More On Bonds
All the sportswriters have had a chance to weigh in on possible destinations for Barry Bonds in 2008. Here’s a summary.
- Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus seems the Padres and A’s as the top two possibilities.
- Fielding guru John Dewan rates Bonds’ defense ahead of Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, and Pat Burrell this year. He’s still bad, but maybe we shouldn’t rule out the NL after all.
- Bruce Jenkins says there’s no market but seems to consider Seattle a possibility. Interesting note: Jenkins also mentions that Bonds cleared waivers in August.
- Jack Curry of the New York Times likes the Angels, A’s, and Rangers.
- Before we start penciling Bonds into the Oakland lineup, Susan Slusser reminds us that Jack Cust is effective and cheap as the team’s DH.
- Rangers manager Ron Washington says he would’ve liked having Bonds on his team this year. However, he sees the A’s as the favorite.
- Kevin Kernan of the New York Post thinks this puts the Giants in the A-Rod sweepstakes. Would Rodriguez want to join a team that is basically rebuilding?
Giants Hope To Bring Vizquel Back For ’08
According to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, there are "strong indications" that the Giants want Omar Vizquel to man shortstop for them in 2008. Vizquel is earning $4MM this year; perhaps $3MM or so would get it done for next year. Vizquel would like to come back. If his goal is 3,000 hits, though, that will take at least three more seasons.
Retaining Vizquel is not what I suggested in my Giants Needs and Luxuries post a few days ago. I understand that Vizquel’s sparkling defense helps the pitching staff and his veteran leadership can’t be measured. (Though one could make the argument that the pitching staff would be equally if less directly helped by a shortstop with some offensive value).
My ’08 Giants are committed to rebuilding, and that means giving Omar’s 600 plate appearances to a young player. Even if the Giants don’t specifically have a shortstop prospect ready to go, they can get more ABs for Kevin Frandsen if Vizquel isn’t around. I likened it to Ryan Theriot, who also probably doesn’t have the arm for a long-term stint at shortstop but can get it done. Or, the Giants can attempt to trade for their shortstop of the future this winter.
All that said, keeping Vizquel for ’08 wouldn’t be terrible. I wouldn’t do it, but there are sensible reasons to bring him back at a discount for one more season.
Needs and Luxuries: San Francisco Giants
Time for a look at the 2008 Giants.
C – Bengie Molina
1B – Dan Ortmeier
2B – Ray Durham
SS – Kevin Frandsen
3B – Rich Aurilia
LF – Fred Lewis
CF – Dave Roberts/Rajai Davis
RF – Randy Winn/Nate Schierholtz
SP – Matt Cain
SP – Tim Lincecum
SP – Barry Zito
SP – Noah Lowry
SP – Kevin Correia/Jonathan Sanchez
Setup: Brad Hennessey/Tyler Walker
Closer: Brian Wilson
Needs
The Giants rank 13th in the league in OBP and 15th in SLG – and that includes 500 plate appearances of Barry Bonds. Take Bonds out of the picture in ’08 – a legitimate possibility – and you’re looking at the worst offense in the league.
Durham, Roberts, and Aurilia have been offensive black holes for the Giants, and they’ll be eating up $18.5MM as members of the ’08 club. Feliz and Vizquel have been terrible as well, but at least their contracts are up.
I have to stop right here and say that this team absolutely must write off 2008 as a complete rebuilding year. There’s just not enough offensive talent, young or old, to field a competitive team. When teams fully commit to a rebuild, like the Devil Rays, Marlins, or Nationals, unexpected good players typically emerge. The Giants need to find the next Dan Uggla or Carlos Pena.
In the infield, you’ve got two dead weight veterans and an open left side of the infield. I say you just use Frandsen at short all year. He may not have the arm for it but he could have a nice little Ryan Theriot season before shifting to second in ’09. Don’t give up on him if he has a bad two months. Stick Aurilia at third for lack of a better option, and use Ortmeier at first all year. Let him get comfortable at the position and not worry about losing his job.
The outfield is a jumble of bad veteran contracts and mildly promising youngsters. Here’s my plan. Ship off Winn and the $16.25MM remaining on his contract for 2008-09. He had a .775 OPS in ’07, respectable if he’s used in center. Eat $6MM of the contract – it’ll be worth it to free up precious playing time for players who will be part of the future. Once Winn is gone, relegate Roberts to firm fourth outfielder status when he’s healthy. (I’d say move his contract too, but let’s not get greedy).
