary.
Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. A summary appears below.
- Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options. That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
- The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle. Strictly a rental. That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
- The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira. Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
- Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks. They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day. The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters. If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump. Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
- Barry Bonds‘s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening. Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate. Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
- Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley.
- Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him. Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
- Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
- The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth. Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned. The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons.
Rosenthal’s Latest Video
Ken Rosenthal has a new video up at FOXSports.com for your viewing pleasure. My summary:
- As you know, Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka are drawing strong interest across baseball. The only team named by Rosenthal is the Yankees, and in a roundabout way. He simply said that the Rangers have been scouting the Yanks.
- Both the Dodgers and Angels would love to add a power-hitting third baseman. The problem is, there’s not much about there. Rosenthal says Troy Glaus, Mike Lowell, and Miguel Cabrera are all currently unavailable. One who might become available and could play third is Miguel Tejada. My own speculation on some possible second-tier trade candidates at third base (some long shots included): Jose Bautista, Mark Reynolds, Chad Tracy, Ty Wigginton, Melvin Mora, and Wilson Betemit.
- Michael Barrett could be on his way out of Chicago, mostly because of his defense. Rosenthal names the Marlins and Rockies as interested parties.
Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal posted a new article this afternoon. A good read as usual, though not chock full of new rumors.
- Rocco Baldelli remains the Devil Rays’ best trading chip; they hope to see the 25 year-old return and re-establish the trade value he had in 2006. Many are already saying the Rays waited too long on Baldelli, but let’s see what they get for him before making that judgment.
- Reggie Willits has hit his way into a starting job for the Angels. Nice to see an Angel drawing walks 12% of the time. That will enable Willits to remain effective after his batting average regresses. Rosenthal says third base is the clear position for upgrade for the Angels. Garrett Atkins is desired, and Rosenthal would consider Brandon Wood a reasonable bounty. If I’m Dan O’Dowd, I’m making that deal. Meanwhile, Bill Shaikin believes the Blue Jays would ask for Wood for Troy Glaus, but would settle for Ervin Santana and 1B/3B/DH Matt Brown. Shaikin’s source says J.P. Ricciardi is not yet prepared to trade Glaus, however.
- Rosenthal speculates that the Braves would like to add a big-time starter to get away from the current plan of "Hudson and Smoltz and pray for lightning bolts." Sorry, that was the best weather rhyme I could come up with. He mentions Rich Harden and Dontrelle Willis, accompanied by the obligatory Jarrod Saltalamacchia rumor. Poor Salty.
Padres Need A Bat
The Padres are currently 13th in the NL in OBP and 10th in slugging. They could really use a hitter – Mike Cameron and Kevin Kouzmanoff have been offensive black holes, Brian Giles has less power than his brother, Khalil Greene never gets on base, and Josh Bard batted cleanup a few days ago.
Phil Nevin‘s agent and apparently a San Diego radio station have been campaigning for the Padres to sign the free agent. I think his supporters are more focused on the 22 homers than the fairly meager .438 SLG or the fact that Nevin can’t play defense. Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune throws out three other possible upgrades at third base: Troy Glaus, Hank Blalock, and Ryan Zimmerman.
Blalock seems to be bouncing back so far; he’s at .292/.346/.467. Kevin Towers and Jon Daniels have hooked up for two deals – one the infamous Adam Eaton trade, and the other a minor one that sent Freddy Guzman to Texas.
We discussed Glaus yesterday – he would have to have a desire to come to San Diego. Some scouts from other teams have been spotted at recent Blue Jays games, but the Padres were not among them. As for Zimmerman, I would imagine the Nationals want to build around him.
We went through a Kevin Towers analysis last year, when the Padres were more clearly in need of a third baseman. We learned that Towers has strong connections with Bill Bavasi and also the Red Sox. That could make Adrian Beltre and Mike Lowell legitimate candidates. Lowell is in his walk year and has slugged a surprising .549 so far.
Time For Blue Jays To Think About ’08?
