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The Opener

The Opener: Luzardo, Buehler, Pending Contracts

By Leo Morgenstern | December 30, 2024 at 8:26am CDT

The Opener is back after a brief hiatus. Here are three things to watch for around baseball today:

1. Jesús Luzardo media availability:

Jesús Luzardo will speak with media members today for the first time since the Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Marlins. The left-hander was excellent in 2023 but struggled in 2024 before suffering a season-ending lumbar injury. He also spent a couple of weeks on the IL in April and May with tightness in his throwing elbow. However, the 27-year-old told reporters (including Christina De Nicola of MLB.com) earlier this winter that he has been able to perform his “normal offseason progression,” suggesting his elbow and back are “feeling really good.” Presumably, Luzardo will further discuss his health and offseason program with reporters from the Phillies beat this afternoon.

2. Craig Breslow to discuss Walker Buehler signing:

After coming to terms with free agent right-hander Walker Buehler last week, the Red Sox officially announced his one-year, $21.05MM contract over the weekend. Today, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will meet with reporters to take questions about Buehler (per Chris Cotillo of MassLive). Cotillo adds that there are currently no plans for the pitcher himself to hold an in-person press event.

Breslow is likely to address how Buehler will slot into a starting rotation that also includes Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and potentially/eventually Garrett Whitlock, Patrick Sandoval, and Quinn Priester. In addition, expect Breslow to answer questions about what comes next. He has made several moves to bolster Boston’s pitching staff this winter but next to nothing to upgrade the offense.

3. Free agent contracts yet to be finalized:

A handful of reported free agent deals from December have yet to be officially announced. Those include Paul Goldschmidt’s one-year, $12.5MM deal with the Yankees; Joc Pederson’s two-year, $37MM deal with the Rangers; Teoscar Hernández’s three-year, $66MM deal with the Dodgers; and Corbin Burnes’s six-year, $210MM deal with the Diamondbacks. While the Hernández and Burnes deals were reported relatively recently (Dec. 27 and Dec. 28, respectively), it’s been more than a week since Goldschmidt (Dec. 21) and Pederson (Dec. 23) agreed to terms with their new clubs. Barring any surprising developments, both deals will most likely be finalized imminently.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Sosa, Rangers, Urshela

By Nick Deeds | December 20, 2024 at 8:25am CDT

As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Slammin’ Sammy back at Wrigley?

Seven-time All-Star and 1998 NL MVP Sammy Sosa was one of baseball’s biggest stars over a 13-year stretch with the Cubs and is one of the most famous players to come out of the North Side in the past 40 years. You wouldn’t have known all that from taking a trip to Wrigley Field in the 20 years since he left the team following the 2004 season, however, as Sosa has been persona non grata on the North Side ever since he left the team due to his widely suspected use of steroids during his time in Chicago. Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts addressed the schism between his team and one of its biggest stars nearly seven years ago, telling fans and reporters at the 2018 Cubs Convention that “players from that era owe us a little bit of honesty” as noted by Jesse Rogers of ESPN at the time.

Sosa offered that bit of honesty in a statement yesterday (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy). Within a lengthier statement regarding his time with the Cubs and love for the fans/organization, Sosa stated: “There were times I did whatever I could to recover from injuries in an effort to keep my strength up to perform over 162 games. I never broke any laws, but in hindsight, I made mistakes and I apologize.”

Following that tacit acknowledgment and subsequent apology, Ricketts released a statement of his own, extending Sosa an invitation to the 2025 Cubs Convention, which takes place next month. Yesterday’s thaw in relations between the Cubs and one of the biggest stars in the club’s history should give longtime fans the opportunity to see Sosa back at Wrigley Field in the future as a guest of honor, just as has been the case for other former Cubs stars ranging from Jon Lester and Aramis Ramirez to Fergie Jenkins and Ryne Sandberg in recent years.

2. Rangers 40-man move incoming:

Yesterday, the Rangers made a move to add to their bullpen by agreeing to terms with southpaw Hoby Milner on a one-year deal. Milner, who posted a 3.44 ERA and 3.14 FIP with the Brewers over the past three seasons, offers Texas a solid relief option from the left side and helps to patch up a relief corps that has lost Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, and Kirby Yates to free agency this winter. Milner’s deal with the Rangers has not yet been made official, however, and before it can be the club will need to make room for the lefty on its 40-man roster.

That can be achieved simply by designating a player for assignment, and that’s how the vast majority of 40-man roster crunches are addressed. That said, teams will occasionally line up a small trade that allows them to free up 40-man space for an impending signing. More clarity on the Rangers’ roster should arrive sooner than later.