That leaves some power in Schierholtz, a speed/power combo in Lewis, and blazing speed in Davis. Give these guys much-needed Major League reps and don’t be a slave to your own bad contracts.
So the 2008 need for the Giants is to truly commit to giving as much playing time to young players as possible. They have to find some cheap position players who are at least league average.
Luxuries
If we use the term luxury generously, we can label a few vets as such. Those would be Molina and Winn, who have bad contracts but played OK in ’07. If these guys can be moved for a positive return, it’s a no-brainer. If Sabean could duplicate his Matt Morris feat and unload the entire contracts, it would be huge.
The one true luxury, though, is starting pitching. You aren’t going to find many young 1-2 punches in baseball that are decidedly better than Cain/Lincecum. These two are the future – the main goal for ’08 is to not wreck their arms.
Lowry should’ve been traded at the deadline. I know McCovey Chronicles has been pushing for this for a while. Lowry had a 3.92 ERA this year despite a ton of baserunners. He’s doing an OK job trying to become a groundball/contact pitcher. He’s 27 and signed reasonably through 2010. The problem is that an elbow strain may cause other GMs to view him as damaged goods. That’s a shame, because he might’ve extracted one or two very good and much-needed position players given the terrible free agent market. Could Garrett Atkins, Brent Lillibridge, Edwin Encarnacion, Steven Pearce, Conor Jackson, or Jeff Clement be acquired? If Lowry can re-establish his health, that’s the route I attempt.
I don’t think the bullpen is terribly important for ’08. I’d like to see what Wilson can do with a closer job. Sanchez should be brought along in the rotation. Maybe make an Octavio Dotel-type signing, someone you can spin off in July.
Kosuke Fukudome Targeted By White Sox, Giants?
We’ve begun the Kosuke Fukudome Watch early here at MLBTR. A lot of good info was revealed in our May 2nd interview with Mike Plugh. A few months later Plugh wrote a more in-depth article about Fukudome at Baseball Prospectus. Fukudome will be a free agent this winter and doesn’t require a posting fee. The current estimate is $12-15MM annually over three or four seasons. He’s currently recovering from elbow surgery but will be ready by spring.
There has been some confusion regarding Fukudome’s position. While many have referred to him as a center fielder, Plugh told us he’s best in right field. Plugh said Fukudome could handle center but his defense would be questionable there. A return to the infield seems highly unlikely.
Fukudome’s position is an important question when it comes to the White Sox. They’ve got Jermaine Dye locked in at right field, and there’s no where else for him to go. They also want to try Josh Fields in left to leave room for Joe Crede at third. Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune says Fukudome could be an option for the Sox in center if they don’t sign Torii Hunter. Additionally, Susan Slusser tosses the Giants into the mix. Apparently Dave Roberts and Randy Winn wouldn’t be considered obstacles.
A review of previous Fukudome rumors: Will Carroll said back in April that the Red Sox were eyeing him. It seems the Sox would not have room for Fukudome though. Rogers speculated in May that the Cubs could get involved. Dan Graziano confirmed the Red Sox, Cubs, and White Sox while adding the Yankees to the list of suitors.
Bonds For Cust?
Scott Ostler has a suggestion in today’s San Francisco Chronicle: some kind of Barry Bonds for Jack Cust trade. How would this work, with Bonds becoming a free agent after the season? Cust, meanwhile, is under Oakland’s control for another five seasons or so.
Cust has easily been the Athletics’ most valuable hitter this year, despite spending April in the minors. Bonds’ season currently ranks 16th among all hitters for VORP even in only 458 plate appearances.
The Giants have a chance to save $700,000 this year by keeping Bonds from reaching 525 plate appearances. It’ll probably go right down to the wire. Preventing him from reaching the last incentive would seem petty, and could mark the end of Barry’s long relationship with the team. Problem is, no one can figure out another team that would have him.
Vizquel Claimed Off Waivers, Pulled Back
On August 16th, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark mentioned that Omar Vizquel, among many others, had cleared waivers. Stark’s colleague Buster Olney heard differently, however. According to Olney, Vizquel was indeed claimed but no deal was reached and he was withdrawn. Olney believes the Tigers may have made the claim, or perhaps the Indians as a block.
