James Shields Close To Multiyear Deal
UPDATE, 1-23-08 at 4:49pm: If all of the Rays’ three one-year options on Shields are exercised, the deal could reach seven years and $44MM. Certainly a unique deal.
UPDATE, 1-23-08 at 9:15am: Topkin says the deal could be worth more than $40MM over seven years with incentives. $12MM and the first four seasons are guaranteed.
FROM 1-22-08 at 3:32pm:
According to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times, a six or seven-year extension for starter James Shields should be done tonight. Topkin notes that it’s odd for a young pitcher with two years of service time to get such a long deal. The Rays must really love him.
His ’07 season was very impressive. At age 25 he threw 215 innings in the toughest division in baseball and posted a 3.85 ERA with a 5.1 K/BB ratio. That’s not something you see every day.
Needs and Luxuries: Tampa Bay Rays
Up next in our Needs and Luxuries series, the Rays. Here’s how they’re set up.
C – Dioner Navarro
1B – Carlos Pena
2B – Akinori Iwamura
SS – Jason Bartlett
3B – Evan Longoria
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – B.J. Upton
RF – Cliff Floyd/Rocco Baldelli/Jonny Gomes
DH – Cliff Floyd/Rocco Baldelli/Jonny Gomes
SP – Scott Kazmir
SP – Jamie Shields
SP – Matt Garza
SP – Andy Sonnanstine/Edwin Jackson/Jeff Niemann/Jason Hammel/J.P. Howell
SP – Andy Sonnanstine/Edwin Jackson/Jeff Niemann/Jason Hammel/J.P. Howell
Setup: Al Reyes
Closer: Troy Percival
Needs:
The ’07 Rays ranked 8th in the league in OBP and 4th in SLG. How can they find the needed OBP improvement? Delmon Young‘s sub-par OBP is gone, replaced with the Gomes/Floyd/Baldelli rotation. Let’s consider any Baldelli contribution as gravy and just look at what Gomes and Floyd will provide. Gomes had a .322 OBP last year and owns a career mark of .335. He draws plenty of walks, between 9-13% of his plate appearances. To become an above average Major Leaguer he is going to have to make better contact and get his batting average up. Floyd had a fine .373 OBP in ’07 and has a .359 career mark. I think the planned three-man RF/DH rotation is a fine idea for a team not quite ready to contend. It would be very interesting to see the Rays bring Bobby Abreu back next winter though.
Navarro was insanely bad before the break in ’07 but had a solid .815 OPS after. He’s just 24 in February. Another improvement should come with Iwamura spending all year at second base. More of him plus Longoria’s projected .350 OBP instead of Ty Wigginton push this team’s OBP even higher. No more Josh Wilson, more games for Upton, and the addition of Willy Aybar are other sources of OBP. The ’08 Rays are primed to reach base more often.
While the metric isn’t perfect, the Rays’ 5.20 starter ERA tells you something. However, hope is on the way. The rotation is already fronted by sub-4 ERA beasts Kazmir and Shields. New addition Garza should remain above average. Then the goal is to find the best of Hammel, Jackson, Sonnanstine, Howell, and Niemann. While these aren’t household names there’s a lot of talent in that group. The pitching pipeline is stacked with five-star prospects David Price and Wade Davis plus a four-star Jacob McGee. The "need" for ’08 is to let young pitchers get their big league reps in. The Rays don’t need a veteran free agent stealing valuable innings – instead save the money and bring in a difference-maker for ’09.
The Rays’ bullpen was league-worst in ’07, but they’ve already taken steps to address it. The last piece of the puzzle may be to find a lefty like Trever Miller. But this ‘pen will be much improved with Percival, Eduardo Morlan (acquired in the Delmon Young trade), a full year of Dan Wheeler, and the starting pitching runoff (Niemann could be interesting). Maybe the big move for a Lidge/Nathan/K-Rod makes sense next winter.
Luxuries:
Let’s see here. The best farm system in baseball (aided by all the losing) has the Rays overflowing with young talent. Pitching, hitting, you name it. Oh, and they have the #1 pick again this summer (read about some options for that here). You can never have enough pitching, so the Rays should probably just keep all the arms. A healthy Baldelli would be an interesting trade chip. Bartlett or Iwamura could become expendable if Reid Brignac makes strides.
The other luxury for Tampa Bay is payroll flexibility. They have no bad contracts. They could make a couple of big-time signings in the winter of 2008-09 and still have one of the lowest payrolls in the game. ’08 is where the Rays finally crack .500. ’09 is where they start showing the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays that they’re not messing around, and reach the playoffs for the first time. This bandwagon is picking up steam.
Odds and Ends: Hinske, Doumit, Colon, Greene
It’s up to an impressive 5.7 degrees where I am, but I still don’t think I’ll be going outside much today. Hence, some odds and ends.
- Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald believes Eric Hinske might sign with the Diamondbacks this week. The 30 year-old former ROY has a career line of .255/.336/.434, with much better work against righties.
- John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus says the Red Sox are interested in the Pirates’ Ryan Doumit. However Perrotto says the Bucs are reluctant to trade the versatile Doumit, who turns 27 in April. Only past Doumit rumor I can find was from Will Carroll in May of ’06, saying he and Oliver Perez were being dangled to the Phillies.
- Perrotto believes the Royals could sign Bartolo Colon if he’ll take a one-year deal; that may be true for several clubs. Paul Hoynes reports that the Indians watched Colon pitch, but weren’t impressed with his sub-90 velocity. Hoynes says Kris Benson will have another throwing session and the Tribe will be in attendance.