3. Urshela to West Sacramento?

The A’s and third baseman Gio Urshela reportedly agreed to a one-year deal yesterday. While the Athletics won’t need to make room for Urshela on their 40-man roster, the financial terms for the deal have not yet been reported. Those terms hold particular weight given the fact that the club needs to significantly ramp up payroll this winter in order to avoid a potential grievance from the MLBPA. They’ve made good headway in that goal by signing Luis Severino and swinging a trade for Jeffrey Springs already this winter, deals which have left them with $88.5MM on their luxury tax ledger according to RosterResource. Urshela’s deal should help push that figure further north, but likely not by much. He played last year on a $1.5MM salary and hit .250/.286/.361 between Detroit and Atlanta.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Astros, Sasaki, Contreras

By Nick Deeds | December 19, 2024 at 8:48am CDT

As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. What’s next for the Astros?

The Astros are one week removed from a franchise-altering trade that shipped star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs in exchange for a package of three players, including All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes. Even with Paredes in the fold, Houston not only remains in the market for Alex Bregman — they also reportedly made a push to acquire Nolan Arenado from the Cardinals only for Arenado to block the deal with his no-trade clause.

Had Houston successfully brought in Arenado, it seems likely they would’ve moved Paredes over to first base. That remains a possibility for the club if they re-sign Bregman or Arenado can be convinced to waive his no-trade clause at some point down the line, but it also seems possible that the club could turn to Paredes at third and target first base help such as longtime Diamondbacks slugger Christian Walker, to whom they’ve been connected in free agency and in the lead-up to the 2024 trade deadline.

2. Sasaki scheduling meetings with teams?

Yankees GM Brian Cashman revealed to reporters (including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic) yesterday that his club has been granted an in-person meeting with star NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki, who was posted for MLB clubs during the Winter Meetings and figures to sign with a team as an international amateur next month. Until Sasaki makes his decision sometime after the international amateur free agency window for 2025 opens on January 15, he’ll be heavily courted by the majority of the league, given the unique circumstances of his free agency.

3. Contreras resolution imminent:

When the Rangers landed right-handers Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob Webb in free agency last week, that left the club in need of a 40-man roster spot. They chose to designate right-hander Roansy Contreras for assignment, which gave them a seven-day window in which they could either work out a trade involving Contreras or attempt to pass him through waivers. That window is set to expire today, meaning an announcement regarding Contreras’s future should be imminent. (Since waivers take 48 hours, which are included in that weeklong window, it seems Contreras is already on waivers.)

The 25-year-old hurler was once a consensus top-100 prospect with the Pirates and looked like at least a solid back-of-the-rotation arm as recently as 2022, when he posted a 3.79 ERA in 95 innings. A disastrous 2023 season caused him to move to the bullpen, however, and since then he’s profiled more as a middle reliever as he’s moved from Pittsburgh to Anaheim to Arlington. Now, Contreras may find himself on the move again if he’s claimed off waivers by another club. Should he clear waivers, the Rangers would have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues as non-roster depth for the 2025 season.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Fried, Yankees, Arbitration

By Nick Deeds | December 18, 2024 at 8:51am CDT

As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Fried presser today:

The Yankees made their latest major signing official yesterday when they announced the addition of southpaw Max Fried on an eight-year deal. The club will hold an introductory press conference for Fried at noon ET today. Fried and GM Brian Cashman both figure to be in attendance to take questions from the media. Fried, 30, has been among the best pitchers in the sport by ERA since his breakout season in 2020 with a 2.81 figure that trails only Brandon Woodruff and Clayton Kershaw among starters in that time. Fried figures to join longtime ace Gerrit Cole at the front of the Yankees’ rotation as the club attempts to retool its AL pennant-winning roster in the aftermath of Juan Soto heading to Queens.

2. What’s next for the Yankees?

Speaking of the Yankees’ retooling process, they took another step in that direction yesterday when they traded for Cody Bellinger in a salary dump deal with the Cubs that cost them nothing other than Triple-A swingman Cody Poteet. Bellinger’s coming off a relative down season (109 wRC+) in 2024 but was top-ten in NL MVP voting the year prior after a resurgent campaign. Currently, Bellinger appears to be ticketed for regular playing time in center field with the Yankees, but it’s possible that could change depending on the readiness of top prospect Jasson Dominguez (who played left field in a 2024 cup of coffee but has spent the bulk of his career in center) and the club’s free agent pursuits. Signing a corner outfield bat like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez could push Bellinger to first base, while adding a first baseman like Josh Naylor, Christian Walker, or Paul Goldschmidt would leave Bellinger as a regular on the outfield grass.

