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Yu Darvish

Agents Predict Darvish’s Posting Fee, Contract

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As of a few days ago, Nippon-Ham Fighters ace Yu Darvish was undecided about asking his team to post him as a means of moving to MLB for the 2012 season.  The 25-year-old righty posted a 1.44 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 0.19 HR/9 in 232 innings this year, and there will be a bidding frenzy if the Fighters post him.

In the posting system, MLB teams have until a certain date to submit bids for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the player.  MLB GMs have the difficult task of choosing a bid that will be the highest but won't be significantly higher than the second-best bid.  After the posting fee, the team must then sign the player to a contract.  The player's only leverage is to return to Japan, in which case the posting fee is returned to the MLB team and the process is over for the year.

Five years ago, the Red Sox won the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka for $51,111,111.  They then negotiated a six-year, $52MM contract with Scott Boras, bringing the total commitment to $103,111,111.  As we've seen with Boras' draft pick negotiations, he uses what little leverage he has to maximum advantage.  There was a point in the Dice-K talks where an agreement with the Red Sox did not seem likely.  Last year, the Athletics won the right to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma for $19.1MM, but the Rakuten Golden Eagles had to return the posting fee when the A's were unable to reach an agreement with agent Don Nomura.  Darvish is represented by Nomura and Arn Tellem of Wasserman Media Group.

The Fighters have a lot to gain financially by posting Darvish now.  Sure, they could wait until after the '12 or '13 seasons, but Darvish is healthy and at the top of his game right now.  Agents I spoke to were divided on whether Matsuzaka's posting fee is relevant information in trying to predict what Darvish would require.  Misinformation abounds from the Dice-K posting period, but most reports suggested $20-30MM bids until the Red Sox came in over $51MM.  Only the Seibu Lions know for sure what the second-highest bid was, but in hindsight Boston might have been able to win the rights at $35MM.  

Last week, I polled five agents and one team executive about Darvish's potential posting fee and contract.  Guesses on the posting fee ranged from $30-55MM, with the team executive making the highest prediction.  The average of the six guesses was $45MM.  As for the contract, most people predicted a five or six-year deal in the $72-75MM range.  One agent wondered if the winning team will "try to force some options down his throat," especially if it's the Blue Jays.

The bottom line: everyone I talked to expects a minimum of a $100MM commitment to acquire Darvish if he's posted this year.  It's possible we'll see as many as six $100MM commitments this offseason, not including extensions.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Pirates, Moyer, Oswalt

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C.J. Wilson wasn't at his best tonight in what may have been the final start of his Rangers career. He allowed five walks and four hits through 5 1/3 innings, but he allowed just two runs — enough to keep his team in the game and allow Texas to take a 3-2 series lead. Here are today's links…

Heyman On Friedman, Darvish, Yankees

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With the general manager carousel moving at full speed and free agency approaching quickly, there are plenty of rumors in Major League Baseball. Jon Heyman weighed in today at SI.com; here are some highlights: 

  • Heyman’s sources doubt the Angels would waste Andrew Friedman’s time if they weren’t prepared to offer him a job. However, someone close to Friedman doubts he would leave the Rays. Friedman tops the Angels’ long list of GM candidates.
  • One general manager expects C.J. Wilson to sign a deal worth $75MM over five years.
  • Yu Darvish is undecided about making the jump to MLB, but he’ll be in line for lots of money if he does make the leap. One general manager suggested Darvish would cost about $100MM between his contract and his posting fee and another GM agrees that he’ll cost “big bucks.”
  • The Yankees and GM Brian Cashman are making progress in their discussions about a new contract.
  • Free agent starter Freddy Garcia is popular with the Yankees’ front office and could return in 2012. The right-hander barely qualifies as a Type B free agent, according to our rankings.

Darvish Undecided About Jump To MLB

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There's a widespread assumption that Yu Darvish will be playing in the Major Leagues next year. But the 25-year-old right-hander took to his personal blog to explain that "nothing is decided."

"After the entire schedule is over, I will carefully think it over,” Darvish wrote, according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker. “As soon as I decide I will let everyone know.”

If Darvish asks Nippon Ham, his current team, to post him, MLB teams will bid for his exclusive rights. The team that wins the bidding will then have the chance to sign him to his first MLB contract. Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested yesterday that the Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals, Mariners and Royals are the early favorites to land Darvish, who would be among the offseason's top available arms.