With about 20% of the season in the books, the Blue Jays are last in the AL East and seven games under .500. Baseball Prospectus’s Postseason Odds report says they have an 11.29% chance of reaching the playoffs. Looking at their runs scored and allowed, they’re not as bad as their record looks – BP’s report says the Jays have a much better chance of reaching than the Devil Rays (2.48% despite a better record).
Even without all these fancy reports, we can see that Toronto’s playoff chances are slim. Sure, their offense has been pretty good, and they’re still waiting for Frank Thomas and Adam Lind to come around. But the Jays are carrying around a 4.90 team ERA; their rotation has been predictably bad. Chacin, Towers, Zambrano, Ohka. No one really expected those guys to post sub-5 ERAs. Probably not even J.P. Ricciardi.
Dustin McGowan is here to stay, and after a few months in the rotation he should start pitching like a solid #3. And the Jays have a little bit of interest in adding Jason Davis, who could help in the rotation or bullpen. But Ricciardi might be better suited to play for 2008, maybe sign a more legitimate starting pitcher in the 2007-08 offseason. Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail can see a bit of an overhaul in coming months, specifically naming Troy Glaus as a trade candidate.
Glaus can pretty much be counted on for a .360 OBP and .520 SLG, though it seems like he’s older than 30. This year it’s been his shoulder, Achilles, and hamstring. Despite the aches and pains, Glaus has played in about 150 games in each of the last two seasons. He makes $10.75MM this year and $12.75MM in ’08. He was also awarded an $11.25MM player option when he was traded to the Blue Jays, and has a full no-trade too. In other words, Glaus is calling all the shots.
Perhaps the Angels would want Glaus back; they have a slew of third basemen on their radar. The Phillies are another club lacking at the hot corner. The Indians, Reds, or Padres might be interested as well, assuming the contract can be worked out.
Buzz Around The Game
Believe it or not, there’s a ton of stuff going on today that doesn’t involve the words "Prior" or "Tejada."
A tentative Troy Glaus trade has been reached. The Diamondbacks dumped Glaus and his contract on the Blue Jays for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista. Brandon Webb, far and away the most extreme groundball pitcher in baseball, benefits greatly from the addition of Hudson. Another effect is the breakup of a highly rated defensive infield, at least in the eyes of Dayn Perry. The Blue Jays now have a logjam of 1B/3B/DH guys, and Rosenthal speculates that Shea Hillenbrand is the most likely to go. Should Shea stay true to his word, he’ll be a nice pickup. It’s a homecoming for Miguel Batista; let’s hope the team correctly employs him as a starter. Even with Glaus gone, the Diamondbacks still haven’t cleared up a corner outfield spot for #1 prospect Carlos Quentin. The kid’s more than ready; let’s hope GM Josh Byrnes can unload Luis Gonzalez or Shawn Green as his next trick.
Jason Johnson makes a sweet pickup for the Indians’ rotation. Like Millwood last year, the Indians found a starting pitcher and only had to commit to one year. In Paul Byrd, Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, and Johnson, the Tribe has built a deep rotation. Combined, the five of them threw 1023 innings in 2005. Seems Mark Shapiro has taken a page from Kenny Williams’s book, especially considering that he also has an excellent bullpen in place.
The Cards snagged Juan Encarnacion and Junior Spivey. The reaction at Viva El Birdos to the revamped 2006 lineup:
"To be honest and blunt, i don’t see a single position where the Cardinals have meaningfully improved."
That sentiment includes the bullpen and starting rotation as well. Which reminds me – how can the Cardinals possibly justify blocking Anthony Reyes with Sidney Ponson? The Ponson signing means one of three things:
1. There are concerns about Reyes’s health that have not been revealed to the public.
2. Jason Marquis will be traded this winter.
3. Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan are so loathe put a rookie starter out there every fifth day that they’d prefer yet another fixer-upper. Even if said fixer-upper had a 5.64 ERA over his last 346 innings.
Cardinals fans have got to be hoping for option #2.