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Wily Mo Pena

Tim Brown’s Latest: A’s, Yankees

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Yahoo’s Tim Brown has a new post up, with some trade rumors we’ve heard before and some we haven’t.

  • Clearly the A’s are sellers, and they’re offering up Mike Piazza, Joe Kennedy, and Bobby Kielty.  Brown names the Twins as the club most interested in Piazza.  He also feels the Yankees, Angels, Mariners, and Red Sox would be good fits.  But where would Piazza play on the Red Sox?
  • The Red Sox were apparently close to a deal for Kielty, a 31 year-old switch-hitting extra outfielder.  He hasn’t played much center since ’02, so maybe the Sox have relaxed that requirement.  Kielty was supposed to be moved in a three-team deal that would have sent Wily Mo Pena somewhere.  The deal has stalled, but it’s really starting to look like Pena is on the move.
  • The Yankees and Rangers are still discussing Mark Teixeira.  My guess is that Brian Cashman just wants to see if this can be done without involving Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain.  Failing that, the Yanks have Ty Wigginton and Shea Hillenbrand on their list.  Wiggy would be a useful addition.  Joe Maddon would still find a way not to play Jonny Gomes though.

McAdam On Red Sox Trade Possibilities

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Yesterday, Sean McAdam of The Providence Journal posted an article discussing trade possibilities for the Red Sox.  Let’s discuss.

  • It seems that the Red Sox will add a bullpen arm despite the fine work of Manny Delcarmen.  Apparently they want someone with experience.  Eric Gagne doesn’t seem likely, nor does Brad Lidge.  Instead, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, and maybe Salomon Torres or Scott Linebrink could be acquired.  The focus is said to be on the Houston relievers.  Wheeler seems like a solid buy-low option.  You can add Octavio Dotel to the radar as well.  And let’s throw Brian Fuentes into the mix.  UPDATE: Today, McAdam added Damaso Marte as a reliever the Red Sox like.  He says the price for Torres is "way too high" at present.  And according to the Boston Globe, Drayton McLane will not even consider moving Lidge.
  • The Sox would get involved on a top-flight starter like Roy Oswalt or Dontrelle Willis.  Calling Willis "top-flight" is a stretch, but that’s what McAdam said.  They also like Jon Garland, if they can pry him loose for a reasonable price.  Other available starters don’t seem markedly better than internal options.
  • The Royals would love to pawn Reggie Sanders off, but the Red Sox don’t have interest.  Instead, they could reacquire Kevin Millar or even go after Jermaine Dye.  Is Dye really a perfect fit, though?  Wouldn’t his acquisition make he and J.D. Drew part-time players?  That wouldn’t be good for the clubhouse.  UPDATE: McAdam says today that this playing time issue will indeed thwart a trade.  On the Millar front, the Boston Globe debunks that rumor on the basis that the Sox want someone who can play center field.
  • Speaking of people who can play center field, the Boston Herald mentions Randy Winn and Dave Roberts as possibilities.  The fans would love a Roberts acquisition, I imagine. 
  • The trade Mike Lowell/acquire Mark Teixeira scenario is highly unlikely.
  • The Boston Globe is saying that the Red Sox are "actively shopping" Wily Mo Pena.  I discussed Wily Mo in a post yesterday.  The Boston Herald today said that he might be the trading chip for a deal with Houston.

Reggie Sanders Likes Red Sox

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Is the feeling mutual?  39 year-old outfielder Reggie Sanders is finally back from his hamstring tear, pinch-hitting on Monday and playing left field last night against the Red Sox.  Sanders spoke positively of the possibility of playing for the Red Sox when asked.

In the half-month he’s played this year, Sanders has hit well.  He has about $2.1MM left on his contract currently.  The Royals would probably trade him for some salary relief and an A ball long shot prospect.  The motivation for the Red Sox would be replacing Wily Mo Pena as the fourth outfielder, as the 25 year-old has really been scuffling this year outside of May.

Pena is a guy who really got the short end of the stick.  After hitting 45 homers in 647 ABs for the Reds from 2004-05, he was traded to the Red Sox and stopped playing regularly.  Surely that’s hurt his development.  His comparables list is littered with 40-50 HR types, and as a baseball fan I want to see if he can realize that potential.  Hopefully there’s a power-hungry team that values Pena as much as Epstein does and a deal can be made.  The Padres have been mentioned, and that sounds reasonable.

Wily Mo Pena And The Padres?

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Buster Olney had an intriguing thought in his blog yesterday.  The Padres’ bullpen is a source of strength, but they’ve got a lefty-heavy lineup and are tenth in the league in slugging.  How about Wily Mo Pena to the Padres for a top shelf reliever, maybe Scott Linebrink? 

I know what you’re thinking – the Red Sox have the best relief ERA in the league.  OK, maybe you weren’t thinking that.  I had to look it up.  But Boston’s relief success has been reliant on two players – Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima.  Are the Sox confident that this pair will remain healthy and effective all year? 

Wily Mo is an unfortunate story.  The 25 year-old has prodigious power and should be entering the prime of his career, but his development has been trifled with.  He essentially skipped Triple A, and now the Red Sox can barely find at-bats for him.  Pena’s comparables list is littered with names like Frank Howard, Matt Holliday, Dale Murphy, Jay Buhner, Jesse Barfield, and Richie Sexson.  Pena is a 40 homer season waiting to happen.  He won’t find an opportunity in Boston unless Manny Ramirez is traded.

Tuesday tidbits

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Nothing in the news that is too breathtaking today, but there have been enough things worthy of mention that I thought I’d throw them all into one thread.

