Philly Daily News: Burrell/Benitez Swap?
I think Giants fans have been pondering this trade for a while: Pat Burrell to the Giants for Armando Benitez. But now Marcus Hayes tells us that Burrell would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to play for San Francisco. Hayes indicates that Burrell could move back to first base for the Giants. Benitez would go to the Phillies as "bullpen help."
If it were just a true swap of these two players and their inflated salaries, it’s a big win for the Giants. They weren’t counting on much from Benitez anyway, so if you subtract his salary you are essentially getting Burrell for two years, $20MM. As maligned as Burrell is, he’s only 30 and he’s posted an .890 OPS for two years running. Yes, Burrell was bad with RISP this season (153 AB sample). Why you shouldn’t read too much into that sample: he hit .313/.429/.598 with RISP in 2005.
Benitez, I don’t think will bounce back. His top comparables, Scott Sullivan and Jose DeLeon, didn’t make it much past age 34. Still, if payroll flexibility is what Pat Gillick is after, one year and $7.6MM sounds a lot better than two years and $27MM.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Ted Lilly
Today let’s take a closer look at free agent southpaw Ted Lilly.
Lilly made $4MM this year, failing to hit any of his innings pitched incentives. He’ll turn 31 in January and should be able to snag a three-year contract without a problem. 2006 was not his best season despite the career high 15 wins; Lilly’s 2004 effort was better and included an All-Star appearance. He’s said publicly that he’d like to return to the Bay Area to play with the Giants or again with the A’s. The Jays have some interest in retaining him at the right price.
Performance-wise you’re getting a strikeout pitcher who’s tough to hit and battle-tested in the AL East. He’s a flyball pitcher and is prone to worse than average HRs allowed. His control’s a problem too, as Lilly walks about four batters per nine innings. After his fastball, Lilly mixes in an equal number of curves, sliders, and changeups. He’s tougher on lefties but not terribly so.
Some past history on Theodore Roosevelt Lilly:
1998:
July: Traded from Dodgers to Expos in deadline deal for Mark Grudzielanek and Carlos Perez.
Tossed 213.2 innings, including winter ball.
1999:
March: Couldn’t quite crack the Expo rotation.
May: Called up for a few weeks.
June/July: MRI on left shoulder shows no significant damage.
September: Called up again.
October: Shoulder surgery.
2000:
March: Traded to Yanks along with Jake Westbrook in Hideki Irabu deal.
Pitched mostly at Triple A as a 24 year-old.
2001:
April: Called up, whiffs 10 Red Sox. Remains in rotation.
August: Suspended for nailing Scott Spiezio with a pitch. Sent back to minors.
September: Called up, using his last option.
2002:
April: Makes team as a reliever/spot starter. Remains in rotation after injuries to starters.
Summer: Shuttles between starting and relief with Pettitte and El Duque injuries.
July: Traded to A’s in 3-team deal involving Jeff Weaver and Carlos Pena. Enters Oakland rotation. Hits DL later that month with inflamed left shoulder.
September: Returns from DL/rehab.
2003:
March: Reworks mechanics to take strain off shoulder.
July: With Lilly struggling in rotation, a trade rumor involving Kelvim Escobar surfaces. He stays put.
September: Misses start with back spasms.
November: Traded to Toronto for Bobby Kielty.
2004:
January: Signs two-year deal.
February: Reports to camp with sore wrist but remains healthy thereafter.
2005:
February: Misses time with left shoulder tendinitis.
April: Begins season on DL but makes April starts.
May: Pitching coach Brad Arnsberg discusses Lilly’s perceived lack of intensity.
July: Biceps tendinitis sends him to the DL again.
September: Comes off DL. Experiences shoulder blade discomfort.
2006:
January: Signs one-year, $4MM deal.
March: Makes change in follow-through. Later in month, experiences minor right shoulder injury.
April: Makes first start despite back/shoulder issues.
June: Leaves start with shoulder tightness.
August: Misses start with stiff neck. Later in month, has heated argument with manager John Gibbons after being pulled from awful start. Gibbons gets bloody nose.
October: Lilly files for free agency.
Well, that injury history definitely rules out Baltimore. Whoever signs Lilly is really going to have to take a long look at that left shoulder; he’s yet to throw 200 innings in the Majors.
2007 San Francisco Giants
Been missing my 2007 Team Outlooks? The Giants are next up. This would be a good place to give a shoutout to the premiere Giants blog out there, McCovey Chronicles. I definitely read up at this fine site before attempting my ’07 writeup. Another fine one: El Lefty Malo.