- According to Marc Topkin, the Rays are talking with lefty reliever Trever Miller. The two sides haven’t agreed on the term yet.
- Padres GM Kevin Towers commented about the team’s rejected long-term overtures toward shortstop Khalil Greene. Towers brought a three or four year proposal to Greene but does not expect anything to get done. He stated Greene’s possible desire to be on the East Coast as a factor.
- Vince Gennaro does an economic analysis of the Johan Santana rumors, indicating that the acquisition makes the most sense for the Mets.
Rays Dealings: Pena, Kazmir, Shields
We discussed the Carlos Pena deal here, but now we have the breakdown via Marc Topkin. He’ll get $6MM in ’08, $8MM in ’09, and $10.125MM in ’10. Meanwhile fellow Boras client Matt Holliday will get $9.5MM in ’08 and $13.5MM in ’09. Holliday may be the superior player, but is he 60% better? Seems Pena just wanted the security and likes Tampa Bay.
Topkin wrote earlier today that Scott Kazmir expected to have an arbitration hearing with the Rays. However, Kazmir and the Rays were able to agree on a $3.785MM salary for ’08. Avoiding a hearing might help a bit if the Rays attempt to sign Kazmir long-term in the future.
Topkin adds that the Rays are trying to sign Jamie Shields to a six or even seven-year deal (and he’s not even arbitration-eligible yet). I believe he’s not due for free agency until after the 2011 season. Marc Lancaster says it could be a five or six year deal with Shields and "it may be wrapped up within the next week."
Carlos Pena Signs Three-Year Deal
According to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times, Carlos Pena has signed a three year deal worth about $24MM. The deal buys out one year of free agency.
If the amount is accurate, the Rays have a serious bargain on their hands. I was guessing this would cost $36MM. Despite all the concerns about Pena’s Boras representation, he’s staying in Tampa Bay through 2010.
Signings Galore
Tons of one-year agreements were reached recently, which was to be expected. These are all players under team control rather than free agents, so we knew they weren’t signing elsewhere. The options are to sign a one-year deal, sign a multiyear deal, or go to a hearing if no agreement can be reached.
- Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Brad Lidge, Mark Teixeira, Joe Crede, Juan Rivera, Huston Street, and others reached agreements recently.
- The Jays gave Scott Downs a three-year, $10MM deal. The deal buys out two years of free agency, which makes it a little more palatable than when I thought it was buying out one.
- Scott Kazmir may have to throw down with the Rays.
Rays Acquire Aybar, Fontaine For Ridgway
The St. Petersburg Times reports that the Rays acquired infielder Willy Aybar today along with Chase Fontaine for Jeff Ridgway. DRays Bay caught wind of this one several days ago.
Aybar is out of options, so he’ll stick with the big club as a super-utility guy. He can bridge the gap at third base if Evan Longoria needs a little time. Aybar would be most interesting at second; he’ll be 25 and sports a career OPS over .800. However a few years ago Baseball America questioned whether he could handle second base defensively long-term. Regardless, if Aybar can get past the substance abuse problems this could be a steal.
BA doesn’t expect the 22 year-old Fontaine to stick at shortstop; he might have to move to second eventually. He’s considered a line-drive hitter.
Ridgway is a 27 year-old southpaw reliever; Frank Wren sold low on Aybar if this is all he could get.
Odds and Ends: Aybar, Wang, Selig
How about some late morning odds and ends? You don’t really have a choice, do you.
- The Rays have talked to the Braves about acquiring Willy Aybar, according to Marc Lancaster. Aybar has had some off the field problems. But he turns 25 in March and could still be a useful player.
- Reader Yu Hsing Chen checks in from Taiwan with news that Chien-Ming Wang might be heading to an arbitration hearing with the Yankees. MLBTR had 228 visits from Taiwan yesterday – welcome! Taiwan is our fifth biggest traffic source, behind the U.S., Canada, UK, and Japan.
- According to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, the Dodgers have spoken to free agents Mark Sweeney and Rudy Seanez about bringing them back, but the discussions have stalled.
- Bud Selig’s contract extended through 2012. Thoughts?
Carlos Pena Could Sign Long-Term
The St. Petersburg Times’ Rays blog has a note up about first baseman Carlos Pena. (Hat tip DRays Bay.) Pena is under team control through the 2009 season, but a multiyear extension is a possibility. The post says Pena will probably earn in the $4.5-7.5MM range in ’08. In ’09 he’d probably get up to the $12MM+ range.
Maybe the Rays could work out a three-year, $36MM extension to buy out one year of free agency? There was an erroneous report in late November that Pena had rejected a three-year, $30MM extension. Pena is represented by Scott Boras, who didn’t seem optimistic about a multiyear deal in early December. Boras had all kinds of debatable quotes about Pena in September.
Neal On Garza Trade
I recently named La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune as Rumor Royalty for the Twins. He answered a few questions for MLBTR.
MLBTR: Given the loss of Carlos Silva and probable trade of Santana, was it wise for the Twins to send Matt Garza to the Rays?
Neal: The Twins needed to address their offense. They were deficient last season at third base, left field and, on the days Joe Mauer wasn’t available, designated hitter. Scouts from other organizations keep talking about Delmon Young‘s 40-homer potential, and it was nice to hear Brendan Harris say, "everyone has to pull their weight at the dish," on the day of the trade. I’ve covered this team for 10 years and have seen a lot of bad offense.
You can’t blame the Twins for not re-signing Silva, but you wonder why they didn’t trade him during the season when the Phillies and other teams were interested.