Here’s a fun trade possibility: the Red Sox are interested in Chad Cordero (uh, who wouldn’t be?) and may be dangling Wily Mo Pena, whom Jim Bowden is known to…how should I put this?…really like.  Bowden hasn’t acquired a toolsy outfielder for a couple of weeks now, so if the Sox found a way to sweeten the deal, perhaps Trader Jim would take the bait.

The Yankees have been quiet lately, but they may soon make an offer to bring back Ted Lilly.  They have also been linked to Shea Hillenbrand and Rich Aurilia to fill a spot at first base. 

The Rockies signed Jeff Francis to a four-year deal for $13.25M, which takes him through his arbitration years.  He’s still only 25, and if nothing else, he’s proven he can eat innings.  He may still turn into more than that.  Even if he’s no more than a 5th starter, he’ll be worth close to that amount, and the Rockies will probably want to exercise their ~$7M option for his first year of free agency in 2011.

According to the LA Times, who I would link to if they didn’t require registration, Carlos Lee isn’t interested in the west coast, which would rule out the Dodgers, Angels, and Giants.  You gotta admit, it would’ve been pretty funny if El Caballo signed in LA and he and Juan Pierre played side by side for the next five years.  By the end of those deals, Vin Scully would’ve said "double to the left-field gap" more times than he did in his first twenty years of broadcasting.

The Reds sent more than half of Jason LaRue’s salary along with him in yesterday’s trade.  I didn’t think it was a horrible deal for the Royals in the first place (though, admittedly, do they really need a mediocre stopgap catcher to help get them to 70 wins?) but this makes it a better one.  More coverage at Royals Review.  (You didn’t know there was a Royals blog, did you?)

By Jeff Sackmann

Wily Mo Traded For Arroyo

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It’s official:  the Red Sox have sent Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena.  This is an intriguing trade.

The Reds needed a solid affordable starter like Arroyo.  It’s unclear yet which Reds starter will be pushed out of the rotation.  Eric Milton is terrible but well paid.  Paul Wilson will probably begin the year on the DL, so the club won’t have to sort things out until he returns.

So far in his career, Arroyo has done an above average job keeping the ball in the park with a 0.95 HR/9 in 588 innings.  This will come in handy in Great American Ballpark. Still, as U.S.S. Mariner points out, he’s a flyball pitcher entering a home run ballpark with Ken Griffey Jr. as his centerfielder.  Not a great mix. 

You’d have to imagine Arroyo is less than amused after signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal out of loyalty for the Red Sox.  This is one case where a player should’ve listened to his agents.

Fenway Park provides a 13% HR boost for righties like Pena.  Of course, Great American had a similar effect on him.  Here’s a look at some projections for Pena.  I know he’s touted as a 40 HR candidate right now, but something in the low 30s would be more reasonable even if he gets 550 ABs.  For fantasy geeks, Pena could certainly top 100 RBIs for the first time if he gets to hit in the heart of the order and isn’t platooned.

Signs of Reds OF Trade Mounting

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More and more, it’s looking like the Reds will deal one of their outfielders before the season begins.  First off, Jon Heyman’s column from yesterday:

"Now that Scott Hatteberg has been signed for first base, the Reds might shop that extra outfielder they’ve been carrying for a while. They have Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Peña, Austin Kearns and Ken Griffey Jr., with Peña most likely to go for young pitching. Previous owner Carl Lindner rejected deals for Griffey (including one with the Cubs last year), but maybe new owner Rob Castellini will do the right thing."

I must say, I hadn’t heard about that Cubs/Griffey offer before now.  Griffey to the White Sox, yes.  Anyway, Will Carroll also got in on the act today:

"Adam Dunn in left field? Who’s headed out of Cincinnati?"

I agree with Heyman – Wily Mo seems most likely to go.  But we should start with the Reds when figuring this one out.  The Reds need pitching.  Surprisingly, their rotation is actually already five-deep if Paul Wilson is able to take the hill.  The Reds won’t put a timetable on his return.

Possible matches: Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Anaheim, Florida, and Los Angeles.  OK, that didn’t exactly narrow it down.  But all these teams could use an outfielder and could probably come up with a youngster to get it done. 

Bowden Still Chasing Wily Mo

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Tucked at the bottom of Bill Ladson’s article about the Nationals’ attempts to convince Alfonso Soriano to play left field is a new trade rumor.  Well, a new old trade rumor.  According to Ladson:

"The Nationals already have feelers out for Reds outfielder Wily Mo Pena, and a Nationals scout is expected to look at him sometime this week.

The Nationals have been after Pena since last season. He is a player who Bowden acquired from the Yankees when he was the general manager of the Reds. Last year, Pena hit .254 with 19 home runs and 54 RBIs for Cincinnati. Bowden has always believed that Pena has the potential of being a similar player to Sammy Sosa."

Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system calls for a breakout season for Wily Mo this year; something along the lines of .280 with 33 HRs in a full season.  In my own estimation, a healthy Pena might hit .253 with 33 HRs.  No one’s disputing his power, but only PECOTA thinks Pena can make a batting average jump along the lines of his comparables, Jesse Barfield and Willie Stargell.

The Reds’ desire in any Pena trade will be pitching, pitching, and more pitching.  On the Major League level, the Nationals feature John Patterson plus a whole lot of other guys that would not bring Pena in a trade.  It would be crazy for the team to trade Patterson, so let’s see what’s in the minors.

The Nats’ farm system is barren.  According to Baseball America, the club’s best young pitchers are Collin Balester, Mike Hinckley, Bill Bray, and Daryl Thompson.  I would’ve added Armando Galarraga, but the Nats traded him to Texas in the Soriano deal.  None of these guys are close to the Majors, so Bowden would probably have to rope in a third team to get one of their pitchers involved.  Even then, they don’t have much to offer. If Bowden can somehow turn Soriano, a huge mistake, into Pena, he deserves many accolades.     

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