Brian Sabean’s contract obligations:
C – Eliezer Alfonzo – $0.33MM
C –
1B –
2B – Kevin Frandsen – $0.33MM
SS – Omar Vizquel – $4MM
3B –
1B/OF – Mark Sweeney – $0.95MM
1B – Lance Niekro – $0.33MM
IF – Tomas de la Rosa – $0.33MM
LF –
CF – Randy Winn – $4MM
RF – Todd Linden – $0.33MM
OF – Fred Lewis – $0.33MM
OF – Jason Ellison – $0.33MM
SP – Matt Cain – $0.328MM
SP – Noah Lowry – $1.115MM
SP – Matt Morris – $9.5MM
SP – Jonathan Sanchez – $0.33MM
SP – Tim Lincecum – $0.33MM
RP – Armando Benitez – $7.6MM
RP – Tim Worrell – $2MM
RP – Vinny Chulk – $0.3485MM
RP – Brad Hennessey – $0.33MM
RP – Kevin Correia – $0.33MM
RP – Scott Munter – $0.334MM
RP – Jack Taschner – $0.33MM
RP – Brian Wilson – $0.33MM
RP – Billy Sadler – $0.33MM
Buyouts/deferred money:
SP – Jamey Wright – $0.3MM
CF – Steve Finley – $1MM
SP – Kirk Rueter – $1.28MM
RF – Moises Alou – $1.5MM
LF – Barry Bonds – $5MM
Injured players:
C – Mike Matheny – $2.25MM + $1.5MM deferred
Now, I’m not guaranteeing that this payroll estimate is spot-on. It’s an estimate based on what I could dig up. Fortunately, the deferred money comes out of a different budget and the Giants are planning for an $85MM payroll in 2007. That means they have around $38MM committed and $47MM to spend. That, my friends, is some serious cash.
The Giants will need all that money given their numerous holes. Let’s start at catcher. Mike Matheny has post-concussion syndrome, and the prognosis is not so good. That leaves Alfonzo as the starter if the season were to open today. Which would be weird given that it’s October 13th.
Alfonzo, who will be 28 next season, looked like the second coming of someone good from June 3rd to July 28th. He had a .911 OPS over those 35 games. In the next 45 games, however, Alfonzo posted a .654 OPS. Alfonzo didn’t hit at all in the high minors prior to his callup. If not for a 35 game fluke, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. The man is not a starting catcher on a good team. There are plenty of Sabean-ish options out there; take a look at the market. In addition, Johnny Estrada is available via trade.
The Giants pretty much have nothing going on at first base. Lance Niekro‘s had about a full season’s worth of ABs in the bigs and Triple A just hasn’t translated. He’ll be 28 next year. Which free agents could play first? Gary Sheffield, Sean Casey, Nomar Garciaparra, and Craig Wilson come to mind. Odds of Shea Hillenbrand returning look slim. Tradewise Sabean could chase Mark Teixeira, Todd Helton, Richie Sexson, Ty Wigginton, Tony Clark, or Ben Broussard. Sexson seems like an attainable slugger.
Do the Giants bring Ray Ray back after a career year at age 34? Perhaps if the terms of the deal are short enough. Otherwise, it’s probably Kevin Frandsen Time. Frandsen will be 25 next year and hit will in Triple A.
Third base is another problem assuming Pedro Feliz looks to cash in on his 98 ribbies. Are GMs dumb enough to give this man $5MM? This isn’t 1993 anymore. .244/.281/.428 is really bad from a corner or most other positions. Rich Aurilia played 52 games at the hot corner this season, and wouldn’t mind returning to San Fran for his age 35 season. This is a reasonable solution for the right price. Giants fans can entertain thoughts of A-Rod and A-Ram in the meantime.
On to the outfield. Might as well give Linden a shot in right; he looked pretty good this year. Winn is entrenched in center, though his .249/.296/.349 line after the break is worrisome. As for Mr. Bonds? Signs seem to be pointing toward his exit, but maybe all this talk is just posturing. If Bonds would come back for anything close to $10MM, I’d do it in a heartbeat. But I don’t sign the paychecks.
If Bonds leaves, all of this excess cash has to go somewhere. One could see Sabean entering the Soriano/Lee sweepstakes to replace him. He could hit the trade market for Adam Dunn, check out this OBP thing everyone’s been talking about. Manny Ramirez might be had, as well as Carl Crawford or Pat Burrell. I have to say, one surefire way to change the topic from Bonds would be a Manny trade.
