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D-Rays Complete Deal With Dodgers

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After successfully completing the Danys Baez trade in January, the Dodgers and Devil Rays have matched up again on a multi-player swap.  This time L.A. sent Jae Seo, Dioner Navarro, and a PTBNL to the D-Rays for Toby Hall and Mark Hendrickson.

With a .258 batting average on balls in play, Hendrickson has been the 11th luckiest starter in baseball this year.  Given the D-Rays’ team BABIP of .316, we can be fairly confident that the 32 year-old southpaw will not maintain his hit rate of 8.13 per nine.  His peripherals are otherwise unimpressive – 3.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9.  Prior to this season, Hendrickson had allowed almost 11 hits per nine innings in the Majors.  His control is better than this, but he’s in for a steep decline overall. 

Despite an ERA near 6, I’m not sure Jae Seo is much worse than Hendrickson.  Though no one seems to trust Seo to succeed, he has managed a 3.85 career ERA in almost 400 innings leading up to this season.  Hendrickson doesn’t seem like a significant upgrade, especially half a season worth of him.

The exchange of Toby Hall for Dioner Navarro is another clear win for Tampa Bay.  Navarro is still just 22 and hasn’t had a full trial in the Majors.  Any backstop that young who can draw a walk 10% of the time has value.

I think this is a disappointing move for the Dodgers.  While it’s true they may not miss Navarro or Seo, Hendrickson is not the #3 starter the team needs to run away with the NL West.

D-Rays Shopping Crawford

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Back on December 5th, a source close to Tampa Bay’s scouting department threw out the idea that Carl Crawford could be dealt.  In particular, the Devil Rays had interest in 23 year-old righthander Ervin Santana.  Despite new management since then, the rumor has picked up steam.

My source tells me that talks have resumed between the Devil Rays and Angels and the Halos may even consider adding a second prospect with Santana to acquire Crawford.  Brandon Wood is a possibility. 

The Rays would like to deal an outfielder now with a Delmon Young callup in the cards for September or Opening Day 2007.

In his sophomore season, Santana has sharpened his control and lessened his home run rate to become a solid #3 starter behind Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey.  Component ERA says Santana’s 4.32 ERA should actually be closer to 3.29 based on his peripherals.

Crawford is at .303/.349/.454 after 56 games, well ahead of PECOTA’s .287/.321/.426 projection.  He’s signed for 2007-09 for a total of $17.5MM, while PECOTA puts his worth at about $21MM over those three seasons.  The Rays know they can leverage their outfield surplus to add a solid young starter behind Scott Kazmir. 

What To Do With Delmon Young

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By now, we’ve all seen the video of Delmon Young’s bat flip.  At least, ESPN was calling it a flip before the video came out.  They’ve kind of quieted on that now that we saw that Young really whipped that sucker.

Intent to harm is still a question mark…but when you throw a wooden object at that speed end over end in the direction of someone, you have to realize the distinct possibility of injury.  This eyewitness account stresses that he tossed and did not fling the bat, but I vote fling. 

The Young incident is far worse than Roberto Alomar’s hocker.  In comparison, I don’t know why we got so worked up over that.  Sure, it was gross and incredibly disrespectful, but Hirschbeck was never in harm’s way.  The two are actually friends now.

Buster Olney made the point that if you suspend steroid users for 50 games, Young deserves at least as long.  Because steroid users are not putting anyone else in danger (except perhaps their friends and loved ones).  Kenny Rogers got 20 games for his cameraman thing.  How does this compare?  Young’s infraction is probably worse.  I think we are looking at 40-50 games, which will definitely stunt his growth.  The Devil Rays will probably wait until 2007 to call him up. 

Angels Interested In Ruben Sierra

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Hold on to your hats, kids – the Angels almost acquired Ruben Sierra the other day.  The L.A. Times has made it known that the Halos need a lefty bat off the bench and are willing to part with Esteban Yan or Kevin Gregg.  Apparently one of those two intrigues the Twins enough to toss Sierra their way. 

That plan may have been dashed by Sierra’s strained hamstring, however.  At this point it’s possible that the Twinkies release him and give his spot to Jason Kubel (fantasy leaguers, take note).  If Sierra isn’t released, he’ll start the season on the DL.  So the Angels may have to look for another trading partner for their swap.

Halos Heaven also indicates that Tampa Bay could make a play for one of the relievers.  Yan was decent for the D-Rays back in 2001-02, and the loss of Shinji Mori creates a need.

In addition, the Angels plan to trade Chris Bootcheck early in the season for whatever needs arise.  The 27 year-old righty has only seen 29 innings of Major League action.  The former college pick has been a disappointment thus far, posting a 5.42 ERA in his fourth try at Triple A. 

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Breaking News: Baez To Dodgers

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This just in: the Devil Rays have traded righthanded relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter plus a player to be named later to the Dodgers for starting pitching prospects Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany.

Ken Rosenthal had a whiff of the deal earlier this afternoon, and it’s a variation on the trade rumor we reported back on Tuesday.  Jackson and Tiffany had fallen out of the Dodgers’ top ten prospect list.  Before the 2005 season, Jackson ranked 3rd and southpaw Tiffany 10th.

Edwin Jackson brings a mid 90s heater and dangerous slider to the table.  Despite throwing 55 innings of 8.62 ball in Triple A in 2005, Jackson is likely to see some starts for the Devil Rays at the Major League level in 2006.  Baseball America ranked him the Dodgers’ #1 prospect in 2004 after a sparkling Double A season at the tender age of 19.  Jackson has been inconsistent since then and has yet to succeed above Double A.

Chuck Tiffany throws a high 80s fastball, big curve ball, and circle changeup.  He pitched 110 innings of 3.93 ball in high A ball in ’05, striking out almost 11 hitters per nine innings.

