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Yu Darvish

NL West Notes: D’Backs, Barmes, Darvish, Dodgers

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The Diamondbacks finalized a new deal with Willie Bloomquist today and the move has had an impact for at least two NL West teams. Here are the details.

Quick Hits: Maddux, Maine, Jackson, Darvish

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The Orioles officially announced that they’ll name Dan Duquette their executive VP of baseball operations tomorrow. While that front office change was expected, the Twins’ decision to replace Bill Smith with Terry Ryan was most certainly not. Here are some notes from around MLB on yet another busy day for front office movement… 

Quick Hits: Moyer, Darvish, Yankees, Tigers

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Congratulations to the 2011 Gold Glove winners. Here are some notes from around MLB…

  • Brandon Phillips ($250K), Adrian Beltre ($100K) and Adrian Gonzalez ($100K) were among the winners to obtain bonuses for their fielding excellence, according to the AP (via SI.com).
  • Jamie Moyer threw for scouts last Thursday, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Reports on the left-hander, who’s nearly a year removed from Tommy John surgery, are excellent.
  • Patrick Newman of FanGraphs explains what you need to know about Yu Darvish, the Japanese starter who could be posted this offseason.
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs makes the case that teams should treat Darvish as a super two player by guaranteeing him two or three years at an average annual value of approximately $10MM.
  • Jim Margalus of South Side Sox isn't thrilled that the White Sox exercised Jason Frasor’s 3.75MM option and explains what the decision means for Chicago. 
  • The Yankees expect to be heavily involved in trade talks this offseason because they have prospects to trade and are willing to deal pitching, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). 
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters, including MLB.com's Jason Beck, that he'd like to re-sign free agent infielder Ramon Santiago. Though the Tigers like Santiago, they don't see him as an everyday solution.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says he’d like to re-sign free agents Ryan Madson and Jimmy Rollins if possible, according to Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "We've had discussions with the agents of both players," Amaro said.
  • Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest repeated that he can consider major expenditures this offseason, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.

Yankees Notes: Sabathia, Darvish, Montero, Garcia

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It's been a busy day for the Yankees. They've announced their extension with GM Brian Cashman and declined their option on Andrew Brackman, making the right-hander a free agent. Reactions to C.C. Sabathia's extension have continued streaming in and we have some more notes to pass along from Cashman's conversation with reporters. Most of the quotes below come via Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger:

  • By signing Sabathia, the Yankees added "the most important piece" of the offseason, Cashman said.
  • "Offense is not a problem with this club," Cashman said. He's right – the Yankees scored more runs than any MLB team but the Red Sox and their starting lineup returns in 2012, so pursuing Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols doesn't seem likely. 
  • The focus of the winter is "pitching, pitching, pitching," Cashman said.
  • Cashman said the organization is better-positioned to evaluate Japanese players than it was a few years ago. The Yankees could express interest in Yu Darvish, the Japanese right-hander who may be posted this offseason.
  • Jesus Montero's role with the Yankees has yet to be determined: he could DH, catch on a semi-regular basis or be a bat off of the bench. Cashman expects Montero to contribute in the Major Leagues.
  • Cashman said picking up Nick Swisher's $10.25MM option was an easy decision.
  • Agent Peter Greenberg says there’s mutual interest between the Yankees and free agent Freddy Garcia in working out a new deal, according to Mark Hale, George A. King III and Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Yankees would likely offer the Type B right-hander arbitration.
  • I examined the Yankees' offseason last week.

Nationals Notes: Johnson, Wang, Rodriguez, Darvish

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters on a conference call that the team will make an announcement about its 2012 manager within a few days. The team has conducted a series of interviews and will presumably announce that Davey Johnson will return to the bench next year. Here are more notes from Rizzo's conference call with:

  • The Nationals are indeed expected to make Johnson their manager, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
  • The team is corresponding with the representatives for right-hander Chien-Ming Wang, but the sides aren't close to a deal, according to Ladson (on Twitter). They discussed a contract extension earlier in October.
  • The Nationals haven't spoken to free agents Ivan Rodriguez or Livan Hernandez since early in the offseason, according to Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com. 
  • Washington would lose its 16th overall pick for signing a Type A free agent and that's something that Rizzo will factor into the team's decision-making process this offseason. 
  • Rizzo has not seen Yu Darvish in person in the last two years, according to Goessling. However, the Nationals have scouted the right-hander and it sounds as though they’re open to bidding on him if he’s posted.
  • Darvish is on Washington's radar and Nationals scouts have seen him pitch in person at least nine times, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reported earlier this month.

Agents Predict Darvish’s Posting Fee, Contract

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As of a few days ago, Nippon-Ham Fighters ace Yu Darvish was undecided about asking his team to post him as a means of moving to MLB for the 2012 season.  The 25-year-old righty posted a 1.44 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 0.19 HR/9 in 232 innings this year, and there will be a bidding frenzy if the Fighters post him.