3. Arbitration deals:

Yesterday, the Royals avoided arbitration with right-hander Kyle Wright by agreeing to a $1.8MM salary for the 2025 season. Players and teams came to a number of similar deals in advance of the non-tender deadline last month, but teams will need to reach agreements with (or face arbitration hearings against) the rest of their eligible players before the arbitration filing deadline on January 9. While players and teams can agree to deals after that date to avoid arbitration, MLB clubs have increasingly adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration where they stop negotiations on one-year arbitration contracts once the deadline to file has passed. With just three weeks until said deadline, there ought to be several other players agreeing to salaries for the upcoming season in the days and weeks ahead (with a particular rush on that Jan. 9 filing day itself). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected arbitration salaries for all 272 arbitration-eligible players back in October, although many of those names have been non-tendered or otherwise removed from the 40-man roster since that time.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Luzardo, Baddoo, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 17, 2024 at 8:41am CDT

As the Hot Stove continues to simmer following a busy Winter Meetings week, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Could a Luzardo deal be in the works?

The overwhelming majority of teams are at least ostensibly trying to contend in 2024, leaving precious few rebuilding teams who can be expected to trade established players for prospects this winter. The Marlins are among the few clear sellers, and they’re seemingly open for business regarding their established players not named Sandy Alcantara. They already dealt infielder Jake Burger to the Rangers during the Winter Meetings, and now it appears left-hander Jesus Luzardo could be the next player Miami deals away. The Cubs are reportedly making a push to acquire the southpaw.

It’s not clear if a deal between the sides is close or if there are any other Luzardo suitors in active talks with the Fish, but adding Luzardo would give a Chicago team that already swung a trade for star outfielder Kyle Tucker an upside arm to pair with fellow lefties Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga, likely slotting in ahead of Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd in the starting five. Luzardo struggled in 2024, making just 12 starts due to lumbar issues and pitching to a 5.00 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound. However, he’s among the hardest-throwing lefties in the sport and is just one year removed from posting a 3.58 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate in 32 starts in 2023.

2. Baddoo resolution imminent:

A resolution regarding the future of Tigers outfielder Akil Baddoo is expected today. Baddoo was designated for assignment by Detroit last week to create 40-man space for freshly-signed righty Alex Cobb, giving them one week to either trade Baddoo or attempt to pass him through waivers. That one week window expires today, so it should soon be apparent whether or not he’s headed to a new team. Baddoo, a former Rule 5 pick by the Tigers, impressed during his rookie season in 2021 with above-average numbers at the plate but has hit just .203/.292/.328 in the majors across the last three seasons. Any acquiring team would be on the hook to offer Baddoo a contract via arbitration in 2025, which projections from MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to land at $1.6MM.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the Winter Meetings behind us, the offseason is in full swing with 16 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents off the board. Whether you have questions about who your favorite team will be targeting this winter or a trade proposal in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Bellinger, Astros, A’s

By Nick Deeds | December 16, 2024 at 8:49am CDT

As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. What will the Cubs do with Bellinger?

The biggest news of the weekend was the Cubs and Astros completing a blockbuster deal that sent outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago. While the deal added a bona fide star bat to the lineup on the north side, the trade also stands to further complicate the club’s outfield logjam. While it’s at least theoretically possible that the Cubs could push Michael Busch to third base and start Bellinger at first, Busch has not shown himself to be capable of handling the hot corner and the Cubs have top prospect Matt Shaw seemingly poised to take over the position as soon as Opening Day 2025.

What’s more, Chicago was reportedly “determined” to move either Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki even before adding Tucker to the mix. Now that Tucker is in the fold, it’s nearly impossible to imagine the club not dealing Bellinger (or, at least, another hitter) before Opening Day. The Yankees have been the team by far most frequently connected to Bellinger, but it appears the two sides could be in a standoff regarding the financial terms of a trade.