Yu Darvish Links: Yankees, Jays, Rangers, Mariners

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Here's the latest on the Yu Darvish sweepstakes…

  • Talking to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes (Twitter link), an unnamed agent believes Darvish's posting fee will reach $50MM, and the right-hander will then sign a five-year, $75MM contract with the winning team.
  • Brian Cashman told Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York that the Yankees scouted Darvish last season in Japan, but unsurprisingly didn't comment about whether or not the team would be interested in bidding for the right-hander.
  • Yankee management is unlikely to pay an expensive posting fee for Darvish given the club's spotty history with Japanese pitchers, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).  For what's it worth, the "Yankees' scouts love Darvish." 
  • In another tweet, Sherman lists the Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals, Mariners and Royals as the favorites to land Darvish this winter, in that order.
  • The Mariners have scouted Darvish but, in the opinion of Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, the M's shouldn't make a bid since the team has so much young pitching coming up from the minors.  Stone also points out that "the Mariners have not become the haven for Japanese players that was predicted by some" when Hiroshi Yamauchi became the club's principal owner.  

Yankees Notes: Kuroda, Darvish, Sabathia, Nova

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The Yankees will decline Damaso Marte's option, as expected. Here are some more notes on the club's pitching staff…

  • C.C. Sabathia's investment in the Yankees is not "in the same universe" as Derek Jeter's, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out. The Yankees are hesitant to tie themselves up with long-term deals, but there should be common ground for the Yankees and their ace. Sherman proposes a number of deals that could work for both sides, including a five-year, $125MM contract with a vesting option for a sixth year. 
  • Though the Rangers would have interest if Sabathia hits the open market, Sherman explains that they aren't likely to be among his most aggressive suitors.
  • The Yankees don't seem inclined to add three years to Sabathia's contract to keep him in New York, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. Sabathia has four years and $92MM remaining on his current deal and he will likely opt out after the World Series. Sabathia's weight gives the Yankees some concern about another seven-year deal.
  • The Yankees are beginning their scouting meetings today, according to Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com. Front office members will discuss possible acquisitions and provide GM Brian Cashman with the information he needs to create his offseason plan.
  • Marchand notes that free agent starter Hiroki Kuroda is a possible fit for the Yankees. Though Kuroda appears to prefer the Dodgers if he continues playing in MLB, the Yankees have had interest in him before. 
  • Rafael Soriano will not opt out of the two years and $25MM remaining on his contract, though there's nothing official yet, according to Marchand.
  • Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explains that Yu Darvish makes sense for the Yankees because they can use their most abundant resource (money) to add a potential star who fits their offseason needs. Bidding on Darvish wouldn't require the Yankees to surrender a draft pick and wouldn't prevent them from bidding on free agent pitchers such as C.J. Wilson.
  • Ivan Nova remains an SFX client, after switching to Legacy Sports for two days, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). As MLBTR's Agency Database shows, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cervelli and Eduardo Nunez are also SFX clients.

Quick Hits: Reyes, Darvish, Montero, Yankees

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Some links as we look forward to Game 6 of the NLCS tonight..

  • The only way Jose Reyes will sign in the exclusivity period is if the Mets blow him away with an offer, and that isn't happening, writes Steve Popper of the Bergen Record.
  • With his team's spot in the playoffs already locked up, Yu Darvish will skip his start on October 18th, according to the Kyodo News Agency (Japanese link).  Orioles player development director John Stockstill traveled to Japan to watch Darvish pitch in this game. (Translation provided by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker)
  • The Yankees will look for in-house fixes this winter, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Sherman wonders aloud if the club might deal Jesus Montero for a starter and further open the DH slot, but a team official said that it wouldn't make sense to throw more dollars and add risk to the offense.  Sherman added that he doesn't sense that the club has a strong affinity for free agent left-hander C.J. Wilson.
  • Some of the Red Sox coaches have been granted permission to explore other opportunities while awaiting their fate, multiple sources tell Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.

Davidoff On Red Sox, CBA, Rangers, Darvish

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In today's column, Ken Davidoff of Newsday tackles a number of topics including what's next for Boston.  Here are some highlights..