You can view my breakdown of Danys Baez here.  He’s a solid insurance policy for Eric Gagne, although both pitchers hit free agency after 2006.  Lance Carter’s claim to fame is making an All-Star team by default in 2003 after saving 15 games with a 4.05 ERA for the Devil Rays in the first half.  He has good control and doesn’t strike people out.  Dodger Stadium won’t hide his home run tendencies. 

 

Aubrey Huff To Houston?

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Got a good one today.  I admit I was skeptical at first, but an independent source verified the rumor.

It seems that Arizona, Houston, Los Angeles, and Tampa Bay have some sort of deal in the works.  It is known that Jayson Werth and Aubrey Huff are involved, but the other players have not yet been revealed.  Apparently Werth is headed to Tampa Bay or Arizona – my sources differ in opinion here.

Both sources indicated that Aubrey Huff will be joining the Astros.  Such a move would certainly cloud up the Astros’ 1B/OF situation.  They’d have Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell, Jason Lane, Willy Taveras, Preston Wilson, and Huff.  We know that Bagwell may not be able to play, and Lane and Taveras are trade candidates.  Huff mainly played right field and first base for the Devil Rays this year.

UPDATE: It now looks to be a three team deal with the Diamondbacks, Devil Rays, and Astros involved (Werth is out of the picture). Huff to the Astros is still the main piece, and the deal supposedly is contingent on Bagwell retiring and freeing up the insurance money.  That’s all for now.

Baez To Dodgers?

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Tony Jackson of the Los Angeles Daily News reported a new Danys Baez rumor today.  Apparently, the Dodgers have inquired on him given Eric Gagne’s impending free agency.  Of course, Baez is due for a big contract himself when he hits free agency after 2006.

These talks are still preliminary, but I was able to uncover some more info from a source close to the Devil Rays.  Word from that end is that Edwin Jackson and Dioner Navarro would go to Tampa Bay in a deal for Baez and Toby Hall.  The Dodgers may find Navarro expendable with top prospect Russell Martin perhaps a year away.

As mentioned on this site a week ago, the Baez for Aaron Heilman rumor wasn’t equal value for the Mets.  This possibility seems more reasonable to me. 

Buzz Around The Game

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Let’s take a look at what some other sources are reporting today on the rumor front.

Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post mentions that Marquis Grissom’s agent said he will sign with the Cubs.  When you look at Grissom’s 2005, there’s not much to like.  He doesn’t get on base and he’s pushing 40.  On the flip side, Grissom mashed lefties to the tune of .315/.356/.577 in 2004 and he’d make a great platoon partner for Jacque Jones. 

UPDATE: You probably assumed this, but I’ve verified with a reliable source that the Grissom deal is for one year and will be incentive-based.  Nothing unexpected, but worth a mention.

The Mets are apparently finalizing a deal for Danys Baez where they’d give up either Jae Seo or Aaron Heilman plus prospects.  In my opinion, this trade is going to weaken the Mets in 2006.  I’ve projected Baez to post an ERA near 4.  Click here to read MetsBlog’s take.

From my inbox today: "You would be crediable if your rumors actually came true."  Why do some people spend so much time writing long, incoherent emails about how they don’t like my site?  Just stop reading it if you don’t like it.

Dave Kaplan of WGN Radio Chicago has reported that the Cubs are in discussions for Barry Zito.  Wouldn’t be bad to see a durable pitcher on the North Side of Chicago to complement Zambrano.

As you’ve certainly read, Miguel Tejada still wants out.  More on details on teams in play later today.

New Manny Scenario Discussed?

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A source close to the Mets organization has supplied me with a possible trade scenario that is being discussed.  It’s complicated, but I thought I’d put it out there.

Mets trade: Aaron Heilman, Cliff Floyd, Victor Diaz, Brian Bannister
Mets get: Manny Ramirez

TB trades: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright
TB receives: Aaron Heilman, Victor Diaz, Bronson Arroyo

Red Sox trade: Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox receive: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright, Cliff Floyd, Brian Bannister

Wow.  I’m not sure if this is any more plausible than the other complicated possibilities floating around, but this is a solid source.  Let’s see if it passes the reality test.

The Mets give up Heilman, Floyd, Diaz, and Bannister for Manny.  That’s a huge bounty, but the only real gem there is Heilman.  Plus, Manny is still a superstar.  Diaz is a good outfield prospect, and Bannister is a B level starter with a low ceiling.  Floyd is a year away from free agency and expendable if Manny is acquired.  The Mets could always try to get Manny and keep Floyd, but Floyd hasn’t played RF since 2002.  I would say this portion is not too far-fetched.

How about Tampa Bay’s side of things?  First off, my guess is that upper management would be reluctant to package Lugo and Gathright together.  As with the Huff/Baez rumors, why not just trade them separately and maximize the return?  The demand is certainly there.  Lugo is a hot commodity right now, and the Rays have been asking for a lot of Gathright (Scott Olsen?).  Arroyo would make a great #2 for TB; I’ve projected him to lead the Red Sox in wins in 2006.  The team doesn’t have a need for Diaz in a stacked outfield.  Then again, he’d be a decent fit at first base.  They’d probably love to have Heilman in the rotation or closing games.  Overall, I’d label this part of the trade as somewhat questionable.

The Red Sox are basically getting three quality Major Leaguers in return for a superstar and a promising young starter.  Given Floyd’s injury record and impending free agency, I can see his inclusion.  Gathright hasn’t proven anything at the Major League level yet; only Lugo is a known quantity, and he’s also got free agency looming.  So if you look at it that way, things seem fair for the Red Sox.  The Mets might even have to throw in some cash to make this work for the Sox.       

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