2. What’s next for the Astros?

On the other side of the trade, the Astros landed a haul of talent in exchange for Tucker. Isaac Paredes seems poised to take over for Alex Bregman at third base should Bregman sign elsewhere in free agency, while Hayden Wesneski bolsters the club’s rotation depth and Cam Smith immediately became the Astros’ consensus top prospect. Questions still remain regarding the club’s plans for the remainder of the offseason even aside from the possibility of a Framber Valdez trade. They’ll need to add to the outfield after losing Tucker, and finding help at first base will be necessary as well. If Bregman were to return to Houston or if the Astros were to acquire Nolan Arenado, Paredes could slide over to first. Barring that, it’s possible the club could pursue a hitter such as Christian Walker, in whom they’ve previously shown interest.

3. A’s continue making moves:

The nomadic Athletics have continued to make moves in the aftermath of their departure from Oakland, following up their signing of right-hander Luis Severino with a trade for lefty Jeffrey Springs this weekend. The club’s recent moves have added a hefty amount of payroll to the A’s ledger, though the club figures to add even more talent to the roster (and money to the books) as they look to avoid a potential grievance from the players’ union regarding their use (or lack thereof) of revenue sharing dollars.

A’s GM David Forst indicated that while an additional rotation arm to pair with Severino and Springs could be in the cards, the club is currently hoping to add a third baseman. While it would be a shock to see a player like Bregman decide to spend the next few years in West Sacramento, there are a number of lower-level options like Jorge Polanco or Yoan Moncada who could find the promise of everyday playing time with the A’s attractive. A trade for Philadelphia’s Alec Bohm would also add an established bat and bump the payroll a bit further north, and the acquisitions of Severino and Springs would make it easier for the A’s to deal some optionable rotation depth.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Eovaldi, Cubs, SP Market

By Nick Deeds | December 13, 2024 at 8:18am CDT

With the Winter Meetings now behind us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Eovaldi presser:

The Rangers officially re-signed right-hander Nathan Eovaldi yesterday on a three-year deal worth $75MM. Today, both Eovaldi and Texas president of baseball operations Chris Young will be available to the media at a press conference that’s scheduled for 11am CT. Even after landing Eovaldi (and trading for infielder Jake Burger), Young has his work cut out for him this winter as he tries to facilitate a rebound from an 84-loss 2024 campaign while also ducking under the first luxury tax threshold of $241MM. At the very least, a bullpen that lost Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, and Kirby Yates to free agency last month will need to be addressed. Besides that, there’s been some indications the club could look to add a left-handed slugger like Joc Pederson.

2. Cubs in the thick of trade talks?

The Cubs find themselves in an interesting position on the trade market, operating as both buyers and sellers. That’s hardly an unusual reality in an offseason where few teams are explicitly rebuilding, but what makes Chicago’s situation notable is that both sides of those trade talks seemingly revolve around one position: right field. Ian Happ is entrenched as the club’s everyday left fielder, while dynamic rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong has staked his claim as the club’s center fielder of the future. That leaves Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki vying for playing time in right. Down the stretch last year, Chicago utilized Bellinger’s superior glove and put Suzuki at DH, but the club has spent the winter aggressively shopping Bellinger and his $27.5MM salary.

Dealing Bellinger has long made sense for the Cubs if they can manage it. Suzuki has expressed a preference for playing the outfield as opposed to serving as a full-time DH, and the Cubs have a number of up-and-coming prospects like Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara for whom a trade of Bellinger could open up playing time. All those reasons for entertaining a Bellinger trade have only served to make recent reports that Chicago is among the more aggressive suitors for Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker more surprising. Tucker would immediately become the most talented hitter in the Cubs lineup but comes with only one year of team control. The situation becomes even trickier to navigate for the Cubs when one considers that the Yankees are simultaneously the team most connected to Bellinger and a candidate to land Tucker themselves. Could the weekend bring movement on either front?

3. Will the hot SP market spur trades?

It’s no secret that the market for starting pitching has been extremely robust. Every one of the nine pitchers featured on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list has signed for more money than predicted, although some such as Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi did so only nominally. In any case, that strong demand for pitching led a great many clubs to become involved in the bidding for now-former White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet, who was dealt to the Red Sox as the Winter Meetings came to a close.

Could that hot market for pitching change the plans of teams with starters they could dangle? The Mariners have long indicated that they have no interest in dealing from their rotation this winter but have received an increasing volume of calls about veteran righty Luis Castillo. Meanwhile, the Padres are at least entertaining the possibility of trading Dylan Cease. Even the Pirates have seemingly expressed willingness to consider offers on their talented young arsenal of pitchers (though Paul Skenes is obviously off limits). Will any of those teams deal from their rotation? Will other teams join them in considering deals from their own rotations?