  • When the dust settles, the Red Sox are expected to name Ben Cherington as Theo Epstein's successor in Boston.  While the club could take one step toward closing their credibility gap by hiring an experienced manager to complement their rookie GM, that's not likely to be the case.  The Red Sox already view Cherington as having GM experience because of the work he has done with the organization.  They'll more likely look to hire someone with a willingness to utilize statistical analysis and work with the rest of the baseball operations department.
  • This year, MLB and the Players Association had hoped to announced their next collective-bargaining agreement during the World Series like they did in 2006.  However, with the World Series just three days away, people in the loop aren't optimistic.   The two sides are meeting virtually every day and the biggest rancor appears to be surrounding Bud Selig's desire for hard slotting in the amateur draft.  It's hard to imagine that this will result in any kind of a work stoppage, but it does seem like they'll miss out on the great PR opportunity that they were able to capture five years ago.
  • We don't see the Rangers and Angels as trading partners because there's too much anxiety over being burned.  However, the Rangers used to admire Halos catcher Mike Napoli from a distance, and were able to trade for him immediately after the Blue Jays acquired him.  Davidoff asked Daniels if he kept an eye on players in the divison whom he couldn't acquire by trade but could hope would get dealt to a different club so he could pounce.  For Daniels, it's not that clear-cut, but he says that he checks in when someone he's interested in moves out of the AL West.
  • Baseball officials are increasingly convinced that righthander Yu Darvish will be posted to the major leagues, and industry folks wonder how much will teams pay.  The Red Sox paid more than $51MM five years ago to talk with Daisuke Matsuzaka, and that hasn't panned out for them. The expectation is that in light of Boston's disappointment with Matsuzaka, teams won't bid as much for Darvish.

AL West Notes: Rangers, Wilson, Feliz, Angels, A’s

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With tonight's victory, the Rangers became the first AL West team to win consecutive pennants since the A's won three straight American League titles between 1988 and 1990.  Here are a few news items from around the division….

  • Despite recent rumors, the Rangers say there's "no way" they'll throw money at CC Sabathia this offseason, reports Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com (Twitter links). If Texas does decide to go after a starter from outside the organization, it would probably be Yu Darvish.
  • "[C.J. Wilson] wants $100MM, and he's not getting that from us," a Rangers source tells Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com.  The source says that if Wilson leaves Texas for free agency, Alexi Ogando and Neftali Feliz would both be converted into starting pitchers next season.
  • The Angels may be close to a new television contract with FOX Sports, reports Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.  A filing from Major League Baseball (in the ongoing legal case with Frank McCourt) stated that the Halos are "expected to close a new transaction" in regards to a new TV deal.  Shaikin hears from sources that "no deal is imminent" but FOX and the Angels have been in negotiations.  Shaikin speculates that the contract could exceed the Rangers' recent 20-year, $1.6BB TV contract with FOX.
  • The Athletics were denied permission to interview Reds pitching coach Bryan Price, reports ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter link).  Price's contract in Cincinnati expires after next season.
  • Athletics scouts were against the December 2005 trade of then-prospect Andre Ethier to the Dodgers for Milton Bradley, tweets Tom Krasovic of West Coast Bias.

AL East Notes: Cashman, CC, Blue Jays, Darvish

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There's no shortage of news regarding AL East ballclubs so far this offseason, not the least of which is the Orioles' search for a new general manager. Click here for the latest on that story, and here are some other interesting items of note:

  • The Yankees will meet with GM Brian Cashman next week, and the sides are expected to hammer out a new contract without trouble, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Cashman's contract expired after this season.
  • Separately, Sherman examines which teams could be in on the bidding for Yankees starter CC Sabathia in the likely event of the left-hander opting out of his contract. As well, Sherman raises an interesting point: If some team swoops in with six- or seven-year offer, will the Yankees match? A case could be made against it, as the Bombers already have a few risky long-term deals on the books.
  • The Blue Jays do not require rival teams to seek permission to interview Toronto employees, explains Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. As we have already seen in a couple instances this offseason (and in offseasons past), many teams are not as liberal with this policy, but the Jays feel that they can attract strong employees with the promise of being able to move on if another opportunity arises.
  • Orioles player development director John Stockstill is in Japan to scout Yu Darvish, among others, a club source tells Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter link). Stockstill signed Koji Uehara, according to Connolly.
  • Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com has compiled a retrospective of Theo Epstein's tenure as Red Sox GM, listing Epstein's best and worst moves in trades, free agency and draft picks.
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