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Yu Darvish

Latest On Yu Darvish

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Although many are considering it a given that Yu Darvish will join the offseason's free agent class in the coming weeks, there's no guarantee that Darvish will be posted, as Yahoo's Jeff Passan wrote yesterday. Passan wonders if the right-hander might end up subtly protest NPB's posting system by remaining in Japan, and spoke to one general manager who has the same worries:

"I’m concerned we're not going to see him for a few more years," said the GM. "He's not your average Japanese player. I get the impression he wants to stand for something."

Here are the rest of the latest Darvish-related notes:

  • Not all GMs are concerned about Darvish staying in Japan. One who has scouted the 25-year-old for years told Passan, "He's coming. The money is too good. He makes [$7MM] there. He'll be guaranteed $50MM or $60MM here."
  • SI.com's Jon Heyman agrees, tweeting that Darvish is still "more likely than not" to be posted.
  • Hal Steinbrenner said the Yankees won't be affected by Kei Igawa's lack of success when deciding whether to bid on Darvish, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
  • Tom Verducci of SI.com cites Igawa and others when looking at some rocky NPB-to-MLB transitions in the past.

Red Sox Rumors: Garcia, Ortiz, Manager, Darvish

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Let's check in on the latest from Red Sox and new GM Ben Cherington….

  • Boston has inquired on Freddy Garcia, a source tells Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.
  • The Red Sox will meet with David Ortiz's agent tonight, tweets Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Rob Bradford of WEEI (Twitter link) hears from a source that the Sox have already made Ortiz a contract offer.
  • Ortiz continues to say that he'd like to return to Boston, and will give the Red Sox a chance to match any other offer he's considering, according to the Boston Herald.
  • At least one more managerial candidate, in addition to Dale Sveum, is expected to get a second interview, tweets Silverman. Principal owner John Henry says the team is making sure not to rush the process, writes Scott Lauber of the Herald.
  • In a separate tweet, Silverman says Cherington will travel to the Dominican Republic, at least in part to get a first-hand look at Yoenis Cespedes.
  • Their current investment in other starting pitchers means the Red Sox will have less interest in Yu Darvish than they did in Daisuke Matsuzaka when he was posted, says Abraham (Twitter link).
  • The Red Sox and Cubs touched base again on compensation talks today and will revisit the topic tonight, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston (via Twitter).
  • Josh Reddick will have wrist surgery, but expects to be healthy in time for Spring Training, reports ESPNBoston's Joe McDonald.

Far East Notes: Darvish, Aoki, Nippert

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Here's the latest on Japanese players who could be coming to North America and a North American who's staying in South Korea…

  • There is "a bit of concern" among executives that Yu Darvish won't decide to be posted this winter, tweets SI's Jon Heyman.  It has been widely assumed that Darvish would be posted and immediately become one of the most sought-after pitchers on the market, despite the fact that it will cost a team at least $100MM to both win the posting bid and then sign Darvish to a contract.
  • The transition to four days' rest from six days' rest between starts will be the biggest transition for Darvish if he comes to the Major Leagues, writes ESPN's Jason Coskrey.  Coskrey also provides brief scouting reports of Wei-Yin Chen, Hisashi Iwakuma and Tsuyoshi Wada, three pitchers likely to make the jump from NPB to MLB this winter.
  • Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (via Twitter) suggests the Indians aren’t likely to pursue Norichika Aoki, the three-time Central League batting champion who will be posted this offseason. As Hoynes reported yesterday, however, the Indians are interested in Japanese right-hander Shinobu Fukuhara.
  • Dustin Nippert has signed a new two-year deal with the Doosan Bears of the Korean Baseball Organization, reports Dan of MyKBO.net (Twitter link).  Nippert originally signed with Doosan in March.  The 30-year-old right-hander pitched three seasons each with the Diamondbacks and Rangers from 2005-2010 before being non-tendered by Texas last offseason.

MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith also contributed to this post

NL West Notes: D’Backs, Barmes, Darvish, Dodgers

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The Diamondbacks finalized a new deal with Willie Bloomquist today and the move has had an impact for at least two NL West teams. Here are the details.

Quick Hits: Maddux, Maine, Jackson, Darvish

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The Orioles officially announced that they’ll name Dan Duquette their executive VP of baseball operations tomorrow. While that front office change was expected, the Twins’ decision to replace Bill Smith with Terry Ryan was most certainly not. Here are some notes from around MLB on yet another busy day for front office movement… 

Quick Hits: Moyer, Darvish, Yankees, Tigers

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Congratulations to the 2011 Gold Glove winners. Here are some notes from around MLB…

  • Brandon Phillips ($250K), Adrian Beltre ($100K) and Adrian Gonzalez ($100K) were among the winners to obtain bonuses for their fielding excellence, according to the AP (via SI.com).
  • Jamie Moyer threw for scouts last Thursday, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Reports on the left-hander, who’s nearly a year removed from Tommy John surgery, are excellent.
  • Patrick Newman of FanGraphs explains what you need to know about Yu Darvish, the Japanese starter who could be posted this offseason.
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs makes the case that teams should treat Darvish as a super two player by guaranteeing him two or three years at an average annual value of approximately $10MM.
  • Jim Margalus of South Side Sox isn't thrilled that the White Sox exercised Jason Frasor’s 3.75MM option and explains what the decision means for Chicago. 
  • The Yankees expect to be heavily involved in trade talks this offseason because they have prospects to trade and are willing to deal pitching, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). 
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters, including MLB.com's Jason Beck, that he'd like to re-sign free agent infielder Ramon Santiago. Though the Tigers like Santiago, they don't see him as an everyday solution.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says he’d like to re-sign free agents Ryan Madson and Jimmy Rollins if possible, according to Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "We've had discussions with the agents of both players," Amaro said.
  • Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest repeated that he can consider major expenditures this offseason, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.