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The Opener: Bregman, Soto, Adames

By Nick Deeds | December 12, 2024 at 8:20am CDT

With the Winter Meetings behind us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. All eyes on Bregman?

After a frenzy of rumors and action at the Winter Meetings, MLB’s hot stove season will continue chugging along even with agents and executives having departed Dallas yesterday. According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, infielder Alex Bregman could be the next major domino to fall on the free agent market. Feinsand notes that the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers are among the teams “in the mix” for Bregman’s services. Among those options, the Astros are known to have made an offer to Bregman in the vicinity of six years and $156MM prior to the Winter Meetings, though at the time reports indicated Bregman was hoping to land a contract north of $200MM. Meanwhile, Bregman is an apparently divisive target in the eyes of Boston brass as Alex Cora and Sam Kennedy are reportedly more intrigued than chief baseball officer Craig Breslow at the idea of pursuing Bregman. The Red Sox reportedly envision Bregman at second base if signed, a position he has expressed willingness to play despite a lack of experience at the position in the majors.

2. Soto presser:

After the Mets officially signed Juan Soto to the biggest contract in professional sports history yesterday, Brian McGrath of MLB.com writes that the club is expected to formally introduce Soto in a press conference slated for 3pm ET this afternoon that will also feature club owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns. The press conference could shed some additional light on a free agent process that captivated the baseball world in the weeks leading up to the Winter Meetings as well as the next steps Mets brass have planned. The club will likely add at least one more starter to their rotation, and Stearns recently stated that they’d “love” to reunite with first baseman Pete Alonso as well.

3. Adames presser:

While the Soto presser may get more buzz, he’s not the only top free agent being introduced by his new team via press conference today. As noted by MLB.com, the Giants are poised to introduce shortstop Willy Adames in a press conference scheduled for 11:30am PT. Newly-minted president of baseball operations Buster Posey will surely be on hand to discuss the first major free agent signing of his tenure and possibly to discuss the club’s next steps. The Giants are regarded as a top candidate to land top free agent starter Corbin Burnes, although they face competition from the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and incumbent Orioles. Beyond that, the club was among the teams said to be interested in Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker yesterday. That suggests a willingness to pursue star-caliber talent in both trade and free agency as they look for more ways to improve the club this winter after a disappointing 80-82 finish in 2024.

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The Opener: Rule 5 Draft, Yankees, Rangers

By Nick Deeds | December 11, 2024 at 8:57am CDT

As the Winter Meetings enters its final stretch today, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. 2024 Rule 5 Draft:

Baseball’s annual Rule 5 Draft is scheduled to take place at 1pm CT this afternoon. International players and high school draft picks who signed in 2019 and college draft picks signed in 2020 who have not yet been added to their club’s 40-man roster are vulnerable in today’s draft, where any club can select them for a $100K fee. If the player does not stick on their new club’s 26-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to his original club for $50K. Teams must have open space on their 40-man roster to select a player in the draft, meaning the Tigers and Red Sox would each need to clear space on their 40-man roster before the draft begins in order to participate.

Players selected in the Rule 5 draft occasionally go on to impact their team in the future, as free agent outfielder Anthony Santander famously did following his selection in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft. Red Sox right-hander Justin Slaten, A’s right-hander Mitch Spence, and Padres right-hander Stephen Kolek are among last year’s picks who remained with their new organization through the entire 2024 season, with Slaten in particular featuring prominently in Boston’s late-inning mix. Will a similarly valuable diamond in the rough be unearthed today?

2. Yankees pivot away from Soto:

The Yankees started their pivot away from Juan Soto yesterday in a big way when they agreed to an eight-year deal with left-hander Max Fried. The deal is the largest in MLB history for a left-handed starting pitcher, and every indication is that the hot stove will stay active in the Bronx going forward. The club has been connected to first baseman Christian Walker, third baseman Alex Bregman, and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez among others in free agency, while potential trade candidates include White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet, Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker, and Cubs first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. The club’s reported interest in Crochet came before they landed Fried, but each of those hitters still seems to be a reasonably possible target for the Yankees as they look to rebuild their lineup without Soto.

3. What’s next for the Rangers?

The Rangers checked the biggest box of their offseason yesterday by agreeing to a deal that would bring right-hander Nathan Eovaldi back into the fold. That wasn’t the club’s only move last night, either, as they followed it up by acquiring infielder Jake Burger from the Marlins for a package of three prospects. With limited payroll space available as the club seeks to duck under the luxury tax this winter, could the acquisition of Burger prompt Texas to deal a hitter such as first baseman Nathaniel Lowe in order to free up additional dollars for pitching help? Barring to clear payroll, Chris Young’s front office will need to get creative in order to rebuild a bullpen that’s lost Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, and Kirby Yates to free agency while also adding additional starting depth.