I don’t think much needs to be done with the rotation. The Giants have some serious young studs and the requisite bearded innings eater. I don’t doubt Cain, but can Sanchez and Lincecum be above average as rookies? Can Lowry stay healthy and return to form? These kids won’t go deep into games, so Hennessey would get plenty of work. While I might leave the rotation alone, Sabean will probably pick up one guy. I can see a Gil Meche or Vicente Padilla or something. Who knows, maybe he’s saving his money for Daisuke Matsuzaka. Bonds attention diversion #2.
The bullpen isn’t looking impressive, but whatcha gonna do? Benitez and Worrell can’t be counted on, and the other guys are unproven/unimpressive. Like many teams with crappy bullpens, the Giants don’t have great free agent options. I know some would call this middle reliever free agent class deep, but it looks like a crapshoot to me. Maybe some guys like Kline or Stanton will be resigned. Closerwise you’re looking at Eric Gagne and even bigger question marks.
This offseason should be a fine test for Brian Sabean. He’s got tons of money and a host of vacancies. Will the team really get younger and healthier? Time will tell.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Luis Gonzalez
It’s been reported in multiple papers that the Diamondbacks will not be offering left fielder Luis Gonzalez a contract for 2007. He’ll join a robust free agent left fielder market this winter.
The average left fielder posts an OPS in the .810-.825 range, while Gonzalez stands at .824 this season. A second half doubles surge, which included a .906 OPS, has brought him up to that mark after a subpar first half in the power department. Baseball Prospectus projects a .266/.355/.463 line from him next year (that’d be an .818 OPS in his age 39 season). Such a performance would justify a one-year deal for $2.5MM, according to BP.
According to an Arizona Republic article, Gonzalez could play for his hometown Devil Rays but probably prefers to remain in the NL. The Cardinals would be a pretty good fit if they chose not to rely on Chris Duncan. The Giants might be another possibility.
Will Bonds Hot Streak Affect Future?
Since the beginning of August, Barry Bonds has been on a tear. He’s hitting .329/.459/.709 over those 27 games. The slugging ranks 4th among Major Leaguers, behind Travis Hafner, Ryan Howard, and Adam LaRoche.
Overall, Bonds’s 1.001 OPS this season ranks 11th in baseball, right behind Miguel Cabrera. Any reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated. Bonds has appeared in 112 games this season, or about 81% of the Giants’ contests. The 130 game pace beats preseason expectations. He also sports the game’s best OBP at .462. The OBP leaderboard is littered with similarly slow-footed sluggers, so we shouldn’t hold that against him too much. The one true flaw in the 42 year-old’s game is his left field defense.
Aside from Ryan Howard, Bonds has been the game’s hottest hitter over the last week. It’s sparked more debate about his future. Bonds says he’d like to stay, but it’s unclear whether the Giants want him back to pursue Hank Aaron’s record. A lot of folks are dismissing the once-popular destination of Oakland because of Frank Thomas‘s resurgence. But if Thomas sticks to his desire for a two-year deal, the A’s seem likely to let him walk. If they can secure Bonds as their DH for less than $10MM it could be a steal.
The Yankees are an intriguing option if they choose to let Gary Sheffield go and use Giambi or Bonds at first base. Same goes for the Red Sox, who could stick David Ortiz at first and create the most dangerous trio in baseball. Bonds could also fit with the Tigers, Mariners, or Rangers in ’07. The Dodgers could be a long shot; they could use Bonds at first base for a year if Nomar Garciaparra departs.
Trade To Padres Likely For David Wells
As you well know, the Padres are the frontrunners to acquire David Wells by midnight tonight. The name that’s been bandied about is catcher George Kottaras. Keep an eye on tonight’s 7:05 contest between the Portland Beavers and the Fresno Grizzlies to see whether Kottaras starts for the Beavers. If not, he’s probably the guy. He went 0 for 4 last night. According to the Boston Globe, the Dodgers could have Wells if they would step in with one of Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, or James Loney.
Here’s the tricky part. Based on info from a Steve Phillips article a year ago, I learned that "all 40-man roster players must go through waivers in order to change teams even if they are in the minor leagues." All four prospects mentioned above are indeed on the 40-man roster. So how does this work? The key, I believe, is slipping the player through as a player to be named later. The rule for waiver trades is that the PTBNL cannot be an active Major League player. So, the Red Sox can acquire a top-notch prospect in exchange for Wells if they are willing to wait until spring to see him in a Sox uniform. I think these rules debunk the notion that the Red Sox could somehow acquire Adam Wainwright in a deal. It’s a moot point, as Wells won’t play in St. Louis.