Vizquel still doesn’t strike out much, but his batting average dipped to .245 this year. He could’ve helped a contender though. I’m not sure whether the Elias Bureau will rate him a Type A or B free agent after this year, as he was solid in 2006.
Here’s a look at the updated Players Who Have Cleared Waivers post; Jack Wilson is out there for whoever missed out on Vizquel.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Damon, Glaus, Wells
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up; here are some rumor-related points of interest.
- As you know, it doesn’t make sense for the Yankees to keep both Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon around for 2008. It’s just not an efficent way to spend $29MM. Rosenthal says Damon would be open to waiving his no-trade clause, if the Yankees struck a deal with a team that fell under his 12-team protection. Damon is apparently open to regular playing time on teams not located on the West Coast. The White Sox, Phillies, Braves, or Astros might make sense, in my opinion. The Yanks’ ability to pull an exercise-and-trade with Abreu’s 2008 option is hindered by his full no-trade protection.
- Rosenthal believes the Blue Jays might aggressively shop Troy Glaus this winter. Glaus surprisingly cleared waivers recently. Glaus is holding all the cards – he has a full no-trade clause and a player option for 2009.
- The Rockies will pass on David Wells, but the Dodgers are still interested. The Rox might still go for Steve Trachsel if they opt for experience over potential.
- Craig Monroe seems to be an option for second-tier clubs, especially if he becomes a free agent. The Giants will pass.
Dodgers Acquire Mark Sweeney
The Dodgers acquired pinch-hitter extraordinaire Mark Sweeney from the Giants yesterday, which is notable because two rivals hadn’t struck a deal since 1985. The Giants will receive cash or a player to be named later.
The 37 year-old provides a needed left-handed bat, and can play first base and left field. He’s got about $280K left on his contract this year. He can still help against righties off the bench.
Barry Bonds In 2008
From his recent quotes, it appears that Barry Bonds has every intention of playing in 2008. You may recall that he asked the Giants for an easily attainable ’08 option this winter but couldn’t get it. There was even some chatter about Bonds wanting to play in ’09. At the least, he’ll need to play next year if the next goal is 3,000 hits. Assuming Bonds gets around 27 more hits this year, he’ll still be 57 short of the milestone. We’re talking late June/early July of ’08.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe asks the logical question: which team will have him? There are many factors to consider:
- Contract: Cafardo mentions that Bonds is paid $17MM this year. However, it’s more like $20MM if he reaches all of his plate appearance incentives. If Bonds can reach 525 PAs this year – which he should if he plays 135 games – he’ll earn $4.2MM in incentives on top of his $15.8MM base salary. Maybe no team will pay it, but Bonds will probably be asking for something close to $20MM to play in 2008. Only a handful of teams can afford such an expensive player.
- Indictment: The grand jury reconvenes in September, and Bonds is likely to be indicted on tax evasion and perjury charges. Bonds could also face suspension from Bud Selig or may just be wrapped up in court for a while. He could even face jail time sometime in ’08, I believe. His current contract allows the Giants to terminate if he’s indicted; a new one would have to have a similar provision.
Will the Giants finally move on from Bonds? That’s an open question. Bonds wants to stay, GM Brian Sabean probably wants to move on, and Giants owner Peter Magowan might want him to finish his career as a Giant. The Giants remain his most likely suitor.
Cafardo dismisses the A’s, Pirates, Yankees, Angels, Orioles, Padres, Twins, Mariners, and Tigers for various reasons. One suitor he didn’t mention: the Rangers. Bonds was apparently close to signing with them last winter.
Bonds And #755
An interesting fact occurred to me today after noticing Barry Bonds cranked #755 off Clay Hensley. Hensley tested positive for performance enhancers back in April of 2005. Seems more fitting than if Bonds had nailed one off Greg Maddux. Sometimes we forget the little people busted for performance enhancers. Fortunately Baseball’s Steroid Era is keeping track.
Is it possible that Bonds could crank #756 off a once-juiced pitcher too? Probably not, unless he enters a long slump until the Giants face the Brewers on the 24th. In that case he could nail one off Derrick Turnbow.