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The Opener: Draft Lottery, Sasaki, Kelly

By Nick Deeds | December 10, 2024 at 8:11am CDT

As the Winter Meetings continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. 2025 Draft Lottery:

The primary highlight of Day 2 of the Winter Meetings today figures to be the 2025 draft lottery, which is scheduled to take place at 4:30pm CT this afternoon. The top six spots in next year’s draft will be decided by tonight’s lottery. The Rockies and Marlins are tied for the best odds at landing this year’s top pick with a 22.45% chance, while the Angels (17.96%) and Nationals (10.2%) are the only other teams with at least a 10% chance of landing the first overall pick. That’s not to say it’s impossible for another team to land it, however; the Guardians did so just last year despite just a 2% chance of their name being selected for the top pick. Every team that missed the playoffs in 2024 except for the Athletics and White Sox are eligible for tonight’s lottery.

2. Sasaki officially posted:

The long-awaited posting of NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki finally arrived yesterday, kicking off a 45-day window where he’ll be able to negotiate with MLB teams. Although clubs are now able to negotiate with Sasaki, it’s widely expected that he won’t actually sign with a club for quite some time. As an international player under the age of 25, Sasaki is considered an amateur by MLB and therefore subject to the league’s restrictions on international amateurs. That not only means that the righty can only sign for whatever teams are willing to offer him from their international bonus pools, but also that he’ll be ineligible to sign between December 15, when the 2024 international signing window closes, and January 15, when the 2025 international signing window opens.

Reporting to this point has suggested that Sasaki intends to sign during the 2025 period, meaning that the majority of his posting window will be occupied by time during which he’ll be able to meet and negotiate with teams but not actually be eligible to put pen to paper. Even so, the long-awaited free agency of a rare star-caliber talent for whom money won’t be the deciding factor should make for one of the more interest storylines of the offseason going forward, as all 30 clubs and their fans can at least theoretically dream on Sasaki choosing to sign with them.

3. Cubs, Kelly nearing deal?

Yesterday afternoon, reports emerged that the Cubs and free agent catcher Carson Kelly were close to an agreement on a deal. There’s been no word of progress on a deal since then, but it would be quite unusual for a deal to reach that stage and be reported on without eventually coming to fruition. It’s possible that more information regarding where things stand between the Cubs and Kelly will become available as soon as today, though it wouldn’t be a shock if the deal didn’t become official for a few days after an agreement is reached and terms are reported. That’s been the case with several free agents this winter, including Chicago’s own two-year deal with southpaw Matthew Boyd that was made official over the weekend.

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    Tyler Mahle To Be Sidelined Beyond Trade Deadline

    Reds Release Jeimer Candelario

    Dave Parker Passes Away

    Griffin Canning Diagnosed With Ruptured Achilles

    Pirates Reportedly Have Very Few Untouchable Players At Trade Deadline

    Griffin Canning Believed To Have Suffered Achilles Injury

    Mariners Looking For Corner Infield Bats; Ownership Willing To Bump Payroll

    Wander Franco Found Guilty Of Sexual Abuse

    Mariners Place Rowdy Tellez On Release Waivers

    Max Meyer To Undergo Season-Ending Hip Surgery

    Whit Merrifield Announces Retirement

    White Sox Sign Noah Syndergaard To Minor League Deal

    Corbin Carroll Placed On IL With Wrist Fracture

    Hoops Rumors Has The Latest On NBA Draft, Free Agency

    Mets Option Francisco Alvarez

    Reds To Promote Chase Burns For MLB Debut

    A.J. Puk Undergoes Elbow Surgery; Gabriel Moreno Diagnosed With Fractured Finger

    Recent

    Orioles Select Jacob Stallings, Designate Emmanuel Rivera For Assignment

    Rockies Designate Sam Hilliard For Assignment, Select Austin Nola

    Rangers Select Billy McKinney, Transfer Tyler Mahle To 60-Day IL

    Marlins Claim Nick Nastrini

    Giants Exercise 2026 Option On Manager Bob Melvin

    Poll: What Will The Twins Do At The Deadline?

    Brewers Select Anthony Seigler, Designate Daz Cameron For Assignment

    Reds Select Sam Benschoter

    Michael Fulmer Elects Free Agency

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