In the posting system, MLB teams have until a certain date to submit bids for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the player.  MLB GMs have the difficult task of choosing a bid that will be the highest but won't be significantly higher than the second-best bid.  After the posting fee, the team must then sign the player to a contract.  The player's only leverage is to return to Japan, in which case the posting fee is returned to the MLB team and the process is over for the year.

Five years ago, the Red Sox won the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka for $51,111,111.  They then negotiated a six-year, $52MM contract with Scott Boras, bringing the total commitment to $103,111,111.  As we've seen with Boras' draft pick negotiations, he uses what little leverage he has to maximum advantage.  There was a point in the Dice-K talks where an agreement with the Red Sox did not seem likely.  Last year, the Athletics won the right to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma for $19.1MM, but the Rakuten Golden Eagles had to return the posting fee when the A's were unable to reach an agreement with agent Don Nomura.  Darvish is represented by Nomura and Arn Tellem of Wasserman Media Group.

The Fighters have a lot to gain financially by posting Darvish now.  Sure, they could wait until after the '12 or '13 seasons, but Darvish is healthy and at the top of his game right now.  Agents I spoke to were divided on whether Matsuzaka's posting fee is relevant information in trying to predict what Darvish would require.  Misinformation abounds from the Dice-K posting period, but most reports suggested $20-30MM bids until the Red Sox came in over $51MM.  Only the Seibu Lions know for sure what the second-highest bid was, but in hindsight Boston might have been able to win the rights at $35MM.  

Last week, I polled five agents and one team executive about Darvish's potential posting fee and contract.  Guesses on the posting fee ranged from $30-55MM, with the team executive making the highest prediction.  The average of the six guesses was $45MM.  As for the contract, most people predicted a five or six-year deal in the $72-75MM range.  One agent wondered if the winning team will "try to force some options down his throat," especially if it's the Blue Jays.

The bottom line: everyone I talked to expects a minimum of a $100MM commitment to acquire Darvish if he's posted this year.  It's possible we'll see as many as six $100MM commitments this offseason, not including extensions.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Pirates, Moyer, Oswalt

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C.J. Wilson wasn't at his best tonight in what may have been the final start of his Rangers career. He allowed five walks and four hits through 5 1/3 innings, but he allowed just two runs — enough to keep his team in the game and allow Texas to take a 3-2 series lead. Here are today's links…

Heyman On Friedman, Darvish, Yankees

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With the general manager carousel moving at full speed and free agency approaching quickly, there are plenty of rumors in Major League Baseball. Jon Heyman weighed in today at SI.com; here are some highlights: 

  • Heyman’s sources doubt the Angels would waste Andrew Friedman’s time if they weren’t prepared to offer him a job. However, someone close to Friedman doubts he would leave the Rays. Friedman tops the Angels’ long list of GM candidates.
  • One general manager expects C.J. Wilson to sign a deal worth $75MM over five years.
  • Yu Darvish is undecided about making the jump to MLB, but he’ll be in line for lots of money if he does make the leap. One general manager suggested Darvish would cost about $100MM between his contract and his posting fee and another GM agrees that he’ll cost “big bucks.”
  • The Yankees and GM Brian Cashman are making progress in their discussions about a new contract.
  • Free agent starter Freddy Garcia is popular with the Yankees’ front office and could return in 2012. The right-hander barely qualifies as a Type B free agent, according to our rankings.

Darvish Undecided About Jump To MLB

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There's a widespread assumption that Yu Darvish will be playing in the Major Leagues next year. But the 25-year-old right-hander took to his personal blog to explain that "nothing is decided."

"After the entire schedule is over, I will carefully think it over,” Darvish wrote, according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker. “As soon as I decide I will let everyone know.”

If Darvish asks Nippon Ham, his current team, to post him, MLB teams will bid for his exclusive rights. The team that wins the bidding will then have the chance to sign him to his first MLB contract. Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested yesterday that the Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals, Mariners and Royals are the early favorites to land Darvish, who would be among the offseason's top available arms.

Yu Darvish Links: Yankees, Jays, Rangers, Mariners

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Here's the latest on the Yu Darvish sweepstakes…

  • Talking to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes (Twitter link), an unnamed agent believes Darvish's posting fee will reach $50MM, and the right-hander will then sign a five-year, $75MM contract with the winning team.
  • Brian Cashman told Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York that the Yankees scouted Darvish last season in Japan, but unsurprisingly didn't comment about whether or not the team would be interested in bidding for the right-hander.
  • Yankee management is unlikely to pay an expensive posting fee for Darvish given the club's spotty history with Japanese pitchers, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).  For what's it worth, the "Yankees' scouts love Darvish." 
  • In another tweet, Sherman lists the Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals, Mariners and Royals as the favorites to land Darvish this winter, in that order.
  • The Mariners have scouted Darvish but, in the opinion of Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, the M's shouldn't make a bid since the team has so much young pitching coming up from the minors.  Stone also points out that "the Mariners have not become the haven for Japanese players that was predicted by some" when Hiroshi Yamauchi became the club's principal owner.  
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