The Padres are three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. San Diego currently holds a half-game lead over the Phillies for the wild card. If the Padres were to sneak into the playoffs once again, their playoff rotation would boast Jake Peavy, Chris Young, David Wells, and Woody Williams. All have pitched decently or better this month; it would be a fairly deep group. And fifth starter Clay Hensley has a 1.82 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this month, so maybe he’d be in the mix instead of Williams.
Mets Could Still Add Alou
According to Jon Heyman at Sports Illustrated, some Mets officials still hope to trade for Moises Alou even with Shawn Green already in the fold. An independent source of mine has verified that given Cliff Floyd‘s inability to stay healthy, the Mets would still like to add Alou.
Alou has spent plenty of time in his career at both outfield corner positions. He’s playing right field for the Giants right now more out of necessity, as his defense can be ugly at age 40. He’ll be a free agent after this season, and still mashes when he’s on the field. He’s hitting .292/.350/.522 this season in 247 ABs. Alou has dealt with a myriad of injuries this season, and would make a great candidate to play in the AL for the first time in his career next season. He’s making $6MM this year.
San Francisco is five games out after last night’s win and have won seven of their last nine.
Red Sox Trade Rumors
It’s tough to get anything out of Boston these days; Theo Epstein has plugged all of his leaks. Let’s see what we can piece together though.
According to Sean McAdams of The Providence Journal:
"Friends of the Rocket insist he’s sorry that he chose the Astros over the Red Sox." McAdams mentions that Clemens would love a trade to Boston if it could be done without infuriating the Houston fanbase. Also, a source of mine tells me that the Mets have inquired about Clemens.
Then there’s the possible three-way trade with the Rockies and Padres. The Padres would get Mike Lowell, the Red Sox would get Ryan Shealy and a starter, and who knows what the Rockies would get.
Don’t get that rumor confused with the other three-team scenario from Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe. In that case, the Red Sox get Julio Lugo and Scott Linebrink, the Padres get Mike Lowell, and the D-Rays get prospects.
Plus, Jayson Stark mentioned last night that the Red Sox are "making a late run at Alfonso Soriano." He doesn’t have much more than that, but it can’t be dismissed. Stark has also connected Boston to Jason Schmidt and Brad Lidge.
Mets Trade Rumor: Milledge For Oswalt Or Schmidt
Jon Heyman busts out a big one early Monday morning: the Mets are in "serious talks" for Jason Schmidt or Roy Oswalt. The key to any deal would be Lastings Milledge.
Heyman mentions that Brian Bannister would be needed to pry Oswalt away but not Schmidt. He also says Aaron Heilman could be used to "enhance" a deal.
It seems now that Oswalt really is in play, which is strange given the Astros’ lack of depth behind Roger Clemens. Speaking of which, why not put the Rocket on the block instead?
Giants Acquire Shea Hillenbrand
Many teams were interested, but Brian Sabean and the Giants prevailed in the Shea Hillenbrand sweepstakes late Friday night. The deal marks Sabean’s first of the year and first ever with J.P. Ricciardi (as far as I can tell).
The average National League first baseman has hit .286/.366/.504 this season, while Hillenbrand is at .301/.342/.480. While he’s a below average fix at first, it sure as hell beats the .714 OPS the Giants have gotten out of the position thus far.
Hillenbrand moves from a ballpark that inflates home runs by about 18% and batting average about 5% for right-handed hitters. His new home has a similar effect on batting average but suppresses right-handed home runs by about 4%.
The pitchers Hillenbrand faced this year with the Blue Jays allowed an aggregate line of .260/.345/.416. Every Giants hitter with more than 200 plate appearances has faced tougher pitching than that. Another interesting fact: Hillenbrand is one of the most likely double play victims in the game.
Defensively, the Fielding Bible rates Hillenbrand as the fourth-worst first baseman in baseball, ahead of Giambi, Delgado, and Sexson. The Giants currently boast the third-best defensive efficiency mark in the NL, however.
The Blue Jays threw in Vinnie Chulk in the deal and received Jeremy Accardo. Baseball Prospectus notes that Accardo "finally made The Show on the basis of a mid-90s fastball, a developing slider, and a filthy cutter that some compare to Mariano Rivera’s bat-sawing Frisbee."
Accardo appears to be an upgrade from Chulk, who is three years older and has mediocre stuff.