Yankees Notes: Sabathia, Darvish, Montero, Garcia

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It's been a busy day for the Yankees. They've announced their extension with GM Brian Cashman and declined their option on Andrew Brackman, making the right-hander a free agent. Reactions to C.C. Sabathia's extension have continued streaming in and we have some more notes to pass along from Cashman's conversation with reporters. Most of the quotes below come via Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger:

  • By signing Sabathia, the Yankees added "the most important piece" of the offseason, Cashman said.
  • "Offense is not a problem with this club," Cashman said. He's right – the Yankees scored more runs than any MLB team but the Red Sox and their starting lineup returns in 2012, so pursuing Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols doesn't seem likely. 
  • The focus of the winter is "pitching, pitching, pitching," Cashman said.
  • Cashman said the organization is better-positioned to evaluate Japanese players than it was a few years ago. The Yankees could express interest in Yu Darvish, the Japanese right-hander who may be posted this offseason.
  • Jesus Montero's role with the Yankees has yet to be determined: he could DH, catch on a semi-regular basis or be a bat off of the bench. Cashman expects Montero to contribute in the Major Leagues.
  • Cashman said picking up Nick Swisher's $10.25MM option was an easy decision.
  • Agent Peter Greenberg says there’s mutual interest between the Yankees and free agent Freddy Garcia in working out a new deal, according to Mark Hale, George A. King III and Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Yankees would likely offer the Type B right-hander arbitration.
  • I examined the Yankees' offseason last week.

Nationals Notes: Johnson, Wang, Rodriguez, Darvish

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters on a conference call that the team will make an announcement about its 2012 manager within a few days. The team has conducted a series of interviews and will presumably announce that Davey Johnson will return to the bench next year. Here are more notes from Rizzo's conference call with:

  • The Nationals are indeed expected to make Johnson their manager, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
  • The team is corresponding with the representatives for right-hander Chien-Ming Wang, but the sides aren't close to a deal, according to Ladson (on Twitter). They discussed a contract extension earlier in October.
  • The Nationals haven't spoken to free agents Ivan Rodriguez or Livan Hernandez since early in the offseason, according to Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com. 
  • Washington would lose its 16th overall pick for signing a Type A free agent and that's something that Rizzo will factor into the team's decision-making process this offseason. 
  • Rizzo has not seen Yu Darvish in person in the last two years, according to Goessling. However, the Nationals have scouted the right-hander and it sounds as though they’re open to bidding on him if he’s posted.
  • Darvish is on Washington's radar and Nationals scouts have seen him pitch in person at least nine times, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reported earlier this month.

Agents Predict Darvish’s Posting Fee, Contract

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As of a few days ago, Nippon-Ham Fighters ace Yu Darvish was undecided about asking his team to post him as a means of moving to MLB for the 2012 season.  The 25-year-old righty posted a 1.44 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 0.19 HR/9 in 232 innings this year, and there will be a bidding frenzy if the Fighters post him.

In the posting system, MLB teams have until a certain date to submit bids for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the player.  MLB GMs have the difficult task of choosing a bid that will be the highest but won't be significantly higher than the second-best bid.  After the posting fee, the team must then sign the player to a contract.  The player's only leverage is to return to Japan, in which case the posting fee is returned to the MLB team and the process is over for the year.

Five years ago, the Red Sox won the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka for $51,111,111.  They then negotiated a six-year, $52MM contract with Scott Boras, bringing the total commitment to $103,111,111.  As we've seen with Boras' draft pick negotiations, he uses what little leverage he has to maximum advantage.  There was a point in the Dice-K talks where an agreement with the Red Sox did not seem likely.  Last year, the Athletics won the right to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma for $19.1MM, but the Rakuten Golden Eagles had to return the posting fee when the A's were unable to reach an agreement with agent Don Nomura.  Darvish is represented by Nomura and Arn Tellem of Wasserman Media Group.

The Fighters have a lot to gain financially by posting Darvish now.  Sure, they could wait until after the '12 or '13 seasons, but Darvish is healthy and at the top of his game right now.  Agents I spoke to were divided on whether Matsuzaka's posting fee is relevant information in trying to predict what Darvish would require.  Misinformation abounds from the Dice-K posting period, but most reports suggested $20-30MM bids until the Red Sox came in over $51MM.  Only the Seibu Lions know for sure what the second-highest bid was, but in hindsight Boston might have been able to win the rights at $35MM.  

Last week, I polled five agents and one team executive about Darvish's potential posting fee and contract.  Guesses on the posting fee ranged from $30-55MM, with the team executive making the highest prediction.  The average of the six guesses was $45MM.  As for the contract, most people predicted a five or six-year deal in the $72-75MM range.  One agent wondered if the winning team will "try to force some options down his throat," especially if it's the Blue Jays.

The bottom line: everyone I talked to expects a minimum of a $100MM commitment to acquire Darvish if he's posted this year.  It's possible we'll see as many as six $100MM commitments this offseason, not including extensions.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Pirates, Moyer, Oswalt

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C.J. Wilson wasn't at his best tonight in what may have been the final start of his Rangers career. He allowed five walks and four hits through 5 1/3 innings, but he allowed just two runs — enough to keep his team in the game and allow Texas to take a 3-2 series lead. Here are today's links…

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